Player Discussion Josh Norris (C) 6’-1” - Part 3

[Tuna99]

Even if Norris doesn’t turn into Sidney Crosby light like we’ve been selling him pre-injury a 2nd line Josh Norris scoring 25-35 goals a season is still a very good player and helps you win.
The thing about Norris is he has that Fred Van Fleet thing where if his stick gets hot in the playoffs and he’s scoring he can win you two rounds just on the PP and him feeling it, if he gets hit for 25 games he could be the contributing player who is a difference maker and wins you games. Josh ins capable of playing at an All-Star or Maurice Richard level for 30 straight games. He can be a difference maker

Weird thing with Norris is he has career 166 GP 66G and 47A. Only has 8 assists in 33 games this season and last year he only had 20 assists in 66 GP and 18A in 53GP the season before that.

If he could equal his goal and assist totals he’d be much more dangerous and noticeable. Or get shots on net more and get goals off the rebounds.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Josh Norris is on the ice for practice in a regular jersey today.

Dr micklebot nailed it

 

[PlayOn]

Even if Norris doesn’t turn into Sidney Crosby light like we’ve been selling him pre-injury a 2nd line Josh Norris scoring 25-35 goals a season is still a very good player and helps you win.
The thing about Norris is he has that Fred Van Fleet thing where if his stick gets hot in the playoffs and he’s scoring he can win you two rounds just on the PP and him feeling it, if he gets hit for 25 games he could be the contributing player who is a difference maker and wins you games. Josh ins capable of playing at an All-Star or Maurice Richard level for 30 straight games. He can be a difference maker

Weird thing with Norris is he has career 166 GP 66G and 47A. Only has 8 assists in 33 games this season and last year he only had 20 assists in 66 GP and 18A in 53GP the season before that.

If he could equal his goal and assist totals he’d be much more dangerous and noticeable. Or get shots on net more and get goals off the rebounds.

I agree with this. I don’t know that he’ll ever consistently equal his goal and assist totals because I just don’t think his vision/passing is very good, but maybe if we find a line that meshes really well like his rookie season.

Either way, a player that can pot 30+ goals is really valuable. I also never had high expectations for him coming back on form this year, so I’m not overly concerned. Even this season he’s shown flashes, we’ll see how he does in the second half.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Norris: Today was a good day, we'll see what tomorrow brings

Josh Norris speaks to the media after an optional practice day, as he looks to return from injury

www.tsn.ca

 

[Puikiou]

Both Greig and Pinto are better players. He's either a winger on this team or traded.

 

[dumbdick]

I thought he was overall pretty good today.

 

[PlayOn]

Both Greig and Pinto are better players. He's either a winger on this team or traded.

Odd timing. He was very good this weekend, especially today.

 

[armani]

Both Greig and Pinto are better players. He's either a winger on this team or traded.

Need all 3, Norris has yet to hit his stride but it will come. It’s been a tough road back for him from injuries.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Signs of life. Thought he played hard today and loved the keep at the blue line on the goal.

 

[dumbdick]

I want them to lock up pinto and greig to reasonable third line deals....then immediately trade Norris and promote them up the lineup.

 

[DylanSensFan]

I want them to lock up pinto and greig to reasonable third line deals....then immediately trade Norris and promote them up the lineup.

I would not trade Norris for a while yet. We need to get Pinto and Grieg signed to good deals, but Grieg is also not nearly as offensive as Pinto or Norris. At least not yet.

 

[Sting]

I would not trade Norris for a while yet. We need to get Pinto and Grieg signed to good deals, but Grieg is also not nearly as offensive as Pinto or Norris. At least not yet.

Really? I think Greig has very underrated hands and is a good playmaker. Great puck battles too.

Norris is a shot. That's it.

 

[Hale The Villain]

His shoulder issue is clearly effecting his ability to handle passes, which is very troubling given he makes his money based primarily off of his talent for unleashing hard accurate shots.

 

[DrEasy]

His shoulder issue is clearly effecting his ability to handle passes, which is very troubling given he makes his money based primarily off of his talent for unleashing hard accurate shots.

Yeah again today he fumbled a pass on his stick in the o-zone that should have led to a chance.

I find it strange that he can still do one-timers yet not handle passes when his intent is not to shoot.

 

[coladin]

Yeah again today he fumbled a pass on his stick in the o-zone that should have led to a chance.

I find it strange that he can still do one-timers yet not handle passes when his intent is not to shoot.

I have a feeling it is more between his ears at the moment. But his overall game is coming around

 

[Tuna99]

I would not trade Norris for a while yet. We need to get Pinto and Grieg signed to good deals, but Grieg is also not nearly as offensive as Pinto or Norris. At least not yet.

Why are fans in a rush to trade away talent when we are just starting to turn the corner. So Norris isn’t Logan Couture - that’s okay. He’s still a good player

 

[Burrowsaurus]

That third period from his yesterday was massive. I think Alfie took him aside.

 

[DueDiligence]

Weird thing with Norris is he has career 166 GP 66G and 47A. Only has 8 assists in 33 games this season and last year he only had 20 assists in 66 GP and 18A in 53GP the season before that.

If he could equal his goal and assist totals he’d be much more dangerous and noticeable. Or get shots on net more and get goals off the rebounds.

Norris is a shooter not a playmaker. That's not going to change.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I mean, it's a chat board, so speculation is to be expected, but unless we get access to his medical records and some degree of expertise on diagnosing long term shoulder issues, it seems a bit rushed.

The reality is that teams get full access to players med records before finalizing a trade, anything we (the team) know, so does the team we try to unload him to. If it is legitimately a concern based on his medical history, it's already too late. Beyond that, if it's so bad as to ruin his career, there's LTIR and insurance. So the only situation in which we're at risk is one where the injury is bad enough to nerf him as a player, but not bad enough to result in LTIR/insurance, and it has to happen in the next six seasons.

If he randomly gets bought out this summer, insurance might be a big reason why. If his shoulder was a pre-existing condition, he would not be covered. While Andlauer is clearly willing to spend, a buyout costs 12.5M spread over 12 years, while Norris is still owed 50M on his contract, which means LTIRetirement if uninsured costs whatever is left of that at the time he calls it quits.

Insurance also doesn't cover the full portion of the contract, so even if the shoulder is covered, it's probably roughly the same cost as a buyout. A buyout gives the team more flexibility than LTIR. LTIR is a nightmare for teams to deal with. A buyout is going to be cap neutral for the next four seasons, and then there is a dead cap that averages about 1.6M from 2028-2036 when the salary cap ceiling should be above 100M.

The other factor is if his injury isn't bad enough to lead to LTIRetirement, but is bad enough to hinder his play and cause him to miss time throughout the season. That would be the worst case scenario.

The point of the analysis about his buyout isn't for me to say they should buy him out or they will buy him out, but without knowing the state of his shoulder, it isn't the craziest thing to consider in a context where the buyout is motivated by the long-term ramifications of his injury, and possible LTIR concerns. It's the closest thing you're going to ever see to a get out of cap free card, and it would give the Senators a huge chunk of cap to work with over the next 4 seasons.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I am not looking to Trade Norris. At least I am not making calls to gauge interest.

Let's see if his play going forward resembles what we saw in the 3rd period yesterday. I love the internal competition.


I am going to be patient regarding any trade talk for Norris. The only question to me is when Greig ultimately replaces him at C and when they are ready to make that move more permanent. Center depth is huge to have and we have seen that first hand 2 years running.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Why are fans in a rush to trade away talent when we are just starting to turn the corner. So Norris isn’t Logan Couture - that’s okay. He’s still a good player

The idea would be to trade him now, before the league decides he's not as good as Dorion thought he'd be and is actually on a really bad contract.

I am willing to be patient, but I understand the logic of moving him now.

 

[Tuna99]

The idea would be to trade him now, before the league decides he's not as good as Dorion thought he'd be and is actually on a really bad contract.

I am willing to be patient, but I understand the logic of moving him now.

But then what? We go searching for a forward who can score 30? A find an NHL center who is young and wants to be in Ottawa?

Good teams have players that are slightly overpaid. As a consolation Timmy, Brady and Sandy are underpaid.

Just don’t understand why we are picking on Norris. He doesn’t have to be our best player and to me I like him.

DJ and Dorion oversold him you are right but that doesn’t mean as fans we should reject him because two donkeys sold us a top line center but we actually only have a very good top 6 player - he’s playing at a 28 goals/season pace witch is good

 

[Senator Stanley]

But then what? We go searching for a forward who can score 30? A find an NHL center who is young and wants to be in Ottawa?

Good teams have players that are slightly overpaid. As a consolation Timmy, Brady and Sandy are underpaid.

Just don’t understand why we are picking on Norris. He doesn’t have

He hasn't looked good. Simple as that.

Yes, he's working back from a serious injury, but I'm worried about his willingness to play physically and fully engage. Too often it's like he's playing a round of golf out there.

Combine his play with his contract and of course people are talking about him.

 

[Tuna99]

He hasn't looked good. Simple as that.

Yes, he's working back from a serious injury, but I'm worried about his willingness to play physically and fully engage. Too often it's like he's playing a round of golf out there.

Combine his play with his contract and of course people are talking about him.

He’s on a 28 goal / 82 game season pace. Hes an offensive player of course he’s not going to be Chris Neil, but overall as a top 6 players he’s good enough for me.


We are finally playing winning hockey and now we want to trade our Center depth which has been literally 6 years in the making and it’s finally healthy and winning us games and Ottawa fans want to outsmart themselves and trade a 24 year old C who ca score 30 and be on your top PP a unit.

He’s our Alex Tanguay, our Chris Drury our Milan Hejduk - the very gooddepth player that compliments the star players

 

[Micklebot]

If he randomly gets bought out this summer, insurance might be a big reason why. If his shoulder was a pre-existing condition, he would not be covered. While Andlauer is clearly willing to spend, a buyout costs 12.5M spread over 12 years, while Norris is still owed 50M on his contract, which means LTIRetirement if uninsured costs whatever is left of that at the time he calls it quits.

Insurance also doesn't cover the full portion of the contract, so even if the shoulder is covered, it's probably roughly the same cost as a buyout. A buyout gives the team more flexibility than LTIR. LTIR is a nightmare for teams to deal with. A buyout is going to be cap neutral for the next four seasons, and then there is a dead cap that averages about 1.6M from 2028-2036 when the salary cap ceiling should be above 100M.

The other factor is if his injury isn't bad enough to lead to LTIRetirement, but is bad enough to hinder his play and cause him to miss time throughout the season. That would be the worst case scenario.

The point of the analysis about his buyout isn't for me to say they should buy him out or they will buy him out, but without knowing the state of his shoulder, it isn't the craziest thing to consider in a context where the buyout is motivated by the long-term ramifications of his injury, and possible LTIR concerns. It's the closest thing you're going to ever see to a get out of cap free card, and it would give the Senators a huge chunk of cap to work with over the next 4 seasons.

So, the scenario you're suggesting is one that I don't believe has ever played out, I can't think of a player ever getting pre-emptively bought out due to health risk that had yet to materialize in an actual issue. Also, I think the pre-exisiting condition insurance scenario would only apply if the condition existed prior to signing the contract and the insurance company excluded it at that time. I don't believe that's the case here.

wrt how much insurance covers, 80% at least in most cases, unless something has changed since the last publicly available information. Buyout has the advantage of spreading it out and the wonky rules where we have some expensive years and some cheap rules. So while the cost is similar, LTIR essentially allows for the full cap hit to be used, albeit with some jumping through hoops, that's clearly preferable to having buyouts on the books.

As for the worst case scenario of a subsequent injury not being enough to LTIRetire him but enough to make him never live up to his cap hit, I feel like this is just as much a concern with almost any big contract, are we worried Pinto's surgically corrected shoulder won't hold up too? The game happens fast, anybody can have an injury derail their career, I feel like speculating that Norris specifically is at higher risk when he seems to be coming around as expected is a bit much, is it a concern, sure, but is it buyout worthy? That seems like quite the stretch.