Value of: Lafreniere Offer Sheet (1 year at $6.4M)

[Voight]

Looks like this thread has turned into... Habs will suck replies.

Lack of focus on Lafreniere and what kind of player he can or won't be at age 22+. I guess most fans think he will not turn into a good top 6F.

He hasn't shown any indication that he will.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He hasn't shown any indication that he will.

He put up 15-18 goals and 35-40 pts playing 14 min a game from age 18-21. With little PP time. I have no idea where he tops out at but I think fans are guilty of being overly low on him. He's not getting the same usage as others get on rebuilding teams. I know the Rangers did give him some usage but I don't think his true potential is dead just yet.

 

[hawksrule]

Not at all clear that 6-12 next year won't outproduce Lafreniere. Some may, some won't. But, it's also whether or not they can deliver similar / better performance cheaper.

In a hard cap world, there's a constant need to optimize performance per dollar spent. Your offer sheet approach doesn't do that.

The major (repeatable) sources of outpeformance seem to be: ELCs; betting early on rising stars (Hughes, Robertson, etc.); and top stars taking less and overachieving (MacKinnon for years, Marchand, etc.).

With Lafreniere, you're talking about scenario 2 (betting early on a rising star), but - if bet correctly - you're setting it up so that Laf can renegotiate in a year to get more money.

If you're going to make the bet, you need to do so in a way that the upside is worth the risk.

Point is that he’s done nothing other than be drafted 1oa to warrant betting on him as a rising star.

 

[TGWL]

Lol this would be hilarious, he's worth ~$1.75 max.

What he's worth in real $ vs what he's worth to acquire to your team going forward are 2 different things.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

Dunno man, its .depend of our G and we still have a lot of young player on D

And the teams ahead of us got better, Detroit, Ottawa, buffalo as did Columbus.

 

[HabsAddict]

The usual problem is the French name. If his name was Lafishenko, the interest from Habsland would be close nil.

After Dubois multi year drama, there shouldn't be an ounce of interest because of his name.

My interest is if he's another Dach...or a dead duck. I'm not willing to part with what the Rangers probably want in order to find out. Neither is any teams willing to OS him at 4.3 to find out, which is interesting. The logic behind that is every team has their own prospects and underachievers that they hope will rise into middle to top 6.

Certainly the Habs have an army of prospects and projects that we have high hopes for. Not worth spending serious assets to add another one.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

The usual problem is the French name. If his name was Lafishenko, the interest from Habsland would be close nil.

After Dubois multi year drama, there shouldn't be an ounce of interest because of his name.

My interest is if he's another Dach...or a dead duck. I'm not willing to part with what the Rangers probably want in order to find out. Neither is any teams willing to OS him at 4.3 to find out, which is interesting. The logic behind that is every team has their own prospects and underachievers that they hope will rise into middle to top 6.

Certainly the Habs have an army of prospects and projects that we have high hopes for. Not worth spending serious assets to add another one.

I'd actually be a lot more interested if he wasn't from here lol.

Takes some big stones to play here as a hometown kid and be a star, I don't think he's that guy personally , not many guys coming out of the Q are these days

 

[HabsAddict]

I'd actually be a lot more interested if he wasn't from here lol.

Takes some big stones to play here as a hometown kid and be a star, I don't think he's that guy personally , not many guys coming out of the Q are these days

We're not in the Maurice Richard world I grew up in.

Dubois should seal the "home town" coffin of Quebecers who want to play for home town pride and honour. Now, in ALL cases it's me-moi first and any pride is a secondary afterthought that is spouted in press conferences. The next player that spouts "I want to play for the Habs" is going to force me to buy a dozen eggs, let them rot, then throw it at their house.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

We're not in the Maurice Richard world I grew up in.

Dubois should seal the "home town" coffin of Quebecers who want to play for home town pride and honour. Now, in ALL cases it's me-moi first and any pride is a secondary afterthought that is spouted in press conferences. The next player that spouts "I want to play for the Habs" is going to force me to buy a dozen eggs, let them rot, then throw it at their house.

Yeah its not a big deal though , the Q is the weakest its ever been we aren't missing out on much. We need to focus on getting any sort of talent on the roster before worrying about where they come from lol

 

[DearDiary]

No, not even close. Like absurdly not even close.

He is a 21 year old middle six player today. With first line upside. His worth is a hell of a lot more than a trade deadline rental bottom six player.

The overrating of picks is absurd.

Put it this way. If Laf was on your team, what do u think his value would be. I am sure as shit you wouldn't settle for a high second. And u know why? Because you know he is worth more than that.

The fact that there are so many threads made about acquiring him shows he has value. And everybody w him for a steal. You know why? Bc people know the Rangers mismanaged the hell put of him and he will be a top line player if given a proper chance and role.

Why does Laf have 1st line upside? Where is this potential coming from? He's a player that developed physically faster than his peers, but has no outstanding attributes that can push him into a top line player. He can't create space to shoot, passes into skates and is not a fast skater. Compare that to J.Hughes who was struggling, but still showed off talent with his skating and shooting. Where you knew if he could figure out how to get that 1 stride on a defender, he could get his shot off.

The many threads about acquiring him are solely based off his draft pick status. It happens with every player from Drouin to R.Murray.

 

[HabsAddict]

Yeah its not a big deal though , the Q is the weakest its ever been we aren't missing out on much. We need to focus on getting any sort of talent on the roster before worrying about where they come from lol

You'd be surprised how many Quebecois band wagon fans put an emphasis on home town guys. Including some from the press and of course, some politicians.

After the Dubois BS drama, you'd think they shut up and realize that Quebec born players really don't care about playing in Quebec, yet the drama never seems to go away.

I don't care. It's been 30 years since the last cup and I couldn't care less if his name was Michkov, as long as we win.

 

[Strangle]

I think offer sheets should be used more but why is it always fans of bottom dwellers that want to make them? Your first rounders are worth 10x more? Why don't we hear offer sheet proposals from Avs and Leafs fans?

Bottom dwellers usually have the cap space for the fans to fantasize about offer sheeting good young players.

Good teams need to move players off their rosters to fit those kinds of cap hits under the cap

 

[HabsAddict]

Why does Laf have 1st line upside? Where is this potential coming from? He's a player that developed physically faster than his peers, but has no outstanding attributes that can push him into a top line player. He can't create space to shoot, passes into skates and is not a fast skater. Compare that to J.Hughes who was struggling, but still showed off talent with his skating and shooting. Where you knew if he could figure out how to get that 1 stride on a defender, he could get his shot off.

The many threads about acquiring him are solely based off his draft pick status. It happens with every player from Drouin to R.Murray.

The fact that he hasn't signed yet likely means the Rangers are offering him 2.5 million neighborhood AND the fact that no one OS him at 4.2 million should be a warning sign that GM's do not considered him as "untapped star potential".

For me, it's a worthwhile gamble at a certain price. I see his best upside being a possible 50-60 point second line player. Or NOT. That is why I peg his value at the very best to be 15OA or less equivalent trade.

 

[gritdash60]

"If this is truly win at all cost, then trade them already. If the goal is to give these young players every opportunity to reach their potential ceiling, then you need to actually give them the opportunity for that, even if that means taking a step back and moving on from some vets. It's a tough choice"

This is exactly what i was trying to say but english isn't my first language so i couldn't put in in words like you.

I assume you still could get a haul for Lafreniere if you traded him. Ofcourse i also understand the way of thinking where they pay their top players a lot, and have the kids on cheap contracts, but the reality is that the kids on cheap contracts cannot suddenly become the dudes who win you games in playoffs if they play 10minutes a game and see 13seconds of powerplay.

The recipe for success in playoffs will always be that the team has to have some either ELC or other big value contracts, but you also need to play them. (Vegas probably doesn't count since they cheated their way to the cup).

Somehow i cant get the quoting working, maybe im just stupid.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

The usual problem is the French name. If his name was Lafishenko, the interest from Habsland would be close nil.

After Dubois multi year drama, there shouldn't be an ounce of interest because of his name.

My interest is if he's another Dach...or a dead duck. I'm not willing to part with what the Rangers probably want in order to find out. Neither is any teams willing to OS him at 4.3 to find out, which is interesting. The logic behind that is every team has their own prospects and underachievers that they hope will rise into middle to top 6.

Certainly the Habs have an army of prospects and projects that we have high hopes for. Not worth spending serious assets to add another one.

I think any team would be interested in a very recent #1 overall, not matter what his name. and he’s not a Yakupov who can’t even play in the league.

 

[gritdash60]

I think any team would be interested in a very recent #1 overall, not matter what his name. and he’s not a Yakupov who can’t even play in the league.

When was the last time a team traded for #1 overall who actually has performed like his draft pedigree says?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

When was the last time a team traded for #1 overall who actually has performed like his draft pedigree says?

Joe Thornton I guess? What does that have to do with what I said?

 

[gritdash60]

Joe Thornton I guess? What does that have to do with what I said?

Nothing, i was just curious

 

[Price is Wright]

Rangers only have like $2.2M in cap space. I can't think of who they could buy out to make room. You might not even have to go as high as $6.4M. You could probably cut that to $4M and still make it unmatchable.

 

[HabsAddict]

I think any team would be interested in a very recent #1 overall, not matter what his name. and he’s not a Yakupov who can’t even play in the league.

Yet no one is OS even a 4.2 million contract.

Rangers only have like $2.2M in cap space. I can't think of who they could buy out to make room. You might not even have to go as high as $6.4M. You could probably cut that to $4M and still make it unmatchable.

Rangers will be forced to match that and they wont like it.

That's where some smart GM will give the Rangers an ultimatum of taking a 2nd and some add on instead of matching the 4.2 million. Problem with that is it's an "old boys network" where they really don't step in each others soup bowl.

 

[pth2]

I just don't see an OS making sense. It means an unprotected first from a team that's just had two top-5 picks in a row...

But a trade set up to be similar to the Dach one might make sense for Montreal - say a top-5 protected 1st rounder for Lafrenière signed on a reasonable bridge deal - would be worth exploring. That being said, I'm still not sure I'd go for it, the risk doesn't seem to be worth the reward (keeping in mind if the pick is top-5, it becomes unprotected in 2026)

A trade built around the lesser of Montreal's pick and what Montreal gets from Calgary in 2025 would be a possibility, though all this assumes NYR are open to moving him for futures.... though those futures would be mighty attractive come deadline time, so for a win-now team it could make sense.

 

[Fatass]

Do the Rangers match? 1st and 3rd is the compensation.

What pick do we think the Habs will have for the 2024 draft? 5-16 range? Seems like a similar cost to what we paid to acquire Dach to me. Basically a KK type offer sheet and a handshake deal on what the extension. I find that part tricky because if he breaks out, he won't take $4.82M for 8 years.

Risk/Rewards are tricky on this one.

Also, would other fans consider this move?

Why not get Lafreniere to sign at 4.2 so it’s only a second rounder in compensation? Trade to get back that second first, of course, and then make the offer sheet happen. Lafreniere isn’t worth a potential top 15 pick or higher. Especially since the Habs need high first to build some elite skill into their club.

 

[nhlfan9191]

I just don't see an OS making sense. It means an unprotected first from a team that's just had two top-5 picks in a row...

But a trade set up to be similar to the Dach one might make sense for Montreal - say a top-5 protected 1st rounder for Lafrenière signed on a reasonable bridge deal - would be worth exploring. That being said, I'm still not sure I'd go for it, the risk doesn't seem to be worth the reward (keeping in mind if the pick is top-5, it becomes unprotected in 2026)

A trade built around the lesser of Montreal's pick and what Montreal gets from Calgary in 2025 would be a possibility, though all this assumes NYR are open to moving him for futures.... though those futures would be mighty attractive come deadline time, so for a win-now team it could make sense.

If we wanted Lafrenierre, they could’ve dangled picks similar to ones given up for Newhook. Definitely not a 2024 1st round pick that’s only top 5 protected. He doesn’t fit in Montreal unless you’re solely basing his value on his heritage. And Hughes has already shown he’s not overpaying for that by not getting into a bidding war over Dubois.

 

[Satanphonehome]

It’s kinda weird that Lukas Raymond is a star in waiting with Detroit and Lafreniere is never going to be a top 6 player.

They came out of the same draft and Raymond got top 6 opportunities all year long that Lafreniere never did, and got just 6 more points.

Buffalo fans say Jack Quinn is going to be a stud, same with the Jets and Cole Perfetti. How about Lukas Reichel and the Hawks? Each came from the same draft and have done less than Lafreniere has.

Stutzle is a stud. The rest of that draft, we haven’t got f***ing clue and don’t pretend you do.

 

[tailfins]

Most in the 6-12 range take as much time as Lafreniere (ELC) today. Most in the 6-12 range don't even start in the NHL until age 20+.

Listing past hits does not quantify anything.

Sure, but the players who have a similar development curve to Laf don't get $6 million second contracts.