Kopitar; For or Against a trade if it comes to it?

[SettlementRichie10]

The GM's will push for Five, but probably settle on Six years, just like an NFL model. The next CBA is going to be a war again. Having players locked up to big cap dollars until ages 34/35, is just salary cap suicide.

If you recall, the initial CBA offer from the BOG included 5 year contracts. The PA said no, and the BOG didn't want to die on that hill, so they comprised up to 8.

But with the salary cap more or less stagnant, teams are feeling these long term contracts a lot more than they used to. I think 5 year contracts will be a hill they will very much die on this time around.

And the PA will fight it tooth and nail, because five years contracts means no more back diving circumventions, which means fewer dollars in the players' pockets. Gonna be a war.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

It means you should proceed with caution. when you are going to pay a player for past accomplishment; when the back half of his contract happens when the player is on the wrong side of 30 years of age.

I'm all for Kopitar on a low cap hit, but I take umbrage with dismissing paying a player for past accomplishments. This is often touted by the same people who say, "don't pay a player for potential." So when exactly are you paying the player? Never? This kind of thinking is exactly why unions exist in the first place.

Hockey players are employees of their franchises. In the real world, an employee is paid appropriately for what they accomplish for their company. Kopitar has accomplished a lot for the Kings. Does he not deserve compensation?

Some of the same people in this thread worried to tears about Kopitar's next cap hit had a carte blanche attitude when it was time to re-sign Dustin Brown. "Brown earned this contract" they said. Well, if ****ing Dustin Brown earned his contract, then so does Kopitar.

At the end of the day there are few other options. You trade Kopitar, you're entering a rebuild. It's as simple as that. Keep Carter, Doughty, and the kids, and really make a concerted 2-3 year effort in restocking the franchise. Trading Kopitar at this point is tantamount to throwing in the towel at the possibility of a third championship. It's really that simple. You're not going to replace your first line center. The Kings last true first line center before Kopitar was Gretzky. Think about how long that gap was. These kinds of players don't grow on trees. And pretending that playing hardball is the shrewd move here is pointless bravado. Everyone involved - Kopitar, Dean, and Brisson - understand how much Kopitar means to the Kings.

 

[TopT]

Taking preseason games so seriously.

Well if we win the cup and Kopi is again top scorer the thread will be "but he sucked in preseason"

 

[KingsFan7824]

Brown got his contract. Quick got his contract. Doughty got his, although that was before the winning. There's no reason to think Kopitar won't get his big contract as well. It's not like he's got somewhere else to go specifically, like Parise or Suter. You don't sign all these other guys just to let Kopitar go. No GM does that willingly. Lombardi, Mr. Loyalty, isn't going to be the first.

They have more than enough space to fit any raise for Kopitar under the cap. It'll probably come at the cost of someone else, but that's just how it works. Kopitar has his Cups. Money is far more guaranteed than another Cup, no matter how much of a discount Kopitar could take to help the franchise. Next year we most likely see even more young guys in the lineup. You can't escape it. Accept it now, since it's easier than when the contract gets signed, because Kopitar will get paid, by the Kings, for better or worse.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I'm all for Kopitar on a low cap hit, but I take umbrage with dismissing paying a player for past accomplishments. This is often touted by the same people who say, "don't pay a player for potential." So when exactly are you paying the player? Never? This kind of thinking is exactly why unions exist in the first place.

Hockey players are employees of their franchises. In the real world, an employee is paid appropriately for what they accomplish for their company. Kopitar has accomplished a lot for the Kings. Does he not deserve compensation?

Some of the same people in this thread worried to tears about Kopitar's next cap hit had a carte blanche attitude when it was time to re-sign Dustin Brown. "Brown earned this contract" they said. Well, if ****ing Dustin Brown earned his contract, then so does Kopitar.

At the end of the day there are few other options. You trade Kopitar, you're entering a rebuild. It's as simple as that. Keep Carter, Doughty, and the kids, and really make a concerted 2-3 year effort in restocking the franchise. Trading Kopitar at this point is tantamount to throwing in the towel at the possibility of a third championship. It's really that simple. You're not going to replace your first line center. The Kings last true first line center before Kopitar was Gretzky. Think about how long that gap was. These kinds of players don't grow on trees. And pretending that playing hardball is the shrewd move here is pointless bravado. Everyone involved - Kopitar, Dean, and Brisson - understand how much Kopitar means to the Kings.

Well said.

A guy getting signed before his UFA years gets a risky potential contract; a guy signing them after his accomplishments is in decline. There's gotta be a middle in there somewhere, but Kopitar is the franchise face of the last near decade. We're just lucky it's Brisson rather than like Meehan, not looking forward to Doughty's almost-inevitable holdout for 10m.

Ultimately it's not Kopitar's contract I'm worried about, it's all the depth players. If affording Kopitar means you can't afford Martinez, it doesn't mean either contract is bad, it's just a luxury you can no longer afford because your vets have been successful. Unless you're drafting #1 year after year, you're not replacing that; and even so, look how many swings EDM has had at that.

 

[LAKings88]

It's why drafting is so important in the cap era. Kopi will get signed and Martinez or another player will get moved. Youth will come in on the cheap for a couple of years.

 

[Fishhead]

Damn, Pearson lower then I woulda thought. I'm far to lazy to look up data, but would be curious to know how much PP time he got, and how many PP goals he sank.

I know he is not really one of our shooters, but I am big on the kid, and refuse to let you guys ignore that he went out last season as one of our highest scorers. Granted he had a hot streak to start (I know... always the first reply I get to that comment), but kid scores goals.

I don't pay enough attention to shorthanded or whatever, but interesting to see Toff and Carter mid pack. Interesting to see the guys leading are not necessarily the ones who put up quality shots (Muzzin, Drew)

Granted, it explicit says shots per minute... but are these actually shot attempts a la corsi, or recorded shots on goal?




His shots per minute were incredibly worrisome this offseason.

They are just recorded shots on goal, the ones that get through.

The stats at hockey analysis differ slightly from those an NHL.com, but for comparison here is icorsi/60 - a measurement of everything thrown towards the net on the PP:

(50+ minutes of pp time)

Martinez - 29.07
Muzzin - 27.66
Doughty - 26.27
McNabb - 21.33
Williams - 20.73
Carter - 20.27
Sekera - 20.06
Gaborik - 18.67
Toffoli - 17.74
Richards - 15.38
Brown - 13.66
Kopitar - 13.33
Pearson - 12.80
Stoll - 10.43


Pretty poor for the forward that has the 2nd most PP ice time. It also demonstrates why Brown was ineffective too. Pearson only had 63 pp minutes in his 42 games, so he was mostly seeing duty as it was winding down. It would definitely suppress his shot totals.


iCorsi for all situations shows Kopitar as #18 on the team, right above Nick Shore and Jordan Nolan, and right below King. Yes, Dwight King puts more shots on net per minute than Kopitar.


I don't think Kopitar is declining at all, I just think he's not shooting. Despite these ridiculous numbers he was still 3rd on the team in points per 60. If he threw as many shots at the net as Carter, he would be a ppg player.

It also may indicate that the demise of Brown is exaggerated, and if he is more aggressive with taking pucks to the net and shooting, his numbers should also increase.

 

[Kurrilino]

Taking preseason games so seriously.

I don't take them serious at all.
He could have 100 preseason games without any points.

What concernes me is that we see the same behavior that made him stall last season.

Invisible, not able to take over and very uninterested whats going on on the ice.
Like i said last season, from looking at him play you couldn't say the score is 5-1 or 1-1

 

[KINGS17]

Well said.

A guy getting signed before his UFA years gets a risky potential contract; a guy signing them after his accomplishments is in decline. There's gotta be a middle in there somewhere, but Kopitar is the franchise face of the last near decade. We're just lucky it's Brisson rather than like Meehan, not looking forward to Doughty's almost-inevitable holdout for 10m.

Ultimately it's not Kopitar's contract I'm worried about, it's all the depth players. If affording Kopitar means you can't afford Martinez, it doesn't mean either contract is bad, it's just a luxury you can no longer afford because your vets have been successful. Unless you're drafting #1 year after year, you're not replacing that; and even so, look how many swings EDM has had at that.

Kopitar got PAID on his 2nd contract. There was no hometown discount. Dean went out on a limb and paid for future performacne. Let's not pretend that Kopitar didn't get compensated very well for what he has already done.

You should be worried about Kopitar's contract if it prevents Dean from surrounding him with a supporting cast that can win championships, especially when Kopitar can no longer deliver at the box office as the leading man.

There is absolutely no reason based on the data and evidence in his own play to give him an 8-year deal worth $72M+. It's just bad business.

 

[theMajor]

Well said.

A guy getting signed before his UFA years gets a risky potential contract; a guy signing them after his accomplishments is in decline. There's gotta be a middle in there somewhere, but Kopitar is the franchise face of the last near decade. We're just lucky it's Brisson rather than like Meehan, not looking forward to Doughty's almost-inevitable holdout for 10m.

Ultimately it's not Kopitar's contract I'm worried about, it's all the depth players. If affording Kopitar means you can't afford Martinez, it doesn't mean either contract is bad, it's just a luxury you can no longer afford because your vets have been successful. Unless you're drafting #1 year after year, you're not replacing that; and even so, look how many swings EDM has had at that.

you absolutely nailed it with the bolded bit. I honestly think most anti-Kopitar Kings fans arent taking into account that we dont win 2 cups without Kopitar. hes played such an immeasurably important role during his time with the Kings. its senseless to bicker about a 1 million dollar difference in opinion when it comes to what he should be paid.... its not like I, or other Kopitar fans are advocating that he make 15 million a year. he's a top 3 center in this league. pay him like one or enjoy a rebuild/re-tool for the next 3 years. with that being said, Im not against waiting it out a few months first to see how he rebounds.

 

[KINGS17]

you absolutely nailed it with the bolded bit. I honestly think most anti-Kopitar Kings fans arent taking into account that we dont win 2 cups without Kopitar. hes played such an immeasurably important role during his time with the Kings. its senseless to bicker about a 1 million dollar difference in opinion when it comes to what he should be paid.... its not like I, or other Kopitar fans are advocating that he make 15 million a year. he's a top 3 center in this league. pay him like one or enjoy a rebuild/re-tool for the next 3 years. with that being said, Im not against waiting it out a few months first to see how he rebounds.

No, I think most pro-Kopitar crazy contract advocates aren't taking into account that Kopitar already got paid, and paid well for his performance in those two cup runs.

I don't think it's a million dollar difference, especially when you consider the term, when Dean Lombardi says the two sides aren't even in the same ballpark.

Sorry, but based on last season's performance, Kopitar is NOT a top 3 center in the NHL. That's why it's perfectly acceptable to see how he starts off this season before committing to a big money, long term deal with him. At least we agree on that part.

 

[theMajor]

so one bad season negates what could (arguably should) have been two Conn Smythe's and a Selke or two? ok

just for ***** and giggles, can you name the top 5 centers in the league?

 

[gnarls barkley]

Kopitar got PAID on his 2nd contract. There was no hometown discount. Dean went out on a limb and paid for future performacne. Let's not pretend that Kopitar didn't get compensated very well for what he has already done.

You should be worried about Kopitar's contract if it prevents Dean from surrounding him with a supporting cast that can win championships, especially when Kopitar can no longer deliver at the box office as the leading man.

There is absolutely no reason based on the data and evidence in his own play to give him an 8-year deal worth $72M+. It's just bad business.

we already have the supporting cast, the only guys pricing themselves out of a contract here will be the guys who can be replaced by cheap younger talent. The only other contracts to be worried about in the next couple years are Pearson, Toffoli, and potentially McNabb if he turns into a legit 2nd pair D. That's it. Lewis and King will either re-sign for a team-friendly amount, or leave for a bigger payday. The chances of resigning Lucic are slim to none regardless, and the only other relative worry down the road is re-upping Doughty, at which point we're in a completely different era anyways.

the core is still intact - Carter, Doughty, Muzzin, Quick, Gaborik, and arguably AMart and Brown are all locked up for a long time. The only other guys that absolutely NEED to be resigned are Kopitar and Toffoli. This pre-season alone should tell you that we have more than enough hungry young talent coming up from Ontario to take over our bottom 6 if our current guys price themselves out.

 

[Reclamation Project]

so one bad season negates what could (arguably should) have been two Conn Smythe's and a Selke or two? ok

just for ***** and giggles, can you name the top 5 centers in the league?

Toews.
Toews.
Toews.
Toews.
Toews.

 

[gnarls barkley]

Toews.
Toews.
Toews.
Toews.
Toews.

way to snub Toews, why are you such a hater?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Kopitar got PAID on his 2nd contract. There was no hometown discount. Dean went out on a limb and paid for future performacne. Let's not pretend that Kopitar didn't get compensated very well for what he has already done.

You should be worried about Kopitar's contract if it prevents Dean from surrounding him with a supporting cast that can win championships, especially when Kopitar can no longer deliver at the box office as the leading man.

There is absolutely no reason based on the data and evidence in his own play to give him an 8-year deal worth $72M+. It's just bad business.

He got compensated very well, but when your contract is in the ballpark of guys like Mikko Koivu...it was an easily- and well-calculated risk. I never said it started as a hometown discount, just that it became one a year into the contract, and is a bargain obviously on the back end. Point is, you get a #1 center, you pay them, especially when they're a top center in the game.

Do I want Kopitar to sign an 8-8.5 million dollar deal? Absolutely. Do I think that's going to happen? Probably not. I'm willing to budge a million here and there to keep Kopitar around, and that million shouldn't be the difference between a contender and a pretender, my point is if it is, there are other contracts that are problematic, not Kopitars.

Remember, I'm mostly with you here, I just am trying to deal with the idea that Kopitar's camp has all the leverage--but that knowing what we know of his character, that he's not going to try to absolutely break us.

 

[Reclamation Project]

way to snub Toews, why are you such a hater?

Pardon my ignorance, I'm an LA Kings fan. I'm only here for the fights and touchdowns.

 

[KINGS17]

Toews.
Tavares.
Toews.
Crosby.
Toews.
Malkin.
Toews.

That's in no particular order.

Kopitar is more in a class with Getzalaf and Bergeron, and Getzlaf outperformed Kopitar by a significant margin last season.

Then you have young guys like McKinnon, Johansen, etc. that are gaining ground on Kopitar.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That's in no particular order.

Kopitar is more in a class with Getzalaf and Bergeron, and Getzlaf outperformed Kopitar by a significant margin last season.

Then you have young guys like McKinnon, Johansen, etc. that are gaining ground on Kopitar.

In 2012, Getzlaf had a 57 point, -11 season. Full 82 games too. Just food for thought.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That's in no particular order.

Kopitar is more in a class with Getzalaf and Bergeron, and Getzlaf outperformed Kopitar by a significant margin last season.

Then you have young guys like McKinnon, Johansen, etc. that are gaining ground on Kopitar.

MacKinnon could and should but he hasn't done anything but look exciting yet.

Johansen you have a better idea on, and is surrounded by a very good team now, as well. But he's still goofy defensively so those offensive numbers are meh. Never mind his inflated self-opinion, that's gonna be a fun contract negotiation.

Then you have guys that are supposed to gain ground but are kinda stuck in neutral, like Barkov, and players that are dissimilar like Nugent-Hopkins, yet many of these guys are 4-5 years away from being flat out better than Kopi.

 

[Reclamation Project]

Kopitar is better than Getzlaf. Not to mention he isn't mentally fragile like Getzlaf.

 

[KINGS17]

In 2012, Getzlaf had a 57 point, -11 season. Full 82 games too. Just food for thought.

I know and the Ducks didn't sign him to his current deal until he came out like gangbusters the following season, and he has performed well ever since.

Hoping to repeat the process with Kopitar, but I wouldn't give it to him until he proves he is worth it.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I know and the Ducks didn't sign him to his current deal until he came out like gangbusters the following season, and he has performed well ever since.

Hoping to repeat the process with Kopitar, but I wouldn't give it to him until he proves he is worth it.

For sure, just pointing out that even Getzlaf (and other top-10 centers) isn't infallible, and Kopitar's 'worst' season since his rookie year is still better than many (all?) of the other top-10 centers worst years due to health and relative consistency.

 

[KINGS17]

For sure, just pointing out that even Getzlaf (and other top-10 centers) isn't infallible, and Kopitar's 'worst' season since his rookie year is still better than many (all?) of the other top-10 centers worst years due to health and relative consistency.

I completely understand and accept that this happens. One of the things that I really don't understand from some posters is the idea that it would be an insult to Kopitar if Dean expects him to play his ass off to earn a new mega deal.

As damacles has said, the player that most often stops Anze Kopitar, is Anze Kopitar.

 

[gnarls barkley]

I completely understand and accept that this happens. One of the things that I really don't understand from some posters is the idea that it would be an insult to Kopitar if Dean expects him to play his ass off to earn a new mega deal.

As damacles has said, the player that most often stops Anze Kopitar, is Anze Kopitar.

and so you think the right thing to do is squabble over his payday to wait until he earns it again, instead of justly giving him his due and believing that he'll personally hold himself to playing at the standards expected by a big contract? Yeah, that mentality bit us in the ass with Richards before, but Kopitar ain't Richards, and I don't believe that he fades out or loses his "will" to perform at those levels.