Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[Nostradumbass]

Like when all Leaf fans said Matthews would take a discount because he wanted to be there lol

He did take a discount. He took 5 instead of 8.

 

[Cotton]

Move onto what? I doubt anyone is going to send back a 22 year old star player.

Move on from Marner obviously. I made no mention of a return.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

He did take a discount. He took 5 instead of 8.

Yeah, that was some discount. Took him right to UFA status in 5 years where he can get another crazy contract. His Agent should get a nice bonus on that negotiation.

 

[4thline]

Honest question to many Leaf fans... What yearly number would you be comfortable with?

10.xx (match second tier OS) x 5
+200k per x 6
+200k per x 7
+200k per x 8

The 6th year is valuable with the Tavares term, but the increased comp should knock teams out on the 6th year (increase comp isn't worth one extra year). unless some team is willing to go the 4 1st route the Leafs should have enough leverage and incentive to scale up relatively slowly

 

[Nostradumbass]

Yeah, that was some discount. Took him right to UFA status in 5 years where he can get another crazy contract. His Agent should get a nice bonus on that negotiation.

That was the joke...

 

[CB Joe]

This is real life: things only work like this on hypothetical message board.

No GM is going to give Marner an offersheet unless they're willing to actually risk losing the 4 1st round picks. The player in turn would only risk signing an offersheet unless he was actually willing to leave his team.

The number of teams that have the cap space (11ish miion), are wing to lose 4 1sts and that Marner would actually accept are essentially zero

Teams would make room for Marner. I suspect there would be at least half a dozen teams that would seriously consider offersheeting Marner.

 

[Ciccio1980]

Would you trade marner kadri Marleau and kappanen to la for doughty and kopitar

 

[93gilmour93]

These high salary contracts are going to be the way of the future. With the rising cap every year in about 3 years we will see multiple teams with multiple 10+ million players on those teams. It started with McDavid and that contract has changed the salary structure for top players going forward. The thing with these big money deals in Toronto is that teams that can't afford to do these kinds of deals will be hurt by this when they have a couple huge contracts to work out with their stars especially teams on an internal budget. Like it or not Dubas is changing the landscape of big deals in the league and it will be interesting to see how the other small market teams deal with it

 

[4thline]

These high salary contracts are going to be the way of the future. With the rising cap every year in about 3 years we will see multiple teams with multiple 10+ million players on those teams. It started with McDavid and that contract has changed the salary structure for top players going forward.

The return to a pre-back diving deal landscape actually started with Toews and Kane, the whereas the McDavid deal slowed the transition down.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

10.xx (match second tier OS) x 5
+200k per x 6
+200k per x 7
+200k per x 8

The 6th year is valuable with the Tavares term, but the increased comp should knock teams out on the 6th year (increase comp isn't worth one extra year. unless some team is willing to go the 4 1st route the Leafs should have enough leverage and incentive to scale up relatively slowly

Thanks.. As i said, im always curious what many Leaf posters would be OK with. I dont see many examples like this from fans!

 

[93gilmour93]

The return to a pre-back diving deal landscape actually started with Toews and Kane, the whereas the McDavid deal slowed the transition down.

Kane and Toews signed those deals in a different time. The McDavid deal changed things and dubas is continuing that change league wide. The money is rising for stars as the cap rises

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Just curious how many "perennial " contenders have the cap space to make a move like this?

SJ sharks have a projected 20+M in cap space and the picks to do it if they do not sign EK. They are a team that historically picks low in the draft.

 

[4thline]

Thanks.. As i said, im always curious what many Leaf posters would be OK with. I dont see many examples like this from fans!

It's very possible that external leverage is a factor in these negotiations, especially with the 2nd comp tier. That being said they may play a role with out maxing out. If the most someone else is willing to pay is a cap adjusted Kane 9.5x5 the above model should be adjusted accordingly. A team willing to play in that 9-10 range but for 4 complicates things

I strongly believe that Dubas (justifiably) heard OS footsteps with matthews and was worried about a team being willing to treat him like a "super rental". As a UFA rental he'd bring back close to 1st+1st+2nd+3rd, it's not outlandish that a team would go 2-3-4 years at that price. I don't know if Marner commands that same intrigue though, allowing Dubas to play a bit of chicken

 

[gianni]

Patrick Kane signed his current contract in 2014; somewhat wishful thinking to believe that Mitch Marner signs for 2014 prices, but who knows

 

[4thline]

Kane and Toews signed those deals in a different time. The McDavid deal changed things and dubas is continuing that change league wide. The money is rising for stars as the cap rises

Kane and Toews were the 1st big contracts signed coming out of the 2013 CBA that really reflected the impact of the 8 year term cap and restrictions on backdiving.

McDavid's deal was a step backward. It didn't change anything, it just highlighted the lack of awareness about inflation and how backdiving deals had been compressing cap hits.

In 2008 Crosby signed his 2nd contract, a 5 year deal paying him 17.3% of the cap
McDavid's deal paid him 16.7% but over 8 years.

Based on his single viable comparable McDavid should have been around 13x5. T

 

[Xanner]

Really depends how many 11+ Million dollar players one can have on a roster at fwd. None of the remaining 8 teams playing has one in their line ups. Teams that have iced a strong bottom 6 support group are winning. Is it possihle that being too top heavy salary wise weakens a team? It's a model that may not be the best.

I think players making 10+ mill is about to be the norm around the league, especially with the cap closing in on 100 mill. Its a model that teams around the league with superstar players are going to have accept, whether those players have won a cup or not.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I mean that seems like a reasonable stance to take.

Yeah, until you realize Kane was signed five years ago under a lower cap, and they already gave Matthews more than Kane under a 5 year term.

 

[ChaosAgent]

"hello, inflation calling."

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

Leafs do not see MM making 10.6 million or more?

Then leafs will be sorely disappointed.

I'm Mitch Marner and I see myself outplaying and outproducing both JT and Mathews and I should settle for 10 mill and maybe less?

Hell no. Those 2 sure as hell didn't take a hometown discount, so why should Marner?

I ask for 12 mill and settle for 11.

Position be damned. Look at McJesus in Edm... still looking for a winger to play with.

Bet he would LOVE a Mitch Marner on his wing.

Prime position or not, you pay Elite players, elite money.

 

[TehDoak]

Only the leafs could get so lucky with picks/players, gather a great young core, and f*** it up this badly.

I'm still laughing that they gave Marleau a 3 year, 35+ contract knowing it'd overlap with Matthews/Marner's RFA years.

 

[Cotton]

The fantasy is Leaf fans believing he would accept 10.5 for 8 years. I don't disagree with the point made earlier about wingers v centers. However if it is to be 8 years it will be right at Matthews dollars. ... AND if as more than one of you have indicated they should offer closer to 10m (or less IN THIS THREAD) he would/could dictate his salary for the next 5 years by signing the offer sheet and putting the ball in the leafs court.

In which case they match the 5 years at 10.5M, aslong as the number is under 11 the Leafs can afford it. What is difficult to understand about this?

 

[Cotton]

Montreal is the team with the biggest fan base around the world.... but okay Toronto fans, you do you.

Montreal is the team with the biggest fan base around the world comprised of insecure individuals with Toronto centric doomsday fantasies. But not more fans, no.

 

[Ciccio1980]

Only the leafs could get so lucky with picks/players, gather a great young core, and **** it up this badly.

I'm still laughing that they gave Marleau a 3 year, 35+ contract knowing it'd overlap with Matthews/Marner's RFA years.

Maybe at the time they thought they could sign all 3 for around 22m

 

[TBF1972]

Nylander made it all the way to Dec 1st without receiving an offersheet. Other top end young players will be available as RFA's. I do not fear the offersheet.

You know that. He didn't sign an offer sheet. But he may have been offered.

If you are right, that no team offered him anything and still Dubas wasn't able to negotiate a better (from TML perspective) contract, would not bode well for Dubas and his negotiations.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Montreal is the team with the biggest fan base around the world comprised of insecure individuals with Toronto centric doomsday fantasies. But not more fans, no.

takes you 2 minutes on google to find that answer.

Spoiler alert: Toronto is not even close to MTL for the number of fans.