Value of: JT Miller for the 2nd OA pick- What additions would be needed

[Brodeur]

Jesus only on HF is a draft pick worth more than a 99 point forward in his prime.

As others mentioned, it's tough to ignore Miller's age/contract situation. Going back to when the Islanders knowingly traded the Jason Spezza pick:

Alexei Yashin's 2000-2001 season: (age 27) 88 points)

And allegedly the Islanders made the same offer to Boston for holdout forward Jason Allison.

Jason Allison's 2000-2001 season: (age 25) 95 points

Both Yashin and Allison were in their primes but required expensive new deals. Their subsequent few seasons:

Yashin
2001-02: 78 GP 75 points
2002-03: 81 GP 65 points
2003-04: 47 GP 34 points

Allison
2001-02: 73 GP 74 points
2002-03: 26 GP 28 points
2003-04: DNP

Admittedly a little unfair since Allison had some major injuries that derailed his career. But I don't think I'm going out on a limb thinking that the Islanders maybe would have rather have kept Spezza long term. Yashin nearly helped them win the division in Year 1 but started to decline thereafter.

I'd also have concerns that Miller's 99 point season will end up looking like an outlier season.

Not to pick on the Islanders, but I'm also reminded of the time they traded a 1st+ for Thomas Vanek who was an impending free agent. Vanek was reasonably productive but declined to sign an extension. Islanders then traded him for less than what they gave up. Vanek left some money on the table by declining the Islanders extension to sign with Minnesota. Vanek should have still been in his prime at age 30 but started declining shortly thereafter.

And I don't think whoever goes #2 this year has the same upside that 2001 Spezza did. But #2 for an impending free agent that'll be looking to cash in seems unlikely. When the Devils were more likely in the #5-8 range in the lottery, it made more sense to flip the pick for somebody who could help immediately.

I'm also reminded of the 2015 Draft when the Sharks nearly traded #9 and a young Tomas Hertl for T.J. Oshie and Kevin Shattenkirk. They got cold feet and decided to keep the pick and take Timo Meier. Shattenkirk likely would have spurned them to sign for less with the Rangers in 2017. How bad would the Sharks have been the last couple years had they done that deal?

 

[Jumptheshark]

Jesus only on HF is a draft pick worth more than a 99 point forward in his prime.

1) Deep draft
2) How many 99 pts seasons has he had?--I am seeing one
3) 30+ goal seasons 1
4) We have 10 seasons to look at and not 1 or 2

He has caught magic in a bottle in Vancouver--that does not mean it will follow him where ever he goes

since becoming a full time NHLER

his stats

2014-15	New York Rangers	NHL	58	10	13	23	23	5	19	1	7	8	2
2015-16	New York Rangers	NHL	82	22	21	43	46	10	5	0	3	3	4
2016-17	New York Rangers	NHL	82	22	34	56	21	17	12	0	3	3	21
2017-18	Tampa Bay Lightning	NHL	19	10	8	18	12	-3	17	2	6	8	15
2017-18	New York Rangers	NHL	63	13	27	40	28	-1	--	--	--	--	--
2018-19	Tampa Bay Lightning	NHL	75	13	34	47	30	8	4	0	2	2	0
2019-20	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	69	27	45	72	47	11	17	6	12	18	14
2020-21	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	53	15	31	46	43	-7	--	--	--	--	--
2021-22	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	80	32	67	99	47	15

HE has talent but I would not be willing to give up the 2nd overall pick in a deep draft for a player who has played elswhere--but did not put up the same numbers

The number 2 pick is 17/18 years old and about the time the Devils come out of rebuild? He will be in his 30's and when they are about to start winning? Looking for a rocking chair

He is just not a fit with the devils. if he was 25--then yes--but he is 29

 

[Kupo]

Dumb proposal. You’re not getting the 2nd OA for JTM.

 

[joepeps]

Rentals are overrated. When was the last time a rental returned a guaranteed top 10 pick let alone 2nd OA? Also if you think this draft is weak you are ignorant as hell

Well the draft is kinda weird because scouts are saying Shane Wright isn't even consensus #1... he hasn't played well and could drop.

so who knows.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Miller isn’t mcdavid….no…just no.

Miller is a 30 yr old rental player.

He's still 29, no matter how many times people say he's 30... and a "rental player" is typically a player picked up at the TDL, not in the off season.

Anyway, I don't see the Devils trading their 2nd for him, even if the Canucks added and even if he had a reasonable extension. They'd be a better team next year if they did... but probably a worse team 5 years from now.

 

[RandV]

He just had a career year way beyond his career numbers and is about to demand a giant contract. All the reasons Vancouver would deal him is why everyone in every Miller thread is saying “that’s too much”. Like, we aren’t all idiots just like y’all are not idiots for not rioting in the streets about not bringing back a “99 point power forward”.

Yes this is true, but your realize NHL GM's are going to pay him right? Why would that lower his 'value' when the people who are actually going to pay him that will be the same ones that will actually be trading for him? I'm not commenting on the Miller for 2nd overall here but just saying.

Commenting on that topic though I have no idea what NJ plans to do but if they do plan on trading the 2nd overall (theoretically, I don't actually see it) and want to actually complete a trade then a deal around an extended Miller is more realistic than not, simply because this is something that goes both ways. you rarely see a pick like this get traded because they're so valuable, but you also often here teams trying to trade these picks but it never happens because other teams say they're asking too much.

Basically mixing reality/fan perception it probably goes something like:

NJ - We're willing to move the 2nd OV
VAN - We'll let you negotiate an extension and offer you Miller
NJ - No that's too risky, what if he declines and the 2nd OV becomes a star. We want Hughes
VAN - No imagine if we trade Hughes and the 2nd OV busts, that's too risky.

And so you hit a deadlock and nothing happens. In terms of trades that actually happened you have Yashin for Spezza/Chara and not a 2nd overall but close at Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd's for #4 overall Joni Pitkanen, and more recently Stepan and Raanta for 7th overall. That's what I can remember for the past 20 or so years, and it shows when a trade actually happens the balance leans towards the buyers/Vancouver's side from the negotiation above.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I don't even see a realistic add here. Why would NJ trade 7+ years of control including 3 ELC years of Cooley/Slaf/Wright so they can sign 30 year old miller to their rebuilding team?

Trading a potential Pastrnak level prospect for a 30 year old is just bad management.

Miller is a 30 yr old rental player.

No rebuilding team is trading the 2nd overall pick for a 30 year old, one-time 30 goal scorer.

And sorry, 30 isn't prime for Fs.

JT Miller is not 30 years old.

 

[Djp]

JT Miller is not 30 years old.

he turns 30 next season which still app,it’s to resigning him if you were going to acquire him.

 

[bandwagonesque]

he turns 30 next season which still app,it’s to resigning him if you were going to acquire him.

Yes, and this means he's 29 right now. Whereas various people are saying he's 30, which he isn't.

 

[Tryamkin]

He just had a career year way beyond his career numbers and is about to demand a giant contract. All the reasons Vancouver would deal him is why everyone in every Miller thread is saying “that’s too much”. Like, we aren’t all idiots just like y’all are not idiots for not rioting in the streets about not bringing back a “99 point power forward”.

New Jersey < Miller, Boeser, Myers (50% retained)

Vancouver < #2 pick, Dahl, Foote, Stillman, Tatar, Johnsson


Devils get a major upgrade to their top 6 without parting with any of their prized prospects, they also add a veteran RD at half his cap hit to replace Subban

Canucks land the 2nd overall pick, plus a nice haul of prospects who have the potential to develop into solid contributors in the years to come

Roald Dahl the author? That would be cool but not exactly enticing..

he turns 30 next season which still app,it’s to resigning him if you were going to acquire him.

Well this girl is 18 next year so it’s okay…

 

[SeiderHouseRulez]

You dont see a realistic add?

This isnt noted to be a strong draft year with a Mcdavid or Bedard.

Were looking at players like Slaf, Cooley or Jiricek who are not projected to be "franchise players"

Do you really think there's a major difference between those 3 players i mentioned compared to guys like Kemmel, Nazar, Savoi, Nemec whom they publically said they'd be willing to move had they been picking 5th or so.

and Miller just turned 29 not 30 but i hear ya.




99 point power forward is "over-rated"

what about 18 yr old magic bean prospects in a weak draft?

It's always magic beans when it's someone else's high pick.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Roald Dahl the author? That would be cool but not exactly enticing..

He was 6'6" and definitely truculent at times, I wouldn't be against it.

 

[TheRumble]

You trade futures for a JT Miller if you're looking to contend. The New Jersey Devils are not contending next year.

 

[Connor McConnor]

You dont see a realistic add?

This isnt noted to be a strong draft year with a Mcdavid or Bedard.

Were looking at players like Slaf, Cooley or Jiricek who are not projected to be "franchise players"

Do you really think there's a major difference between those 3 players i mentioned compared to guys like Kemmel, Nazar, Savoi, Nemec whom they publically said they'd be willing to move had they been picking 5th or so.

and Miller just turned 29 not 30 but i hear ya.




99 point power forward is "over-rated"

what about 18 yr old magic bean prospects in a weak draft?

He is overrated. He's had one career year just like Nazem Kadri did. Canuck fans tell me he's a "2-way player" yet his defense has gotten worse every single year as he focuses on counting stats.

He's a damn good player but he's worth closer to $7m than the $9m he's going to want and he's 30 years old.

Canuck fans are in for a rude awakening when this guy doesn't return nearly as much as they think he will.

 

[BWJM]

Fans won't even look at the extended part . I still would say no from NJD point of view unless it is Demko in there

Demko + Miller extended to NJD
2nd OA + Blackwood to Vancouver

NJD may have to make a small add but much more fair than Miller for the 2nd OA considering where NJD are at in their rebuild and what Miller contract will look like .

Wow this is horrible, we're going to gift them Miller AND one of the top goalies in the league for a bum starter and the 2nd overall pick? Cooley must be the next McDavid.

Look at all the top 3 busts over the years. #2 overall isn't the next coming of Jesus.

 

[RandV]

You trade futures for a JT Miller if you're looking to contend. The New Jersey Devils are not contending next year.

Just as often if not more teams trading for players like Miller at the draft are teams that have been stocking up for a few seasons and want to take the next step forward, doesn't always work but it always happens. A team like New Jersey could be more likely than a team like Colorado because while the latter is contending being a contender means you're going to be much more restrictive on cap space. I don't know if Miller is the right fit for them but a team that's drafted 12 times in the top 3 rounds the last 3 years and with plenty of cap space is a good bet to go after a player like Miller.

 

[McJedi]

Vancouver add at least their 1st

Vancouvers pick at 15th OA. And pick swaps in other rounds to put New Jersey ahead of Vancouver. So Vancouver second for Jerseys 3rd. Vancouvers 3rd for Jerseys 4th and so on.

Moves Vancouver down about 20 spots each round. But they get 2OA for a rental 29 year old.

 

[Brodeur]

Different type of player, but the Kings (with their championship window presumably still open) traded Martin Jones, Colin Miller, and the 13th pick in a stacked draft for a retained Milan Lucic. Lucic played well enough for LA but left as a free agent after the season despite LA making a concerted attempt to extend him.

Former Kings assistant GM Mike Futa said that the highest guy left on LA's board would have been Matt Barzal. With hindsight, maybe Dean Lombardi doesn't do that trade.

Edit: Also that #9 pick for Cory Schneider trade seemed to work out alright for Vancouver.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Different type of player, but the Kings (with their championship window presumably still open) traded Martin Jones, Colin Miller, and the 13th pick in a stacked draft for a retained Milan Lucic. Lucic played well enough for LA but left as a free agent after the season despite LA making a concerted attempt to extend him.

Former Kings assistant GM Mike Futa said that the highest guy left on LA's board would have been Matt Barzal. With hindsight, maybe Dean Lombardi doesn't do that trade.

Edit: Also that #9 pick for Cory Schneider trade seemed to work out alright for Vancouver.

It worked out okay for NJ too... would have been better if they'd actually played him instead of going with Zombie Brodeur.

 

[Hierso]

Goalies don’t have that kind of value, even goalies of Demko’s talent, too pairing D does

I know, that's why a said from a pure need.

 

[Brodeur]

It worked out okay for NJ too... would have been better if they'd actually played him instead of going with Zombie Brodeur.

Schneider played well for a couple years, unfortunately Lou wasn't willing to start a rebuild. I've read/heard conflicting things with who the scouts were intending to pick had we kept the pick. There's a chance we would have bungled that selection as well. Might've been a situation where it ended up poorly for us with either path.

 

[John Pedro]

Guys I'd be willing to trade this pick for:

Timo Meier
Quinn Hughes
Kevin Fiala (maybe with some add)

definitely not JT Miller

 

[Forge]

Guys I'd be willing to trade this pick for:

Timo Meier
Quinn Hughes
Kevin Fiala (maybe with some add)

definitely not JT Miller

Tkachuk (probably either one but Matthew no doubt) could probably be added to that. Don't think I would trade 2OA for Fiala. I don't know why, I'd just rather build that trade around Holtz. No idea why...just a weird quirk I have.

Obviously not all of those teams would give up those players for #2OA only too.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Jesus only on HF is a draft pick worth more than a 99 point forward in his prime.

And he'll be getting paid like it's his prime as he moves out of it very soon

 

[John Pedro]

Tkachuk (probably either one but Matthew no doubt) could probably be added to that. Don't think I would trade 2OA for Fiala. I don't know why, I'd just rather build that trade around Holtz. No idea why...just a weird quirk I have.

Obviously not all of those teams would give up those players for #2OA only too.

Wild has little leverage so we could try a Holtz + for Fiala deal too. I forgot about Tkachuk, we really need a guy like that, if we keep the pick the hope is Slaf can be as good as him if we go with him.