Value of: Lafreniere Offer Sheet (1 year at $6.4M)

[Habs Halifax]

Lafreniere is not worth a pick as high as 6OA. His value is much closer to a pick between 25-40. That’s why an offer sheet of 4.2 is actually very fair compensation for the Rangers. They get a second, and that’s likely quite high if it’s the Habs involved.

Habs don't own our 2nd in the next draft. Not possible for us to make that move.

My mind is on what kind of future Lafreniere has. Does he have modest gains like Kotkaniemi or does he have a break out season in him. Your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Pietrangelo]

Pick #55 + #72 + #136 to WPG
For MTL 2nd pick #40

Offer sheet Laf 1 x 4.2

I think that gets it done

IIRC the pics you use for an offer sheet have to be your own. I think they went over it on the 32 thoughts podcast, but I could be wrong.

 

[Ruggs225]

Lafreniere is not worth a pick as high as 6OA. His value is much closer to a pick between 25-40. That’s why an offer sheet of 4.2 is actually very fair compensation for the Rangers. They get a second, and that’s likely quite high if it’s the Habs involved.

No, not even close. Like absurdly not even close.

He is a 21 year old middle six player today. With first line upside. His worth is a hell of a lot more than a trade deadline rental bottom six player.

The overrating of picks is absurd.

Put it this way. If Laf was on your team, what do u think his value would be. I am sure as shit you wouldn't settle for a high second. And u know why? Because you know he is worth more than that.

The fact that there are so many threads made about acquiring him shows he has value. And everybody w him for a steal. You know why? Bc people know the Rangers mismanaged the hell put of him and he will be a top line player if given a proper chance and role.

 

[ProjectPanthers]

Great opportunity for the Rangers to screw up yet another top-5 draft pick

 

[Habs Halifax]

No, not even close. Like absurdly not even close.

He is a 21 year old middle six player today. With first line upside. His worth is a hell of a lot more than a trade deadline rental bottom six player.

The overrating of picks is absurd.

Put it this way. If Laf was on your team, what do u think his value would be. I am sure as shit you wouldn't settle for a high second. And u know why? Because you know he is worth more than that.

The fact that there are so many threads made about acquiring him shows he has value. And everybody w him for a steal. You know why? Bc people know the Rangers mismanaged the hell put of him and he will be a top line player if given a proper chance and role.

Fans tend to dwell and overact with exaggeration. Personally, I see potential in Lafreniere and there is a possible break out season in him from age 22+. Habs paid a Romaonv/13th price for Dach and that was a great move. I would see this as a similar move but with more risks. Habs pick could be 6-12 or lottery win. Personally, I see the Habs moving up slightly if we stay healthy. Fans are doing what they do and pegging us as bottom 5. Last season was not a true reflection of our improving roster with all those injuries.

I'd say Lafreniere has 13th pick value (like Dach last off season). If he has another season like the previous, then it gets to become a concern and his value drops more. It's difficult to guess on.

 

[Colezuki]

If your going to OS Laf you need to do it now (before the cap goes up) and you need to put the rangers in a spot where they cant compete with it. Right now they have Belzile and Pitlick on there bottom 6 making $800k, neither player should be in the bottom 6 and they should be filling it with depth guys in the $1M range, that leaves $2M in space for laf. If you offered 1 yr $4.2M the Rangers would need to get rid of one of Miller, Lindgren, Kakko, Goodrow or Chytil to keep him. I don't think the habs do it, but I wonder if someone like a chicago/arizona/SJ or even Ana would consider it?

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

IIRC the pics you use for an offer sheet have to be your own. I think they went over it on the 32 thoughts podcast, but I could be wrong.

Winnipeg has our 2nd , so we would be getting our 2nd back from Winnipeg to do the offer sheet is what he's saying. Not likely

 

[koyvoo]

Looks like this thread has turned into... Habs will suck replies.

Lack of focus on Lafreniere and what kind of player he can or won't be at age 22+. I guess most fans think he will not turn into a good top 6F.

Because the subject are directly linked. You’re giving up your unprotected first. Most people think that pick will be far too high…because Montreal will be a bottom team. Thread has T turned into anything it isn’t supposed to. It’s just people yelling you exactly why that pick will be too much to pay.

And they’re all 100% right. Even if someone still believes in Laf’s potential, he no longer holds anywhere the value of a top 5-10, even mid round 1st round pick.

 

[Pietrangelo]

Winnipeg has our 2nd , so we would be getting our 2nd back from Winnipeg to do the offer sheet is what he's saying. Not likely

Ahhh gotcha

 

[Habs Halifax]

Because the subject are directly linked. You’re giving up your unprotected first. Most people think that pick will be far too high…because Montreal will be a bottom team. Thread has T turned into anything it isn’t supposed to. It’s just people yelling you exactly why that pick will be too much to pay.

And they’re all 100% right. Even if someone still believes in Laf’s potential, he no longer holds anywhere the value of a top 5-10, even mid round 1st round pick.

You think that way because of three reasons. You could be right or wrong but the comical part is acting like an opinion is a fact there is no other possible outcomes.

1) Habs pick is "guaranteed" to be bottom 10
and
2) Lafreniere will "not improve" from age 22"
and
3) All the guys in the top 10 in the next draft will be better than Lafreniere.

Personally, I do think think Lafreneire has Dach type value last summer. That was the 13th pick. I do think he improves from age 22+ but I get how most fans are meh on him. I can see many different outcomes.

I'll remember this one. Good to revisit this in a few years to see if it would have been a horrible move or a good one. Or one that didn't matter... wash. I'm 50/50 on this idea but some will try to say I was 100% desperate to do it because they have belittle strategy with their posting.

 

[Fatass]

No, not even close. Like absurdly not even close.

He is a 21 year old middle six player today. With first line upside. His worth is a hell of a lot more than a trade deadline rental bottom six player.

The overrating of picks is absurd.

Put it this way. If Laf was on your team, what do u think his value would be. I am sure as shit you wouldn't settle for a high second. And u know why? Because you know he is worth more than that.

The fact that there are so many threads made about acquiring him shows he has value. And everybody w him for a steal. You know why? Bc people know the Rangers mismanaged the hell put of him and he will be a top line player if given a proper chance and role.

Lafreniere is worth a high second. That’s why an offer sheet of 4.2 is fair. I would expect the Rangers would match though.

 

[TGWL]

Im sad that this is even a thread, can the Rangers just give Kakko and Laf the chance to become what they were supposed to be? Yes i know they got Mika Z and Panarin, but give these 2 dudes 2nd line minutes and PP time and they just might surprise you. Just like Patrik Laine said when asked why he wasn't scoring when he was in the doghouse "Well i sit on the bench, and i dont have long enough stick to score from there."

But what are they supposed to be, and how much of a potential, top 3 divisional success, do you push aside for Laf and Kakko? This isn't a Chicago situation where Bedard is coming in to be the guy. At the end of the day, Rangers probably had no right winning the the lotto while participating in the play-in round. They were 2 points out of a wildcard playoff spot when the season came to a halt.

What is Lafreniere's ceiling vs what's his ceiling on NYR? Is it the same? Probably not. At some point if you think this kid has some real talent, you probably have to do what's best for him and let him go to a team that can give him a better opportunity to reach that ceiling. There's simply no room on the top powerplay for both. Maybe 1. Maybe you rotate them in an out. I'm really not sure what the plan is for getting them more minutes. Lafreniere looked lost on the right side so shifting to that open opportunity, again, doesn't seem to be in his best interest.

The organization needs to make a hard decision on what they want to happen going forward. If this is truly win at all cost, then trade them already. If the goal is to give these young players every opportunity to reach their potential ceiling, then you need to actually give them the opportunity for that, even if that means taking a step back and moving on from some vets. It's a tough choice because you just saw a team go to the ECF, then easily make the playoffs in back to back seasons. The answers on what you do really defends on what the organization is going for.

 

[tailfins]

You think that way because of three reasons. You could be right or wrong but the comical part is acting like an opinion is a fact there is no other possible outcomes.

1) Habs pick is "guaranteed" to be bottom 10
and
2) Lafreniere will "not improve" from age 22"
and
3) All the guys in the top 10 in the next draft will be better than Lafreniere.

Personally, I do think think Lafreneire has Dach type value last summer. That was the 13th pick. I do think he improves from age 22+ but I get how most fans are meh on him. I can see many different outcomes.

I'll remember this one. Good to revisit this in a few years to see if it would have been a horrible move or a good one. Or one that didn't matter... wash. I'm 50/50 on this idea but some will try to say I was 100% desperate to do it because they have belittle strategy with their posting.

The value of a high first round pick is not only the talent they bring, but also the chance for them to produce in the NHL while on an ELC. If you can get a top 6 player on an ELC, it's huge value in a cap environment.

If the Habs are willing to part with an unprotected first for Laf, that means they think he's going to be very good. In that world, you'd prefer Laf signed for a couple / few years in a way that Laf could outproduce the contract.

This is the reason people are suggesting a trade. If the Rangers would take an unprotected first for Lafreniere, the Habs could then sign him to a multi-year bridge deal (or whatever). If you sign him to a one year offer sheet, there's very little chance he outperforms - since he'll be able to adjust his value immediately next year. The difference in material in terms of the value a team would give up.

Of course, if you don't think Laf is worth a high first, that's a whole separate issue

 

[Kupo]

Great opportunity for the Rangers to screw up yet another top-5 draft pick

Yet another? They've had a total of 3 top 5 picks in the last half century. Are all your posts this clueless?

Lafreniere is worth a high second. That’s why an offer sheet of 4.2 is fair. I would expect the Rangers would match though.

He's worth a high second, because you say so?

Lias Andersson who has half the pedigree of Laf, went for a 2nd round pick after 3 season's in NY where he played a total of 66 games and produced a whopping 3 goals and 6 assists. The same Lias Andersson who quit on the team and went back to Sweden because of mental health issues, depression and anxiety.

You don't know jack shit about what Laf is worth, Fat Ass. Stop playing the he's worth a high second because I don't really know anything about player's, value but in my delusional head I think I do card.

 

[Fatass]

Yet another? They've had a total of 3 top 5 picks in the last half century. Are all your posts this clueless?



He's worth a high second, because you say so?

Lias Andersson who has half the pedigree of Laf, went for a 2nd round pick after 3 season's in NY where he played a total of 66 games and produced a whopping 3 goals and 6 assists. The same Lias Andersson who quit on the team and went back to Sweden because of mental health issues, depression and anxiety.

You don't know jack shit about what Laf is worth, Fat Ass. Stop playing the he's worth a high second because I don't really know anything about player's, value but in my delusional head I think I do card.

Your opinion is Lafreniere is worth as high as a 6OA pick, right? Mine is he’s worth the compensation from a 4.2 mil offer sheet. Our opinions differ. It’s a hockey chat site. Nothing we write here means anything in the real world.

 

[Trash Panda]

Yet another? They've had a total of 3 top 5 picks in the last half century. Are all your posts this clueless?

I mean, 2 of those have been in the last 5 years, and neither of them is looking to be a good return on investment. “Yet another” is fair.

Probably could spare the personal attacks and at least acknowledge that there is some truth to be had there.

 

[hawksrule]

No, not even close. Like absurdly not even close.

He is a 21 year old middle six player today. With first line upside. His worth is a hell of a lot more than a trade deadline rental bottom six player.

The overrating of picks is absurd.

Put it this way. If Laf was on your team, what do u think his value would be. I am sure as shit you wouldn't settle for a high second. And u know why? Because you know he is worth more than that.

The fact that there are so many threads made about acquiring him shows he has value. And everybody w him for a steal. You know why? Bc people know the Rangers mismanaged the hell put of him and he will be a top line player if given a proper chance and role.

He comes up in so many trade threads because it’s interesting when a mega-hyped first overall flops so badly, not because anyone’s salivating over his (lack of) skills.

 

[Kupo]

Your opinion is Lafreniere is worth as high as a 6OA pick, right? Mine is he’s worth the compensation from a 4.2 mil offer sheet. Our opinions differ. It’s a hockey chat site. Nothing we write here means anything in the real world.

I never commented on what he's worth, so I'm not sure why you think I believe he's worth the 6OA. And yeah, opinions can differ. 100%. The fact is your opinion is wrong.

I mean, 2 of those have been in the last 5 years, and neither of them is looking to be a good return on investment. “Yet another” is fair.

Probably could spare the personal attacks and at least acknowledge that there is some truth to be had there.

Yet Another would be applicable if there was a history or trend. 2 in the last 5 years, or 3 in 50+ years isn't a trend. Especially considering that the latter two are still developing players.

 

[Trash Panda]

I never commented on what he's worth, so I'm not sure why you think I believe he's worth the 6OA. And yeah, opinions can differ. 100%. The fact is your opinion is wrong.



Yet Another would be applicable if there was a history or trend. 2 in the last 5 years, or 3 in 50+ years isn't a trend. Especially considering that the latter two are still developing players.

3 in 50? Absolutely not.

2 in 5? I guess we are just arguing semantics here, but that’s at least something of statistical significance. Whatever.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The value of a high first round pick is not only the talent they bring, but also the chance for them to produce in the NHL while on an ELC. If you can get a top 6 player on an ELC, it's huge value in a cap environment.

If the Habs are willing to part with an unprotected first for Laf, that means they think he's going to be very good. In that world, you'd prefer Laf signed for a couple / few years in a way that Laf could outproduce the contract.

This is the reason people are suggesting a trade. If the Rangers would take an unprotected first for Lafreniere, the Habs could then sign him to a multi-year bridge deal (or whatever). If you sign him to a one year offer sheet, there's very little chance he outperforms - since he'll be able to adjust his value immediately next year. The difference in material in terms of the value a team would give up.

Of course, if you don't think Laf is worth a high first, that's a whole separate issue

That is the dilemma. Do you believe in Lafreniere from age 22+ or not.

Then the other angle is what does the pick end up being and how many in the 6-12 range are hits in the next draft. I don't believe the Habs end up bottom 5 this season. People can disagree with that all they want. Fans get emotionally connected to top 10 picks being all hits and better than Lafreniere. I get that part but lets not pretend everyone from the 6-12 range will be better than who Lafreniere is today. It just don't work that way.

It would be higher risks than the 13th for Dach trade. Because we don't know exactly where the pick is.

 

[tailfins]

That is the dilemma. Do you believe in Lafreniere from age 22+ or not.

Then the other angle is what does the pick end up being and how many in the 6-12 range are hits in the next draft. I don't believe the Habs end up bottom 5 this season. People can disagree with that all they want. Fans get emotionally connected to top 10 picks being all hits and better than Lafreniere. I get that part but lets not pretend everyone from the 6-12 range will be better than who Lafreniere is today. It just don't work that way.

It would be higher risks than the 13th for Dach trade. Because we don't know exactly where the pick is.

Not at all clear that 6-12 next year won't outproduce Lafreniere. Some may, some won't. But, it's also whether or not they can deliver similar / better performance cheaper.

In a hard cap world, there's a constant need to optimize performance per dollar spent. Your offer sheet approach doesn't do that.

The major (repeatable) sources of outpeformance seem to be: ELCs; betting early on rising stars (Hughes, Robertson, etc.); and top stars taking less and overachieving (MacKinnon for years, Marchand, etc.).

With Lafreniere, you're talking about scenario 2 (betting early on a rising star), but - if bet correctly - you're setting it up so that Laf can renegotiate in a year to get more money.

If you're going to make the bet, you need to do so in a way that the upside is worth the risk.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Your opinion is Lafreniere is worth as high as a 6OA pick, right? Mine is he’s worth the compensation from a 4.2 mil offer sheet. Our opinions differ. It’s a hockey chat site. Nothing we write here means anything in the real world.

If the Rangers had the cap space, they match the offer of $4.2M. Matching for them or not is about their cap structure. He's worth more than a 2nd rounder today. People are out of line. Kulak as a rental returned a 2nd. Lafreniere is not at Yakupov disappointment level after the ELC. To those gullible style posters... quick, go look up the stats

True value right now today? It's not a top 10 pick but 11-20 range maybe? Hard to say but he is worth a 1st rounder. Subjective at what range of a 1st.

I'd love to bounce this forward in 1 year. Doubt anybody offer sheets him but would be interesting to evaluate it in a few years. Would it have been a good, bad, or meh move. You don't get a chance to steel away a 1st OA pick from someone that often so yeah... I repeat, do you believe in Lafreniere from age 22+ or not. Most here do not

 

[I Hate Philadelphia]

Lol this would be hilarious, he's worth ~$1.75 max.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Not at all clear that 6-12 next year won't outproduce Lafreniere. Some may, some won't. But, it's also whether or not they can deliver similar / better performance cheaper.

In a hard cap world, there's a constant need to optimize performance per dollar spent. Your offer sheet approach doesn't do that.

The major (repeatable) sources of outpeformance seem to be: ELCs; betting early on rising stars (Hughes, Robertson, etc.); and top stars taking less and overachieving (MacKinnon for years, Marchand, etc.).

With Lafreniere, you're talking about scenario 2 (betting early on a rising star), but - if bet correctly - you're setting it up so that Laf can renegotiate in a year to get more money.

If you're going to make the bet, you need to do so in a way that the upside is worth the risk.

Most in the 6-12 range take as much time as Lafreniere (ELC) today. Most in the 6-12 range don't even start in the NHL until age 20+.

Listing past hits does not quantify anything.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Lol this would be hilarious, he's worth ~$1.75 max.

Average numbers like 15-18 goals and 35-40 pts heading into his age 22 season is worth more than $1.75M max. You're guilty of exaggeration