Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

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Injuries combined with the dramatic collapse in goaltending performance cost this team an absolute ton of points....and Keefe still had a 103 point pace as coach.

If the goaltending bounces back, watch out NHL.....

Yeah the goaltending is definitely THE question mark, other than that this team looks to be completely stacked. It's a pretty big question mark though and super important considering how important goaltending is in the playoffs so still makes me a bit nervous to think about it. At least we have Campbell, hopefully he can step in if needed.
 
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Sure, there was the imaginary condition created by you- if the Leafs had lost their last game. As I pointed out, they didn't. That closed the case.

What are you on about? I was just pointing out that it's absurd to brag about being in a playoff spot when it was a day to day thing. If the season ended a few days earlier we would have been out.
 
What are you on about? I was just pointing out that it's absurd to brag about being in a playoff spot when it was a day to day thing. If the season ended a few days earlier we would have been out.
I am on about exactly what I said. The Leafs did win their last game so at the conclusion of the season they were in a playoff sport regardless of any imaginary conditions. However, you are right the playoff position being not set in stone, and could possibly have changed if the season ran its course- it also could have become solidified. The season ended when it did.
 
Yeah the goaltending is definitely THE question mark, other than that this team looks to be completely stacked. It's a pretty big question mark though and super important considering how important goaltending is in the playoffs so still makes me a bit nervous to think about it. At least we have Campbell, hopefully he can step in if needed.
On paper Toronto is a lot better from the start of a new season with Andersen and Campbell being the #1 and #2 Goalies, compared to Andersen and Sparks or Andersen and Hutchinson in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 Seasons.
 
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I am on about exactly what I said. The Leafs did win their last game so at the conclusion of the season they were in a playoff sport regardless of any imaginary conditions. However, you are right the playoff position being not set in stone, and could possibly have changed if the season ran its course- it also could have become solidified. The season ended when it did.

I'm pretty sure nobody has disputed where they finished so ...

On paper Toronto is a lot better from the start of a new season with Andersen and Campbell being the #1 and #2 Goalies, compared to Andersen and Sparks or Andersen and Hutchinson in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 Seasons.

Yeah but I'd say that Andersen's stock has gone down somewhat so whether were better in goal or not isn't clear to me. But yeah having Campbell is huge, it's not out of the question that he has the #1 job by the time the playoffs start. There's always the possibility of making a trade if we really need to so ... we'll see.
 
Yeah but I'd say that Andersen's stock has gone down somewhat so whether were better in goal or not isn't clear to me. But yeah having Campbell is huge, it's not out of the question that he has the #1 job by the time the playoffs start. There's always the possibility of making a trade if we really need to so ... we'll see.
With the soft goals Andersen allowed in Game 1 and Game 5 against Columbus, it's completely fair to say he's stock has gone down somewhat because he has a history of allowing bad goals in playoff games.
 
With the soft goals Andersen allowed in Game 1 and Game 5 against Columbus, it's completely fair to say he's stock has gone down somewhat because he has a history of allowing bad goals in playoff games.
We also let in the first shot of the game 7 times in 70 games last year or 10% of our games. I think Freddy had 5 of those. That absolutely cannot happen, our goalies need to be ready to play.
 
We also let in the first shot of the game 7 times in 70 games last year or 10% of our games. I think Freddy had 5 of those. That absolutely cannot happen, our goalies need to be ready to play.
From the games I remember when that happened Andersen did that in their 1st game against Ottawa when Brady Tkachuk scored 25 seconds into the 1st period.

It also happened in their 3rd game against Montreal when Max Domi scored 1:08 into the 1st period.
 
We also let in the first shot of the game 7 times in 70 games last year or 10% of our games. I think Freddy had 5 of those. That absolutely cannot happen, our goalies need to be ready to play.

Absolutely can not happen? How often do NHL goalies get a 52 shot shutout?

Let's take each 1st shot of the game against Andersen in 2019-20: 5 goals in 52 games. (52 shots - 5 goals)/52 shots = 0.904. Weird that's really close to a typical save percentage. If by some chance he had stopped one of those 5, it would have been 4 goals in 52 games, it would be .923. It's almost like there's nothing particularly unusual about the rate of 1st shot goals after all and this is a fake concern.
 
Absolutely can not happen? How often do NHL goalies get a 52 shot shutout?

Let's take each 1st shot of the game against Andersen in 2019-20: 5 goals in 52 games. (52 shots - 5 goals)/52 shots = 0.904. Weird that's really close to a typical save percentage. If by some chance he had stopped one of those 5, it would have been 4 goals in 52 games, it would be .923. It's almost like there's nothing particularly unusual about the rate of 1st shot goals after all and this is a fake concern.
When a couple of them are wrist shots from the blueline with zero traffic then it is a concern. Quality of the shot comes into play as well.
 
So did you think Hunter was correct when he selected Egor Korshkov with the 31st pick of the 2nd round in 2016? At that time in the draft he was an off the board selection, plus he was undrafted in 2014 and 2015, when other obvious choices like Alex DeBrincat and Carter Hart were still available. Plus in that 2nd round Toronto had selected first and Hunter could have selected anyone he wanted.
Not at all. I wasn't a fan of Hunter nor how he drafted either. No team drafts perfectly, vast majority of them are made up of big hits and misses, but all I was saying it that I'm not crazy about Dubas' drafts for a variety of reasons, of which I only brought up two of 'em. Never stated I like Hunter's, Lou's, Nonis', Burke's, and etc any better or worse.
 
When it comes to Dubas negotiations with Matthews, Marner, and Nylander here is how I see it.

He should have done better to get Matthews to sign for 8 years, because his $11.634 million AAV is more reasonable at 8 years instead of 5 years.

Marner should not be making over $10.893, so something around $8 - $9 million would have been better.

Nylander I think was a fair contract for both sides.
- About the only things I dislike about Nylander's deal is that it wasn't an 8 year contract, and that Nylander took so long to sign it.
- Matthews got three years less term, and about $1 million AAV more than I would've liked.
- Marner's the worst of the 3 IMO, but Dubas gave in and gave him $2.5 million more on AAV than Marner deserved, and 6 years for a hometown boy is just sad. Then, again Tavares is another hometown boy who wanted to win the cup at home, and yet he along with Matthews is the highest paid player in the League after taxes (due to the signing bonuses, and living in the States when the bonuses are paid). I always get a chuckle when people say he "took less money". In terms of AAV yeah, but in terms of actual dollars, no he did not accept less.
 
When were the Leafs "completely decimated" by injury?

Here's what the injuries looked like last year game to game. (I ignored 4th liners, backups, and extra players).

Screenshot_20210111-141312_Sheets.jpg
 
On paper Toronto is a lot better from the start of a new season with Andersen and Campbell being the #1 and #2 Goalies, compared to Andersen and Sparks or Andersen and Hutchinson in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 Seasons.

Not to mention last years career worst.909 sv% for Andy is extremely unlikely to be duplicated. He had an off year just like Marner, Tavares and Rielly. They will all be at least a little better. Its up to Keefe to see if the club can be a lot better. I like the odds.
 
Here's what the injuries looked like last year game to game. (I ignored 4th liners, backups, and extra players).

View attachment 383319
Great graph; thanks for showing it. It does prove my point. Never were 2 of the big 4 ( AM, JT, MM and WN) out at the same time. AM played every game. On defense the Leafs did have Rielly and Muzzin out for a total of 7 total games which was tough but they still had Anderson and the big 4. Difficult time yes but "completely decimated"???? Not at all.
 
Uhh.. did you miss like the whole 2nd half of the season?
Why not check out Zeke's post(#666) with his graph on Leaf injuries last year and you will see what I dispute your opinion. In the 2nd half of the season AM, JT, MM and WN collectively missed a total of 2 games. wow that's really decimated!
 
Great graph; thanks for showing it. It does prove my point. Never were 2 of the big 4 ( AM, JT, MM and WN) out at the same time. AM played every game. On defense the Leafs did have Rielly and Muzzin out for a total of 7 total games which was tough but they still had Anderson and the big 4. Difficult time yes but "completely decimated"???? Not at all.

Remove McAvoy and Carlo from Boston's current defense. Marchand, Pastrnak, Bergeron, Krejci, Rask all healthy.

How well do you think a defense of:

Lauzon-Grezelyck
Zboril-Miller
whoever

will do?
 
I wonder what Kyle’s reaction is to tonight’s no show vs Ottawa? He made a point to talk about the cultural problem within the room about not having assertive personalities in the offseason. He add a lot of ingredients but the team is behaving exactly the way it did in the past. Play tentative and disinterested, get blown out.
 
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