Kyle Dubas discussion II

[Ciao]

I like Dubas and I think he's doing a pretty good job.

Anyone can see that he makes his fair share of mistakes, but he must be doing something right or the Leafs wouldn't be sitting third overall more than 70 games into the season.

As far as I know, this year's playoffs have not yet begun. That will be a whole new season, and I think the Leafs' chances of success are at least as good as most other playoff-bound teams.

What's in the past is in the past. I'm looking forward to the future.

 

[Gabriel426]

I like Dubas and I think he's doing a pretty good job.

Anyone can see that he makes his fair share of mistakes, but he must be doing something right or the Leafs wouldn't be sitting third overall more than 70 games into the season.

As far as I know, this year's playoffs have not yet begun. That will be a whole new season, and I think the Leafs' chances of success are at least as good as most other playoff-bound teams.

What's in the past is in the past. I'm looking forward to the future.

I think at the end of the day, playoffs will determine the success of the team and Dubas. This is not an exclusive Leafsnation thing but any Sports team thing.

To me, the top guys need to step up in the playoffs. Even last year failure cannot be on Dubas bc you have the reigning Rocket Winner and the First team All star combing for ONE goal in 7 games.

Really looking forward for the playoffs as I think this team collectively are learning how to score playoff tight goals with tip ins and driving to the net.

 

[Puckstuff]

I'll give Dubas a score for every player he acquired on the team considering WAR (or market value) per cap hit, which is probably the most important metric in a cap league. I'm also only considering players that will make the NHL playoff roster.

Players that were not his acquisition as GM: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Lilly, Engvall, Holl.

Minimal impact players not worth rating: Spezza, Clifford, Simmonds.

Looking at his acquisitions:

note - Market values are totally subjective and this is meant to be an approximate valuation, not takin literally. But I think you will find them all within reason of 1-2 million of their market value. Younger players and older players out of form are the hardest to value and therefore are the most volatile. Lilly and Muzzin were the hardest for me to rank and could easily have their market value swing in either direction just by 4 weeks of good or bad play.

Bunting (+51) Market value = 6 million. Actual salary = 0.9 million. + value of 5.1 million.
Mikheyev (+23.5) Market value = 4.0 million. Actual salary = 1.65 million. + value of 2.35 million.
Brodie (+15) Market value = 6.5 million. Actual salary = 5 million. + value of 1.5 million.
Blackwell (+13) Market value = 2.0 million. Actual salary = 0.725 million. + value of 1.275 million.
Kase (+7.5) Market value = 2.00 million. Actual salary = 1.25 million. + value of 0.75 million.
Giordano (+6) Market value = 4.0 million. Actual salary = 3.375 + value of 0.625 million.
Kerfoot (+5) Market value = 4.0 million. Actual salary = 3.5 million. + value of 0.5 million.
Kampf (+0) Market value = 1.5 million. Actual salary = 1.5 million. + value of 0 million.
Lyubushkin (+0) Market value = 1.35 million. Actual salary = 1.35 million. + value of 0 million.

Total surplus positive value of 12.1 million over market value.

To volatile to rank: Campbell.
Unsure of playoff status: Sandin.

I'm unsure if Sandin will make it to the playoff roster even if he's healthy over the other 6 d. Campbell is to volatile to rank. He could stand on his head in the playoffs or he could be a complete flop and cost us the whole playoffs.

The negative:
Tavares (-20) Market value = 9 million. Actual salary = 11.0 million. - value of - 2.0 million.
Mrazek (-27) Market value = 0. (not playing) dead cap space. - Value of - -2.675 million if burried.
Muzzin (-45) Market value = 1.0 million. Actual salary = 5.625 million. - value of - -4.5 million if burried.

Total negative value of 9.175 million.


Positive surplus - negative surplus = +2.925 million

The other 7 he didn't acquire so he can't get credit for them. Plus i'm not overly thrilled about those contracts at the time, even though they have all out played them this year.

Basically he's done a good job at finding good cheap talent below market value but his 2 or 3 mistakes have really cost him imo.

The volatility factor on Campbell and goaltending in general adds a high level of risk for me which could swing this in either direction during the playoffs.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Goalies are so weird.

Fleury among the weirdest, in that it's like he has a personality disorder.....he swings so hard and fast from great to garbage. If you get the great....awesome!

 

[francis246]

I'll give Dubas a score for every player he acquired on the team considering WAR (or market value) per cap hit, which is probably the most important metric in a cap league. I'm also only considering players that will make the NHL playoff roster.

Players that were not his acquisition as GM: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Engvall, Holl.

Minimal impact players not worth rating: Spezza, Clifford, Simmonds.

Looking at his acquisitions:

note - Market values are totally subjective and this is meant to be an approximate valuation, not takin literally. But I think you will find them all within reason of 1-2 million of their market value. Younger players and older players out of form are the hardest to value and therefore are the most volatile. Lilly and Muzzin were the hardest for me to rank and could easily have their market value swing in either direction just by 4 weeks of good or bad play.

Bunting (+51) Market value = 6 million. Actual salary = 0.9 million. + value of 5.1 million.
Mikheyev (+23.5) Market value = 4.0 million. Actual salary = 1.65 million. + value of 2.35 million.
Liliegren (+31) Market value = 4 million. Actual salary = 0.9 million. + value of 3.1 million.
Brodie (+15) Market value = 6.5 million. Actual salary = 5 million. + value of 1.5 million.
Blackwell (+13) Market value = 2.0 million. Actual salary = 0.725 million. + value of 1.275 million.
Kase (+7.5) Market value = 2.00 million. Actual salary = 1.25 million. + value of 0.75 million.
Giordano (+6) Market value = 4.0 million. Actual salary = 3.375 + value of 0.625 million.
Kerfoot (+5) Market value = 4.0 million. Actual salary = 3.5 million. + value of 0.5 million.
Kampf (+0) Market value = 1.5 million. Actual salary = 1.5 million. + value of 0 million.
Lyubushkin (+0) Market value = 1.35 million. Actual salary = 1.35 million. + value of 0 million.

Total surplus positive value of 15.2 million over market value.

To volatile to rank: Campbell.
Unsure of playoff status: Sandin.

I'm unsure if Sandin will make it to the playoff roster even if he's healthy over the other 6 d. Campbell is to volatile to rank. He could stand on his head in the playoffs or he could be a complete flop and cost us the whole playoffs.

The negative:
Tavares (-20) Market value = 9 million. Actual salary = 11.0 million. - value of - 2.0 million.
Mrazek (-27) Market value = 0. (not playing) dead cap space. - Value of - -2.675 million if burried.
Muzzin (-45) Market value = 1.0 million. Actual salary = 5.625 million. - value of - -4.5 million if burried.

Total negative value of 9.175 million.


Positive surplus - negative surplus = +6.025 million (or 1 Michael Bunting) lol.

The other 6 he didn't acquire so he can't get credit for them. Plus i'm not overly thrilled about those contracts at the time, even though they have all out played them this year.

Basically he's done a very good job at finding good cheap talent below market value but his 2 or 3 mistakes have really cost him imo.

The volatility factor on Campbell and goaltending in general adds a high level of risk for me which could swing this in either direction during the playoffs.

Liljegren was not a Dubas acquisition, was drafted while Dubas was AGM.

 

[conFABulator]

I'll give Dubas a score for every player he acquired on the team considering WAR (or market value) per cap hit, which is probably the most important metric in a cap league. I'm also only considering players that will make the NHL playoff roster.

Players that were not his acquisition as GM: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Engvall, Holl.

Minimal impact players not worth rating: Spezza, Clifford, Simmonds.

Looking at his acquisitions:

note - Market values are totally subjective and this is meant to be an approximate valuation, not takin literally. But I think you will find them all within reason of 1-2 million of their market value. Younger players and older players out of form are the hardest to value and therefore are the most volatile. Lilly and Muzzin were the hardest for me to rank and could easily have their market value swing in either direction just by 4 weeks of good or bad play.

Bunting (+51) Market value = 6 million. Actual salary = 0.9 million. + value of 5.1 million.
Mikheyev (+23.5) Market value = 4.0 million. Actual salary = 1.65 million. + value of 2.35 million.
Liliegren (+31) Market value = 4 million. Actual salary = 0.9 million. + value of 3.1 million.
Brodie (+15) Market value = 6.5 million. Actual salary = 5 million. + value of 1.5 million.
Blackwell (+13) Market value = 2.0 million. Actual salary = 0.725 million. + value of 1.275 million.
Kase (+7.5) Market value = 2.00 million. Actual salary = 1.25 million. + value of 0.75 million.
Giordano (+6) Market value = 4.0 million. Actual salary = 3.375 + value of 0.625 million.
Kerfoot (+5) Market value = 4.0 million. Actual salary = 3.5 million. + value of 0.5 million.
Kampf (+0) Market value = 1.5 million. Actual salary = 1.5 million. + value of 0 million.
Lyubushkin (+0) Market value = 1.35 million. Actual salary = 1.35 million. + value of 0 million.

Total surplus positive value of 15.2 million over market value.

To volatile to rank: Campbell.
Unsure of playoff status: Sandin.

I'm unsure if Sandin will make it to the playoff roster even if he's healthy over the other 6 d. Campbell is to volatile to rank. He could stand on his head in the playoffs or he could be a complete flop and cost us the whole playoffs.

The negative:
Tavares (-20) Market value = 9 million. Actual salary = 11.0 million. - value of - 2.0 million.
Mrazek (-27) Market value = 0. (not playing) dead cap space. - Value of - -2.675 million if burried.
Muzzin (-45) Market value = 1.0 million. Actual salary = 5.625 million. - value of - -4.5 million if burried.

Total negative value of 9.175 million.


Positive surplus - negative surplus = +6.025 million (or 1 Michael Bunting) lol.

The other 6 he didn't acquire so he can't get credit for them. Plus i'm not overly thrilled about those contracts at the time, even though they have all out played them this year.

Basically he's done a very good job at finding good cheap talent below market value but his 2 or 3 mistakes have really cost him imo.

The volatility factor on Campbell and goaltending in general adds a high level of risk for me which could swing this in either direction during the playoffs.

This is interesting analysis, thanks.

I am not sure I agree that it makes sense to exclude the players Dubas inherited though since each and every one of them were signed to their current contracts by him.

Since this exercise is largely about allocation of cap dollars I am quite curious to see what those players actual to projected value deltas are.

Can you provide or point me to the link to so it myself?

 

[Kazparov]

I will save my full review of Dubas until after the post season

Will give him credit on learning from his mistakes on team make up. And I think what he's done with the defense over the past few years is pretty remarkable.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I like Dubas and I think he's doing a pretty good job.

Anyone can see that he makes his fair share of mistakes, but he must be doing something right or the Leafs wouldn't be sitting third overall more than 70 games into the season.

As far as I know, this year's playoffs have not yet begun. That will be a whole new season, and I think the Leafs' chances of success are at least as good as most other playoff-bound teams.

What's in the past is in the past. I'm looking forward to the future.

The reason the team has improved so much is that the core players, namely Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly have all entered their peak years. Going from a ~65 point forward to a ~105 point forward will elevate the team, big time.

These guys were here before Dubas became GM, and were going to progress regardless of who was in charge. He gets no credit for them, or the 105 point team he inherited as a baseline. The real question is, how well did he do with the core’s contracts, and how well did he do filling out the rest of the team? Not very well, in my view.

 

[The Podium]

The reason the team has improved so much is that the core players, namely Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly have all entered their peak years. Going from a ~65 point forward to a ~105 point forward will elevate the team, big time.

These guys were here before Dubas became GM, and were going to progress regardless of who was in charge. He gets no credit for them, or the 105 point team he inherited as a baseline. The real question is, how well did he do with the core’s contracts, and how well did he do filling out the rest of the team? Not very well, in my view.

I mean, that’s no true, if a GM trades them the team doesn’t get the benefit of their progression. Is the chemistry with Michael Bunting easily replaceable? Is Keefe getting the most out of them or would Babcock/whomever do the same?

The cores contracts
Nylander - steal
Marner overpaid by? He’s a soon to be 100 point player so I’d say he almost lives up to it. Let’s call him a 9.5-10 mill player so less than 1 mill overpaid
Matthews - term I guess, but he has far exceed his AAV
Reilly - below market value full term - great

How did he do filling the rest of the team?

One of the deepest top 9s in the league, respectable D probably in the 6-8 range league wide, and questionable goaltending.

Seems like every problem is eventually addressed, 3 years on the job and we have the best D core we’ve had in decades and we filled out the depth forwards which apparently shouldn’t have been possible. I bet next year G is solved while the majority of the team is still under contract.

Some people have no patience and want a perfect team immediately, not accounting for the fact that Avs and Tampas current teams had fallen out of the playoffs mid contention window before they came back to be the powerhouses they are today.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

The reason the team has improved so much is that the core players, namely Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly have all entered their peak years. Going from a ~65 point forward to a ~105 point forward will elevate the team, big time.

These guys were here before Dubas became GM, and were going to progress regardless of who was in charge. He gets no credit for them, or the 105 point team he inherited as a baseline. The real question is, how well did he do with the core’s contracts, and how well did he do filling out the rest of the team? Not very well, in my view.

Marner came while he was at the helm.

Give us a comparison of the 105 point d corps and rest of the forwards.

 

[Mess]

I will save my full review of Dubas until after the post season

Will give him credit on learning from his mistakes on team make up. And I think what he's done with the defense over the past few years is pretty remarkable.

Its a results oriented business not a transactional review, so like you I agree it will come done to how this team performs in the playoffs that will be the ultimate measure of GM performance.

Dubas walked into the job inheriting a 100+ point playoff team, and a hard faught 7 game playoff round #1 loss to Boston, while being handed the keys to perhaps the Leafs team's all-time franchise best player Auston Matthews and a perennial 50 goal scorer from his predecessor to build upon.

 

[ITM]

Waiver claim casualties coupled with Dubas' finds that could become available, I think bode well in any future deals Dubas chooses to or has to leverage.

We're at a point in the Dubas conversation where criticism is now beyond whether he's a good GM; it's moved to the is he THE GM that's going to give us the best shot once and for the foreseeable future...

...I can't find reasons why he wouldn't be.

50 wins, 6th best differential, and with an asterisk given that Campbell dip. A dip that still finds him: 29-9-5 on the season, and as a Leaf: 49-14-8 in 74 games.

 

[4thline]

I mean, that’s no true, if a GM trades them the team doesn’t get the benefit of their progression.

Nah, they're not people, just inevitably improving assets. How they're treated has no bearing on their performance. There was never any debate about keeping them.

The only other outcome from a different negotiating approach was lower value contracts with longer term, not strained relationships and bridge deals, certainly not trades when lines in the sand were drawn.

Certainly no chance that a disciplinarian type would have sided with the coach over primadonna youngsters and traded one to send a message.

It's inconceivable that anyone could have given up on them after playoff disappointments and moved on, because it certainly wasn't discussed that doubling down and betting on them was a GM sticking his neck out and betting his job.

No. No credit at all.

 

[hotpaws]

Marner came while he was at the helm.

Give us a comparison of the 105 point d corps and rest of the forwards.

Marner was obviously a Hunter pick .

If you want to give credit to Dubas then it should be for going to Shanny and having him force Hunter to draft Korshov which followed Dubies philosophy of drafting based on inefficiencies which he believes are over agers and Smurfs .

and if you can find and draft an over age Smurf like Big Mac Holliwell then you’ve hit the Jackpot !!!

 

[Leaf Fans]

Spot on and I wish I could give you a like !

It is not spot on. It is completely wrong.

 

[hotpaws]

It is not spot on. It is completely wrong.

so you’re saying you believe Mathews/Marner wouldn’t have improved from there 2nd year in the league ?

That’s a very strange opinion to have .

 

[Leaf Fans]

so you’re saying you believe Mathews/Marner wouldn’t have improved from there 2nd year in the league ?

That’s a very strange opinion to have .

No, obviously not. I am saying that Dubas gets credit for building the team as it constructed today.

 

[hotpaws]

No, obviously not. I am saying that Dubas gets credit for building the team as it constructed today.

Don’t back track , you said his post is completely wrong which included him saying Mathews and Marner would have improved regardless of who was GM .

So explain why you believe they peaked in their 2nd year .

 

[Leaf Fans]

Don’t back track , you said his post is completely wrong which included him saying Mathews and Marner would have improved regardless of who was GM .

So explain why you believe they peaked in their 2nd year .

That is your belief. My belief is that Dubas should and does get full credit for constructing the team as it is today.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Marner came while he was at the helm.

Erm, what?

Marner was on the team already before Dubas was named GM. He was a 19-goal, 61-point forward as a rookie, and he’s now at 94 points and counting this year so under normal circumstances it would be natural to expect the team to have improved over that time.

 

[The Podium]

Erm, what?

Marner was on the team already before Dubas was named GM. He was a 19-goal, 61-point forward as a rookie, and he’s now at 94 points and counting this year so under normal circumstances it would be natural to expect the team to have improved over that time.

He was drafted during Dubas’ time as interim GM

 

[Leaf Fans]

Erm, what?

Marner was on the team already before Dubas was named GM. He was a 19-goal, 61-point forward as a rookie, and he’s now at 94 points and counting this year so under normal circumstances it would be natural to expect the team to have improved over that time.

It is very likely, but irrelevant as he improved with Dubas at the helm.

 

[ACC1224]

He was drafted during Dubas’ time as interim GM

Believe that’s correct. He and Hunter were both interim at the time.

 

[zeke]

Dubas gets no credit for the elite players but gets blamed for their playoffs failures l

 

[Leaf Fans]

Dubas gets no credit for the elite players but gets blamed for their playoffs failures l

He does get the credit, but a few people want to discredit him.