Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[inthe6ix]

I just hope he's signed for training camp.

It would be nice to start the season with the full line up

agreed before camp starts as we don't want another nylander fiasco

however we won't be totally full without hyman and dermott either

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I think I'd put my money on a 2 year $9Mish deal right now, but $10M-10.5M x 6+ is something I can live with.

I think we get a lot of parallels drawn to the Blackhawks of around 2010/11 (post the Kane/Toews ELC's), which worked well for the term of their 2nd contracts but they got to cap hell on the following ones and haven't managed to get out of that pit yet. Kane/Toews 2nd contracts were 10.6% of cap in the first year they took effect, Matthews is already over 14% (though I think he's a rich man's Toews) and Marner is looking for something similar. Chicago's cap hell started when Kane/Toews were making 14.7% of cap each, so I think we need to tread really carefully to make sure we don't hurt our contention window during what should be our best few years

that is a gross deal 2x9M speaking of taking Dubas to the cleaners...if the guy won't sign on long term don't give him good money...it's a trade off you want big money then you better be ready to give us some extra years
2x6.5 if he wants a deal at that length and let him know "When youre ready to sign long term we will talk double digits and close to them...until that point forget it, not worth it

 

[Nylander88]

I'd be surprised if come August Dubas doesn't start making calls. After what happened with Nylander last year, I don't think he wants to set a precedent that these kids can just be stubborn and take him into the season and still end up where they want to be, with their payday. I had no doubt Nylander wanted to be a Leaf, and I have no doubt that Marner wants to be a Leaf. Bad year aside, I don't think Nylander's contract will look bad at all over the next 5 years. Marner at Matthews money looks bad right away. He's not the best winger in hockey. Period. And he has RFA leverage, not UFA leverage. Dubas is going to have to play hardball at some point and let players know this crap isn't going to fly around here. Marner getting traded to a crap market would really set a bar. Yeah he's a heck of a hockey player, and I want him to be a lifelong leaf, but sometimes hard business decisions need to be made.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Seems fake tbh, but I'd do it

Marner+Prospect or picks...not both...Marner is worth at minimum Pesce + a pick

 

[Sypher04]

Marner+Prospect or picks...not both...Marner is worth at minimum Pesce + a pick

I hate listening to these guys on the radio. Even guests like David Pagnotta who occasionally is a good insider. But we are in silly season. I don't buy for a second that Brendan shanahan is running negotiations now and has "final say" on Marner. He has a GM for a reason. I fully believe he is involved, but he's not there undermining his GM. It's a garbage take people are tossing around but doesn't seem to be supported by anything resembling fact

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I hate listening to these guys on the radio. Even guests like David Pagnotta who occasionally is a good insider. But we are in silly season. I don't buy for a second that Brendan shanahan is running negotiations now and has "final say" on Marner. He has a GM for a reason. I fully believe he is involved, but he's not there undermining his GM. It's a garbage take

just reading it made me laugh (I'm at work in a cubicle so people around me jumped) but seriously...that's a terrible hot take and would make me ask whether Dubas was GM for the Leafs or AGM of the Canes lol

 

[Notsince67]

My guess is that this goes into the season. The Sparks move seems to be a hedge against an offer sheet once the season has started.

 

[thewave]

My guess is that this goes into the season. The Sparks move seems to be a hedge against an offer sheet once the season has started.

Pretty much. They can quickly slide a couple contracts and utilize 10.5m that covers the 4x1sts level. Pretty sure this is telling that we aren't matching 10.6m++

 

[Not My Tempo]

I think they’ll do a bridge but structure it similar to Timo Meier’s contract, as in the value will increase quite a bit each year and the final year will be huge as to guarantee a large qualifying offer.

Something like say a three year deal with 5 in the first year, 8 in the second and 12 in the third. End up as 8.33M x 3 but Marner guarantees that once his contract is done, he’s getting a minimum of 12M or he’s a UFA

 

[Hockey Crazy]

My guess is that this goes into the season. The Sparks move seems to be a hedge against an offer sheet once the season has started.

Pressure will really begin to ramp up if it did because the leafs are not in a situation where the year 1 cap bump benefits us like with nylander.

 

[hfman]

Morener still not signed yet?

What in the heavens is taking so long

 

[Notsince67]

Pretty much. They can quickly slide a couple contracts and utilize 10.5m that covers the 4x1sts level. Pretty sure this is telling that we aren't matching 10.6m++

It is a bit more complicated than that. They might match 10.6MM but I believe the leafs are now in the driver seat regarding late attempts at an offer sheet. I believe (i might be wrong but i dont think i am), that the pro rated frontloading that we saw with Willy, doesnt apply to LTIR capspace freed. That means any team looking to offersheet Marner might take a 15mm+ first year hit to their cap while the leafs wouldnt.

 

[Sypher04]

I don't know if this has come up in the thread yet, I'm willing to bet on yes, but I hadn't seen it so here it is anyway....
The last paragraph here is concerning imo. I was aware of everything up to and including that Nylander's 10.3 was pro-rated to a 6.96m cap hit against us in year 1. But if proration doesn't exist in LTIR as CapFriendly claims that strikes me as a pretty significant problem.

 

[Notsince67]

I don't know if this has come up in the thread yet, I'm willing to bet on yes, but I hadn't seen it so here it is anyway....
The last paragraph here is concerning imo. I was aware of everything up to and including that Nylander's 10.3 was pro-rated to a 6.96m cap hit against us in year 1. But if proration doesn't exist in LTIR as CapFriendly claims that strikes me as a pretty significant problem.

So if im reading this correctly, they believe that the Marner front loaded proration is a separate process than the team caphit mechanism which I think is wrong. My reading is that there would be no frontloading of caphit for Marner but the calculation really gets dicy if the leafs move somone to sign him above the 10.5 number and 2 separate calculations need to be made. 1 with the LTIR portion and one with legit cap portion.

 

[Nineteen67]

After the Vegas deal I am even more convinced that there is a desk drawer deal.

 

[Sypher04]

So if im reading this correctly, they believe that the Marner front loaded proration is a separate process than the team caphit mechanism which I think is wrong. My reading is that there would be no frontloading of caphit for Marner but the calculation really gets dicy if the leafs move somone to sign him above the 10.5 number and 2 separate calculations need to be made. 1 with the LTIR portion and one with legit cap portion.

I honestly wish I knew the answer.
So many wrinkles to all of this. One day I'll read this part of the CBA for myself... maybe lol.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Looking at total points is automatically excluding all the good stuff.

Because if you look at one thing you can't look at another thing?

Come on Zeke, you should know better than that.

 

[shaner82]

I like Marner a lot and want him here, but I can't help but look at the best run sports franchise, the Patriots. What would Bill Belichek do in this case? My guess is he would trade him because having Marner sit or overpaying Marner doesn't help the team at all. I hate the Pats for the record and I understand football is different than hockey, but the principles of running a team are the same.

The priority should be signing Marner at a fair deal, not overpaying him. If that won't work out, then come late August, start looking at deals to trade him. Marner makes Tavaras better, but not by much. JT is a superstar with or without Marner and JT will make any winger they give him better.

 

[Mess]

I don't know if this has come up in the thread yet, I'm willing to bet on yes, but I hadn't seen it so here it is anyway....
The last paragraph here is concerning imo. I was aware of everything up to and including that Nylander's 10.3 was pro-rated to a 6.96m cap hit against us in year 1. But if proration doesn't exist in LTIR as CapFriendly claims that strikes me as a pretty significant problem.

That is correct..

If Marner held out like Nylander then Marner's $10 mil could become between $13-14 mil in year #1 and would mean Leafs would need all of the $10.55 mil LTIR and dump a player making >$ 3 mil like AJ or Kapanen or Kerfoot for futures to officially sign Marner near Dec 1st.

LTIR is static and does not get prorated.

Leafs would have been better off dealing Horton and not acquiring Clarkson and signing Marner now for the $10 mil AAV before the season.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I know nothing's on how Dubas and Marner's agent are negotiating this???

Here is what i think should happen best case scenario.

A 8 year deal locking Marner to be a leaf his entire career. Thats all i want!

Marner's agent is in the drivers seat basically. Some people think he isn't but when you have a superstar coming off a 94 point career season and leading scorer over Matthews, Tavares etc, you have some jam in negotiations.

Just give him what he deserves and get this over with is my thinking. He gets it done is the bottom line.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

That is correct..

If Marner held out like Nylander then Marner's $10 mil could become between $13-14 mil in year #1 and would mean Leafs would need all of the $10.55 mil LTIR and dump a player making >$ 3 mil like AJ or Kapanen or Kerfoot for futures to officially sign Marner near Dec 1st.

LTIR is static and does not get prorated.

Leafs would have been better off dealing Horton and not acquiring Clarkson and signing Marner now for the $10 mil AAV before the season.

Seems like this is Dubas' way of telling Marner: figure it out before the season starts or GTFO.

I Don't think that's unreasonable...

 

[Mess]

Seems like this is Dubas' way of telling Marner: figure it out before the season starts or GTFO.

I Don't think that's unreasonable...

The problem is that while acquiring Clarkson it did create a $10.55 mil LTIR situation post season start, it also as a result of his $5.25 mil contract potentially cut $2.16 mil into that potential LTIR $10.55 mil right now by pushing the Leafs over the $81.5 mil hard cap as of today, which leaves only about ~ $8.4 mil free cap space to resign Marner right now with a full roster..

Any more $$ and Leafs would need to massage the roster with a few players making near league minimum shuffled around, and running with less than 23 max roster to start the year.

Unless we're talking only a 1-3 year bridge deal, that $8.4 mil is short of the $10.5-$11 mil Marner is seeking.

NO Horton and No Clarkson and Leafs would have the full $10.55 mil in free cap space today with Zero LTIR.

The fact they acquired Clarkson, tells me that the Marner situation isn't close to be resolved and Leafs are buying more cap space for regular season when both players go on IR.

 

[zeke]

Because if you look at one thing you can't look at another thing?

Come on Zeke, you should know better than that.

well, yes.

looking at total points is looking at a stat that necessarily omits all context.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

The problem is that while acquiring Clarkson it did create a $10.55 mil LTIR situation post season start, it also as a result of his $5.25 mil contract potentially cut $2.16 mil into that potential LTIR $10.55 mil right now by pushing the Leafs over the $81.5 mil hard cap as of today, which leaves only about ~ $8.4 mil free cap space to resign Marner right now with a full roster..

Any more $$ and Leafs would need to massage the roster with a few players making near league minimum shuffled around, and running with less than 23 max roster to start the year.

Unless we're talking only a 1-3 year bridge deal, that $8.4 mil is short of the $10.5-$11 mil Marner is seeking.

NO Horton and No Clarkson and Leafs would have the full $10.55 mil in free cap space today with Zero LTIR.

The fact they acquired Clarkson, tells me that the Marner situation isn't close to be resolved and Leafs are buying more cap space for regular season when both players go on IR.

I don't believe that is correct. They could activate both on offseason LTIR once Marner signs.

Can LTIR be used in the off-season?

Yes, LTIR can be used in the off-season while the 10% off-season cushion is active. LTIR in the off-season is calculated using the basic equation outlined above, which permits a team to exceed the off-season salary cap. To use off-season LTIR the team must provide doctors proof that the player in question will continue to be injured at the beginning of the regular season for 10 NHL games and 24 calendar days.

At the start of the season the teams LTIR relief & ACSL is recalculated when the 10% cushion is removed.
----------------------------------------------------------
What this means is that there is actually more money for Marner in the offseason than there will be once the season starts...

 

[Suntouchable13]

I hope Dubi doesn’t even call Ferris if there is no deal by opening night. After the season starts, Ferris will have to reach out if he wants a deal. “This is what we have, that’s it”