Management Thread | Who needs draft picks Edition

[credulous]

I suspect the cap compliance plan is move Beauvilier at the draft after pumping his stats with Petey, Myers after his bonus is paid, and Pearson with a sweetener if he doesn't go to LTIR.

Which is disappointing. I think they should move one more big ticket out - preferably Boeser.

this is definitely the easiest path

they'd be betting big on podkolzin and kravtsov to step up and be effective wingers though. if miller is a center and beauvillier is gone things look really thin past kuzmenko, garland and mikheyev

 

[sting101]

Im glad you made it clear. Winning a cup is not important to you, Aqualini has a lifelong fan right here.

It would be awesome and that absolutely should be the goal of the organization and the critical analysis of the hockey team should be with that in mind. Mine is but i also like to be real about whats available and possible and judge from that perspective too. A lot of contenders will need some luck to actually pull it off thats a fact

That said i can have a healthy relationship with being a fan of a team that by odds has a 3% chance of that happening and even if things go bad that wont effect my moods to my family and friends and i would never have such vitriol for the players coaches or managers that i would ever feel if i met them that they owed me something or that i should make some dumbass comment about their hockey careers. 2011 taught me some hard lessons in getting too emotional.

Aquilini is irrelevant to me. Dont appreciate that he sticks his nose in things because he's short sighted but he's the owner and thats his prerogative. I havent spent a dime on the Canucks in years because the product doesn't deserve it from my perspective (although i've been spoiled with a lot of freebies) and the alternatives (Giants for me) are better. If it was something i wanted to do for 300-400$ and felt it was worth it i would go and have a good time win or lose just like i always do.

 

[Horvat1C]

studnicka doesn't belong anywhere near an nhl roster. i don't think raty does either. not yet. i also think pencilling in podkolzin and kravtsov is foolish. i think you give them both an opportunity to earn a spot next year but neither of them have really shown they can be consistent and productive nhl wingers. i'm not sold on aman as an nhler but it seems like tocchet is so he's probably a safe inclusion. dermott is probably a luxury the canucks can't afford. his QO is 1.75m which doesn't sound like much but the canucks are so close to the cap and dermott is such a question mark i think he gets non-tendered

an underrated part of this season's struggles has been that vancouver has played an absolute ton of marginal nhl players: lazar 45 games, dries 43 games, studnicka 36 games, stillman 32 games, burroughs 28 games, lockwood 13 games, pederson 11 games, brisebois 8 games, wolanin 7 games, rathbone 6 games, juulsen 5 games

and that assumes that hoglander, podkolzin, kravtsov, di giuseppe, myers and oel are *not* marginal nhlers right now

if vancouver wants to be competitive they need to have far, far more competition at the bottom of their roster. they need to find a way to bring in cheap, veteran depth so if podkolzin can't find his game he's not gifted 60 games because the best alternative is william karlsson

with that in mind, i think this is a more realistic roster "base":

kuzmenko - pettersson - beauvillier
mikheyev - miller - garland*
______ - ______ - ______
joshua - aman - ______

hughes - ______
______ - hronek
oel - bear**
______

demko
______

* could be boeser instead if garland proves easier to move
** needs a new contract

every blank spot in that lineup should ideally have multiple options. if you just gift hoglander, kravtsov and podkolzin the remaining wing spots and your next best option past them is studnicka or di giuseppe you could be throwing the season away before it even starts

I agree with your outline except I think Bear can be penciled in as a partner for Hughes, unless you want to move our 1st for a RHD.

I don't think its reasonable to suggest that all of Kravtsov, Podkolzin, Hoglander, Raty and Studnicka will not be on the team next year. The bottom 6 is pretty interchangeable and nothing is set in stone, but a couple of those guys have strong chances of earning a spot. A couple of those guys could be cycled out or sent down without a noticeable effect. We should also consider that management is hoping some of those guys will be better next year and will be developing them as well, so hopefully they improve throughout the year and moving forward. We'll see which names specifically earn a spot but at least two of them will be there, I'd bet on Podkolzin and Kravtsov.

Myers + NJD 4th to Anaheim for Future Considerations after Myers' signing bonus is paid seems solid for both teams. Vancouver get's the cap space and Anaheim get's a big RHD to provide protection on their blue line (which they need) and can flip him at the deadline with retention for something.

Garland to Washington for one of the 2025 3rds they have (WSH, BOS or COL) seems solid as they will have some room and will want to improve next year and that is a very cheap price to do so. This assumes they run a relatively cheap defense core, which they did this year.

That gives us around 11M in extra space to plug the 3C hole and the top-4 D hole along with the minor 4th line and bottom pair spots.

 

[sting101]

Moving away from politics and back to the team i would have zero issue moving Beauvillier if they are having issues moving Garland or Boeser. Given that statement i could see why PA would be confident he can craete a little flexibility

Hopefully they get some closure on Poolman soon. I dont see how a marginal 3D after missing 2 yrs is gonna come back and be effective or reliable so if he thinks he's gonna play i would just buy him out. Given the odd nature of head injuries he probably just stays on LTIR and makes his 6 million with a doctor signing off. Either way it's 2 million or 2.5 on LTIR saved so we can budget for that. My bet is he gets his doctors to sign off and collects 6 million over 2yrs as he's slated to get paid or he stupidly tries to resume his career gets bought out loses 2 million and then is trying to get a league minimum deal at 30 to possibly get another concussion already down 1.2m. Doesn't make any sense to come back

Pearson bought out is 1.8 million saved so that buys only a million towards the D once you replace him with Hoglander or whoever. We probably need his roster spot anyway though so his unreliability is reason enough.

Myers is interesting because he could be a flippable asset for a bottom feeder at the deadline and only would cost a million. Unlike Klingberg who didnt get much of a return but cost 7 million the cost reward is pretty small. The issue is that will be something that those teams are gonna want compensation for and we will need some certainty before using it elsewhere. We need the money for Petey and Hronek anyway so it's not like we can just go out and spend and commit to someone with it. Likely riding it out on a 3rd pair shared with Livingstone as it stands if we are lucky enough to get Jake.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I still think no matter how poorly he plays from here on out Myers moves pretty easily with no retention to Arizona if he's willing. They need bodies, and can pump him up with PP1 time.

 

[krutovsdonut]

i don't think we can move beauvillier. he's an overpaid rfa who can't be qualified without overpaying him even more and hence a cap dump. he will need to establish a track record of not being overpaid which will require more than a heater after joining a new team.

the best thing to do with him is play him.

 

[Canucker]

I still think no matter how poorly he plays from here on out Myers moves pretty easily with no retention to Arizona if he's willing. They need bodies, and can pump him up with PP1 time.

Why would he be willing though?

 

[arttk]

Why would he be willing though?

I think some other team would take a flyer and pay us to get Myers. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get like a 2nd rounder and everyone would be like wtf would a GM pay that much and then we all realize right, GMs are crazy short sighted idiots.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Why would he be willing though?

Because basic dudes love Arizona, he'll get showcased for another contract and he'll be traded to a playoff team

 

[VanJack]

I realize it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but most of the hockey sites are giving the Canucks a solid 'D' for their work at this year's TDL.

It's almost a universal 'two thumbs down' on the Hronek deal. And other sites are seriously wondering about the rumors of a Miller deal, with no salary retention.

Apparently the sticking point was that the Canucks wanted NHL-ready young prospects, instead of just draft picks for Miller. Of course carrying both Miller and Boeser into the off-season results in a crippling cap situation for the Canucks.

Their only option is moving those two players; or expensive buyouts for the likes of OEL, Pearson or Myers.

So despite the denials of the GM, if indeed some teams were offering high draft picks for Miller; than it's an epic fail that he wasn't moved.

 

[Canucker]

I think some other team would take a flyer and pay us to get Myers. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get like a 2nd rounder and everyone would be like wtf would a GM pay that much and then we all realize right, GMs are crazy short sighted idiots.

Possibly, I'm not sure who or why and I'm not suggesting its impossible...I just don't see it as a likely outcome.

Because basic dudes love Arizona, he'll get showcased for another contract and he'll be traded to a playoff team

Myers is married with 2 kids, why uproot for a partial season to play for a bottom feeding team, likely get traded again closer to the deadline and then maybe have to move again as a UFA? It just doesn't make any sense to me, maybe it happens, but I just don't see what his motivation is to go to Arizona.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Myers is married with 2 kids, why uproot for a partial season to play for a bottom feeding team, likely get traded again closer to the deadline and then maybe have to move again as a UFA? It just doesn't make any sense to me, maybe it happens, but I just don't see what his motivation is to go to Arizona.

I agree, it's just a possibility and Arizona has the best internal fit from their point of view. I think he can be moved somewhere, however. Arizona is certainly a candidate to launder his cap hit, as they'll have two retention slots back by then.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Can someone please explain why Tyler Myers looked OK last year, then this year looked like a dumpster fire on skates but more recently looks OK again?

The quality of his play wildly fluctuates.

Is it Tocchet?
Is it that the pressure is now off, and golfing season is upon us?
Is it the return of 'Bubble' Demko?
Is it reduced ice time?
Is it that the TDL has come and gone?
Any or all of the above?

 

[4th line culture]

I agree, it's just a possibility and Arizona has the best internal fit from their point of view. I think he can be moved somewhere, however. Arizona is certainly a candidate to launder his cap hit, as they'll have two retention slots back by then.

He will have a limited no trade right?

 

[bandwagonesque]

He will have a limited no trade right?

10 teams.

 

[Diogenes92]

Can please someone explain why Tyler Myers looked OK last year, then this year looked like a dumpster fire on skates but more recently looks OK again?

The quality of his play wildly fluctuates.

Is it Tocchet?
Is it that the pressure is now off, and golfing season is upon us?
Is it the return of 'Bubble' Demko?
Is it reduced ice time?
Is it that the TDL has come and gone?
Any or all of the above?

He doesn't have a lot of Dzone IQ. When he is partnered with a similar player such as Stillman, he struggles mightily.

He plays better when the pressure is off. ie Garbage time.

He was massively overrated to begin with and was never worth his contract.

Tocchets strategy shelters the dmen more than Bruce's strategy did. The forwards support their D better now.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[4th line culture]

10 teams.

I would assume arizona would be on that list, probably most of the bottom feeders with cap space.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

this is definitely the easiest path

they'd be betting big on podkolzin and kravtsov to step up and be effective wingers though. if miller is a center and beauvillier is gone things look really thin past kuzmenko, garland and mikheyev

Those two, or Hoglander, or Joshua, or Di Giuseppe...honestly I don't mind them betting on that group. Plus there are always a few effective wingers hanging around available for cheap 1-year deals once the dust has settled after free agency opens (I bet the Canucks could snag Alex Kerfoot for cheap this summer).

 

[Hodgy]

One thing that is hard to predict in terms of players’ waiving no trade clauses is how the particular player reacts to being told the team doesn’t want him.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I would assume arizona would be on that list, probably most of the bottom feeders with cap space.

I wouldn't assume this at all. 10 isn't a big number, and there are various reasons players don't want to go to certain teams and cities.

 

[Tact]

I think at this point, we may need to take a page out of Pittsburghs book and just put them on waivers.

NTC’s don’t work for the waiver wire. And hope some bottom team picks up Myers, Pearson etc. for 1 year. If someone puts in a claim, it’s a win.

 

[Diversification]

To each their own but the OEL buyout is the most obvious move to me.

Spending $19M for nothing seems disastrous, but spending 30M to play a trash player and could literally be the difference between playoff revenue and no playoff revenue.

$19M is also going to be spread over like 8 years so it really won't hurt as much.

This buyout is the correct play given their risky strategy. If you're going to push your chips in and re-tool rapidly around EP and QH (the hockey equivalent of drawing an inside straight on the river, to continue the poker analogy), you buy out OEL this offseason.

Cap penalties to 2030 are nothing in this scenario. If the goal is to mine EP's and QH's peaks for a push for a Cup, you either succeed in your goal or you re-build and then a long term cap penalty to 2030 is irrelevant.

But of course, it's not my $19M. But it's also not my $30M either. But here's where the math gets a bit more thorny: It's not $19M over 8 years. It's $19.33M + 7.26M*4 years because the $19M will not be used on salary and there will still be a need to fill up that cap space. So over the 4 year period during the remainder of OEL's contract, it's ($2.416M + $7.26M) * 4 years = $38.7. And then you tack on the 9.7M still owed for the next 4 years: $48.4M total. That's a sizeable difference versus $30M.

Any way you look at it, it's a very painful buyout. So even if you're feeling punitive towards our unlikeable and meddlesome owner, $18.4M is still a lot to ask a guy to cough up as a penance.

But if FrAq does authorize this buyout, it will truly signify that management and ownership are on the same page to just go for it, damn the torpedoes.

 

[MarkMM]

Why would he be willing though?

I think some other team would take a flyer and pay us to get Myers. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get like a 2nd rounder and everyone would be like wtf would a GM pay that much and then we all realize right, GMs are crazy short sighted idiots.

Because basic dudes love Arizona, he'll get showcased for another contract and he'll be traded to a playoff team

Arizona would be ideal but I could see them being on his NTC list. Still, I'd expect he's moveable.

There are still GM's that love his combination of tools, and the relatively cheap cash cost would appeal to some. That, and I think it's a sellable idea that on a more structured team with deeper defense where he isn't played over his head, Myers can be valuable.

Can someone please explain why Tyler Myers looked OK last year, then this year looked like a dumpster fire on skates but more recently looks OK again?

The quality of his play wildly fluctuates.

Is it Tocchet?
Is it that the pressure is now off, and golfing season is upon us?
Is it the return of 'Bubble' Demko?
Is it reduced ice time?
Is it that the TDL has come and gone?
Any or all of the above?

He doesn't have a lot of Dzone IQ. When he is partnered with a similar player such as Stillman, he struggles mightily.

He plays better when the pressure is off. ie Garbage time.

He was massively overrated to begin with and was never worth his contract.

Tocchets strategy shelters the dmen more than Bruce's strategy did. The forwards support their D better now.

Just my 2 cents.

All this. He can be good in the right situation and some GM's I'd think would be willing to make that bet.

One thing that is hard to predict in terms of players’ waiving no trade clauses is how the particular player reacts to being told the team doesn’t want him.

I think he's also young enough that he's got to be thinking about his future. Let's say we have not only Hronek but bring back Bear, maybe even Schenn and sign Livingstone, or just some combination of that. Myers would be on the outside looking in, he wouldn't be getting a contract here next year so as much as he wouldn't want to move, well, he'll be moving anyway, so the smartest thing would be to go to a place where he can excel and re-build his value.

As much as he might not want to move, espeically to a bottom dweller like Arizona, the worst thing for him would be to be on a team that didn't want him in his contract year.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Also, I recall a poster on your board that I saw on the main boards a lot, erub ot mogilny, did he chance his username?

@M2Beezy

 

[andora]

This buyout is the correct play given their risky strategy. If you're going to push your chips in and re-tool rapidly around EP and QH (the hockey equivalent of drawing an inside straight on the river, to continue the poker analogy), you buy out OEL this offseason.

Cap penalties to 2030 are nothing in this scenario. If the goal is to mine EP's and QH's peaks for a push for a Cup, you either succeed in your goal or you re-build and then a long term cap penalty to 2030 is irrelevant.

But of course, it's not my $19M. But it's also not my $30M either. But here's where the math gets a bit more thorny: It's not $19M over 8 years. It's $19.33M + 7.26M*4 years because the $19M will not be used on salary and there will still be a need to fill up that cap space. So over the 4 year period during the remainder of OEL's contract, it's ($2.416M + $7.26M) * 4 years = $38.7. And then you tack on the 9.7M still owed for the next 4 years: $48.4M total. That's a sizeable difference versus $30M.

Any way you look at it, it's a very painful buyout. So even if you're feeling punitive towards our unlikeable and meddlesome owner, $18.4M is still a lot to ask a guy to cough up as a penance.

But if FrAq does authorize this buyout, it will truly signify that management and ownership are on the same page to just go for it, damn the torpedoes.

With all that said - if their is noone they like enough to get to replace him due to whatever reason i could see him staying, minutes reduced to a 2 or 3 LD

Tocchets system finally gives support to the defence, so foot speed can be compensated a little

I would bet the inclination right now is to try OEL qith hronek, take the puck moving off of OEL