Value of: Lafreniere Offer Sheet (1 year at $6.4M)

[Fatass]

If you have faith in Lafreniere from age 22+ and you have the cap structure, you take the risk/rewards. If you don't have faith he can be a very good top 6F, and you don't have the cap structure, you don't do it.

Also, It's a KK type offersheet with a handshake deal on what his next contract would be after that year. We will see where Kotkaniemi tops out at during that 8 year extension. Canes did calculate the risk/rewards on KK. Might work, might not. I felt he improved last year but we are talking modest gains season/season.

For the draft pick, you know less information today. That player could be better than Lafreniere, the same, or much worse. Top 10 or 6-12 range picks have lots of value... if you hit.

Bookmark it. I am curious myself to see how this idea today ages over time.



I would try that myself but Habs don't have our 2nd rounder. Not possible with us but it is with other teams.

Habs could trade to get their own second back, couldn’t they?

 

[TGWL]

Habs could trade to get their own second back, couldn’t they?

They could. I mean the league isn't dumb and there's no guarentee that getting the 2nd back means Laf is signing the OS. They can spend the assets to get the pick back. I'm sure Winnipeg will ask for a little extra knowing what it's for and wanting future assets themselves

 

[Habs Halifax]

Habs could trade to get their own second back, couldn’t they?

Possible yes. Jets have it I believe. Not sure Gorton/Hughes will try. I'd love to add Lafreniere at $4.29M for a 2nd rounder but we do have a clutter in our forward group with several young players close to NHL ready behind them. Adding Lafreniere clutters it more.

If Lafreniere is who he is today and does not improve from age 22+, we might already have a type like him with guys like Ylonen, Farrell, Heineman. However, I do think Lafreniere's potential is not dead yet. Time is running out but there is still a fair amount of growth there.

Would the Jets take Ylonen for our 2nd rounder back? Not sure. He was a early 2nd rounder and he is NHL ready with good development. Not as many NHL games played as Lafreniere but his point totals are similar. So would a Ylonen for Lafreniere trade work directly? Probably not, Rangers would probably want more. Then would the Jets like adding a young NHL ready forward for that 2nd rounder? Not sure. If I posted this as a thread, I think it gets belittled by the nit pick gang looking to laugh and attack things.

 

[ProjectPanthers]

Yet another? They've had a total of 3 top 5 picks in the last half century. Are all your posts this clueless?

It's a joke bud, gonna be a long off-season if you're this sensitive.

Also who cares about 50 years ago, KK and Laf look underwhelming at best through their first few years considering where they were selected. That's a pretty special combination of missteps on the organization's part, both are well north of 200 games and haven't even cracked 100 points in their career.

At least Kakko's a solid defensive player and Laf can hit, they should be decent 2nd liners on other teams for years to come.

 

[hawksrule]

These are facts because you say they are. I can’t think of a better way to prove my point.

You say I haven’t watched both players. I have.

You say my opinion was uninformed. You don’t know my opinion on either player, because I haven’t really shared it.

You misread my first post as saying Lafreniere was better than Reichel and you’ve continued to double down on that even after I told you that’s not what I am talking about at all.

And somehow you’ve come to the mistaken conclusion that I’m a fan of either Lafreniere or his team?

If you watch hockey as well as you read, good luck being right on either player.

You admitted to having “barely” watched Reichel.

Prior to that you nonsensically mocked fans of other teams who prefer their own prospects who have outperformed since being drafted to Lafreniere, who has underperformed.

You then deflected into “you obviously haven’t watched hockey for long”, essentially challenging the bonafides of a poster of a last place team who is commenting during the summer on a sub forum of an obscure message board.

If you have anything to share that isn’t incoherent nonsense, feel free at any point…

 

[TGWL]

Take your shots towards each other else where.

 

[Tawnos]

I think the Rangers match this pretty easily and figure out the cap situation from there.

Lafrenière had 35 ES points in 81 games last year. And that includes his previous shooting percentage dropping by 8 points.

Anders Lee: 36 in 82 - $7m
Alex Debrincat: 36 in 82 - $7.875m
Blake Coleman: 36 in 82 - $4.9m
Andrew Copp: 36 in 82 - $5.625m
Anthony Beuavillier: 36 in 82 - $4.15m
Oliver Bjorkstrand: 35 in 81 - $5.125m
Joel Eriksson Ek: 35 in 78 - $5.25m
David Perron: 34 in 82 - $4.75m
Nino Neiderreiter: 34 in 78 - $4m
Bryan Rust: 34 in 81 - $5.125m
Conor Garland: 34 in 81 - $4.95m
Brandon Tanev: 34 in 82 - $3.5m

Average: $5.18m

$6.4m is UFA pay and an overpay even then, but not by so much that you let him go. Considering Lafrenière is will just be 22 in October and the team could expand his role... matching is a no-brainer.

 

[bleeding blue]

It's a joke bud, gonna be a long off-season if you're this sensitive.

Also who cares about 50 years ago, KK and Laf look underwhelming at best through their first few years considering where they were selected. That's a pretty special combination of missteps on the organization's part, both are well north of 200 games and haven't even cracked 100 points in their career.

At least Kakko's a solid defensive player and Laf can hit, they should be decent 2nd liners on other teams for years to come.

missteps is a little strong, they were consensus picks at their position

 

[I Hate Philadelphia]

An absolute bargain at $6.4mil/yr

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

missteps is a little strong, they were consensus picks at their position

And unlucky enough to be drafted by a team that has no room for them and gave them very little playing time with good players.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I know. That’s how fan’s minds work with shiny new toys.

Wait another 5 or 6 years. And you’re talking about him like he’s Dominik Kubalik.

Oh, I know. This one is different.

Reiichel is far better than Kubalik. He and Lafreniere should both be solid scoring line forwards. Reichel is playing for a real coach and a team with few forwards and will get lots of ice time. And ice time with the top players Hawks have. Lafreniere will likely need to be moved to progress.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yawn. Offer-sheets don't happen.

Yes, I know it happened once recently, and you see what happened there.

Can @ me if it does.

 

[ProjectPanthers]

missteps is a little strong, they were consensus picks at their position

The picks aren't the misstep, the handling of them is

 

[lucaseider]

Already answered that question. We finished 5th last but with a lot of injuries. Our guys on D were mostly rookies. If not for the injuries, I think we finish in the bottom 8-12 range. That's not a reach. That's 6-10 wins in the difference over 7 months. It's closer than you realize. 1 win / month ish.

I'm not expecting playoffs but I do expect a pick in the 8-16 range. I don't agree with you that we stay in the bottom 5 that long. I also don't think you understand what happened to us last year.



I don't play that game. I used too though. There are a lot of variables to this and it's unpredictable to list teams in order like that. All I will say is we finished 5th last with a lot of injuries to key assets. If the injures happen again, it might be a bottom 5 finish again yes but expecting that amount of injuries again is not probable.

Bookmark it. Habs pick will be from 8-16 range.

I mean other teams had injuries too, big ones. The sens didn't have their second line center and the Wings were missing 2/3 of their top wingers. You don't think those teams gain points too? Those are just off the top of my head, both had various other injuries too, you can't play if the Habs were healthy and not the other teams.

 

[JetsFan815]

Have the Habs learnt nothing from the Carolina experience. Rangers probably don't match but do the Habs want to make an enemy of the Rangers organization over a player who hasn't proven much at the NHL level to justify such a move? Rangers can and will spite offersheet back in the future. Maybe that's worth it if you are getting a truce 1C or 1D or #1 goalie but not worth it for a prospect who's been just ok.

 

[bleeding blue]

The picks aren't the misstep, the handling of them is

debatable.....at a certain point the player needs to be responsible and take advantage of opportunities.

 

[bleeding blue]

And unlucky enough to be drafted by a team that has no room for them and gave them very little playing time with good players.

#1 pick's are supposed to be able to carry lines, not need good players to succeed. I get he gets little to no power play time, but I have watched every pro game he has played and I am not sure I can say he has earned it. You want to say given the power play or first line time he would have developed better? l I can see the merit in that argument I am just not sure I agree, at a certain point talent rises and his hasnt in my opinion.

 

[Flair Hay]

Have the Habs learnt nothing from the Carolina experience. Rangers probably don't match but do the Habs want to make an enemy of the Rangers organization over a player who hasn't proven much at the NHL level to justify such a move? Rangers can and will spite offersheet back in the future. Maybe that's worth it if you are getting a truce 1C or 1D or #1 goalie but not worth it for a prospect who's been just ok.

This is the only obstacle I see to this happening. Because it does make a lot of sense for a team to try to poach him while his value is at its lowest to the Rangers and league wide.

But the Rangers could be a powerful enemy, especially for a smaller market.

I think it's a chance worth taking, but there is that mutually assured destruction element to offer sheets.

If there is ever a time it makes sense, it is with a struggling top pick on a good, veteran team without a lot of cap space...

If a team has a hole at top six wing and some cap space, why not try to get him with a well thought out offer?

 

[TGWL]

Have the Habs learnt nothing from the Carolina experience. Rangers probably don't match but do the Habs want to make an enemy of the Rangers organization over a player who hasn't proven much at the NHL level to justify such a move? Rangers can and will spite offersheet back in the future. Maybe that's worth it if you are getting a truce 1C or 1D or #1 goalie but not worth it for a prospect who's been just ok.

Montreal has money. They have a young roster and could problem afford to match anything that isn't a way overpayment out of spite. But with that said, you've got Gorton there, and I wouldn't put it past the NYR ownership to try and get some spiteful revenge that doesn't make sense on the cap in the future.

 

[Srsly]

It’s an interesting proposition but if I’m honest I feel the Habs can get him for less in a trade at this point. He could be worth it and he might not be. That said the team shouldn’t be moving futures unless they want to end up with a Leafs/Kessel situation in an almost best case scenario.

 

[Chose]

And the teams ahead of us got better, Detroit, Ottawa, buffalo as did Columbus.

According to Dom Luszczyszyn's model (The Athletic), Montreal is the 9th most improved team...

Which NHL teams have improved the most this offseason? Rating all 32 teams

From most value added to least, rating each team based on whether they have more talent than they did at the start of the offseason.

theathletic.com

If I remember correctly, Montreal will not only be playing agains't the Atlantic... -_-

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Habs were 5th last in the NHL with historic injuries. If not for those injuries, we would have picked 8-12 range. Add the one year of growth from our youth and I have us in the 8-16 range with our pick.

It's not far off from the Romanov+ for 13th for Dach trade. Would you have more faith in Lafreniere today vs where Dach was before last season?

Risky yes. But the Habs will be in the mix of that bottom 8-16 range IMO. I think we are going to be moving up, not down.

I, and I’m sure many other people, hope you are incredibly wrong.

This coming draft, we need a top 3 pick.

 

[Chose]

I also think Habs will improve this year.
Tossing aside the fact that Montreal missed the most man/games to injuries last year and last is probably a mistake. Time will tell.

NHL 2022-23 Regular Season Man-Games Lost and Injury Metrics – Man-Games Lost

www.mangameslost.com

 

[cwgatti]

Jumping in late here, but do the Habs have a legit top Right Wing prospect that could be offered back in a straight trade for Lafreniere? Any combo of said RW+ draft pick?

A quick look shows that Motreal may need more Right Wings than even the NYR. This deal makes no sense.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Jumping in late here, but do the Habs have a legit top Right Wing prospect that could be offered back in a straight trade for Lafreniere? Any combo of said RW+ draft pick?

A quick look shows that Motreal may need more Right Wings than even the NYR. This deal makes no sense.

They don’t and if they did, I doubt Montreal would want to part with a top prospect for Lafreniere.