Post-Game Talk: JUMP TO THE PUMP: Jets have gas in 5-2 win over Sabres

[ps241]

Yes to the bolded, but the biggest struggle here seems to be handling conflicting points of view. Fans come in different shapes and sizes--some glass full, some glass empty; some analytical, some emotional; but almost always stuck to their POV. It's just like the real world...which I guess explains a lot about the real world.

Yup

I’m not above it either, just in case that is the vibe I am throwing off.

 

[Brominator]

They've got gas!


Discuss below.

Totally sang that song in my head the second I saw the thread title.

 

[surixon]

I want to see Barron-Gus-Perfetti for a few more games... been cheering for Barron to get on 2nd line but maybe we end up with a 'scoring' fourth line


Jagr

My issue with Barron in the top 6 is he has tunnel vision. He doesn't read and react very well off of linemates in the ozone. He's good at doing it himself against weaker comp but I find he's lost with skilled players.

But yes imo they are trying to create a 17-18 situation with him and Cole on line 4 going into the playoffs. The big issue is he doesn't trust Gus at center hence cutting their minutes substantially in the third.

My guess is he wants Namestnikov back down there but Vilardi's injury has thrown a wrench into that. I guess the length of it will determine what if anything Chevy does with our forwards this Friday.

I still think they need an upgrade on Schmidt more though so hopefully Gabe isn't out long term.

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

He'd be a nice bridge guy to get us into Perfetti, Lambert, Chibby, McGroarty starting to be integrated.

I'd personally want to get him on a 2 year deal but at his age I'm betting he's looking for a minimum 5 year deal, especially since his health issues stunted his earning.

I just don't think the Jets are the team to sign him. I see him going to a young team that needs some veteran presence - maybe even back to the Habs.

We have no one else to play 2c. He would be worth it on a 4 year deal. We have our top guys in their prime for the next 3/4 years. May as well add another.

 

[Cotton Eye Joe]

Scoring isn't everything.

Id be all for giving Barron a shot in the top 6, I've always liked his game. Iafallo is not an offensive player, really. He is producing lower than expected this year though.

I do think he provides a stabilizing effect to the top 6 when he's there, we seem to get hemmed less. Probably because he does the digging and makes smart plays to get the puck out.

I don't think Barron does that as well which is why he's not the choice. Also, he's the driver of the 4th line so if you take him off there they are a lot less effective.

For me, 68 or 7 are the guys who should be in the top 6 when needed. They have the skill and smarts to hang.

I really don't know how I feel about picking up another top 6 forward. Do we need it? Is it with the cost?

I'd rather try and find a RHD .

68?

 

[DRW204]

I want to see Barron-Gus-Perfetti for a few more games... been cheering for Barron to get on 2nd line but maybe we end up with a 'scoring' fourth line


Jagr

in the order of importance id rather have a v productive top-6 which includes the 2nd line.

if 4M iafallo w/ perfetti on the 4th can't push some offense, what exactly are we doing here w/ him? the guy went 20 and 18 games w/o a goal primarily in the top-6+PP1 time, but crickets compared to Perfetti's 18 gm drought or ehlers + top-line goes a few games w/o scoring a goal - hey back down the line-up you go.

is barron some anchor w/o the puck? or soft AF like kc? i don't think so. guy "does the little things" pretty well, & low and behold can do this big important thing called score goals which for some reason gets minimized on here. also adds an element of size and speed which i think the top-6 could benefit more from.

not saying it needs to be permanent at all. but based on his individual season & given one the current under-performers (probably the biggest underperformer YoY) in the top-6, i think he deserves a look up there. ppl theorizing about bringing in buchnevich, or eberle or guentzel for instance as a top-6 upgrade - lets see if barron can parlay his 4th line performance higher up the lineup. & this is coming from who was not really impressed w/ his showing in the top-6 last season.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

Interesting analysis but I think it’s a bit of a correlation does not equal causation situation, in that when the Jets get ahead, the time on ice is more evenly distributed. When the Jets haven’t scored and are behind, the top players get more ice time.

In the 49 games when Ehlers played north of 20 minutes per game, the Jets record in that time has been 36 losses, and 13 wins. He has a 5.4 shooting percentage in those games. He registered 10 goals, 20 assists, and he's a minus 1.

 

[sipowicz]

Haha he has some work to go to usurp Connor or Ehlers.

I've taken him under my wing as my new Copp!

 

[Weezeric]

I fully agree. I think the sweet spot is in around the 17 minute mark for skilled players. The top teams tend to deploy them in that range.



Yeah I'm not sure what they do with him. He's been great for us but as you mentioned he's going to want term on his next deal and imo some team will give it to him.

Not sure we can afford it.

Who are these teams that deploy the top players for 17 mins? Or do you mean 5v5?

 

[DRW204]

Kyle Connor should get less than 20 minutes per game, ideally somewhere around 18 minutes per game. I added two games that were a hair above the 19 minute mark, but here's how he performed in those games:

View attachment 829010

Here's how he performed - playing with PLD and mostly Svechnikov - in his best individual year (2021-2022); less than 20 minutes per contest:

View attachment 829012

And last season (2022-23), Connor registed 19 goals, 25 assists in the 35 games when he played less than 20 minutes per. He only scored 31 goals total last year!

Conversely, here's Nik Ehlers this year when he played more than 18 minutes a game:

View attachment 829015

And last year:

View attachment 829017

Ehlers highest "Average Time on Ice" was in 2021-22, at 18:04 per. Here's how he performed in games where he played less than 18 minutes per game:

View attachment 829018

He's greater playing reduced minutes, and KFC should (ideally) get scaled back too.

I pointed this out last week (or so), but here's the Dallas Stars:

View attachment 829019

That's 4 guys who are averaging 16 minutes per game, and none of them has fewer than 18 goals, and only Jason Robertson has taken +170 shots; and he averages the most minutes amongst the forwards of course.

Our forwards by comparison (excluding Sunday's game):

View attachment 829020

i like the idea of Dallas' structure however they have better depth in my view offensively than what we have. 7 players w/ 40+ pts, 5 players w/ 20+ goals for example vs 3 & 1 for us. who do you think of the current WPG Jets <16mins crew would be producing ~20 goals ~40 pts thus far similar to Dallas?

im for the balance but i think you're posting TOI that includes PP right? i think it's mostly 5v5 TOI that folks see a benefit. I don't think Ehlers is a great PP player so id be fine if he's still on PP2.

but grouping the last 3 years in TOI buckets, and idk what's a meaningful groupings break or not and chose arbitrary numbers so i am open to suggestions, anyway

all stats at 5v5, he's played 167gp the last 3-seasons distributed on per game TOI average like this:

8:45-11:44 - 33 gp - 17GF 14GA 55% GF share
11:45-14:44 - 75 gp - 58GF 37GA 61% GF share
14:45-17:45 - 54gp - 48 GF 23 GA 68% GF share

he has 6gp above 17:45 which i removed completely (he's 3GF 2GA in those), & for reference he's at 13:03 per gp this year (not sure what is at just 2nd line mins), and KC is at 15:27, i think there's room to get them both around ~14 mins, but really that's what 2-3 shifts? is that really a big deal? Ehlers' individual production is at its best in the 2nd bucket (2.93 pts/60) but the 3rd one is pretty damn good at 2.4 pts/60

i think the main areas the team could benefit from an ehlers and kc LW swap b/c of their net goals. Ehlers & Scheifele together either - with or without connor - is one of the best fwd pairings in terms of outscoring the competition. KC+Scheifele+Ehlers have been a +5, & KC+Scheifele are a -8 when you remove ehlers off that line so a +13 goal swing w/ ehlers (over the past 3 seasons), the alternative was usually wheeler. KC, Scheifele+Ehlers w/o KC have been a +19 over the same time frame with the other player being Stastny, Wheeler or Vilardi.

you may covered this even further in an additional post;
there isn't much recent data w/ KC playing w/ a C away from scheifele... but going back a couple years - 21'-23' KC & PLD together are a +19 at 5v5 (57% GF share) and KC had his best individual season primarily paired w/ PLD. it is a different C with Monahan comparatively. the other winger for reference who played w/ those 2 in order of most TOI were: Svechnikov, Perfetti, Wheeler, Gagner, Ehlers or Harkins.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yup. Besides lulls in both games (hint: teams rarely dominate the entire game) I thought the Jets deserved to win both.

Still a ways to go to get to 'pack of wolves' but the team is heading in the right direction.

As an aside, it's so nice to be able to go down a top 6 forward and not have the feeling we won't score.

I'm not sure they are quite all the way back to first half level of play, but they are moving in the right direction and getting close.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ehlers is one of my favourite players. Hell I have a game worn, signed jersey of his hanging in my home office. And I love that he is our jump starter, and I'm guessing he relishes the role.

Usage has limited his scoring totals for years. That makes a big difference at contract time. Next contract is his last big one. I guess he might relish that role if he doesn't care about the money or prestige.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

No. You only del Perfetti for someone with term

Anyways good solid game. Feel like we are getting back to the successful style we had early in the season. I don't mind Ehlers down on the 2nd line, I thought it balanced us out this game.

It wouldn't shock me to see Ehlers finish his career here. He will be 30 at the end of this deal. A nice 6 year deal at the end of this. He doesn't seem like "IM IN IT FOR THE MONEY" guy. I don't know that is just how I see it

It isn't that Ehlers on the 2nd line is a terrible thing. It is that Ehlers with Scheifele is so much better than the alternative.

Connor can play 2nd line too if you want to spread the talent around.

I don't get that "in it for the money" vibe from Ehlers either, but that doesn't mean it isn't there.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Both Buchnevich and Smith have term.

Smith is not on the same tier as Buchnevich.

 

[DRW204]

To be fair, he’s been dog shit for two months. You will always get opinions that range from what have you done for me lately to regurgitating his draft day profile.

dog shit is a bit harsh esp. when you have a vet player making 4M who went 18gp and 20gp w/o a goal as primarily a top-6er and playing quite a bit of PP time. what's worse than dog shit we categorize the latter?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't know. Perhaps something with the"pushback" moniker. Anything but frauds.

Pushback can backfire just as easily as Frauds. So can any slogan, if you fail to live up to it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So the team's strategy is to prioritize individual player success over team success? I love 27-55 together as that is our best forward pairing, but Ehlers can drive any line and using him to do so is a hell of a tool Bones has if used well.

You may be right about the way Bones is using Ehlers. It may look like it the last couple of games. But longer term it just looks like he doesn't appreciate Ehlers.

 

[TS Quint]

dog shit is a bit harsh esp. when you have a vet player making 4M who went 18gp and 20gp w/o a goal as primarily a top-6er and playing quite a bit of PP time. what's worse than dog shit we categorize the latter?

Dog shit is dog shit I don’t care what excuses and red herrings you want to give. Perfetti has been useless.

 

[raideralex99]

It's funny because instead of us forever debating ehlers getting more ice time, maybe we should be talking about Scheifele and Connor getting less.

Both of those guys are more effective when they have more gas in the tank.

We actually have the forward group now to distribute ice time more equally.
Ofc game situation will have an impact but playing the lines something like 17 16 15 12 could really benefit the team heading down the stretch and into the playoffs

Bowness did said last week ... with the heavy schedule this month he wants to cut down the times and distribute them more evenly with the 4th line getting more minutes and you need that for the playoffs but sometimes when there's too many penalties it screws everything up and he can't.
You notice in the playoffs the refs call less penalties and the 3rd and 4th lines play more and that's usually the difference in the wins and losses the depth players ... just ask the Oilers and Leafs.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the org sees him as most valuable playing on a dominant 2nd line vs soft matchups... Lowry and Schief will always draw the other team's top lines, which leaves Ehlers free to feast on 3rd and 4th lines

I'm also not sold on Ehlers' durability playing top line minutes vs other teams top D pairs every game

That would be fine - if Ehlers was feasting playing on the 2nd line. But that hasn't been working out.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We need two scoring lines Vilardi once again threw a wrench into that so moving Ehlers down to the second line does work especially cause Vladdy fits in on the top line.

Except then the 2nd line doesn't work.

 

[DRW204]

So the team's strategy is to prioritize individual player success over team success? I love 27-55 together as that is our best forward pairing, but Ehlers can drive any line and using him to do so is a hell of a tool Bones has if used well.

What a ridiculous classification. How about look beyond individual production and look at the top line's net overall with and without Ehlers inclusion over recent years with or without KC.

If you're scared of KC on the second line
, while you're at it, look at KC away from scheifele too although It may be a different C this time around.

 

[surixon]

Except then the 2nd line doesn't work.

The second line barely scores 5 on 5. Most of the players on that line's points have come on the pp or against the EN.

 

[Flair Hay]

It's funny because instead of us forever debating ehlers getting more ice time, maybe we should be talking about Scheifele and Connor getting less.

Both of those guys are more effective when they have more gas in the tank.

We actually have the forward group now to distribute ice time more equally.
Ofc game situation will have an impact but playing the lines something like 17 16 15 12 could really benefit the team heading down the stretch and into the playoffs

Yup, that's what I saw as well. Maybe we can play Ehlers more, just on the 3rd line and not the 1st.

I still do think there is a ton of good data pointing to Ehlers 1st line Connor 3rd line being a good idea.

This helped add some context to the debate for sure.

Rolling 4 lines almost equally, saying screw matchups let's just all do our part is probably going to make us better overall.

Especially with players like Barron and Perfetti on the 4th line.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Keep ehlers on top line and 2nd pp.