Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[Loosie]

The 2020 1st is conditional on Karlsson being on an Eastern Conference roster during 2018-19.

2020 NHL Entry Draft Pending Transactions

That pick won't transfer, so the Sharks will have it.

If they sign Karlsson to an extension or make the Cup Finals, they'll lose their 2021 1st though and then wouldn't be able to use an offersheet.

Here the full trade with conditions. The 2020 1st is for the Sharks making the playoffs. IF Karlsson ended up on an Eastern Conference roster it would have been an additional 1st before 2022:

Ottawa Senators Acquire:

Dylan DeMelo
Chris Tierney
Rūdolfs Balcers
Joshua Norris (Signing Rights)
2020 conditional 1st round pick* (SJS)
2021 conditional 2nd round pick** (SJS)
2019 conditional 2nd round pick*** (FLA - #44)
conditional 1st round pick****

****Sens receive a 1st round pick from the Sharks (no later than 2022) if Karlsson is on an Eastern Conference roster (reserve list) during the 2018-19 season.
*Conditions: Ottawa receives Sharks 2019 1st round pick if Sharks do not make the playoffs. If Sharks make the playoffs, Ottawa receives Sharks 2020 1st.
*Result: Sharks made the 2019 playoffs, Ottawa receives Sharks 2020 1st round pick
**Conditions: Sens receive Sharks 2021 2nd round pick if Karlsson is re-signed. The selection upgrades to a 2021 1st if Sharks reach the Stanley Cup final in 2019.
***Conditions: 2019 2nd round pick is the higher of the two picks the Sharks currently own: Panthers and their own.
Result: Ottawa will receive Panthers 2019 2nd round pick.

 

[Cor]

According to cap friendly they have the 4 1sts necessary to make an offer sheet this summer. The picks start counting next draft.

If they offersheet Marner on July 1, they need their 2020 first rounder.

They don’t.

So they can’t.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

The 2020 1st is conditional on Karlsson being on an Eastern Conference roster during 2018-19.

2020 NHL Entry Draft Pending Transactions

That pick won't transfer, so the Sharks will have it.

If they sign Karlsson to an extension and make the Cup Finals, they'll lose their 2021 1st though and then wouldn't be able to use an offersheet.

No it’s not. The 2020 1st is unconditional.

 

[hyduK]

So worst case is an offer sheet where the Leafs get 4 firsts they can use to make two blockbuster deals and use cap room to take a run at a big name.

Actually with 8 firsts in 4 years the Leafs would have the ammo to make block buster every year.

I'm supposed to be upset as a Leafs fan over this situation? It's win or win.

It's certainly an interesting option.

Granted, the Leafs own firsts are guaranteed to be pretty low for the next 4 years. Lets say they're ~27th overall.

I can't imagine a basement dweller giving up 4 1sts for Marner. It's gonna be a team that, with Marner, will at least be decent. Lets call those picks 18-20 overall being conservative, on the basis that it would be dumb for a team in the lottery to risk giving up those four 1sts + a team willing to pay Marner 10+M probably is spending close to the cap so should be at least competitive.

So you got 4 very late firsts, 4 mid-late picks. Assuming Marner is gone that gives Leafs the flexibility to keep Johnsson/Kap/Brown so they shouldn't need too much help on the wings. But you could package 2-3 of the firsts and depending on the other parts of the package get a bonafide top pairing D (especially if they're willing to package someone like Sandin). Also gives them the flexibility to put an intriguing Nylander or Kadri package together and lure another high end player.

They'd still be left with an influx of 1sts and be able to make decent splashes at the TDL during their cup window.


It's still risky though imo. We overvalue picks here and if they ARE mid-late picks coming back, they might not fetch the high end players that would be needed to make it worthwhile.

 

[Loosie]

No it’s not. The 2020 1st is unconditional.

It did have a condition, but it's been met (The Sharks had to make the playoffs this year.)

 

[93gilmour93]

People saw 3 players with 60+ point seasons in their rookie/2nd year. Signing a player to essentially unvoidable contract that overlaps with them become RFAs was stupid. There was a reason no team would give Marleau 3 years. 35+ contracts are awful.

Who cares if a ufa overlaps a couple contracts. Nobody was thinking it would cost as much as it will cost the leafs for the kids. Again when Marleau signed nobody was saying Nylander will get 6.9, Matthews would get 11.6 and Marner getting 10+ million. After the McDavid contract things changed. The league had never seen money that size getting handed out after ELC contracts

 

[4chandler]

It's certainly an interesting option.

Granted, the Leafs own firsts are guaranteed to be pretty low for the next 4 years. Lets say they're ~27th overall.

I can't imagine a basement dweller giving up 4 1sts for Marner. It's gonna be a team that, with Marner, will at least be decent. Lets call those picks 18-20 overall being conservative, on the basis that it would be dumb for a team in the lottery to risk giving up those four 1sts + a team willing to pay Marner 10+M probably is spending close to the cap so should be at least competitive.

So you got 4 very late firsts, 4 mid-late picks. Assuming Marner is gone that gives Leafs the flexibility to keep Johnsson/Kap/Brown so they shouldn't need too much help on the wings. But you could package 2-3 of the firsts and depending on the other parts of the package get a bonafide top pairing D (especially if they're willing to package someone like Sandin). Also gives them the flexibility to put an intriguing Nylander or Kadri package together and lure another high end player.

They'd still be left with an influx of 1sts and be able to make decent splashes at the TDL during their cup window.


It's still risky though imo. We overvalue picks here and if they ARE mid-late picks coming back, they might not fetch the high end players that would be needed to make it worthwhile.

Again you don't use those late picks you trade them.

Always rebuilding teams looking to get rid of big name pieces.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

It did have a condition, but it's been met (The Sharks had to make the playoffs this year.)

Well technically they were going to lose it either way. If they missed the playoffs, Buffalo would get the pick in 2020.

 

[yababy]

I mean Kane is a far superior offensive talent to Toews....Marner isnt compared to Matthew's. Centres that score a bunch of goals make more money then wingers. I didnt think this was a hot take...but here we are.

Marner is a winger that stirs the drink. How many are out there? Kane, Kucherov, Taylor Hall, and Marner.
Tavares reached career high in goals because of Marner. Guy drives a line like a centre...the argument to pay him less because he's a winger is just silly.

 

[hyduK]

Again you don't use those late picks you trade them.

Always rebuilding teams looking to get rid of big name pieces.

Yeah, absolutely you trade them (well, a lot of them at least). Again though, you gotta figure out what you can get back.

Late firsts aren't worth THAT much. You need to package a few of them together to get a solid player. Is the value you're gonna get out of them gonna be worth what you're losing in Marner?

What would really make it worth it? It seems like it would be a top pairing RHD that would truly make the tradeoff worth it? What's the gonna take? Honestly, it might be all 4 of the firsts and then some.

 

[yababy]

Yeah I do read forums for other sports, and I don't really see the same type of hate for other teams. Maybe I'm biased because I'm a leafs fan, but I really don't see the same type of hate for other teams

Oilers

 

[al secord]

If they offersheet Marner on July 1, they need their 2020 first rounder.

They don’t.

So they can’t.

I'm surprised such a genius could not grasp this concept.

 

[Leafs87]

It will be a total failure if Marner gets more than Kutcherov got. Kutcherov is a UFA most of his contract and had back to back monster seasons.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Marner has more leverage because the Leafs cannot match offer sheets due to their cap situation.

Rantanen can point to certain comparable contracts, and they will drive up his value, but Colorado also has the luxury of being able to say no and drag it out beyond July 1st. Rantanen could sign an offer sheet, but a team is going to have to be willing to pay him far beyond his actual value AND give up 4 1st round picks. This is because Colorado can (and I assume will) match anything other than an absurd overpayment.

With Marner, if the Leafs are drawing the line in the sand at 10.5M, that's a pretty easy offer sheet situation. It's not a scenario where a team has to pay Marner 15 or 16 million to force the Leafs not to match. A team could come in with a 6 year 12 million dollar contract and the Leafs would not match. I think that's why we'll see Marner dealt at the draft.

I think the best offer sheet situation for a team would be to negotiate what amounts to an unofficial 9 year contract with Marner. Basically the team says, we have the cap space now, we'll give you a 1 year contract at close to max with the verbal understanding that next off season we extend you 8 years at 12 million. That way, it's really a front loaded 9 year 12.52 million dollar AAV contract (1 year at 16.7+8 years at 12). Now of course, Marner's qualifying offer would be max, and he could turn around and screw the team by refusing to sign the second contract next off season, but the odds of an agent and player burning a team like that are probably not high. While a 12M AAV is very high right now, if Marner can continue as he is, it won't take long before just like the contracts Eichel and Draisaitl got, that it settles in nicely and becomes below market value due to the rising cap.

I guess it depends if you think offersheets will actually happen and I dont think we will see any this summer.

Someone could of offersheeted nylander for like a 1st and a 2nd rounder and we didnt see that at all.

The longer colardo waits there will more deals Rantanen can use for reference that will be signed so I think waiting for too long could be a mistake for any team trying to sign an RFA this summer. You dont want another team to cave and end up driving your RFA salaries up.

I also think any team should hesitate to match a huge OS (if it happens) that yields 4 1st rounders + like say 14 million in cap space. I think most teams would hesitate to overpay a player like 4 million a season while also giving up 4 1st round and in general tying up so much cap in one player (especially a winger).

It will certainly be an interesting summer but I really dont see Marner being dealt. There are so many players who would be dealt before Marner.

 

[Tripod]

Is it just me, but 11x7 seems like the sweet spot. It says to Marner:

You are on the same tier as the other 2 since you are matching JT's exact contract
With Matthews signed for 5, WN 5, JT for 6, having Marner for 7 fits the spacing

It also says to Matthews that you are the franchise guy, more money and less term.

Marner is happy, Matthews is happy, JT is happy.

Pay your stars. It rarely is the issue for future problems. The problems occur from overpaying the middle line forwards and the bottom 4 Dmen. All people who are replaceable.

And I believe Dubas will do just that.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Who cares if a ufa overlaps a couple contracts. Nobody was thinking it would cost as much as it will cost the leafs for the kids. Again when Marleau signed nobody was saying Nylander will get 6.9, Matthews would get 11.6 and Marner getting 10+ million. After the McDavid contract things changed. The league had never seen money that size getting handed out after ELC contracts

I think Crosby still has the highest cap hit % ever on his first contract (17.30%), however the franchise and elite level players (not generational) are certainly getting paid a lot more at a young age.

In the end this will hurt the cap floor teams the most as they wont be able to pay their RFAs. Probably a lockout coming

 

[tacogeoff]

I think it will be very tough to keep Marner under the 10.5 mark. It should be an interesting negotiation.

I wonder if he will hold out like W.N. if they try to low ball him?

 

[Loosie]

I think it will be very tough to keep Marner under the 10.5 mark. It should be an interesting negotiation.

I wonder if he will hold out like W.N. if they try to low ball him?

Dubas won't let a hold out happen. He admitted that he made a mistake in that sense with the Nylander negotiation.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Just curious how many "perennial " contenders have the cap space to make a move like this?

According to cap friendly there are many teams. I count 8 on this list that are still playing. Though I haven't had a chance to go through each draft from 2020 - 2024.

But cap friendly is a reliable site that Bob Mckenzie routinely cites.

$10,148,303 - ∞ 4 First Round Picks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Looking at the teams above on CapFriendly eligible for offer sheeting Marner. I wonder if Jarmo would do this? He is a bold GM. They have cap space, they have the picks. They also have a young team that right now I would say is one of the favourites to win the Cup.

 

[Loosie]

Looking at the teams above on CapFriendly eligible for offer sheeting Marner. I wonder if Jarmo would do this? He is a bold GM. They have cap space, they have the picks. They also have a young team that right now I would say is one of the favourites to win the Cup.

They would have to not re-sign Duchene. Otherwise they don't have their 2020 1st round pick. I don't think they'd be able to offersheet Marner until Duchene signs somewhere, as there would be an unresolved condition on the 2020 1st.

 

[Seanaconda]

CapFriendly does say that the Sharks can offer an offer sheet to Marner at the ~$10.2M figure which requires four first round picks as compensation, but after reading the CBA I’m pretty sure they actually got that wrong.

I just think cap friendly has updated the sharks hitting the condition of making the playoffs this year that sent their 2020 first to the sens tbh.

Oh it's been answered already sorry.

 

[4chandler]

Yeah, absolutely you trade them (well, a lot of them at least). Again though, you gotta figure out what you can get back.

Late firsts aren't worth THAT much. You need to package a few of them together to get a solid player. Is the value you're gonna get out of them gonna be worth what you're losing in Marner?

What would really make it worth it? It seems like it would be a top pairing RHD that would truly make the tradeoff worth it? What's the gonna take? Honestly, it might be all 4 of the firsts and then some.

Every superstar for picks package deal usually falls short of 2 late firsts.

HFboards fair value =/= Reality

Look at Karlsson, late first, conditional 1st and some beer league prospects

Duchene at TDL first and conditional 1st

Kessel? Leafs basically got Kapanen and a conditional 1st pick.

Go back in history, prime Jarg for 3 no name prospects

Pronger ditto


There is always a superstar that hits the trade market to 'hurt' their value and 2 late first is a kings ransom.

On the block right now, is Trouba going to land more than 2 late firsts?

 

[Seanaconda]

I think Crosby still has the highest cap hit % ever on his first contract (17.30%), however the franchise and elite level players (not generational) are certainly getting paid a lot more at a young age.

In the end this will hurt the cap floor teams the most as they wont be able to pay their RFAs. Probably a lockout coming

Ovies has to be higher , idk how cap friendly calculates it but he signed at the same time off his elc for 9.5 per year vs Crosby at 8.7

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I just think cap friendly has updated the sharks hitting the condition of making the playoffs this year that sent their 2020 first to the sens tbh.

Oh it's been answered already sorry.

It was updated at the moment that the Karlsson trade happened because the Sharks were guaranteed to lose their 2020 1st round pick once the trade happened. That is reflected in the compensation for every other offer sheet including a 1st round pick, where the Sharks are not eligible

The error that I am almost 100% CapFriendly is making is that they are mis-reading a crucial portion of the CBA.

“Clubs owing three (3) draft selections in the same round must have them available in the next four (4) drafts, and so on.”

Clearly, they understood the compensation for clubs owing 3 draft selections in the same round, ans that is why they say the Sharks cannot make an offer sheet that requires 3 first round picks as compensation. But, they seem to miss the “and so on” portion. If I am correctly reading into what the CBA implies with “and so on”, this is what they are implying:

“Clubs owing four (4) draft selections in the same round must have them available in the next five (5) drafts.”

In that case, the Sharks would be unable to offer Marner an offer sheet that requires 4 first round picks of compensation, since they do not have first round picks available in the next five drafts.

I would love if a CBA expert could explain this, though.