Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[Mr Hockey]

Greg Wyshysnki joined Sportsnet Today to talk about Mitch Marner’s contract talks with the Toronto Maple Leafs and the latest development regarding the Zurich Lions.

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you guys keep posting up some medias guys opinion or conversations and then all you guys lose your shit over it, you guys trapped yourselves in a vicious circle

 

[TheProspector]

Is there any evidence at all that Darren Ferris's clownery has any efficacy at all?

Contracts by Agent | Puckpedia

Taylor Hall at $6m per. Athanasiou at $3m. Bennett at $2.55. Josh Anderson at $1.855. And every one of those guys goes through the same bullshit playbook, including the European deal. As if any of his clients would risk getting injured for $500k swiss francs. Marner's career earnings are going to be well over $100m, assuming he doesn't get injured... it's the stupidest threat imaginable to say that he'd risk that to play in Europe instead of even a lowball 1y Leafs offer.

 

[Marshy]

Sign him to a 1 year, instruct Babcock to not play him, tank his value, ruin his career. More fun option to me. Done with this punk.

Keyser Sose has got nothing on you.

 

[MyBudJT]

Is there any evidence at all that Darren Ferris's clownery has any efficacy at all?

Contracts by Agent | Puckpedia

Taylor Hall at $6m per. Athanasiou at $3m. Bennett at $2.55. Josh Anderson at $1.855. And every one of those guys goes through the same bull**** playbook, including the European deal. As if any of his clients would risk getting injured for $500k swiss francs. Marner's career earnings are going to be well over $100m, assuming he doesn't get injured... it's the stupidest threat imaginable to say that he'd risk that to play in Europe instead of even a lowball 1y Leafs offer.

How are we supposed to take your opinions seriously, when you don't even have your facts right. Ferris wasn't Hall's agent for that 6M contract.

 

[IPS]

Marner will not back down because he knows how much the stars aligned for him.

League scoring was inflated all to shit this year and a lot of guys were putting up numbers they had no business putting up. We haven't had a 120+ point scorer in ages and all of a sudden we got 2 (McDavid woulda got it, and Kucherov damn near got 130), Johnathon Toews broke a PPG for the first time in his career (full year), you got a guy like Huberdeau by god's grace manage to get over 90 points, there was 14 (!!!) 90+ point scorers this year, and it was just anomalies across the freaking board.

Here's the hilarious thing: Dubas is not adjusting for this blatant inflation in league scoring. We're 2 years removed from there being a grand total of 1 guy who cracked 90 points (McDavid, and many were very close don't get me wrong). The league pay scale will be thrown completely out of whack if these RFA's get what they're demanding. But make no mistake about it, there are a few teams who refuse to pay the ridiculous inflation (Canes with Aho).

 

[Throw More Waffles]

My guess at this point is that the leafs and Marner have agreed to 10.5 million (the precise amount of Clarkson/Horton ltir).

It's term that's holding everything back.

Leafs are probably holding firm to 8 years. Marner as low as 4.

Right before camp they'll meet in the middle at 10.5x6.

 

[IPS]

My guess at this point is that the leafs and Marner have agreed to 10.5 million (the precise amount of Clarkson/Horton ltir).

It's term that's holding everything back.

Leafs are probably holding firm to 8 years. Marner as low as 4.

Right before camp they'll meet in the middle at 10.5x6.

I think it'll be 10.5 x 5.

Savage overpayment to say the least.

 

[Flipwon]

Nothing to see here folks.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

I'm all for the free market. Get what you can man. Greed is good. All that sort of mushy, glorious stuff. So Marner trying to bend the Leafs over a barrel is what it is. There is a risk though, that might not have been the same for others.

As a playmaker, you rely on the sniper. A sniper will score, no matter who he plays with. Set up men aren't viewed the same, especially wingers. Snipers will always get paid, set up men don't always if they can't find the goal scorer to play with.

So, if and when Marner sits out this year, and Tavares continues to score as he did last, year, or even drops to a 30 goal scorer, which is where most though he would be, Marner most likely gets traded and takes a major drop in salary that he could receive now.

Worse. If Leafs also start hot and roll along without him. It's one of the big reasons I never understood why Nylander was signed when the team was doing so well without him. I don't think Dubas will make the same mistake again.

So, in the end, if it's a either/or scenario, Marner is at the mercy of how the team and his linemates perform without him. If they perform as they can, I'm sending Marner packing and passing the headache to someone else.

Yes, it's a business. He should make what the market will bear, not a penny more. I would love to see an overpriced offer sheet and flip those picks for a couple of very good 4-6M players to plug any holes. The Leafs are building this team like an NBA team, but, the All Star players aren't playing the same minutes or have that much of an impact. You need depth and balance.

How exactly does Tavares dropping from 47 to 30 goals (a 36% decrease) work against Marner?

 

[Byron Bitz]

Pasta signed for 8.89% of cap.
Nylander's $6.692 is 8.7% of Cap...

Pasta had 123 NHL points over 172 games. (regular season) .71PPG
Nylander had 135 points over 185 games (regular season) .72 PPG

and Dubas failed?????

Nylander was coming off 61 points in 82 games and Pasta was coming off 70 points in 75 games. All the comparables were in the leafs favor (Pasta, Ehlers, Larkin, Gaudreau) and somehow Nylander managed to blow them all out of the water. Same with Matthews. Dubas better not let Marner do the same thing, there’s no reason why we should be paying more than other teams for similar quality players.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I think it'll be 10.5 x 5.

Savage overpayment to say the least.

I think that 6th year is the hill Dubas will die on. I think he'll let Marner sit for the year over it.

Can’t have Matthews, Nylander, AND Marner all reach free agency at the same time.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Pasta signed for 8.89% of cap.
Nylander's $6.692 is 8.7% of Cap...

Pasta had 123 NHL points over 172 games. (regular season) .71PPG
Nylander had 135 points over 185 games (regular season) .72 PPG

and Dubas failed?????

Oh, it’s based on points with no other context?

Ok.

Do that with Matthews now in relation to other 14-15% of cap comparables.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Oh, it’s based on points with no other context?

Ok.

Do that with Matthews now in relation to other 14-15% of cap comparables.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Need to get rid of these punks Nylander and Marner
Only in it for the cash
We need some real hockey players

 

[Stephen]

Re: Dave Bolland's troll. As mediocre and forgettable as he was as a Leaf, we have to always be grateful that he chose the Florida Panthers over us, sparing this franchise of a contract that makes Nathan Horton's look like a good deal.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Woah now, no need to get so deep and philosophical. Of course, if he would sign for $6M a year I'd respect him even more, a "team player", "one of the good guys who loves his team and the game" etc. Ultimately, it is greed that drives talent.

Yeah, love of the sport is one thing, but those early workouts and drive to win are at least in part (a big part I presume) of players wanting to be better. The same money he wants, others coming in the system desire to. Him not playing gives opportunities to others, opens up a job for a guy who will make $400k, but WANTS to make the big bucks.

Which new linemate of Tavares wouldn't be motivated by playing with him? Money talks. Always will. You can make a great amount of it and still be a good human being.

In the end I think the players use the salary as validation for how "Good" they are. They are basically penis measuring and the more money the more bragging rights. So here is a suggestion : Get the league to actually officially rank players and give an award (not the Hart trophy voting system) based on league executives and coaches and even players voting. In the calculation of the winner they would include things like salary cap % and use it in a way that would REWARD players that took less to help the team.

I am sure 1000% that if AM took an 10.5x8yrs contract we would not have this issue we are having with MM. He would never be able to ask for more than AM...so it would have been better is AM wasn't tying his teams hands by being greedy. I don't think Dubas messed up with Willy and his contract...he did mess up with AM and it is going to ripple through the team for years to come. What do you think Reilly is going to say when he is up again? do you think he is going to give us a deal so AM can just take the extra money?

 

[Nithoniniel]

Nylander was coming off 61 points in 82 games and Pasta was coming off 70 points in 75 games. All the comparables were in the leafs favor (Pasta, Ehlers, Larkin, Gaudreau) and somehow Nylander managed to blow them all out of the water. Same with Matthews. Dubas better not let Marner do the same thing, there’s no reason why we should be paying more than other teams for similar quality players.

On Nylander:
First of all, you're ignoring two things. One, contracts have a closer relationship with PPG than raw points. Two, teams value a larger sample size of performance over a single year. They are both the result of studies on cap era contracts, and are integral parts of the public contract prediction models you can find.

Over the larger sample size, Nylander had a better PPG than Pasta. That's the basis. Pasta gets extra points for goalscoring, but I wouldn't give him extra credit for a better last year (which, of course, is weighed more heavily than previous years). The reason? Pasta had ten (!) empty net points that final season. That's like comparing two sprinters on a 100 meter course but give one a 10 meter head start.

Furthermore, the comparables weren't all in the Leafs favor. In fact, his ten closest comparables based on the above in the cap era averaged about $7M AAV. Matt Cane's contract prediction model, which was good enough to get him hired by the Devils, had him at $7M for a 6 year contract. Basically, he got a pretty average contract, and he had to fight for it harder than pretty much anyone in the cap era.

On Matthews:
Here you have a case, but I think blowing comparables out of the water is an exaggeration. Like Pastrnak above, Matthews gets a significant edge on most comparables due to his almost unparalleled goalscoring. My personal issue with the Matthews contract is that he got paid for what he's capable of, in a market that typically pays for what players has done. I don't have an issue with that in theory, but I wish we weren't leading the way for the change when that means a competitive disadvantage. Though I have a suspicion that the same contract philosophy is the reason why Kapanen and Johnsson got paid a bit less than they deserved.

 

[Kiwi]

I think it'll be 10.5 x 5.

Savage overpayment to say the least.

Who starts the fire Dubas thread you think? Because there going to be people lining up for that one

That being said I think it's going to be 9.5M×3, I'm going to be disgusted but what are you going to do? I've supported this team for to long to stop now

 

[ULF_55]

Who starts the fire Dubas thread you think? Because there going to be people lining up for that one

That being said I think it's going to be 9.5M×3, I'm going to be disgusted but what are you going to do? I've supported this team for to long to stop now

supporting the team doesn't require supporting individuals.

I haven't liked all the players over the years but never stopped supporting the leafs.

players are rentals.

 

[jaric1862]

What the absolute max they can give Marner without trading anyone away? Keeping in mind that there will most likely be injuries and they will have to run a roster that is smaller than 23. Ive asked this question several times but it seems like no one has an answer. Any cap whizzes want to step up?

 

[yubbers]

Who starts the fire Dubas thread you think? Because there going to be people lining up for that one

That being said I think it's going to be 9.5M×3, I'm going to be disgusted but what are you going to do? I've supported this team for to long to stop now

Dubas is Dave Nonis Jr. It's bad

 

[CabanaBoy5]

My guess at this point is that the leafs and Marner have agreed to 10.5 million (the precise amount of Clarkson/Horton ltir).

It's term that's holding everything back.

Leafs are probably holding firm to 8 years. Marner as low as 4.

Right before camp they'll meet in the middle at 10.5x6.

4 years will bring him to UFA...no way the Leafs do that

 

[Kiwi]

supporting the team doesn't require supporting individuals.

I haven't liked all the players over the years but never stopped supporting the leafs.

players are rentals.

I've always been the same

I've liked players over time but I'd have happily traded any of them to make the team better and I can't even say I particularly like most of the players on this current team

Same goes for management, I'd happily fire any of them to if I thought it would make us better or someone more suited to the job was out there and available

 

[jrgtml67]

Is there any evidence at all that Darren Ferris's clownery has any efficacy at all?

Contracts by Agent | Puckpedia

Taylor Hall at $6m per. Athanasiou at $3m. Bennett at $2.55. Josh Anderson at $1.855. And every one of those guys goes through the same bull**** playbook, including the European deal. As if any of his clients would risk getting injured for $500k swiss francs. Marner's career earnings are going to be well over $100m, assuming he doesn't get injured... it's the stupidest threat imaginable to say that he'd risk that to play in Europe instead of even a lowball 1y Leafs offer.

Wouldn't be playing. The tweet said practice and training.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

On Nylander:
First of all, you're ignoring two things. One, contracts have a closer relationship with PPG than raw points. Two, teams value a larger sample size of performance over a single year. They are both the result of studies on cap era contracts, and are integral parts of the public contract prediction models you can find.

Over the larger sample size, Nylander had a better PPG than Pasta. That's the basis. Pasta gets extra points for goalscoring, but I wouldn't give him extra credit for a better last year (which, of course, is weighed more heavily than previous years). The reason? Pasta had ten (!) empty net points that final season. That's like comparing two sprinters on a 100 meter course but give one a 10 meter head start.

Furthermore, the comparables weren't all in the Leafs favor. In fact, his ten closest comparables based on the above in the cap era averaged about $7M AAV. Matt Cane's contract prediction model, which was good enough to get him hired by the Devils, had him at $7M for a 6 year contract. Basically, he got a pretty average contract, and he had to fight for it harder than pretty much anyone in the cap era.

On Matthews:
Here you have a case, but I think blowing comparables out of the water is an exaggeration. Like Pastrnak above, Matthews gets a significant edge on most comparables due to his almost unparalleled goalscoring. My personal issue with the Matthews contract is that he got paid for what he's capable of, in a market that typically pays for what players has done. I don't have an issue with that in theory, but I wish we weren't leading the way for the change when that means a competitive disadvantage. Though I have a suspicion that the same contract philosophy is the reason why Kapanen and Johnsson got paid a bit less than they deserved.

See what happens?

Nylanders strength was points not goals. So in comparison to Pastrnak, goals are barely mentioned as a side note. It's apparently all about "ppg".

So then, for consistencies sake, we apply that precise same logic to Matthews. We look at his points and ppg, and say they're WAY lower than other 14-15% of cap players.

But Matthews strength was goals, so now goals play into the picture. You get that? Pastrnak scoring at a 37 goal pace compared to Nylanders 20... and goals don't matter. But they DO with Matthews.

It's completely nuts.

And as to your point about "multiple good seasons" regarding Nylander vs Pastrnak, does that also apply to Rantanen vs Marner? Rantanen was above a ppg TWICE compared to Marner scoring in the 60's his first two seasons. So Rantanen will make as much as Marner, or Dubas is horrible at his job, right?

And, if anything, Pastrnak scoring all of those empty netters shows just how much his coach trusts him in the final minutes of the game (and how clutch he is in such situations), whereas Nylander is kept as FAR AWAY FROM THE ICE AS POSSIBLE in the final minute with a 1 goal lead.

Finally, let's also add how much more player friendly Nylanders contract is compared to Pastrnak. Pasta has 2 ufa years taken up, compared to Nylanders 1. And Nylander's contract is WAY more front loaded and paid in signing bonuses than Pastrnak.