Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[Babcocks Marner]

If you continue to be disingenuous, I recommend mods ban you from this topic, you're just wasting everyone's time.

Since the year 2000, this is the list of players that had a higher points per game average than Matthews after their first 3 years.

Crosby
Ovechkin
McDavid
Malkin
Backstrom

That's it, and Ovechkin, Malkin and Backstrom were all older than him, none of them played in the NHL as teenagers (two of them because of the lookout).

So, what i'm telling you is that Matthews has been incredible.

If you add Matthews to the list, it's the same list for Marner........ Or mighty close

Yes he has.

Agreed. He shouldn’t be paid more or less than a career high 74 point player.

Would that make Marner 20% more valuable for 94 points?

 

[hullsy47]

Yes because a 60 point guy with 21 goals deserves to be paid more than guys like a Gaudreau, Monahan, Mckinnon, Lankskoy, Marchment, Pastrank, Krejci, Schiefele etc, etc, etc,...

in 2019 yup they do

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If you add Matthews to the list, it's the same list for Marner........ Or mighty close

Yes he has.



Would that make Marner 20% more valuable for 94 points?

I'm of the opinion that real points matter than "projections". I am also of the opinion that the ability to remain healthy should be rewarded.

So, yeah, in my opinion, Marner should be paid like all of his comparables were. Somewhere around 11% of the cap over 5 years. Which is about 9x5 right now.

Matthews should be paid based on his stats as well. Not PROJECTIONS of points. But REAL points. Getting hurt of the time should lower value in my opinion.

There is a reason it's flat out unprecedneted for a 74 point career high player signing for near 15% of the cap. Especially at 5 years.

 

[ToDavid]

Agreed. He shouldn’t be paid more or less than a career high 74 point player.

Do you really expect me to take this seriously?

 

[ToDavid]

I'm of the opinion that real points matter than "projections". I am also of the opinion that the ability to remain healthy should be rewarded.

So, yeah, in my opinion, Marner should be paid like all of his comparables were. Somewhere around 11% of the cap over 5 years. Which is about 9x5 right now.

Matthews should be paid based on his stats as well. Not PROJECTIONS of points. But REAL points. Getting hurt of the time should lower value in my opinion.

There is a reason it's flat out unprecedneted for a 74 point career high player signing for near 15% of the cap. Especially at 5 years.

When Matthews signed his contract on February 5:

23g, 46p in 38 games (current season)
34g, 69p in 56 games (calendar year - significantly better than the Eichel's career high which was a 61 game season)
57g, 109p in 100 games (from the beginning of 2017-18)

Are those projections?

 

[BertCorbeau]

I'm of the opinion that real points matter than "projections". I am also of the opinion that the ability to remain healthy should be rewarded.

So, yeah, in my opinion, Marner should be paid like all of his comparables were. Somewhere around 11% of the cap over 5 years. Which is about 9x5 right now.

Matthews should be paid based on his stats as well. Not PROJECTIONS of points. But REAL points. Getting hurt of the time should lower value in my opinion.

There is a reason it's flat out unprecedneted for a 74 point career high player signing for near 15% of the cap. Especially at 5 years.

Just because you think something should affect contract value doesn't mean it actually does in the real-world of the NHL.

Otherwise elite players, such as Eichel, wouldn't have gotten a $10 mill AAV contract, 13% of the cap, with a "career high" 57 points.

 

[ECanuck]

And yet Marner wants his money, or Mr. loyal Maple leaf will sit out, even though no one else will give him what he wants! Fortunately for him, there is one team that will give him what he wants and is counting on leafs stupidity to give it to him...

You know I would cave in for Mitch. I'd even brake the rules.

 

[Plub]

I'm not sure what to think of some of the opinions on here. Summer just needs to end.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I just hope he's signed for training camp.

It would be nice to start the season with the full line up

 

[Babcocks Marner]

I'm of the opinion that real points matter than "projections". I am also of the opinion that the ability to remain healthy should be rewarded.

So, yeah, in my opinion, Marner should be paid like all of his comparables were. Somewhere around 11% of the cap over 5 years. Which is about 9x5 right now.

Matthews should be paid based on his stats as well. Not PROJECTIONS of points. But REAL points. Getting hurt of the time should lower value in my opinion.

There is a reason it's flat out unprecedneted for a 74 point career high player signing for near 15% of the cap. Especially at 5 years.

Well, I do agree that real points do matter of course, but context is also important.

I get the argument, but scoring goals at a rate only seen a couple times in 20 years is impressive. I can't see how you wouldn't include that.

I had Matthews at 10.5x6 and Marner at 9x6. No arguments on the 5 years.... compared to what McDavid signed for, it's crazy.

I will probably be slightly disappointed at both, but I can live with a 1mil over payment for stars. Which I feel they both are.

Both signing for 5 years is a real kick in the shins.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Just because you think something should affect contract value doesn't mean it actually does in the real-world of the NHL.

Otherwise elite players, such as Eichel, wouldn't have gotten a $10 mill AAV contract, 13% of the cap, with a "career high" 57 points.

I tried looking for a Matthews thread to continue this conversation on. But I can't find one. Must be long burried.

My opinion has the entire precedent of the league backing me up. Matthews contract has nothing to back it up, and IS unprecedented.

There has NEVER been a career high 73 point forward (or anywhere CLOSE to that low) that's signed for 14-15% of the cap off of elc. Ever.

If you weren't good enough to to put up 100+ points, then you didn't get 14-15% of the cap. Similarly, if you couldn't stay healthy enough to put up 100+ points, then you didn't get 14-15% of the cap. It's NEVER happened.
There is simply NO precedent for the Matthews contract.

Sure, Eichel also has a universally panned horrible contract. (Which right off the bat is a red herring for me... when people feel the need to cite horrible contracts to rationalize leaf overpayments) But even that horrible contract had the saving grace of an 8 year term.

Dubas doubled down on the overpayment, but without the long term that made it somewhat bearable.

You can't act like I'm the crazy one for being critical of a contract that is without precedent. It's the contract that is crazy. Not me.

 

[4thline]

There has NEVER been a career high 73 point forward (or anywhere CLOSE to that low) that's signed for 14-15% of the cap off of elc. Ever.

If you weren't good enough to to put up 100+ points, then you didn't get 14-15% of the cap. Similarly, if you couldn't stay healthy enough to put up 100+ points, then you didn't get 14-15% of the cap. It's NEVER happened.
There is simply NO precedent for the Matthews contract.

It's not like Rick Nash got 13.85 % coming of a 57 point FULL SEASON. That NEVER happened.

Mockery of your oversight and posting style aside, have you stopped to consider whether or not there has been precedent of a player that charts out as well as Matthew's with multiple years of scoring rates but had the misfortune of missing time in back to back elc seasons?

 

[cupcrazyman]

Marner signs for 10.5 for the first year then use the Horton $$$ towards year 2,3,4 etc.

 

[The Podium]

Yes because a 60 point guy with 21 goals deserves to be paid more than guys like a Gaudreau, Monahan, Mckinnon, Lankskoy, Marchment, Pastrank, Krejci, Schiefele etc, etc, etc,...

Kevin Hayes just got 7.2 x 7 for 19 goals and 54 points

 

[MyBudJT]

Marner signs for 10.5 for the first year then use the Horton $$$ towards year 2,3,4 etc.

It doesn’t work that way. Marner will be using Horton’s $$$ this season.

 

[PromisedLand]

Kevin Hayes just got 7.2 x 7 for 19 goals and 54 points

First chia effed up with inflated contracts then Dubas followed now the entire league is probably gonna follow; UFA market is going to get saturated if RFAs demand more than UFAs

 

[tmlms13]

We should do a poll. How many Marner Contract threads will there be before he signs.

 

[The Podium]

First chia effed up with inflated contracts then Dubas followed now the entire league is probably gonna follow; UFA market is going to get saturated if RFAs demand more than UFAs

Hayes was a UFA

 

[613Leafer]

The offersheet threat seems to be all but gone. According to capfriendly, there are only six teams with $10M or more in capspace. Maybe another team could trade a player, or has a big LTIR contract that could let them do it, but regardless, clearly very few teams with enough capspace to be an offersheet threat.

Of the six that currently have the capspace, 4/6 have already traded their 2nd or 3rd round pick and would thus be unable to sign him to an offersheet under 10.5M (two 1sts + 2nd + 3rd compensation range), and would have to be above that in the four 1st rounder compensation range. If they want to do that and give up FOUR unprotected 1st rounders, be my guest (especially considering those four teams are Philly, NJD, Columbus, and Colorado). Personally I would be absolutely shocked if any team were willing to risk that.

The other two teams are Winnipeg (who still have Laine + Connor to sign, so in reality do not remotely have the capspace) and Ottawa (who are the cheapest team in the league and aren't about to define their internal capstructure with a huge Marner contract with Chabot, Tkachuk, etc looking for new contracts in the next few years).

 

[zeke]

I tried looking for a Matthews thread to continue this conversation on. But I can't find one. Must be long burried.

My opinion has the entire precedent of the league backing me up. Matthews contract has nothing to back it up, and IS unprecedented.

There has NEVER been a career high 73 point forward (or anywhere CLOSE to that low) that's signed for 14-15% of the cap off of elc. Ever.

If you weren't good enough to to put up 100+ points, then you didn't get 14-15% of the cap. Similarly, if you couldn't stay healthy enough to put up 100+ points, then you didn't get 14-15% of the cap. It's NEVER happened.
There is simply NO precedent for the Matthews contract.

Sure, Eichel also has a universally panned horrible contract. (Which right off the bat is a red herring for me... when people feel the need to cite horrible contracts to rationalize leaf overpayments) But even that horrible contract had the saving grace of an 8 year term.

Dubas doubled down on the overpayment, but without the long term that made it somewhat bearable.

You can't act like I'm the crazy one for being critical of a contract that is without precedent. It's the contract that is crazy. Not me.

Do you think dubas has ever even once looked at raw total points when determining a player's value?

 

[Nithoniniel]

Personally, I couldn't care less how our contracts adhere to a disjointed market. What I care about is making sure we get a ton of on-ice impact per cap dollar spent. Virtually every star player provides that in droves, even if they are a bit above what the market would dictate. The same market would pay significant dollars to players who provide an insignificant improvement over replacement level. So many players around the league who don't move the needle get millions added to their contracts basically on name recognition.

As for Matthews, second contracts have a closer correlation to PPG than raw point totals over the course of the ELC. There's no reason to look at the latter, and his contract is in the ballpark of what is expected. Still a bit high for sure, but not egregiously so.

 

[ACC1224]

Do you think dubas has ever even once looked at raw total points when determining a player's value?

Lets hope he looks at everything.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Do you think dubas has ever even once looked at raw total points when determining a player's value?

I assume he looks at more, and should.

As it stands now, it seems that he knows how much more value Matthews has then Marner, which is why we are still waiting.

Also, I need to put this at the end of every post now, I love Marner, not diminishing him in any way, but Matthews is just way more valuable.

 

[zeke]

Lets hope he looks at everything.

Looking at total points is automatically excluding all the good stuff.

 

[Peace Frog]

Are the Leafs only able to use Clarkson’s and Horton’s salary towards LTIR once the regular season begins? If so, doesn’t that basically mean that Dubas will only have the necessary cap space to sign Marner then?