Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[ACC1224]

I like Marner a lot and want him here, but I can't help but look at the best run sports franchise, the Patriots. What would Bill Belichek do in this case? My guess is he would trade him because having Marner sit or overpaying Marner doesn't help the team at all. I hate the Pats for the record and I understand football is different than hockey, but the principles of running a team are the same.

The priority should be signing Marner at a fair deal, not overpaying him. If that won't work out, then come late August, start looking at deals to trade him. Marner makes Tavaras better, but not by much. JT is a superstar with or without Marner and JT will make any winger they give him better.

Cheat.

 

[Legion34]

If you continue to be disingenuous, I recommend mods ban you from this topic, you're just wasting everyone's time.

Since the year 2000, this is the list of players that had a higher points per game average than Matthews after their first 3 years.

Crosby
Ovechkin
McDavid
Malkin
Backstrom

That's it, and Ovechkin, Malkin and Backstrom were all older than him, none of them played in the NHL as teenagers (two of them because of the lookout).

So, what i'm telling you is that Matthews has been incredible.

And the best part is.

Backstrom. Ovy
Crosby. Malkin
Mcdavid. Draisitl


Matthews’...... Hyman. Brown. Kapanen. Johnson ennis. Nylander

 

[Gary Nylund]

well, yes.

looking at total points is looking at a stat that necessarily omits all context.

How many stats are there that stand completely on their own without any context?

 

[zeke]

How many stats are there that stand completely on their own without any context?

we have stats that have context built in to them. those are likely the stats dubas looks at.

from his perspective, looking at total points would just be deliberately stripping out context from numbers he already has.

 

[Legion34]

I'm of the opinion that real points matter than "projections". I am also of the opinion that the ability to remain healthy should be rewarded.

So, yeah, in my opinion, Marner should be paid like all of his comparables were. Somewhere around 11% of the cap over 5 years. Which is about 9x5 right now.

Matthews should be paid based on his stats as well. Not PROJECTIONS of points. But REAL points. Getting hurt of the time should lower value in my opinion.

There is a reason it's flat out unprecedneted for a 74 point career high player signing for near 15% of the cap. Especially at 5 years.

Ummmmmmmm google. “Nash, Rick.... gaborik. Marian.”

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Ummmmmmmm google. “Nash, Rick.... gaborik. Marian.”

Nash was still lower percent and he had a Richard during elc.

And it’s insane that your bring up Gaborik. When the cap was introduced, he was at 5% of the cap on his post elc contract. It was his 3rd contract where he saw 14% of cap.

As I stated, a 73 point player getting 14-15% of the cap on their post elc contract is unprecedented. Regardless of 5v5 p/60, pp time, or any other lame excuses.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

And the best part is.

Backstrom. Ovy
Crosby. Malkin
Mcdavid. Draisitl


Matthews’...... Hyman. Brown. Kapanen. Johnson ennis. Nylander

Another thing:

PP time/82 games vs. On-Ice GF/60 in career
Crosby: 347 minutes; 8.7 GF/60
Ovechkin: 371 minutes; 9.0 GF/60
McDavid: 258 minutes; 8.2 GF/60
Malkin: 361 minutes; 8.9 GF/60
Backstrom: 288 minutes; 10 GF/60
Matthews: 201 minutes; 8.4 GF/60

If Matthews played as much as McDavid on the PP (who is second lowest), he's generating another 8 goals on the PP per 82 games. Bump that up to Ovechkin #'s and you are essentially getting an extra 17 goals. Now not all of those goals will go towards Matthews' production, and that means other guys (i.e. the 2PP) are not producing as much (assuming the Leafs receive the same total amount of PP time), but Matthews' numbers only start to look better.

Another thing is that McDavid and Matthews have not even hit their primes yet, while the GF numbers for the other 4 have all of their prime years in it already. It is going to go downhill for them very soon, while for McDavid and Matthews, it's only going to get better.

 

[Gary Nylund]

we have stats that have context built in to them. those are likely the stats dubas looks at.

from his perspective, looking at total points would just be deliberately stripping out context from numbers he already has.

I'd bet a ton that he looks at total points. That doesn't mean he spends a lot of time on it or weights it heavily but to suggest that he doesn't even look at it seems silly. I also suspect he's not the main number cruncher in the organization, I suspect there are others who do that and then report to him.

You're probably the biggest proponent of advanced stats on this site and that's great. It doesn't mean that some other "old school" stats that you like to make fun of have zero value though.

The more information you have the better, that's the bottom line.

 

[Legion34]

Nash was still lower percent and he had a Richard during elc.

And it’s insane that your bring up Gaborik. When the cap was introduced, he was at 5% of the cap on his post elc contract. It was his 3rd contract where he saw 14% of cap.

As I stated, a 73 point player getting 14-15% of the cap on their post elc contract is unprecedented. Regardless of 5v5 p/60, pp time, or any other lame excuses.

Marian Gaborik signed a 3 year deal at 14.33
Having never reached 40 goals or 70’pts.

Rick Nash has 13.85. Right out of his ELC
He had 1 41 goal season where he was a in a 3 way tie for the rocket. So it is just as accurate to say he was a top 3 goal scorer once.

He also had a 17 goal season and had NEVER even beat 57 pts

He was 19th in goals in his ELC and got 13.85
Matthews was 5th in his ELC

So you are suggesting that a 14.3 (when it was signed it was 13.7-14)

Percent cap is unacceptable and and DRAMATIC OVERPAYMENT. For a top 5 goal scorer who had a career high of 73 pts and was a ppg or over in 2 of his last 3 seasons. Who was also a top 2 goal scorer in his only healthy year

But a 13.85 percent cap for a guy who NEVER EVEN REACHED 60 pts isn’t?

Don’t you see how that is wrong. Like PSYCHOTICALLY wrong? I can’t TAKE it! It’s JUST NOT IN ME!

I Demand consistency!

I DEMAND IT.

Is that how this goes?

 

[hfman]

Marian Gaborik signed a 3 year deal at 14.33
Having never reached 40 goals or 70’pts.

Rick Nash has 13.85. Right out of his ELC
He had 1 41 goal season where he was a in a 3 way tie for the rocket. So it is just as accurate to say he was a top 3 goal scorer once.

He also had a 17 goal season and had NEVER even beat 57 pts

So you are suggesting that a 14.3 (when it was signed it was 13.7-14)

Percent cap is unacceptable and and DRAMATIC OVERPAYMENT. For a top 5 goal scorer who had a career high of 73 pts and was a ppg or over in 2 of his last 3 seasons. Who was also a top 2 goal scorer in his only healthy year

But a 13.85 percent cap for a guy who NEVER EVEN REACHED 60 pts isn’t?

Don’t you see how that is wrong. Like PSYCHOTICALLY wrong? I can’t TAKE it! It’s JUST NOT IN ME!

I Demand consistency!

I DEMAND IT.

Is that how this goes?

HEY. DON'T TALK LIKE THAT

 

[PromisedLand]

I like Marner a lot and want him here, but I can't help but look at the best run sports franchise, the Patriots. What would Bill Belichek do in this case? My guess is he would trade him because having Marner sit or overpaying Marner doesn't help the team at all. I hate the Pats for the record and I understand football is different than hockey, but the principles of running a team are the same.

The priority should be signing Marner at a fair deal, not overpaying him. If that won't work out, then come late August, start looking at deals to trade him. Marner makes Tavaras better, but not by much. JT is a superstar with or without Marner and JT will make any winger they give him better.

Let the air out of the football?

 

[PromisedLand]

Don't think Marner is singing until October; I wonder how many threads we will have by then

 

[cannucky]

how about we pay these guys a pergame amount , deduct the games they miss from their total contract amount including bonus and charge the cap accordingly and Mathews will make what hes worth and so will Mitch .

 

[cannucky]

how about we pay these guys a per game amount , deduct the games they miss from their total contract amount including bonus and charge the cap accordingly , Mathews will make what hes worth and so will Mitch .

 

[Legion34]

how about we pay these guys a per game amount , deduct the games they miss from their total contract amount including bonus and charge the cap accordingly , Mathews will make what hes worth and so will Mitch .

They kinda do. LTIR

 

[Throw More Waffles]

we have stats that have context built in to them. those are likely the stats dubas looks at.

from his perspective, looking at total points would just be deliberately stripping out context from numbers he already has.

If it were any other gm, they would pay matthews as a 40 goal/70 point player.

Good thing you and Dubas are there to use a whole bunch of other "smarter" stats that rationalize paying him FAR more.

"Dubas is so smart that he's found a way to overpay all of his players."

 

[SeaOfBlue]

If it were any other gm, they would pay matthews as a 40 goal/70 point player.

Good thing you and Dubas are there to use a whole bunch of other "smarter" stats that rationalize paying him FAR more.

"Dubas is so smart that he's found a way to overpay all of his players."

What do those make?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Marian Gaborik signed a 3 year deal at 14.33
Having never reached 40 goals or 70’pts.

Rick Nash has 13.85. Right out of his ELC
He had 1 41 goal season where he was a in a 3 way tie for the rocket. So it is just as accurate to say he was a top 3 goal scorer once.

He also had a 17 goal season and had NEVER even beat 57 pts

He was 19th in goals in his ELC and got 13.85
Matthews was 5th in his ELC

So you are suggesting that a 14.3 (when it was signed it was 13.7-14)

Percent cap is unacceptable and and DRAMATIC OVERPAYMENT. For a top 5 goal scorer who had a career high of 73 pts and was a ppg or over in 2 of his last 3 seasons. Who was also a top 2 goal scorer in his only healthy year

But a 13.85 percent cap for a guy who NEVER EVEN REACHED 60 pts isn’t?

Don’t you see how that is wrong. Like PSYCHOTICALLY wrong? I can’t TAKE it! It’s JUST NOT IN ME!

I Demand consistency!

I DEMAND IT.

Is that how this goes?

Gaborik was on third contract so is entirely irrelevant to my point.

And congratulations. You found a contract with Nash almost as unprecedented as Matthews. But still not quite. The elc Richard winner is still an entire percentage point below Matthews.

You can't argue a different point entirely.

I'll restate my argument. A 73 point career high player signing for 14-15% of the cap on their post elc contract is unprecedented.

 

[zeke]

I'd bet a ton that he looks at total points. That doesn't mean he spends a lot of time on it or weights it heavily but to suggest that he doesn't even look at it seems silly. I also suspect he's not the main number cruncher in the organization, I suspect there are others who do that and then report to him.

You're probably the biggest proponent of advanced stats on this site and that's great. It doesn't mean that some other "old school" stats that you like to make fun of have zero value though.

The more information you have the better, that's the bottom line.

total points is less information, not more.

 

[Legion34]

If it were any other gm, they would pay matthews as a 40 goal/70 point player.

Good thing you and Dubas are there to use a whole bunch of other "smarter" stats that rationalize paying him FAR more.

"Dubas is so smart that he's found a way to overpay all of his players."

But another GM paid Rick Nash 13.85 as the 19th best goal scorer who was a 57 Pt player.

So a top 5 goal 73 pt player is worth much more right?

I was told Matthews was UNPRECEDENTED...... doesn’t Nash contract make Matthews PSYCHOTICALLY GOOD?

It does doesn’t it?

I DEMAND CONSISTENCY



Isn’t this fun???

 

[Throw More Waffles]

What do those make?

There's an entire 15 year history of the cap as supporting evidence.

No 70 point forward has EVER received 14-15% of the cap on their post elc contract.

 

[Legion34]

Gaborik was on third contract so is entirely irrelevant to my point.

And congratulations. You found a contract with Nash almost as unprecedented as Matthews. But still not quite. The elc Richard winner is still an entire percentage point below Matthews.

You can't argue a different point entirely.

I'll restate my argument. A 73 point career high player signing for 14-15% of the cap on their post elc contract is unprecedented.

Wait? Matthews makes an entire percentage point more that Nash did?

Now you are making up math?

That’s not consistent! I DEMAND CONSISTENCY. I CANT TAKE IT!

 

[Throw More Waffles]

But another GM paid Rick Nash 13.85 as the 19th best goal scorer who was a 57 Pt player.

So a top 5 goal 73 pt player is worth much more right?

I was told Matthews was UNPRECEDENTED...... doesn’t Nash contract make Matthews PSYCHOTICALLY GOOD?

It does doesn’t it?

I DEMAND CONSISTENCY



Isn’t this fun???

So you've ignored my argument, came up with your own argument, and then "proved" YOUR argument.
And then you act like you won the argument.

One thing for sure that you DIDN'T do was counter MY argument.

 

[zeke]

If it were any other gm, they would pay matthews as a 40 goal/70 point player.

Good thing you and Dubas are there to use a whole bunch of other "smarter" stats that rationalize paying him FAR more.

"Dubas is so smart that he's found a way to overpay all of his players."

true, other GMs would rather spend that money on marleau and zaitsev.

 

[Mess]

I don't believe that is correct. They could activate both on offseason LTIR once Marner signs.

Can LTIR be used in the off-season?

Yes, LTIR can be used in the off-season while the 10% off-season cushion is active. LTIR in the off-season is calculated using the basic equation outlined above, which permits a team to exceed the off-season salary cap. To use off-season LTIR the team must provide doctors proof that the player in question will continue to be injured at the beginning of the regular season for 10 NHL games and 24 calendar days.

At the start of the season the teams LTIR relief & ACSL is recalculated when the 10% cushion is removed.
----------------------------------------------------------
What this means is that there is actually more money for Marner in the offseason than there will be once the season starts...

I think Horton and Clarkson are both the same $10.55 mil offseason and regular season now.

However perhaps its Hyman and Dermott that might qualify for Offseason LTIR extra relief based on missing a month to start the year.