Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

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Dekes For Days

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What the absolute max they can give Marner without trading anyone away? Keeping in mind that there will most likely be injuries and they will have to run a roster that is smaller than 23. Ive asked this question several times but it seems like no one has an answer. Any cap whizzes want to step up?
If the Leafs ran a 20-man roster, and Marner signed before the regular season started, the absolute most the Leafs could offer without moving somebody is about 11.5m, though the realities of making that work are probably a bit unrealistic.
 
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Dekes For Days

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Also, @Throw More Waffles , all of these comparisons have been explained to you countless times. Nylander vs. his comparables (including Pastrnak like 5 different times). Matthews vs. his comparables (like 10+ of them at this point, modern and historical). Marner vs. his comparables (including the Rantanen comparison multiple times). If you calmed down and stopped screaming your head off over non-problems, you would see that there is consistency in all of those comparisons and what they got/will get.

The problem is that you choose to selectively dismiss the information that shows why they got those contracts. You hear an explanation of a factor for one player that separates them in some way from the comparable being presented, and then you claim that that is the only thing that can be considered in all contracts. You try to apply it as the sole factor for other contracts and ignore the context that is explained to you, and when everything obviously doesn't perfectly align based around one select factor for all players, you start screaming about inconsistencies.

There are many things that enter into the final value of a contract. Many comparables. Your attempt to boil everything down to a simple one-factor, one-comparable analysis is why you are having the trouble you are.

Both Matthews and Nylander fit well within their comparables, and Marner will too. In many important statistics, they even exceed them. If you were truly here to learn more and understand instead of being here to antagonize people, you would go back and read through the pages and pages of multiple threads where this is extensively explained.
 

Havoc

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Let's also add that Nylander makes 6.96 over 5.6 nhl seasons. Over the full 6 seasons, his cap hit would be 7.5


Why do you people like to spread nonsense about the Nylander contract? He wouldn't have had a cap hit of 7.5 over 6 full seasons.

The 45 million total comes from an inflated year 1. This is standard and will apply to every single RFA that holds out and misses regular season games. The longer they hold out, the larger the inflated year 1 cap hit and less of that total amount they actually get.

It doesn't mean you can conclude that player x would have had a cap hit of y dollars over the entire duration of the contract if they never held out. That inflated total doesn't even exist if there isn't a holdout unless Leafs truly gave him 45 / 6...but we fully just witnessed Nylander miss 1/3 of the season because of a contract dispute, so it's safe to assume the Leafs would never sign him to a 7.5 cap hit.

Leafs had the cap space to wait out Nylander until he accepted the ~7 mil cap hit.

The lesson to take from the Nylander contract is that the Leafs and Marner are both screwed the longer this contract "slog" lasts because we don't have real cap space ...we have ugly LTIR reserves this time around.


You really need to let this Nylander contract go already. You've been on it all summer when all signs point to it being a discount soon.
 

Nithoniniel

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Nylanders strength was points not goals. So in comparison to Pastrnak, goals are barely mentioned as a side note. It's apparently all about "ppg".
That's an extremely disingenuous way to interpret my points. I said that goals were a modifier, I never said to which extent. That you added yourself for your spin, and as such, I'm not bothering to read the rest of your post. Good day.
 

weems

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Why do you people like to spread nonsense about the Nylander contract? He wouldn't have had a cap hit of 7.5 over 6 full seasons.

The 45 million total comes from an inflated year 1. This is standard and will apply to every single RFA that holds out and misses regular season games. The longer they hold out, the larger the inflated year 1 cap hit and less of that total amount they actually get.

It doesn't mean you can conclude that player x would have had a cap hit of y dollars over the entire duration of the contract if they never held out. That inflated total doesn't even exist if there isn't a holdout unless Leafs truly gave him 45 / 6...but we fully just witnessed Nylander miss 1/3 of the season because of a contract dispute, so it's safe to assume the Leafs would never sign him to a 7.5 cap hit.

Leafs had the cap space to wait out Nylander until he accepted the ~7 mil cap hit.

The lesson to take from the Nylander contract is that the Leafs and Marner are both screwed the longer this contract "slog" lasts because we don't have real cap space ...we have ugly LTIR reserves this time around.


You really need to let this Nylander contract go already. You've been on it all summer when all signs point to it being a discount soon.

There's a group of Leaf fans that honestly hate Nylander and would trade him tomorrow for 20 cents on the dollar.

From the way he plays. The fact he's a european. The fact he held out.

Just a perfect trifecta for some to develop a massive bias against him.

Both he and Matthews get roasted often around here whereas you dont see anywhere close to that with Tavares or Marner.

Easiest example is Matthews playoffs in 17/18 vs the Bruins compared to Tavares 18/19 playoffs vs the Bruins.

Both guys had underwhelming series but one guy was ripped all offseason for it while there wasnt much of a peep about the other guys showing.

I just read that Matthews/ASU thread and theres actually people who want to see him traded in a few years :confused:

Once you really learn about bias, confirmation bias and agenda's......It really changes the way you see things.
 

18leafsfan18

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There's a group of Leaf fans that honestly hate Nylander and would trade him tomorrow for 20 cents on the dollar.

From the way he plays. The fact he's a european. The fact he held out.

Just a perfect trifecta for some to develop a massive bias against him.

Both he and Matthews get roasted often around here whereas you dont see anywhere close to that with Tavares or Marner.

Easiest example is Matthews playoffs in 17/18 vs the Bruins compared to Tavares 18/19 playoffs vs the Bruins.

Both guys had underwhelming series but one guy was ripped all offseason for it while there wasnt much of a peep about the other guys showing.

I just read that Matthews/ASU thread and theres actually people who want to see him traded in a few years :confused:

Once you really learn about bias, confirmation bias and agenda's......It really changes the way you see things.

Unfortunately I think you are right about the reasons people hate on Nylander and Matthews. Saw it with JVR and Kessel too.

Likley the same group that hates Dubas because he is 33 years old.
 

hullsy47

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Unfortunately I think you are right about the reasons people hate on Nylander and Matthews. Saw it with JVR and Kessel too.

Likley the same group that hates Dubas because he is 33 years old.
Nylander may be the key peice to hold this club together if marner holds out
On pace even for 65 points will ease the pain
The hate should go to marner and his camp
No other ORGANIZATION has bent over backwards for their RFA
HE wants his cake and eat it too
Its pretty obvious if he accepted a crazy offer sheet he wont accept it
Just grow up son tell your dad your old enuff to shave
 

weems

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33 years old!!!! Gaah i missed that , but now i have a boatload of hate coming his way! :sarcasm:

Thats a seriously sad reason for hate.

Yep but its actually a common thing amongst many older people.

They have lived their entire life a certain way so when something New/Different comes along, they usually dont like it.

Him being extremely young and also being heavy into analytics drives some people nuts.

His vision and ideas of how a team should be built/play go against the views of many long time hockey watchers and it triggers them.
 

PromisedLand

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FWIW, he thinks Marner is like our Toews. PP's, PK's, etc...

"Can put him in any situation and he excels". Not so sure that is true but to each their own... Marner has not had too many "tough" situations in the NHL unless you count doing all of them with Tavares. Otherwise he was usually leading a line with Bozak and JvR in pure offensive situations, and wasn't always a star doing it. I don't think he realizes how good of a player Matthews actually is.

False. Marner played against oppositions’ top lines with Kadri a year prior
 
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PromisedLand

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I thought he had signed at least a year earlier and broke out after he signed?

Are you saying Boston GM had the foresight while Dubas is still learning how to tie shoe laces as NHL GM?

Dubas fanboys will be attacking in 3...2...1...

P.S. I agree with your assessment
 
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ToneDog

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Yep but its actually a common thing amongst many older people.

They have lived their entire life a certain way so when something New/Different comes along, they usually dont like it.

Him being extremely young and also being heavy into analytics drives some people nuts.

His vision and ideas of how a team should be built/play go against the views of many long time hockey watchers and it triggers them.

For me it is more the contracts he has doled out to Nylander and Matthews and that the team is soft as butter , but you can believe what you want to believe.
 

Nineteen67

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Dubois should refuse to negotiate until Money Mitch fires Paul and Ferris.

Good idea. And, while they’re breaking CBA rules they may as well pay players through a different company so it doesn’t affect the cap.
 

hullsy47

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Are you saying Boston GM had the foresight will Dubas is still learning how to tie shoe laces as NHL GM?

Dubas fanboys will be attacking in 3...2...1...

P.S. I agree with your assessment
Anybody who thinks dubas got Full autonomy with contracts are wrong
Everything has shanahans blessing and Shanahan sells the board that he knows what hes doing
In sure leafs ownership has a clue about what's going on
If ferris was negotiating with Larry tanenbaum s legal council directly he be ripped to shreds by now
 

PromisedLand

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Marner will not back down because he knows how much the stars aligned for him.

League scoring was inflated all to **** this year and a lot of guys were putting up numbers they had no business putting up. We haven't had a 120+ point scorer in ages and all of a sudden we got 2 (McDavid woulda got it, and Kucherov damn near got 130), Johnathon Toews broke a PPG for the first time in his career (full year), you got a guy like Huberdeau by god's grace manage to get over 90 points, there was 14 (!!!) 90+ point scorers this year, and it was just anomalies across the freaking board.

Here's the hilarious thing: Dubas is not adjusting for this blatant inflation in league scoring. We're 2 years removed from there being a grand total of 1 guy who cracked 90 points (McDavid, and many were very close don't get me wrong). The league pay scale will be thrown completely out of whack if these RFA's get what they're demanding. But make no mistake about it, there are a few teams who refuse to pay the ridiculous inflation (Canes with Aho).

Bergevin helped Canes IMO
 

Bomber0104

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Yep but its actually a common thing amongst many older people.

They have lived their entire life a certain way so when something New/Different comes along, they usually dont like it.

Him being extremely young and also being heavy into analytics drives some people nuts.

His vision and ideas of how a team should be built/play go against the views of many long time hockey watchers and it triggers them.

Interesting viewpoint Sigmund Freud.

Now what about the people that are younger than him and don't like his management of the team?
 
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PromisedLand

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Anybody who thinks dubas got Full autonomy with contracts are wrong
Everything has shanahans blessing and Shanahan sells the board that he knows what hes doing
In sure leafs ownership has a clue about what's going on
If ferris was negotiating with Larry tanenbaum s legal council directly he be ripped to shreds by now

With nylander and Matthews fiasco; Shanny taking active role in negotiations

Dubas and Ferris had a deal done and Shanny scrapped the deal

Not a vote of confidence for Dubas when it comes to high profile players contract negotiatons
 
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Madap

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I don't for even the slightest of seconds believe that another team would have offered Matthews 11.6x5, AS WELL AS give up 4 first round picks.

Every other star player seems to sign at/around market value, and the "offer sheet threat" was just as applicable to them.

Sure, like Dubas, some gm's give out horrible contracts sometimes. But those contracts are usually universally panned, and those gm's typically don't last long.
I think there’s a chance that a team goes and offersheets Matthews for a ton of money. We just don’t know. But that really limits the amount of options Dubas has to improve other areas of the team since he has to ensure he has enough cap to deal with marner and Matthews. It would have been a terrible situation to get to this point with Matthews and marner unsigned. Overpaying Matthews a little bit is not that bad.

Compare the overpayments to other teams in the league. Every single other team has far worse overpayments and they still find ways to win. It’s way better to overpay your star players who play a ton and have a large impact on the game, vs some plug. Dubas knows this and hasn’t overpaid anyone else yet. He won’t make the mistake of doing that. If the leafs don’t win, it’s not because they overpaid Matthews marner and nylander by a combined 3-4 million or whatever.
 

ULF_55

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Yep but its actually a common thing amongst many older people.

They have lived their entire life a certain way so when something New/Different comes along, they usually dont like it.

Him being extremely young and also being heavy into analytics drives some people nuts.

His vision and ideas of how a team should be built/play go against the views of many long time hockey watchers and it triggers them.

If only that was true we'd see a better world, unfortunately being a model 55, I've lived through the changes and thought we were making progress.

I've learned it isn't age that determines whether change is embraced it is personality and the internal person that exists within everyone.

I thought we were making progress the politics around the world tells me it isn't age.

We were duped:
 

18leafsfan18

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Are you saying Boston GM had the foresight while Dubas is still learning how to tie shoe laces as NHL GM?

Dubas fanboys will be attacking in 3...2...1...

P.S. I agree with your assessment

You say that the Boston GM had foresight and his player outplayed their contract.

In the same post you suggest Dubas doesn't have foresight, when the contracts he has signed haven't even played a season into the contract to see if they outplay the contract.

With the exception of Nylander, who came in late (If this is your only argument, it's pretty thin).

You literally contradict yourself within a single post. Nice job.
 
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Nineteen67

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Leafs always have my support. Pretty awesome how we've drafted all this elite talent and we can't even ****ing get one to sign for max term and none of them refuse to leave even one penny on the table.

Is this all just some unfortunate coincidence or is there something out there that just makes these kids hate Toronto and want to milk the team?

Toronto is a hard place to play. These guys visit the other cities and talk to players around the league.....
 

ACC1224

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Yep but its actually a common thing amongst many older people.

They have lived their entire life a certain way so when something New/Different comes along, they usually dont like it.

Him being extremely young and also being heavy into analytics drives some people nuts.

His vision and ideas of how a team should be built/play go against the views of many long time hockey watchers and it triggers them.
It seem many more blindly love him for that reason.
Thankfully there is a large group of us in the middle that judge players/management on what they bring and nothing more.
 
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