Value of: JT Miller for the 2nd OA pick- What additions would be needed

[Freudian]

Seems to me that Canucks fans want 2nd overall pick more than Devils fans want Miller at $8M+/year when he's 30. I think both fan bases are correct in their views.

 

[Guttersniped]

Yes this is true, but your realize NHL GM's are going to pay him right? Why would that lower his 'value' when the people who are actually going to pay him that will be the same ones that will actually be trading for him? I'm not commenting on the Miller for 2nd overall here but just saying.

Commenting on that topic though I have no idea what NJ plans to do but if they do plan on trading the 2nd overall (theoretically, I don't actually see it) and want to actually complete a trade then a deal around an extended Miller is more realistic than not, simply because this is something that goes both ways. you rarely see a pick like this get traded because they're so valuable, but you also often here teams trying to trade these picks but it never happens because other teams say they're asking too much.

Basically mixing reality/fan perception it probably goes something like:

NJ - We're willing to move the 2nd OV
VAN - We'll let you negotiate an extension and offer you Miller
NJ - No that's too risky, what if he declines and the 2nd OV becomes a star. We want Hughes
VAN - No imagine if we trade Hughes and the 2nd OV busts, that's too risky.

And so you hit a deadlock and nothing happens. In terms of trades that actually happened you have Yashin for Spezza/Chara and not a 2nd overall but close at Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd's for #4 overall Joni Pitkanen, and more recently Stepan and Raanta for 7th overall. That's what I can remember for the past 20 or so years, and it shows when a trade actually happens the balance leans towards the buyers/Vancouver's side from the negotiation above.

The Devils never said they were willing to move the 2OA.

Before the draft, in the general after the season presser, a reporter asked Fitzgerald if he was willing to trade their 2022 1st.

He gave a generic hypothetical generic “yes, I would consider any move that improves the team, that’s my job blah blah”. That got picked up by the National NHL rumor mill as the “NJ 1st is in play” because it gave people something to talk about.

It was very unlikely to have been moved as the ~6th pick but as the 2nd that’s now likely a near impossibility. Fitz certainly won’t be negotiating with teams to find out what’s available just to get something done. There would be have to be extraordinary offer or the plan will be to use draft pick. Teams don’t trade 2OAs these days.

 

[wetcoast]

Vancouver adds a lot. Man is Miller ever overrated.

Sure guys who score PPG+ grow on trees eh?

I get that Miller is a UFA after next year and is 29 as well but seriously this isn't the 23 draft we are talking about here.

The Vancouver adds alot crowd sounds like it hasn't watched Miller play for a while.

 

[Fatass]

Sure guys who score PPG+ grow on trees eh?

I get that Miller is a UFA after next year and is 29 as well but seriously this isn't the 23 draft we are talking about here.

The Vancouver adds alot crowd sounds like it hasn't watched Miller play for a while.

Miller has been very good for his time in Vancouver. Considering his age and contract status (he’s pretty much a rental) I don’t think he’s worth 2OA.

 

[jmelm]

So if Miller was 20 and putting up 99 points then he would be worth the 2nd OA, HAHAHAH wow........

Ohhhh, I get it! You're taking me literally when I talk about including a time machine as part of the trade.

p.s. you know those don't actually exist, right?

 

[wetcoast]

Miller has been very good for his time in Vancouver. Considering his age and contract status (he’s pretty much a rental) I don’t think he’s worth 2OA.

Fair enough but the OP had him listed as an extended contract with the Devils so he wouldn't be a rental in that sense.

Either way I doubt NJ makes this trade as most GMs don't have the jam to do so.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

I highly doubt that devils actually trade #2 pick. Would be more feasible that if (big if) devils actually want miller it would likely be for 2023 1st. So think it’s safe to say devils make their first round pick in this draft. At the same time do devils really need another centre? They already have Hughes and hischier. I mean you could play miller on the wing but…

 

[HockeyNightInAsia]

The trade probably isn't anywhere close to happening anyway.....

But it's a typical case of a casual percentage of 31 fanbases thinking they don't need to watch hockey to know what the star of a 32nd team has achieved, and try to hijack the argument over.

 

[jmelm]

Fair enough but the OP had him listed as an extended contract with the Devils so he wouldn't be a rental in that sense.

Either way I doubt NJ makes this trade as most GMs don't have the jam to do so.

It's not about lack of "jam". It's about knowing where they are in their competitive cycle.

Miller is a guy you trade a big price for to put you over the top to try to win a cup. NJD is not winning a cup in the next 2-3 years.

However, if they wanted to trade for a younger player like Timo Meier, then that would make a lot more sense given his age.

 

[Luck 6]

Goalies don’t have that kind of value, even goalies of Demko’s talent, too pairing D does

I think Demko does. He’s a top tier goalie in his mid 20s signed to a sweet heart deal. NJD did 9OA for Schneider, and Demko is significantly better than where Schneider was at at the time of the trade.

As a Canuck fan I wouldn’t do it, and I can understand why NJD may not, I’m just saying the value should be close.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

9

I think Demko does. He’s a top tier goalie in his mid 20s signed to a sweet heart deal. NJD did 9OA for Schneider, and Demko is significantly better than where Schneider was at at the time of the trade.

As a Canuck fan I wouldn’t do it, and I can understand why NJD may not, I’m just saying the value should be close.

9th is a far cry from 2nd
You’re definitely underselling Schneider from then though.
If I was a Canuck fan I wouldn’t do it either, but it’s not about value it’s about having no other serviceable goaltender

 

[Cogburn]

On this site, if time travel was a thing, the player picked with an absolute consensus as first overall isn't worth the first overall pick.

Not that New Jersey should make this trade, but I truly feel that people on here would argue McDavid was worth less than the first round pick used to draft him.

 

[Hisch13r]

On this site, if time travel was a thing, the player picked with an absolute consensus as first overall isn't worth the first overall pick.

Not that New Jersey should make this trade, but I truly feel that people on here would argue McDavid was worth less than the first round pick used to draft him.

Stop acting like a 29 year old who is a UFA in a year is this monster trade chip.

 

[Cogburn]

On this site, if time travel was a thing, the player picked with an absolute consensus as first overall isn't worth the first overall pick.

Not that New Jersey should make this trade, but I truly feel that people on here would argue McDavid was worth less than the first round pick used to draft him.

Stop acting like a 29 year old who is a UFA in a year is this monster trade chip.

Great reading skills, pal.

 

[playasRus]

Alpha leader lol

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I think Demko does. He’s a top tier goalie in his mid 20s signed to a sweet heart deal. NJD did 9OA for Schneider, and Demko is significantly better than where Schneider was at at the time of the trade.

As a Canuck fan I wouldn’t do it, and I can understand why NJD may not, I’m just saying the value should be close.

based on what, exactly?

Schneider was .927 SV% and 2.20 GAA for his career at the time he was traded to NJ. Demko is at .912 and 2.84....

 

[jmelm]

If Demko were to be traded, he’s worth a pick in the 3-5 value wise. Those teams in that slots are not looking for a goalie now though.

VAN would be nuts to trade Demko unless they were getting a top 2 pick in this particular draft (not top 2 in next year’s draft, given the difference in players).

 

[Cogburn]

Demkos been mentioned multiple times from multiple sources as not being moved. Full stop.

We're not moving him, even for a better pick, which we do need.

 

[Mal Reynolds]

based on what, exactly?

Schneider was .927 SV% and 2.20 GAA for his career at the time he was traded to NJ. Demko is at .912 and 2.84....

Canucks were a top team at the time Schneider was moved, while they're a middling at best team right now. Demko is perhaps their best player at the moment, and better than the numbers indicate

(That said, I don't think he's worth a #2 pick, even factoring in the Devils desperate need for stable goaltending and the fact that the draft is more deep than top heavy)

 

[nergish]

Stop acting like a 29 year old who is a UFA in a year is this monster trade chip.

He’s literally one of the best players in the league, but go off

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

JT Miller is certainly not "one of the best players in the league"

 

[Cogburn]

JT Miller is certainly not "one of the best players in the league"

I mean....how are we calculating this?

9th in points, 6th in assists, 32nd on goals, 24th in faceoffs won, 3rd in powerplay points, more hits than anyone in the top 60 for scoring, second in blocked shots (behind Matthews) in the top thirty for scoring I'm blocked shots,, fourth most faceoffs won on the top 60 scoring, and with out looking it up, but I'm sure he's a league leader in win percentage when scoring...I mean how are we measuring "one of the best" here. Top 10? Top 20? Top 32?

Again, the proposed trade isn't something I'm supporting, but I'd say Miller is most definitely one of the best players in the game. Not THE best, not necessarily a top 10 guy (although I'd argue he is), but top 20? You bet he is.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

he had a great 2021-22 season

that does not make him "one of the best players in the league", sorry. He isn't top 10 or top 20 and its not even close.

 

[Ottobot]

I wish, but 2nd OA is too valuable and Miller doesn’t line up with NJ youth.

Can’t see anyone else with a top-10 pick biting except maybe Flyers at 5th because GM is desperate.

 

[Cogburn]

he had a great 2021-22 season

that does not make him "one of the best players in the league", sorry. He isn't top 10 or top 20 and its not even close.

No, he hasn't had a good season, he's had three in a row, corresponding directly to his first line role in Vancouver. Find me 20 players with his output in as many categories. He's a great scorer, a better playmaker, can skate, can hit, can play physically, can play defense (although I will admit that his Achilles' Heel is remaining engaged defensively at all times), kills penalties, dominates on the powerplay, takes important faceoffs and wins, plays all three forward positions with equal aplomb and landed 12th in scoring leaguewide over the last three years.

How far back do we need to go? I mean he's no Richard or Gretzky.