Player Discussion Josh Norris (C) 6’-1” - Part 3

[Alex1234]

570 th in the league in cost per point and paid to score goals
Need IV with Redbull in it asap

 

[dumbdick]

I would be shopping Norris. If next year looks like this one, we'll never move him.

 

[Tuna99]

he hasn’t score a goal in 12 games, no goals in January and is -4 with 3 points in those 12 games.

 

[Micklebot]

I would be shopping Norris. If next year looks like this one, we'll never move him.

Why would the expectation be for next year to look anything like this one?

He missed an entire season, was still going through rehab right through training camp, and now is adjusting to a coaching change mid season.

Shopping him now carries significant risk of selling low,

 

[dumbdick]

Why would the expectation be for next year to look anything like this one?

He missed an entire season, was still going through rehab right through training camp, and now is adjusting to a coaching change mid season.

Shopping him now carries significant risk of selling low,

And not shopping him now could carry equal or greater risks.

He's not demonstrating any of the skillset that earned him that overpriced contract.

He's 38 games into the season. If he can't rebound he's going to get leapfrogged out of the top 6 by Pinto Joseph and Greig.

We might end up with an $8M third line winger that scores 15 goals and disappears for stretches.

Thats a much bigger risk than selling low.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Is it just me or does he basically just refuse to shoot anymore?

 

[Nova Stutzlia]

Josh had 20 points in his 1st 26 games - 0.77 P/GP.
Not bad, actually pretty good considering.

In his last 12 games he's only had 3 points, and people want to throw him overboard.
???

 

[BondraTime]

Why would the expectation be for next year to look anything like this one?

He missed an entire season, was still going through rehab right through training camp, and now is adjusting to a coaching change mid season.

Shopping him now carries significant risk of selling low,

I’d argue this is more likely what his career will look like, and we signed him based on an unsustainable season in a position he’s unlikely to be keeping through his career.

I think we’d be selling on what he’s expected to look like for the majority of his career. A 25-30 goal, ~50-55 point center.

 

[Micklebot]

I’d argue this is more likely what his career will look like, and we signed him based on an unsustainable season in a position he’s unlikely to be keeping through his career.

I think we’d be selling on what he’s expected to look like for the majority of his career. A 25-30 goal, ~50-55 point center.

So you don't think missing an entire season along with training camp has impacted his season at all?

I'm not saying I expect him to be a 40+ goal pt per game guy, but I do think we can expect a better player when he gets an offseason of training instead of rehab, a training camp of getting ready for the season instead of still working about his shoulder, and a season of refining a system instead of a coaching change and complete back to basics overhaul.

Now, if you don't think he's worth the contract even after that, or that he's an injury risk going forward that we should move on from, that's a different conversation, I just don't think the player we are seeing now is the player we can expect going forward, there are factors that history tells us are likely to impact his season in place which we can assume won't always be there.

 

[BondraTime]

So you don't think missing an entire season along with training camp has impacted his season at all?

I'm not saying I expect him to be a 40+ goal pt per game guy, but I do think we can expect a better player when he gets an offseason of training instead of rehab, a training camp of getting ready for the season instead of still working about his shoulder, and a season of refining a system instead of a coaching change and complete back to basics overhaul.

Now, if you don't think he's worth the contract even after that, or that he's an injury risk going forward that we should move on from, that's a different conversation, I just don't think the player we are seeing now is the player we can expect going forward, there are factors that history tells us are likely to impact his season in place which we can assume won't always be there.

I don’t think we’re going to see a much improved player moving forward from this season, no.

I think with a move back to 2nd/3rd line and 2nd PP, the Norris of his contract year will look smaller and smaller in the rear view.

Obviously my own opinion

 

[GCK]

His underlying numbers are better than his play. The eye test in the past several games definitely does not agree with the underlying numbers. I am talking about his compete level and his willingness to support his team mates in puck battles .. I really don't look at his goals

I have to completely disagree. I’ve loved the fact he’s not jumping in when he is cover, so many times the team gets caught by being over aggressive.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I have to completely disagree. I’ve loved the fact he’s not jumping in when he is cover, so many times the team gets caught by being over aggressive.

I am not talking about the Dzone . I am talking about the Ozone. Where he is not jumping in to support an outmanned puck battle.. which results in a possession loss and the team going the other way. He stands outside the battle .. not in cover of anyone hoping the puck comes out to him. Its this lack of support that has been pointed out and has improved across most forwards.

Winning puck battles is important. I wish they had public stats on that. If you are on the wrong side of them, you are likely on the wrong side of the score as well.

 

[GCK]

I don’t think we’re going to see a much improved player moving forward from this season, no.

I think with a move back to 2nd/3rd line and 2nd PP, the Norris of his contract year will look smaller and smaller in the rear view.

Obviously my own opinion

35-35 is my expectation with very good Defensive awareness. He has hit a wall physically of late, same as most guys that miss camp.

I am not talking about the Dzone . I am talking about the Ozone. Where he is not jumping in to support an outmanned puck battle.. which results in a possession loss and the team going the other way. He stands outside the battle .. not in cover of anyone hoping the puck comes out to him. Its this lack of support that has been pointed out and has improved across most forwards.

Winning puck battles is important. I wish they had public stats on that. If you are on the wrong side of them, you are likely on the wrong side of the score as well.

I’ll watch for that specifically tonight.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

35-35 is my expectation with very good Defensive awareness. He has hit a wall physically of late, same as most guys that miss camp.


I’ll watch for that specifically tonight.

I am not predicting it will happen tonight but over the next few watch for it

 

[BondraTime]

35-35 is my expectation with very good Defensive awareness. He has hit a wall physically of late, same as most guys that miss camp.


I’ll watch for that specifically tonight.

Much, much higher than my expectations.

Let’s hope you’re right

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I am not talking about the Dzone . I am talking about the Ozone. Where he is not jumping in to support an outmanned puck battle.. which results in a possession loss and the team going the other way. He stands outside the battle .. not in cover of anyone hoping the puck comes out to him. Its this lack of support that has been pointed out and has improved across most forwards.

Winning puck battles is important. I wish they had public stats on that. If you are on the wrong side of them, you are likely on the wrong side of the score as well.

Agreed with your point but I've found he's been better at this lately. Was non-existent to start the season.

I don't think his offensive upside is much above 25-30+25-30, which is just a small hot streak beyond where he is now, but his defensive and all-around game have lots of room to improve.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Norris by the numbers ; Norris is coming off a tough injury and surgery and rehab . Everyone wants to see him back to his highest level we have seen. What are we seeing now as compared to Sens Forwards. These numbers are per 60 5v5.

Stat	2023/24 > 70 minutes	Jan 1 on > 25 minutes	2020/21 >100 minutes	2021/22 > 160 minutes
GF%	9	9	10​	3​
xGF%	13	14	2​	8​
SCF%	11	12	7​	9​
HDCF%	11	8	2​	6​
CF%	8	10	12​	4​
Pts/60	9	11	7​	4​
iCF	9	8	15​	9​
iSCF	14	8	14​	9​
iHDCF	7	8	4​	4​
Pen Drawn	5	6	5​	7​
Giveaways	10	3	10​	8​	fewest
Takwaways	7	10	13​	12​
Hits	7	7	9​	12​
Shots Blocked	4	3	6​	6​
Rush Attempts	9	11	11​	7​
Rebounds Created	12	5	9​	7​

 

[Sting]

His play right now reminds me a lot of Chris Tierney. He's there. That's about all you can say.

I personally think he should be a third line fixture until next year. Hopefully he has a good summer because we can't afford to pay someone 8 million to be very, very average.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

His play right now reminds me a lot of Chris Tierney. He's there. That's about all you can say.

I personally think he should be a third line fixture until next year. Hopefully he has a good summer because we can't afford to pay someone 8 million to be very, very average.

I wouldn't go that far. Tierney wasn't a good skater and was very much scoring challenged in his in Ottawa. 23 goals in 196 games, an under 10 goal per season pace, while Josh has 12 in 40 games.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Can anyone imagine what it would be like to a) actually get on the ice and play NHL hockey after missing an entire year and b) not be afraid to shoot sometimes in the dark thoughts of your shoulder coming apart again?

Just curious.

 

[Xspyrit]

Just a reminder... From March 15th 2021 (2020-21) to the end of the 2021-22 season (so until he got injured), Norris scored 47 goals in 91 games, which was the 20th highest total in the NHL during that period

It was a 0.52 GPG, tied for 13th highest (Kucherov had 0.53 in only 47 GP)

His defensive metrics in his rookie season were also elite, facing top competition every night at 21 y/o on a rebuilding team

We were looking at a young 2-way center elite at goal scoring, almost a prime Ryan Kesler.

There's no guarantee he ever goes back to that level but the conclusions drawn in this thread are very hasty IMO

I would be shopping Norris. If next year looks like this one, we'll never move him.

Sell low, buy high is the opposite of what you're supposed to do. The Dorion way

 

[dumbdick]

Sell low, buy high is the opposite of what you're supposed to do. The Dorion way

as i said in other posts, it's only sell low if he bounces back.

If there's a GM who expects him to bounce back to an $8M player, but in reality he bounces back to a $5M player, then now would be the time to sell high.

This isn't like a trick or anything. There's no simplistic "what you're supposed to do" here, as you suggest.

You're assuming he's that $8M player going forward. I'm less sure and am willing to unload him to a GM that thinks like you do to avoid the risk.

Keeping him has risks, as does dealing him. We'll see soon enough which one of us is gambling right.

 

[Xspyrit]

as i said in other posts, it's only sell low if he bounces back.

If there's a GM who expects him to bounce back to an $8M player, but in reality he bounces back to a $5M player, then now would be the time to sell high.

This isn't like a trick or anything. There's no simplistic "what you're supposed to do" here, as you suggest.

You're assuming he's that $8M player going forward. I'm less sure and am willing to unload him to a GM that thinks like you do to avoid the risk.

Keeping him has risks, as does dealing him. We'll see soon enough which one of us is gambling right.

Yeah, if someone is ready to pay full value then I could see the interest in trading him but that doesn't sound realistic as of now. Pierre is not even a GM anymore.

That said, was I assuming anything?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I'm still down for some Weegar for Norris action if that were possible. Could see Calgary being interested.

 

[BondraTime]

We already bought high on Norris with the contract, not sure there will be a sell high moving forward, comparably.

It's basically just sell to get out of the contract at this point, if you aren't fine with a 45/55 point #2/3 C making 8 million.

Getting out of that contract is a win, regardless of what they get back, IMO. The point of selling high left the station when the pen hit the ink.