Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

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Seanaconda

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It was updated at the moment that the Karlsson trade happened because the Sharks were guaranteed to lose their 2020 1st round pick once the trade happened. That is reflected in the compensation for every other offer sheet including a 1st round pick, where the Sharks are not eligible

The error that I am almost 100% CapFriendly is making is that they are mis-reading a crucial portion of the CBA.

“Clubs owing three (3) draft selections in the same round must have them available in the next four (4) drafts, and so on.

Clearly, they understood the compensation for clubs owing 3 draft selections in the same round, ans that is why they say the Sharks cannot make an offer sheet that requires 3 first round picks as compensation. But, they seem to miss the “and so on” portion. If I am correctly reading into what the CBA implies with “and so on”, this is what they are implying:

“Clubs owing four (4) draft selections in the same round must have them available in the next five (5) drafts.”

In that case, the Sharks would be unable to offer Marner an offer sheet that requires 4 first round picks of compensation, since they do not have first round picks available in the next five drafts.

I would love if a CBA expert could explain this, though.
No if they didn't make the playoffs this year they would have lost their 2019 first not the 2020.

But yes you would need your own pick in 2020 ,21 ,22, 23 to offer sheet him to the four firsts
 

Seanaconda

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They were going to lose both picks either way. The 2020 pick was just going to Buffalo and not Ottawa if they missed the playoffs.
Then I think it's just cap friendly messing up . Maybe due to all the conditions of not knowing for sure where to put it they just left it in the sharks spot till it was decided ?
 

Ziggdiezan

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Ovies has to be higher , idk how cap friendly calculates it but he signed at the same time off his elc for 9.5 per year vs Crosby at 8.7
Ya that is blizzare and after I look at it is a pretty bad mistake on capfriendly behalf, or a weird choice of calculation.

They calculate the cap hit % at the moment the contract was signed so Crosby and Ovie both had contracts that kicked in for the 2008-2009 season. However Crosby signed his contract before the season started on July 2007 while Ovie signed his halfway through the season on January 2008. That is why Crosby appears to have a higher cap hit % vs Ovie (17.3% vs 16.83%) as they must have used the previous years cap for Crosby and the current years cap for Ovie.

Looking into it there was a 6.8 million dollar increase for the 2008/09 season to bring it to 57.6 million ceiling. That is a massive cap increase in one year and explains why Crosby had a higher cap hit % due to using the previous years cap.
 

BB88

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The playoffs proved why Matthews will be the highest paid leaf, he was the best player in the series.

Marner will end up around ~10

It was the other way around last year so....., and just hit 94 points.
 

JoeThorntonsRooster

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Then I think it's just cap friendly messing up . Maybe due to all the conditions of not knowing for sure where to put it they just left it in the sharks spot till it was decided ?

It has nothing to do with the 2020 pick. CapFriendly knows the Sharks don’t have that pick.

1-FFE35-BD-F14-A-4-C49-A356-14-BDE5-A1449-E.png


That’s why it says the Sharks aren’t eligible to make an offer sheet that would require a 1st round pick as compensation.
 

JoeThorntonsRooster

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If you use CapFriendly’s armchair GM, pick the Sharks, and try to sign a player to an offer sheet, it says that the compensation is not met for the offer sheet that would require 4 first round picks.

DBBF14-DE-12-A7-4536-B293-6-BA3-AD614-C80.png


They are making a mistake where they say that the compensation can be met for the Sharks for an offer sheet at that figure. It can’t.
 

supsens

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Only the leafs could get so lucky with picks/players, gather a great young core, and **** it up this badly.

I'm still laughing that they gave Marleau a 3 year, 35+ contract knowing it'd overlap with Matthews/Marner's RFA years.

Because for the first time in 25 years they were going to build by drafting players and he was going to be the old guide that showed the kids how to be pro’s, then the new GM decided he was going to sign the highest paid UFA in history and killed that
 

Seanaconda

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It has nothing to do with the 2020 pick. CapFriendly knows the Sharks don’t have that pick.

1-FFE35-BD-F14-A-4-C49-A356-14-BDE5-A1449-E.png


That’s why it says the Sharks aren’t eligible to make an offer sheet that would require a 1st round pick as compensation.
Hmm maybe they can use the year after

"The draft picks must available in the nearest entry draft, unless the compensation requires two or more draft picks in the same round: an extra year can be used to for compensation for these picks (if two 1st round picks are required, the club must have two 1st round picks available in the next three drafts"

So maybe they can actually use their 24 first instead of their 20. Never heard of that rule but it seems like a thing so my apologies
 

JoeThorntonsRooster

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Hmm maybe they can use the year after

"The draft picks must available in the nearest entry draft, unless the compensation requires two or more draft picks in the same round: an extra year can be used to for compensation for these picks (if two 1st round picks are required, the club must have two 1st round picks available in the next three drafts"

So maybe they can actually use their 24 first instead of their 20. Never heard of that rule but it seems like a thing so my apologies

I haven’t heard of the rule either. Where are you seeing that quote?

And why doesn’t it apply if they want to sign an offer sheet that requires 3 first round picks as compensation? And why do they say in their armchair GM tool that the Sharks do not meet the compensation for an offer sheet at that price?
 

Seanaconda

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I haven’t heard of the rule either. Where are you seeing that quote?

And why doesn’t it apply if they want to sign an offer sheet that requires 3 first round picks as compensation? And why do they say in their armchair GM tool that the Sharks do not meet the compensation for an offer sheet at that price?
It's on the faq above the compensation board you listed.

The sharks lacking their third round pick makes them ineligible for the other ones because the slide only works for multiple picks in the same round.

So the 2firsts would have a slide but the one second and one third pick you need wouldn't
 

JoeThorntonsRooster

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It's on the faq above the compensation board you listed.

The sharks lacking their third round pick makes them ineligible for the other ones because the slide only works for multiple picks in the same round.

So the 2firsts would have a slide but the one second and one third pick you need wouldn't

There you go. And now that I look at the offer sheet compensation in the CBA, it all makes sense.

However, CapFriendly is still missing a pick. That is the Sharks 1st round pick in the 2021 draft. That pick becomes Ottawa’s if Erik Karlsson re-signs and the Sharks make the Stanley Cup Finals.
 

Seanaconda

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There you go. And now that I look at the offer sheet compensation in the CBA, it all makes sense.

However, CapFriendly is still missing a pick. That is the Sharks 1st round pick in the 2021 draft. That pick becomes Ottawa’s if Erik Karlsson re-signs and the Sharks make the Stanley Cup Finals.
That one actually hasn't been decided yet tho right
 

Nizdizzle

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I imagine this has been shared since, but for those who haven't seen it, I think its relevant enough to the discussion to be in this thread. Bob McKenzie's take on whether agents see Dubas as an easy target after this season:

 

AK1121

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To NYR - Marner & Zaitsev
To TOR - Strome, Andersson, DeAngelo & 2nd overall

Flip Strome for mid pick and call it a day
 

TT1

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That's a pretty easy argument for Maner's agent to win. When did Kane sign his contract? Done.

If they're ready to pay him 10.5M at the very least then you should expect him to get up to 11.5M. Insane money.
 

Seanaconda

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To NYR - Marner & Zaitsev
To TOR - Strome, Andersson, DeAngelo & 2nd overall

Flip Strome for mid pick and call it a day
Rangers say no. They may as well just offer sheet him and keep kakko their cap space and depth
 

SeaOfBlue

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Matthews got 14.02% of an 83 mill cap. He probably wanted 16% on an 8 year deal (aka 13.25 mill). Why people think Dubas got bent over on that is beyond me... Really, considering he got half the PP time as most of his comparables and is not really putting up much less in terms of production (especially goal production) and was receiving less ice time and support than many of his comparables, that may even end up being a steal.

Dubas probably wants to give Marner the Kane RFA contract. He was 11.09% of the cap back then, which would be about 9.2 mill on a 5 year deal now. Marner was 93 on London, so perhaps Dubas gives him 9.3 mill x 5 years, which is 11.20% of the cap. That eclispes the ceiling out of wingers who are on 5 year deals. If he wanted the 8 years, then he probably gets 2% more, which puts him just under 11 mill. I think that is also fair, considering he is an elite winger. Maybe Dubas is saying he wants to cap it off at Kane's 10.5*8 rather than just under 11*8, but we are talking about like a <500k difference. They'll probably work that out at a number both sides would like on an 8 year deal. I think that's the type of stuff you are seeing the Leafs and Marner working out right now.

The rest of it just seems like wishful thinking from other fan bases who sadistically want to see the Leafs get screwed, probably like they thought with the Matthews and Nylander contracts... Marner does not have any leverage to get Matthews' contract, just like every other elite winger before him did not lay claim to that kind of money. Marner is elite, but he's not generational. He's not better than McDavid, which is essentially what Marner would be claiming with that kind of demand, and I do not think other teams would even offersheet him at that amount. Otherwise all of those other RFA's (Rantanen, Point and Aho) are not going for less than 11 mill on a 5 year contract themselves. There is a good chance Rantanen and Aho are going to want more money than Marner, so what are they going to make? 12 mill on a 5 year deal? More than Matthews? That's pretty much where things would be heading.

I personally don't think Marner wants to go the offersheet route anymore than the Leafs do. For one, if a team does not want to match his ridiculous demands, then that takes away any leverage he had over the Leafs (by threatening to go to the offersheet route)... And then if he does get what he wants, he's going to have to be willing to accept it and risk the Leafs not matching it? Is getting paid maybe 5 mill more on the life of his contract worth more to him than what the Leafs would give him (a lot of which could not be replicated by any other team in the NHL)? The offersheet threat only works if you are willing to follow through on it, and if you think the Leafs are suckers enough to fall for it. Sorry, I don't think Dubas is that much of a sucker.
 

Cotton

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I imagine this has been shared since, but for those who haven't seen it, I think its relevant enough to the discussion to be in this thread. Bob McKenzie's take on whether agents see Dubas as an easy target after this season:



It's basically Bob just calling everyone who whines about Nylander being overpaid a dope, lol.
 
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Menzinger

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Obviously this all relies on whether Marner would sign an offer sheet from another club, but I don't understand why so many folks think the bolded above will scare teams off, especially if we're talking about perennial contenders whose 1st round picks are usually in the 20+ range every year.

What are the odds that any of those picks in the 20+ range ever approach Marner's ability? The Pens, for example, have drafted the following with picks in the 20+ range over the last little while -- Olli Maatta, Joe Morrow, Beau Bennett, Simon Despres, Kasperi Kapanen. I'd hazard a guess they'd trade any number of those 4 for Marner if they had the chance.

It will be pretty hard to name a single trade in the last 10 years where a team gace up the equivalent of 4 1st going he other direction. That's a massive amount ofnvalu, especially in the ew era where young players/prospects hold more value than ever.

Then you have the reality that there is way to guarantee those picks are in the 20s. Anything can happen and teams can have awful seasons at random.

The Marner offersheet is a complete paper tiger. Nothing Its fodder for hot take journalism and message board discussions, not real life.
 
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BB88

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The biggest/main thing for Dubas needs to be that this contracts runs after Tavares deal is over.
 

SeaOfBlue

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That's a pretty easy argument for Maner's agent to win. When did Kane sign his contract? Done.

If they're ready to pay him 10.5M at the very least then you should expect him to get up to 11.5M. Insane money.

That argument only works based on cap percentage though doesn't it? It seems this has more to do with cap hit than cap percentage.

I also think if they view Kane's contract as the ceiling, they are probably not starting that high. They are probably starting with Kucherov or Stone as the article suggested.
 

JoeThorntonsRooster

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The Marner offersheet is a complete paper tiger. Nothing Its fodder for hot take journalism and message board discussions, not real life.

If this were true, Dubas wouldn’t have called it imperative that Marner gets signed before July 1st. There is a reason that he specifically mentioned that date.
 
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