Oh for sure, Colorado will have no problem signing Rantenen but if Marner starts at 10.5 million and leafs want to sign him asap then I see no reason Rantenen cant point at Marner's contract and ask for more.
Ya it is a bad shift for the league paying RFA top dollars and will probably start to hurt the cap floor teams soon.
I agree the Matthews contract has reset the landscape again. Dubas must have really though a OS was possible which I think is a mistake.
I dont see why Point would take a bridge though. If everyone else is getting their nice long term lockout proof contracts I don't see why he would be okay taking a short term bridge that may end up with him getting screwed during a potential lockout in a few years.
Marner has more leverage because the Leafs cannot match offer sheets due to their cap situation.
Rantanen can point to certain comparable contracts, and they will drive up his value, but Colorado also has the luxury of being able to say no and drag it out beyond July 1st. Rantanen could sign an offer sheet, but a team is going to have to be willing to pay him far beyond his actual value AND give up 4 1st round picks. This is because Colorado can (and I assume will) match anything other than an absurd overpayment.
With Marner, if the Leafs are drawing the line in the sand at 10.5M, that's a pretty easy offer sheet situation. It's not a scenario where a team has to pay Marner 15 or 16 million to force the Leafs not to match. A team could come in with a 6 year 12 million dollar contract and the Leafs would not match. I think that's why we'll see Marner dealt at the draft.
I think the best offer sheet situation for a team would be to negotiate what amounts to an unofficial 9 year contract with Marner. Basically the team says, we have the cap space now, we'll give you a 1 year contract at close to max with the verbal understanding that next off season we extend you 8 years at 12 million. That way, it's really a front loaded 9 year 12.52 million dollar AAV contract (1 year at 16.7+8 years at 12). Now of course, Marner's qualifying offer would be max, and he could turn around and screw the team by refusing to sign the second contract next off season, but the odds of an agent and player burning a team like that are probably not high. While a 12M AAV is very high right now, if Marner can continue as he is, it won't take long before just like the contracts Eichel and Draisaitl got, that it settles in nicely and becomes below market value due to the rising cap.