Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[Bomber0104]

Not massively overpaying a 69 point winger when you have other key negotiations to do is good foresight.

Marner broke out in a massive way before we could get him under contract. And now he's negotiating against the 5-year Matthews deal.

That's anything but good foresight.

If we got him on an 8 year deal, that would have set the precedent for Nylander to sign long term or bridge for a smaller AAV.

 

[Bomber0104]

What changed?

Matthews still scored at an 88 pt pace and Marner. Had what 8 empty net points?

Nothing changed. He PKs? You think people make money for that?

Pace. Key word.

Marner did better than that, and didn't need an excuse that he got injured.

He actually did it.

Dubas might be the only manager in the world that's rewarding players for missing time and getting hurt.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And now he's negotiating against the 5-year Matthews deal.

As a clearly worse and less valuable player. Marner getting 9m after what he had proven last offseason would have inflated the Nylander and Matthews contracts considerably, and we'd be in a worse spot.

That's anything but good foresight.

Not massively overpaying a 69 point winger when you have other key negotiations to do is good foresight.

 

[Bomber0104]

As a clearly worse and less valuable player. Marner getting 9m after what he had proven last offseason would have inflated the Nylander and Matthews contracts considerably, and we'd be in a worse spot.

If it set a precedent for 8 year deals for the other two then we'd be better for it.

Instead Dubas backed himself into a corner with 5/6 year deals.

Not massively overpaying a 69 point winger when you have other key negotiations to do is good foresight.

I'm sure that's what Avs and Bruins fans were thinking when they signed MacKinnon, Pastrnak, Marchand, etc...

Then they broke out AFTER they signed their deals and now they're bargains.

Just as a $9M/year 8 year-deal would have been for a player of Marner's tier.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If it set a precedent for 8 year deals for the other two then we'd be better for it.

No, if we signed them all to 8-year deals using Marner's massive 9m overpayment as a base, we'd have lost one of them and be in a way worse spot.

Instead Dubas backed himself into a corner with 5/6 year deals.

Dubas kept a cup contender together with 5/6 year deals.

I'm sure that's what Avs and Bruins fans were thinking when they signed MacKinnon, Pastrnak, Marchand, etc...

They were thinking that they were signing their players to their value at the time of signing.

Then they broke out AFTER they signed their deals and now they're bargains.

Good for them? Sucks for us that we have amazing players that have been amazing since they stepped into the league, leading us from worst in the league to the playoffs every year? I guess?

You do realize 2 out of those 3 didn't even sign early right?

Just as a $9M/year 8 year-deal would have been for a player of Marner's tier.

Except it wouldn't. 9m (assuming this unsubstantiated rumour that doesn't add up is even true) for what he was last offseason would have been a massive over-payment based on hopes and dreams to a level not really ever seen in this league.

 

[kb]

No, if we signed them all to 8-year deals using Marner's massive 9m overpayment as a base, we'd have lost one of them and be in a way worse spot.


Dubas kept a cup contender together with 5/6 year deals.


They were thinking that they were signing their players to their value at the time of signing.


Good for them? Sucks for us that we have amazing players that have been amazing since they stepped into the league, leading us from worst in the league to the playoffs every year? I guess?

You do realize 2 out of those 3 didn't even sign early right?


Except it wouldn't. 9m (assuming this unsubstantiated rumour that doesn't add up is even true) for what he was last offseason would have been a massive over-payment based on hopes and dreams to a level not really ever seen in this league.

But the thing here is that it's so easy to create a false narrative such as this mythical contract, and then crap on the GM for not acting on that mythical creation.

 

[Sypher04]

Pace. Key word.

Marner did better than that, and didn't need an excuse that he got injured.

He actually did it.

Dubas might be the only manager in the world that's rewarding players for missing time and getting hurt.

He's not rewarding him for missing time and being hurt. He's paying him based on how he performs when he's in the lineup. Which is quite literally what every GM is doing.

If you think Dubas is walking into a negotiation with Matthews' agent and saying "look, if Auston had stayed healthy for 30 more games the past 2 years, he's worth 11 million, but we have to assume he's going miss 30 the next 2 as well, so we're offering you just 9 million based on that" and the agent is going along with it for even 30 seconds, you are completely out to lunch.

Matthew is 21. Has missed only ~30 games out of like 246 career opportunities to play. You cannot negotiate a contract based on the prediction of future injuries and it's ridiculous to think you can.

 

[Bomber0104]

No, if we signed them all to 8-year deals using Marner's massive 9m overpayment as a base, we'd have lost one of them and be in a way worse spot.

Why would we lose anyone? This is fear mongering.

Dubas kept a cup contender together with 5/6 year deals.

And?

8 years is substantially longer than 5/6...

They were thinking that they were signing their players to their value at the time of signing.

Really? Have you asked them that? Taken a poll of Bruins and Avs fans thoughts from years ago?

Or should I just take your word for it?

Good for them? Sucks for us that we have amazing players that have been amazing since they stepped into the league, leading us to the playoffs every year? I guess?

You do realize 2 out of those 3 didn't even sign early right?

No it doesn't suck to have great players but what sucks is that other GM's found avenues in negotiations where they correctly bet on potential as opposed to Dubas who didn't have the stones to do the same.

When other teams have great players on great contracts, they're better positioned than a team with great players on worse contracts.

Except it wouldn't. 9m (assuming this unsubstantiated rumour that doesn't add up is even true) for what he was last offseason would have been a massive over-payment based on hopes and dreams to a level not really ever seen in this league.

Leaving Marner to play a full season without a contract, with John Tavares as his centre both on even-strength and the powerplay, and NOT expecting a major leap in production is beyond stupid and the opposite of foresight.

But that seems to be what you enjoy propagating here so I can't say I'm surprised.

 

[Bomber0104]

But the thing here is that it's so easy to create a false narrative such as this mythical contract, and then crap on the GM for not acting on that mythical creation.

We were told of a "mythical" offer sheet threat for Matthews and that's why we signed him to that god-awful deal, no?

Funny how only certain reports from the same reporters are taken at face value, and others are steadfastly rejected.

 

[Mess]

Last summer the Draisaitl was the deal [$8.5 mil X 8] mentioned as the Marner contract that he was seeking.

At that time with just 62 and 69 points season Mitch didn't have the stats to merit that comparable contract other than future projections and expectations.

Dubas allowed him to "prove it" first and gave Marner every opportunity to earn that deal by signing and bringing in JT as his centre.

Marner bet on himself also (as they didn't want to negotiate during the season) to also prove he was worth that contract which he did in fact prove to management with his season.

So we should really be at a point now where the $8.5 mil X 8 year deal was earned on merit of performance, and Dubas should/would now with evidence be willing to give Marner what he wanted last summer.

This situation should really be cut and dry .. Prove it first, so he did , now pay him !!

 

[Legion34]

Pace. Key word.

Marner did better than that, and didn't need an excuse that he got injured.

He actually did it.

Dubas might be the only manager in the world that's rewarding players for missing time and getting hurt.

Unless you consider..... all of them?

Look at the ELC stats of all players since the lockout.

There is no precedent for a player performing the way Matthews has getting less because of injuries......

Many players got hurt in their ELC. IF you are a top 10 performer in all categories. Many lost time due to injury. They got paid on performance

It’s not rare

 

[ACC1224]

Except it wouldn't. 9m (assuming this unsubstantiated rumour that doesn't add up is even true) for what he was last offseason would have been a massive over-payment based on hopes and dreams to a level not really ever seen in this league.

8.5 x 8
You have to assume Dubas regrets not taking that.

 

[Sypher04]

Leaving Marner to play a full season without a contract, with John Tavares as his centre both on even-strength and the powerplay, and NOT expecting a major leap in production is beyond stupid and the opposite of foresight.

Which is probably the best reason to assume the reports that Marner didn't want to sign a deal last summer, instead wanting to play out the final year of his ELC and go last in contract negotiations, are probably the accurate ones we heard.

If you can recognize that signing Marner last summer would have been optimal, it's hard to imagine a scenario where an NHL General Manager didn't also know that. Time and cap inflation was always gonna lead to a higher cost later.

 

[Sypher04]

8.5 x 8
You have to assume Dubas regrets not taking that.

There is no evidence it was ever legitimately an option.
Just unsubstantiated rumor from 1 source of debatable credibility.

 

[ACC1224]

There is no evidence it was ever legitimately an option.
Just unsubstantiated rumor from 1 source of debatable credibility.

It's not unsubstantiated for me.
As always everyone is welcome to believe what they like.

 

[Mess]

There is no evidence it was ever legitimately an option.
Just unsubstantiated rumor from 1 questionable source.

Are you disputing the reports as false, or did you think last summer that the $8.5 mil X 8 year deal was an outrageous ask by Marner with just a 62 and 69 point season under his belt, therefore the numbers didn't make sense as reported?

Other NHL comparable contracts at that time would have supported your case.

Both Marner and Nylander's comparable league contracts more in line with Pastrnak's contract last summer and not Draisaitl.

What were your contract predictions last summer for Marner?

 

[Sypher04]

It's not unsubstantiated for me.
As always everyone is welcome to believe what they like.

No, by definition it was unsubstantiated. Kypreos reported it, and some parts of sportnset parroted it, citing his report, but not one other person who claims to have NHL inside knowledge ever corroborated the report, which would have likely happened if it was at all true.

 

[BlueForever75]

Like I said if Marner doesn't sign for max years he will not get 10 million plus per season. Simple.

He isn't worth it as a winger and personally I would trade him if his demands are too high.

 

[ACC1224]

No, by definition it was unsubstantiated. Kypreos reported it, and some parts of sportnset parroted it, citing his report, but not one other person who claims to have NHL inside knowledge ever corroborated the report, which would have likely happened if it was at all true.

No idea what Kypreos or anyone else said but I can understand being sceptical about that
I know how I know, good enough for me.

As always everyone is welcome to believe what they like.

 

[Sypher04]

Are you disputing the reports as false, or did you think last summer that the $8.5 mil X 8 year deal was an outrageous ask by Marner with just a 62 and 69 point season under his belt?

Other NHL comparable contracts at that time would have supported your case.

Both Marner and Nylander's comparable league contracts more in line with Pastrnak's contract last summer.

I'm disputing the idea of taking the report as gospel. Do I know if it happened or not? I, of course, do not. What I take issue with is people throwing it around as a fact that Dubas turned down the opportunity to sign Marner at 9m x 8 (it was never 8.5m that was reported to my knowledge) as a means of proving that Dubas screwed up. For all we know Mitch's camp was pressed for a number, 9m was what they coughed up accompanied by a "but we would greatly prefer to play out the remainder of Mitch's ELC before getting into real negotiations".

The point is none of us were there and best bet is that not a single person here knows either, despite the claims of some to have inside knowledge. And one article from Kypreos doesn't really change that we don't know what was or wasn't possible last summer.

 

[Sypher04]

No idea what Kypreos or anyone else said but I can understand being sceptical about that
I know how I know, good enough for me.

As always everyone is welcome to believe what they like.

Please don't tell me you are also now claiming inside knowledge. We have enough "insiders" on this board already....

 

[Eric Bungay]

It's like you make minimum wage right now, and next year you are due for a raise. Boss offers you $80,000 per year, but you think if you work hard for an extra year, you can make $100,000. Would you wait that extra year?

I wish I was making 80 grand a year ..lol I get what your saying and I would probably take the 80 though still ! But that's not to say what other people would do I know were all different and everybody's situation is also different too !

 

[Nithoniniel]

No idea what Kypreos or anyone else said but I can understand being sceptical about that
I know how I know, good enough for me.

As always everyone is welcome to believe what they like.

Heard too much to think it's not real. I just put no value in it. If Marchessault went to Panthers in '16 and offered to sign an 8 year deal at $4M, it would have been a joke offer and likely an end to negotiations. They'd regret it today, as it would have been one of the best contracts in the league, but that doesn't mean it was something that should have been seriously considered at the time.

The Marner offer is similar, just less extreme of course.

 

[al secord]

No idea what Kypreos or anyone else said but I can understand being sceptical about that
I know how I know, good enough for me.

As always everyone is welcome to believe what they like.

Yep. There are plenty of people out there who base their beliefs on hypotheticals and unsubstantiated claims. Let them eat cake.

 

[ACC1224]

Please don't tell me you are also now claiming inside knowledge. We have enough "insiders" on this board already....

Is it really that hard to imagine that people living in the GTA would have some type of connection to kids growing up playing in the GTA?

As always everyone is welcome to believe what they like.