Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[93gilmour93]

Only the leafs could get so lucky with picks/players, gather a great young core, and **** it up this badly.

I'm still laughing that they gave Marleau a 3 year, 35+ contract knowing it'd overlap with Matthews/Marner's RFA years.

So when the leafs signed Marleau you though Matthews and Marner would cost 22 million for both coming off ELC? I think someone is lying here.

 

[93gilmour93]

takes you 2 minutes on google to find that answer.

Soiler alert: Toronto is not even close to MTL for the number of fans.

That's quite the "soiler" you dropped on everyone

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

That's quite the "soiler" you dropped on everyone

great come back

 

[Flukeshot]

I am not sure exactly how the RFA compensation is calculated but if it is percentage of cap consistent than if the cap goes to $83m, $10.66m would be the threshold before 4 1sts.

To me 5 x $10.66m then becomes the starting point for Marners contract.

Other teams can confidently offer that and only give up 1-1-2-3.

Yes Toronto would match. So again that's where I think Marners camp places the bar at minimum.

 

[93gilmour93]

great come back

Why thank you

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I am not sure exactly how the RFA compensation is calculated but if it is percentage of cap consistent than if the cap goes to $83m, $10.66m would be the threshold before 4 1sts.

To me 5 x $10.66m then becomes the starting point for Marners contract.

Other teams can confidently offer that and only give up 1-1-2-3.

Yes Toronto would match. So again that's where I think Marners camp places the bar at minimum.

If that is the starting point for Marner imagine what Rantanen and Point will want...

 

[Cotton]

takes you 2 minutes on google to find that answer.

Spoiler alert: Toronto is not even close to MTL for the number of fans.

But it only takes 2 seconds to realize that its obviously BS.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

So when the leafs signed Marleau you though Matthews and Marner would cost 22 million for both coming off ELC? I think someone is lying here.

Its a good thing they fired Lou before he could do anything else stupid.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Yeah, until you realize Kane was signed five years ago under a lower cap, and they already gave Matthews more than Kane under a 5 year term.

Wingers and Centres.

 

[Freudian]

Marner at $10.5M/year is perfectly fine. If the Matthews contract hadn't moved the ceiling for young players not named McDavid, perhaps Leafs would be able to pull that one off.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If that is the starting point for Marner imagine what Rantanen and Point will want...

COL should be fine with Rantanen. They have a very solid cap situation. They can match pretty much any offer sheet.

This summer is going to be really interesting for RFAs. There has been a cultural shift with the top RFAs where signing as soon as possible is no longer in vogue. There is also this idea that the cap is going to continue going up a lot, and RFAs who signed too early and for too little in the past got burned. I wonder if we'll see a return to more bridge and shorter term deals.

To put things in perspective, Eichel's contract is about 11.13M when adjusted for an 83.5M cap. Draisaitl's contract is about 9.45.

Matthews contract is what really throws a wrench into everything for the entire league. Now these teams are going to have to argue "you're not Matthews" to the Point, and Rantanen's, or argue "you're not as close as you think to that Matthews contract" to the second tier guys like Matthew Tkachuk. The Leafs must have been really afraid of an offer sheet to sign that contract, because it looks like it pushed things forward for everybody.

It'll be difficult for COL to point to Eichel's contract and try to get Rantanen signed to a similar amount at at 8 x 11.XX, but that's what I would consider to be "fair".

I think the Matthews contract might lead to a few 3 year type bridge deals. Offer sheets won't come for certain players. Players won't want to take a hair cut on a long term deal, and a few teams might just think how are we supposed to sign this guy to a contract that is compared in relation to the Matthews deal. They will sign a bridge deal hoping that the market re-adjusts itself.

Point is a different animal because it's not a COL situation where they could probably sign Rantanen to 12-13 x 8 years just to get it done and have him cost controlled, and they probably wouldn't regret it long term because MacKinnon isn't up for a long time, and Landeskog while he had a career year probably isn't a point per game player long term, so he won't be in a position to ask for the same cap hit percentage as Rantanen (even know Landeskog is a UFA). Everything Tampa has done in the past points to them bridging Point. Looking at their cap situation, if they bridge him 3 years, a bunch of players like Johnson have their full NTCs expire, and there would also be other money off the books, they can do that and kick the can down the road. If Point doesn't want to do that, and wants to cash in with a big 12-14 million dollar type offer sheet, then it won't happen, and I can't see how Tampa could match that kind of contract and stay under the cap.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

SJ sharks have a projected 20+M in cap space and the picks to do it if they do not sign EK. They are a team that historically picks low in the draft.

Huh? The sharks dont have their first this year. Which doesn't matter for offer sheet. But they dont have their 2020 first either.

 

[TorontoTrades]

7 year x 10.16

 

[SnizzNasty88]

Honest question to many Leaf fans... What yearly number would you be comfortable with?

I know many are praying its under 10, some feel itll be about 10 and many are thinking itll be Matthews type money. Kind of looks like the range i see in all threads are between 9.5 - 11.5 per year. Alot of messages result in arguements rather than many fans actually saying what they hope the price is.

Obviously Leaf fans would pray for as low as possible but realistically what yearly number would you be OK with?

I know numbers change with how long the contract is so you can also throw in length too.

I am just more less curious cause there are many posters that reply to these messages and are quick to defend their team and get into heavy debates with others but i have yet to see what number they would be happy with.

I would be okay with $11.16M, it’s fair for both sides and will keep Marner’s camp happy. It’s up to Dubas to work around that with regards to clearing out dead weight salary but $11.16M while pricey is fine with me, he deserves it. The term is where the questions come in. I want at least a 6-7 year term.

 

[seanlinden]

Players are humble and take discounts, unless you play for the leafs, then you ask for the moon and more.

Leaf players will take a team friendly deal to keep a good team together, until contract negotiations start, then they ask for the moon and more.

Objectively, Marner doesn't seem like your typical humble player....

This guy sells himself out for pretty much anything. I do not recall a player in more recent memory who has appeared in ads for as many different companies as Marner has:
- Intact Insurance
- Visa
- Apple
- I believe he's also now doing some food delivery startup as well

 

[DaPhazz]

So when the leafs signed Marleau you though Matthews and Marner would cost 22 million for both coming off ELC? I think someone is lying here.

The situation was pretty obvious yeah...

 

[93gilmour93]

The situation was pretty obvious yeah...

I'm sure it was. At that point we never saw a contract worth 11+ on a yearly cap hit but you saw it coming with the Leafs kids. Lol

 

[Riseonfire]

I can't imagine him signing for anything less that 10M per season.

Good luck Toronto.


Also, Tor will be a great case study for forwards. Can you succeed with 3 forwards eating ~30+M of the cap? Or even 4 forwards eating nearly 40M?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Huh? The sharks dont have their first this year. Which doesn't matter for offer sheet. But they dont have their 2020 first either.

According to cap friendly they have the 4 1sts necessary to make an offer sheet this summer. The picks start counting next draft.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

According to cap friendly they have the 4 1sts necessary to make an offer sheet this summer. The picks start counting next draft.

Yeah which according to cap friendly they dont have. They traded a first for kane and one for Karlsson

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Yeah which according to cap friendly they dont have.

Try this. All teams listed with their logos that can tender an offer sheet in the following range. The Sharks logo is there at the moment.

$10,148,303 - ∞

4 First Round Picks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Offer Sheet Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Wingers and Centres.

Strange argument to make considering winger Kane has gotten the same exact contract as center Toews both times.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

COL should be fine with Rantanen. They have a very solid cap situation. They can match pretty much any offer sheet.

This summer is going to be really interesting for RFAs. There has been a cultural shift with the top RFAs where signing as soon as possible is no longer in vogue. There is also this idea that the cap is going to continue going up a lot, and RFAs who signed too early and for too little in the past got burned. I wonder if we'll see a return to more bridge and shorter term deals.

To put things in perspective, Eichel's contract is about 11.13M when adjusted for an 83.5M cap. Draisaitl's contract is about 9.45.

Matthews contract is what really throws a wrench into everything for the entire league. Now these teams are going to have to argue "you're not Matthews" to the Point, and Rantanen's, or argue "you're not as close as you think to that Matthews contract" to the second tier guys like Matthew Tkachuk. The Leafs must have been really afraid of an offer sheet to sign that contract, because it looks like it pushed things forward for everybody.

It'll be difficult for COL to point to Eichel's contract and try to get Rantanen signed to a similar amount at at 8 x 11.XX, but that's what I would consider to be "fair".

I think the Matthews contract might lead to a few 3 year type bridge deals. Offer sheets won't come for certain players. Players won't want to take a hair cut on a long term deal, and a few teams might just think how are we supposed to sign this guy to a contract that is compared in relation to the Matthews deal. They will sign a bridge deal hoping that the market re-adjusts itself.

Point is a different animal because it's not a COL situation where they could probably sign Rantanen to 12-13 x 8 years just to get it done and have him cost controlled, and they probably wouldn't regret it long term because MacKinnon isn't up for a long time, and Landeskog while he had a career year probably isn't a point per game player long term, so he won't be in a position to ask for the same cap hit percentage as Rantanen (even know Landeskog is a UFA). Everything Tampa has done in the past points to them bridging Point. Looking at their cap situation, if they bridge him 3 years, a bunch of players like Johnson have their full NTCs expire, and there would also be other money off the books, they can do that and kick the can down the road. If Point doesn't want to do that, and wants to cash in with a big 12-14 million dollar type offer sheet, then it won't happen, and I can't see how Tampa could match that kind of contract and stay under the cap.

Oh for sure, Colorado will have no problem signing Rantenen but if Marner starts at 10.5 million and leafs want to sign him asap then I see no reason Rantenen cant point at Marner's contract and ask for more.

Ya it is a bad shift for the league paying RFA top dollars and will probably start to hurt the cap floor teams soon.

I agree the Matthews contract has reset the landscape again. Dubas must have really though a OS was possible which I think is a mistake.

I dont see why Point would take a bridge though. If everyone else is getting their nice long term lockout proof contracts I don't see why he would be okay taking a short term bridge that may end up with him getting screwed during a potential lockout in a few years.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Try this. All teams listed with their logos that can tender an offer sheet in the following range. The Sharks logo is there at the moment.

$10,148,303 - ∞

4 First Round Picks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Offer Sheet Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

They dont have their 2020 1st round pick. The sens own it. So unless the sens give it back they cant do it.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

They dont have their 2020 1st round pick. The sens own it. So unless the sens give it back they cant do it.

So capfriendly was correct. The Sharks can still potentially still offer sheet Marner. There is the answer to your original question.