Post-Game Talk: JUMP TO THE PUMP: Jets have gas in 5-2 win over Sabres

[GeorgeJETson]

Just a bunch of nerds and dinosaurs, cheering on a bunch of frauds.

I had such little faith in this back to backer that I went shopping with the wife for the Canes and went to Dune for the Sabres. I'll be in the barn Tuesday though.

 

[White Out 902]

i had this team written off in january. im so glad to be eating crow

 

[LucianoBorsato]

Just a bunch of nerds and dinosaurs, cheering on a bunch of frauds.

I had such little faith in this back to backer that I went shopping with the wife for the Canes and went to Dune for the Sabres. I'll be in the barn Tuesday though.

How was Dune part 2?

 

[Flair Hay]

Kyle Connor should get less than 20 minutes per game, ideally somewhere around 18 minutes per game. I added two games that were a hair above the 19 minute mark, but here's how he performed in those games:

View attachment 829010

Here's how he performed - playing with PLD and mostly Svechnikov - in his best individual year (2021-2022); less than 20 minutes per contest:

View attachment 829012

And last season (2022-23), Connor registed 19 goals, 25 assists in the 35 games when he played less than 20 minutes per. He only scored 31 goals total last year!

Conversely, here's Nik Ehlers this year when he played more than 18 minutes a game:

View attachment 829015

And last year:

View attachment 829017

Ehlers highest "Average Time on Ice" was in 2021-22, at 18:04 per. Here's how he performed in games where he played less than 18 minutes per game:

View attachment 829018

He's greater playing reduced minutes, and KFC should (ideally) get scaled back too.

I pointed this out last week (or so), but here's the Dallas Stars:

View attachment 829019

That's 4 guys who are averaging 16 minutes per game, and none of them has fewer than 18 goals, and only Jason Robertson has taken +170 shots; and he averages the most minutes amongst the forwards of course.

Our forwards by comparison (excluding Sunday's game):

View attachment 829020

This is a really great post. Not sure if this changes or not over the past 4-5 seasons as a whole. But it does lend credence to the theory of 3rd line TOI for Ehlers to an extent.

 

[TS Quint]

It's weird that Perfetti of all players has become the most polarizing.

To be fair, he’s been dog shit for two months. You will always get opinions that range from what have you done for me lately to regurgitating his draft day profile.

 

[Jet]

It's weird that Perfetti of all players has become the most polarizing.

Haha he has some work to go to usurp Connor or Ehlers.

 

[DRW204]

Barron averages 8.8 min 5v5 toi/gp. Of players with similar 5v5 toi/gp or less as Barron, using his TOI per gp x +10% as a benchmark... There's 140 players:

Barron has the most goals, and 4th in 5v5 goals/60 (5th on the team). Only has 3 assists, how can you have a ton playing with David G, Kupari.... It's not like he's been a top 6er with scheifele, connor, Ehlers ha ha haa....

Anyway, this is legitimately with 80% of his TOI with 3rd line worse.

Iafallo goes 20 and 18 games of no goals - hey no biggie! Cowabunga surfer dude! Here's top 6 and pp time!

Well gee Iawfullo works hard.... Well f*** I hope so? What else he doing? Unless your kc defensively everyone on this team has been putting up in work and working hard.

Barron works just hard, probably harder saddled with AHL tweeners. Adds an element of speed and size too along with some scoring. Ppl talk about adding ANOTHER top 6er, hb let's see what our own guy has over the super non-productive one? 20, 18 goalless droughts but hey let's make sure to shit on guys like Perfetti instead.

#FreeBarron

 

[Jet]

This is a really great post. Not sure if this changes or not over the past 4-5 seasons as a whole. But it does lend credence to the theory of 3rd line TOI for Ehlers to an extent.

It's funny because instead of us forever debating ehlers getting more ice time, maybe we should be talking about Scheifele and Connor getting less.

Both of those guys are more effective when they have more gas in the tank.

We actually have the forward group now to distribute ice time more equally.
Ofc game situation will have an impact but playing the lines something like 17 16 15 12 could really benefit the team heading down the stretch and into the playoffs

 

[kanadalainen]

One quick trip update:

Corvette museum at Bowling Green, KY. I have a weakness for automotive trinkets, and its not rational or logical, but there it is.

 

[The Big M]

We've just had two amazing back to back come from behind wins and we're discussing Ehlers issues.

Negative ninnies freak off already.

 

[Jet]

Barron averages 8.8 min 5v5 toi/gp. Of players with similar 5v5 toi/gp or less as Barron, using his TOI per gp x +10% as a benchmark... There's 140 players:

Barron has the most goals, and 4th in 5v5 goals/60 (5th on the team). Only has 3 assists, how can you have a ton playing with David G, Kupari.... It's not like he's been a top 6er with scheifele, connor, Ehelrs ha ha haa....

Anyway, this is legitimately with 80% of his TOI with 3rd line worse.

Iafallo goes 20 and 18 games of no goals - hey no biggie! Cowabunga surfer dude! Here's top 6 and pp time!

Well gee iafwullo orks hard.... Well f*** I hope so? What else be doing? Unless your kc defensively everyone on this team has been putting up in work and working hard. Barron works just hard, probably harder saddled with AHL tweeners. Adds an element of speed and size too along with some scoring. PPL talk about adding ANOTHER top 6er, hb let's see what our own guy has over the super non-productive one?

#FreeBarron

Scoring isn't everything.

Id be all for giving Barron a shot in the top 6, I've always liked his game. Iafallo is not an offensive player, really. He is producing lower than expected this year though.

I do think he provides a stabilizing effect to the top 6 when he's there, we seem to get hemmed less. Probably because he does the digging and makes smart plays to get the puck out.

I don't think Barron does that as well which is why he's not the choice. Also, he's the driver of the 4th line so if you take him off there they are a lot less effective.

For me, 68 or 7 are the guys who should be in the top 6 when needed. They have the skill and smarts to hang.

I really don't know how I feel about picking up another top 6 forward. Do we need it? Is it with the cost?

I'd rather try and find a RHD .

 

[Boreal]

Money Hands really has been nice. Great value pick-up. Probably need to lock him up for the next 3-4 seasons.

 

[Jet]

Money Hands really has been nice. Great value pick-up. Probably need to lock him up for the next 3-4 seasons.

He'd be a nice bridge guy to get us into Perfetti, Lambert, Chibby, McGroarty starting to be integrated.

I'd personally want to get him on a 2 year deal but at his age I'm betting he's looking for a minimum 5 year deal, especially since his health issues stunted his earning.

I just don't think the Jets are the team to sign him. I see him going to a young team that needs some veteran presence - maybe even back to the Habs.

 

[ps241]

Also, wtf, why are the Sabres so bad? Dahlin looked awful for a #1 D, and I barely heard Power’s name

Also Thompson is riding a really cold season for shooting % which is killing them too. He had back to back seasons shooing 15% and he is down around 9% this season so he has lost close to 40% of his goal totals and he has always been a black hole defensively. Last year Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, and Dahlin were all on fire at PP or better levels with Couzins and Mittlestat providing excellant secondary scoring. This season Casey has improved and the rest of the group are way off last years torrid pace. Keep in mind even with that scoring last season the Sabers were so leaky, had poor goaltending, and they missed the playoffs.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Someone needs to get Bones in a room, show him all of the numbers of the combinations of Scheifele/Ehlers and Scheifele/Connor and just repeatedly hammer him with 'why do you want to play the combination that has far inferior numbers across the board?'

Bones has done a lot of good for this organization but he clearly has a blindspot here and it is going to be very costly. Having a first line that can't outscore or outchance the opponent makes it very very hard to go on a lengthy cup run.

 

[Jet]

Also, wtf, why are the Sabres so bad? Dahlin looked awful for a #1 D, and I barely heard Power’s name

Its hard to grow when all the players are young and there's few vet mentors on the team.

I actually thought Dahlin was pretty decent - he's a very strong kid. Then that empty net play was just god awful.

 

[Jet]

They saved all their scoring for the 3rd periods but they played well start to finish both games.

Yup. Besides lulls in both games (hint: teams rarely dominate the entire game) I thought the Jets deserved to win both.

Still a ways to go to get to 'pack of wolves' but the team is heading in the right direction.

As an aside, it's so nice to be able to go down a top 6 forward and not have the feeling we won't score.

 

[bustamente]

Its hard to grow when all the players are young and there's few vet mentors on the team.

I actually thought Dahlin was pretty decent - he's a very strong kid. Then that empty net play was just god awful.

I also thought that Dahlin was very good, Power on the other hand has a lot of work to do. I see a new HC in their future

 

[ps241]

Happens all the the time in the real world and the hockey world is getting more prone to inefficiency because coaches don't know how to handle the information load as well.

Inefficient Markets and Behavioural Finance
In his book “Misbehaving,” the 2017 Nobel Prize winner and champion of behavioral economics, Professor Richard H. Thaler, suggests that humans are prone to error; they are occasionally irrational. And even worse, they are behavioral biased. Therefore, a market cannot always be efficient.

Totally agree humans have behavioral bias and are prone to error.

What I would suggest:

Jets HFBoards poster bias flaws >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Bones and co bias flaws.

No board can handle losses and I get it, many struggle to handle winz too which is a bit bizarre and OCD”ish”

I guess it’s all part of the fantasy GM hobby

 

[scelaton]

He'd be a nice bridge guy to get us into Perfetti, Lambert, Chibby, McGroarty starting to be integrated.

I'd personally want to get him on a 2 year deal but at his age I'm betting he's looking for a minimum 5 year deal, especially since his health issues stunted his earning.

I just don't think the Jets are the team to sign him. I see him going to a young team that needs some veteran presence - maybe even back to the Habs.

Yeah, it will all come down to cost and Monahan's expectations. OTIH, we shouldn't minimize the impact of a great playing environment and team success on his decision.

For now, we should be very happy we have traded away an unhappy 2C, costing $8.5M and scoring at a 30-40 point pace, and replaced him with a "beloved" (see article below) 2C scoring at a 60 point pace, costing < $2M.

Thought the article below was interesting, as it lists Monahan's injuries/surgeries by season--wrist, herniated discs, both hips. He is described as a warrior for his team and beloved in the dressing room.

Breaking down Sean Monahan's injury history and what happens next - The Win Column

The Calgary Flames have officially shutdown Sean Monahan for the 2021–22 season as he goes in for hip surgery and subsequent rehabilitation in advance of next year. This is not his first surgery, having not played a complete season since 2016–17 campaign. These injuries have clearly taken a toll...

thewincolumn.ca

 

[surixon]

Kyle Connor should get less than 20 minutes per game, ideally somewhere around 18 minutes per game. I added two games that were a hair above the 19 minute mark, but here's how he performed in those games:

View attachment 829010

Here's how he performed - playing with PLD and mostly Svechnikov - in his best individual year (2021-2022); less than 20 minutes per contest:

View attachment 829012

And last season (2022-23), Connor registed 19 goals, 25 assists in the 35 games when he played less than 20 minutes per. He only scored 31 goals total last year!

Conversely, here's Nik Ehlers this year when he played more than 18 minutes a game:

View attachment 829015

And last year:

View attachment 829017

Ehlers highest "Average Time on Ice" was in 2021-22, at 18:04 per. Here's how he performed in games where he played less than 18 minutes per game:

View attachment 829018

He's greater playing reduced minutes, and KFC should (ideally) get scaled back too.

I pointed this out last week (or so), but here's the Dallas Stars:

View attachment 829019

That's 4 guys who are averaging 16 minutes per game, and none of them has fewer than 18 goals, and only Jason Robertson has taken +170 shots; and he averages the most minutes amongst the forwards of course.

Our forwards by comparison (excluding Sunday's game):

View attachment 829020

I fully agree. I think the sweet spot is in around the 17 minute mark for skilled players. The top teams tend to deploy them in that range.

He'd be a nice bridge guy to get us into Perfetti, Lambert, Chibby, McGroarty starting to be integrated.

I'd personally want to get him on a 2 year deal but at his age I'm betting he's looking for a minimum 5 year deal, especially since his health issues stunted his earning.

I just don't think the Jets are the team to sign him. I see him going to a young team that needs some veteran presence - maybe even back to the Habs.

Yeah I'm not sure what they do with him. He's been great for us but as you mentioned he's going to want term on his next deal and imo some team will give it to him.

Not sure we can afford it.

 

[surixon]

Scoring isn't everything.

Id be all for giving Barron a shot in the top 6, I've always liked his game. Iafallo is not an offensive player, really. He is producing lower than expected this year though.

I do think he provides a stabilizing effect to the top 6 when he's there, we seem to get hemmed less. Probably because he does the digging and makes smart plays to get the puck out.

I don't think Barron does that as well which is why he's not the choice. Also, he's the driver of the 4th line so if you take him off there they are a lot less effective.

For me, 68 or 7 are the guys who should be in the top 6 when needed. They have the skill and smarts to hang.

I really don't know how I feel about picking up another top 6 forward. Do we need it? Is it with the cost?

I'd rather try and find a RHD .

Who is 68?

 

[WolfHouse]

Barron averages 8.8 min 5v5 toi/gp. Of players with similar 5v5 toi/gp or less as Barron, using his TOI per gp x +10% as a benchmark... There's 140 players:

Barron has the most goals, and 4th in 5v5 goals/60 (5th on the team). Only has 3 assists, how can you have a ton playing with David G, Kupari.... It's not like he's been a top 6er with scheifele, connor, Ehlers ha ha haa....

Anyway, this is legitimately with 80% of his TOI with 3rd line worse.

Iafallo goes 20 and 18 games of no goals - hey no biggie! Cowabunga surfer dude! Here's top 6 and pp time!

Well gee Iawfullo works hard.... Well f*** I hope so? What else he doing? Unless your kc defensively everyone on this team has been putting up in work and working hard.

Barron works just hard, probably harder saddled with AHL tweeners. Adds an element of speed and size too along with some scoring. Ppl talk about adding ANOTHER top 6er, hb let's see what our own guy has over the super non-productive one? 20, 18 goalless droughts but hey let's make sure to shit on guys like Perfetti instead.

#FreeBarron

I want to see Barron-Gus-Perfetti for a few more games... been cheering for Barron to get on 2nd line but maybe we end up with a 'scoring' fourth line

Who is 68?

Jagr

 

[scelaton]

Totally agree humans have behavioral bias and are prone to error.
What I would suggest:
Jets HFBoards poster bias flaws >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Bones and co bias flaws.
No board can handle losses and I get it, many struggle to handle winz too which is a bit bizarre and OCD”ish”
I guess it’s all part of the fantasy GM h

Yes to the bolded, but the biggest struggle here seems to be handling conflicting points of view. Fans come in different shapes and sizes--some glass full, some glass empty; some analytical, some emotional; but almost always stuck to their POV. It's just like the real world...which I guess explains a lot about the real world.

 

[WolfHouse]

Just a bunch of nerds and dinosaurs, cheering on a bunch of frauds.

I had such little faith in this back to backer that I went shopping with the wife for the Canes and went to Dune for the Sabres. I'll be in the barn Tuesday though.

I prefer the term old fart.