Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[Sypher04]

Anyway, I have work to do lol. Maybe I'll come back and fight more later

 

[Sypher04]

You specifically stated he isn't worth 9M. He quite clearly is. In fact, probably a lot more than that. And we're just a Kyle Dubas pen stroke away from confirming that.

Dubas was wrong. You were wrong.

I don't get why you're putting up such a fuss.

It happens.



If Marner's agent is complaining about low-ball offers, that sounds a lot like negotiating to me.

They were receptive to a deal in the off-season.

Once again, you're wrong.

If you're gonna keep responding to my posts, then please understand what I said.
I said a year ago Marner was not worth 9M based on comparables.
I said a year ago Marner would not be worth 9M without a huge season.

Marner did have a huge season but even more importantly the landscape of RFA contracts has changed significantly in the past year.
None of these things invalidate what I said, at the time I said it. As such I'm not wrong, because I'm not sitting here arguing Marner isn't worth 9M today in this new climate.

Also some degree of number trading doesn't imply serious negotiations, nor does it imply specifically that Marner was overly interested in signing a deal in the offseason. You're jumping to conclusions. I'm saying, we don't know. You can't call me wrong over something that is completely unprovable, especially so given none of us know the intentions of Marner and his representatives. It's ridiculous to suggest otherwise.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nice to know not just our fans are spooked by imaginary scenarios they dreamed up for the future, but our GM is too.

Actually, there is zero evidence it impacted the negotiations or final price.

But it's a great job by Dubas to avoid that legitimate threat.

 

[Bomber0104]

Actually, there is zero evidence it impacted the negotiations or final price.

But it's a great job by Dubas to avoid that legitimate threat.

And by the same token, there's zero evidence that it didn't impact the negotiations or final price.

I can't imagine Dubas would ever admit to a reporter his inner-most fears and emotional state when he signed that contract, so it's basically a moot point.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

If Marner signed for 9 last year people would now be screaming that Dubas should be fired because it should have been the Pasternak contract.
Fact of the matter is Ferris and Paul have been overvaluing Mitch for over a year now. If the ask was 9 last year that is ridiculous. There wasn’t even the audacious Matthews contract which Marner camp allegedly feels is a comparable.

 

[Mess]

If Marner signed for 9 last year people would now be screaming that Dubas should be fired because it should have been the Pasternak contract.
Fact of the matter is Ferris and Paul have been overvaluing Mitch for over a year now. If the ask was 9 last year that is ridiculous. There wasn’t even the audacious Matthews contract which Marner camp allegedly feels is a comparable.

If some Leaf Nation fans would have have screamed and shouted at the idea of Dubas signing Marner to the Draisaitl deal last summer then what will those same fans say now that Marner is going to get >$10 mil and not 8 years but 2-3 years less?

What was was viewed as bad overpayment last summer is even worse now in terms of cap hit AAV and term.

Dubas isn't vindicated by NOT giving Marner the Draisaitl deal last summer if the contract he signs him for now is much higher and less term.

I guess I'm asking how is smart of Dubas not pay Marner $8-$9 mil X 8 years last summer, but wise he waited to give him $10-$11 mil now for 5-6 years?

 

[PromisedLand]

Actually, it was only Kypreos who reported they'd actually talked 9x8. I don't recall a single other person say such (again that wasn't citing Kypreos)

And nothing of the sort regarding Matthews was ever reported as happening. There was a ton of speculation, but that's it.

Lots of speculation. Not a lot of people going on record saying these numbers were discussed or how close said numbers were to getting a deal actually done.

By your reasoning everything is speculation unless until confirmed either by the player/agent or the GM; but if one was to use some kind of logical reasoning one can piece information together.

Some articles from before aug 2018

Maple Leafs' Auston Matthews unsure if he'll sign new deal before season - Sportsnet.ca

“I’m not really involved with the talks. That’s something being dealt with by my agents and team management.
“They’ve told me that it will get done when it gets done, and that’s fine.”

Maple Leafs, star centre Auston Matthews talking contract extension - Sportsnet.ca
In adition to Matthews, the Leafs will also have to sort out the future contracts of players like Mitch Marner and Kasperi Kapanen, whose entry-level deals also expire at the end of this coming season, as well as restricted free agent William Nylander, who, as it stands right now, still remains without a deal for the 2018-19 campaign.

Nylander's contract talks could go down to wire (and that's OK) - Sportsnet.ca

“I’ve said all along that Kyle wanted to take things slow and I’m fine with that,” Nylander said.

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/auston-matthews-leafs-in-talks-on-extension-report-1.4763787
Matthews can expect his own big payday soon. Sportsnet's Luke Fox reported Thursday that the Leafs and the 20-year-old centre are in talks about a contract extension that will likely pay him upward of $80 million US over eight years.



Marner on if contract was offered by Dubas (June 2018)
Q&A with Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner | The Star
Nothing has been said yet, but nothing you can do. If nothing happens, you still have a year to play under your rookie contract. Just go out there and try to prove you can make the team better.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner’s Contract Negotiations Could Be Tough




And here is a good article how foresight could have been used by Dubas
Leafs’ smartest bet is to sign Matthews, Marner, Nylander now


just for giggles here is a post by zeke which he has completely turned off and vehemently debated against for a while
Value of: - Auston Matthews New Contract

Why foresight matters?
How John Tavares Will Impact Mitch Marner’s Next Contract

I am at work or can I do more research. I remember reading articles last summer about Matthews looking for 8 year deal more than Eichel but less than McDavid

And 72 million for marner on the 8 year deal was reported too; if the claim is that marner bet on himself to take advantage of tavares; then that is a very very risky bet - marner could have easily been injured heck he had mono in his first season that impacted his production. that would have been a huge risk.


Conclusion:
From all of the above one could guesstimate that Dubas dropped the ball here and did not have a good foresight to get things done such that it benefits the team.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

If some Leaf Nation fans would have have screamed and shouted at the idea of Dubas signing Marner to the Draisaitl deal last summer then what will those same fans say now that Marner is going to get >$10 mil and not 8 years but 2-3 years less?

What was was viewed as bad overpayment last summer is even worse now in terms of cap hit AAV and term.

Dubas isn't vindicated by NOT giving Marner the Draisaitl deal last summer if the contract he signs him for now is much higher and less term.

I guess I'm asking how is smart of Dubas not pay Marner $8-$9 mil X 8 years last summer, but wise he waited to give him $10-$11 mil now for 5-6 years?

9 million last year would have been an extreme overpay. Even though it seemed obvious he would tear it up last year with Tavares it would still be viewed as an extreme but lucky overpay.
It’s similar to Matthews: even if he performs up to his contract there will be many people who won’t be satisfied as they felt it was an extreme overpay to begin with (I’m not one of them).

 

[PromisedLand]

May I remind you of our conversation last summer.

Now this is called a good "foresight" which escaped dubas' logic and reasoning and now we are here in current scenario because of dubas

 

[Mess]

9 million last year would have been an extreme overpay. Even though it seemed obvious he would tear it up last year with Tavares it would still be viewed as an extreme but lucky overpay.
It’s similar to Matthews: even if he performs up to his contract there will be many people who won’t be satisfied as they felt it was an extreme overpay to begin with (I’m not one of them).

Did Dubas win or lose by waiting and letting Marner "prove it" even though the majority of Leafs Nation knew he would be a PPG player playing alongside JT?

As you said earlier "There wasn’t even the audacious Matthews contract which Marner camp allegedly feels is a comparable." .. But it was Dubas that gave Matthews that audacious contract himself that now Marner is using to his advantage.

$9 mil X 8 was an extreme overpayment but >$10 mil X 6 is fair now?

I'm sure glad Dubas didn't overpay Mitch $9 mil, when he wisely held out and now getting him > +$10 mil on less term.

How does one connect the dots and reconcile those 2 positions taken?