Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[tuckerintensity]

I see a lot of Nash/vanek/staal/vinny making more than spezza/briere/backstrom etc.

I'm not up on what exactly you two are bickering about, but in the link you provided Briere and Backstrom both make more than Rick Nash on how you have that list sorted. Briere makes more than Stamkos. Both of those guys make more than guys like Heatley, Iginla, Kovalchuk.

At the end of the day, NHL teams value production. If you think they aren't talking about advanced metrics, let alone primary points when valuing players, you're out to lunch. They definitely think about all those things when building a team (and more). Maybe "old school" guys don't unless forced, but most teams, especially the best teams, certainly do.

 

[Budz]

No, I was checking a claim made on the board. It wasn't accurate.


No. That is not factual.

My point is - you believe that if it’s not in the box score, it didn’t happen.

I rest my case…

 

[Gabriel426]

Agreed, if they spend the cap properly we can still have a competitive team. Before the deadline I was hoping they’d keep some assets so that we could buy low on some young players teams were ready to give up on if we move off Marner.

Now it’s squarely going to be picking right through UFA. We certainly shouldn’t be afraid to let Marner walk if things don’t go well in the playoffs but future success hinges on managements decisions there after.

Lets say both JT and MM are gone after the summer. Which would also means Leafs got knocked out in the first round again.

Maybe Leafs can go out and get Boeser or Ehlers to fill in top 6 and have two secondary pieces to fill in mid 6 including a solid yet unspectacular 2C.

It is certainly the end of the Core5 or Big4 era, but it might be the beginning of the Cup era.

 

[JEI]

Mentally preparing for life without him.

 

[Confucius]

If Treliving let's one of our best talents in decades leave for nothing, it's a huge blunder, not a positive.

Can’t do anything since previous gm gave him Nmc and the player wants an overpayment. Let him walk

 

[Legion34]

I'm not up on what exactly you two are bickering about, but in the link you provided Briere and Backstrom both make more than Rick Nash on how you have that list sorted. Briere makes more than Stamkos. Both of those guys make more than guys like Heatley, Iginla, Kovalchuk.

At the end of the day, NHL teams value production. If you think they aren't talking about advanced metrics, let alone primary points when valuing players, you're out to lunch. They definitely think about all those things when building a team (and more). Maybe "old school" guys don't unless forced, but most teams, especially the best teams, certainly do.

It depends on the year and aav% and ufa. It’s a tough list. There are twins and teammates and different years. But if you look at

Ovy
Crosby
Malkin
Gomez
Then
Staal
Vanek

Drury
Lecavlier.


. Yes. Teams value production. Of course. They skew towards goals.

It Matthews gets paid like a 60-70 goal scorer instead of a 100 pt players

He argues that an 80 goal 20 assist player
Is worth the same contract as a 20 goal 80’assist player.


Goals get a premium
That doesn’t mean that other things don’t matter.

 

[Confucius]

Lets say both JT and MM are gone after the summer. Which would also means Leafs got knocked out in the first round again.

Maybe Leafs can go out and get Boeser or Ehlers to fill in top 6 and have two secondary pieces to fill in mid 6 including a solid yet unspectacular 2C.

It is certainly the end of the Core5 or Big4 era, but it might be the beginning of the Cup era.

If they both leave I’d roll the dice and make absolutely sure we have cap space incase McDavid pulls the same stunt in Edmonton. Hey JT did it and Mitch in all likelihood is going to do it, so never say never

It would be Karma if he went to the Islanders, another team that may overpay just to settle the score.

 

[Stringer Bell]

I’ll say one thing. If Marner walks or we let Marner walk, Matthews better return to form. Or else we’ll be yearning for first round exits within a couple years.

 

[Gabriel426]

If they both leave I’d roll the dice and make absolutely sure we have cap space incase McDavid pulls the same stunt in Edmonton. Hey JT did it and Mitch in all likelihood is going to do it, so never say never

It would be Karma if he went to the Islanders, another team that may overpay just to settle the score.

Think Oilers will trade McD to the Leafs if McD doesn’t sign with them in the first week of July.

I’ll say one thing. If Marner walks or we let Marner walk, Matthews better return to form. Or else we’ll be yearning for first round exits within a couple years.

I think Domi can fill the role in facilitating AM’s offence as he had done it in the past.

Can’t do anything since previous gm gave him Nmc and the player wants an overpayment. Let him walk

Exactly, if MM wants to leave, Tre can’t do anything about it.
You don’t pay MM 14mil to stay

 

[Stringer Bell]

Think Oilers will trade McD to the Leafs if McD doesn’t sign with them in the first week of July.


I think Domi can fill the role in facilitating AM’s offence as he had done it in the past.


Exactly, if MM wants to leave, Tre can’t do anything about it.
You don’t pay MM 14mil to stay

We shouldn't need a player to "facilitate" Auston Matthews' production. As of right now, he is the highest paid player in the league. I'm talking about being the overall leader of offensive production for the team, which as of now is Mitch Marner. I'm one of Marners' biggest critics, but it's not like I can't admit that. If Marner dropped from the lineup tonight, it would be huge because Matthews looks like a shadow of himself. Matthews returning to form doesn't necessarily mean 60 goals, it just means looking like one of the top 5-10 players in the game, which he does not. He can pot 45 and still look like one.

If Marner is gone this summer we redistribute his money throughout the line up for a more balanced look. But we still do that with the idea that we have a top 5-10 player in the league. Matthews' better get that back sorted out because if not, losing Marner will hurt a lot more than it should.

 

[Gabriel426]

We shouldn't need a player to "facilitate" Auston Matthews' production. As of right now, he is the highest paid player in the league. I'm talking about being the overall leader of offensive production for the team, which as of now is Mitch Marner. I'm one of Marners' biggest critics, but it's not like I can't admit that. If Marner dropped from the lineup tonight, it would be huge because Matthews looks like a shadow of himself. Matthews returning to form doesn't necessarily mean 60 goals, it just means looking like one of the top 5-10 players in the game, which he does not. He can pot 45 and still look like one.

If Marner is gone this summer we redistribute his money throughout the line up for a more balanced look. But we still do that with the idea that we have a top 5-10 player in the league. Matthews' better get that back sorted out because if not, losing Marner will hurt a lot more than it should.

AM always flip flop between years and that’s also why I would trade him.

 

[Hellcat]

it's crazy but I'm convinced that it's just reality has slapped people in the face. This guy really might walk and we get nothing and I think people always believed deep down he'll probably end up signing. But facing that reality is tough for fans.. I get it, no one wants to hear that a player may not want to be here.

in the same breath, Mitch cannot be upset that fans feel pissed off. It's just a shitty situation. The same people that were preaching we shouldn't sign him until after the playoffs are now the same people pissed off that he's not signing. Mitch is f***ed either way. If he signs today and they get dummied in the first round, he will be the guy who gets blamed, so why the hell would he sign now? People are only looking at it from the fan perspective and not actually being rational about the situation.

100%

I get fan frustration over 8 disappointing playoffs. I get the concept that there is only so much $$$ to go around. What I dont get is why one guy gets 90% of the vitriol from the haters, there are many people that share the blame. Mitch does not do the scouting that could have found a few cheap controllable players, that would have over performed to their contracts and helped this team in the playoffs. Mitch does not set the line up, it's the coach and analytics department that determine who plays where and for how long. Mitch does not control how much $$$ Dubas/Tre spends on talent, they manage/managed the cap. Mitch does not have the goalie pads on, he was not dog shit last year between the pipes. They see one and only one possible solution, get rid of Mitch, get more cap room, win the cup. It's juvenile and quite honesty myopic thinking that there is only one possible way to fix this team.

From Mitch's draft year forward, if you look at each draft year, there is only one person who has scored more points than Mitch and he walks on Oil. This guy alone is the problem? Okkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkie ....

Marner wants more tham daisatl

As a % of the cap in the year he signed?

 

[Gabriel426]

If MM leads the Leafs to a Cup this playoffs, I could careless if he signs with the Leafs for 16mil.

It is really put up or shut up.

Just play the game and win the Cup and nobody will give a crap how much you are making.

The fact that some, myself included, kept saying MM is not worth whatever amount all comes down to Leafs winning the Cup. Part of the reason why Leafs sucks is mainly bc our top guys-MM included are sofar proven to be a whole bunch of betas chokers. Win the Cup and all is good, until then they are chokers losers until proven otherwise.

 

[nuck]

100%

I get fan frustration over 8 disappointing playoffs. I get the concept that there is only so much $$$ to go around. What I dont get is why one guy gets 90% of the vitriol from the haters, there are many people that share the blame. Mitch does not do the scouting that could have found a few cheap controllable players, that would have over performed to their contracts and helped this team in the playoffs. Mitch does not set the line up, it's the coach and analytics department that determine who plays where and for how long. Mitch does not control how much $$$ Dubas/Tre spends on talent, they manage/managed the cap. Mitch does not have the goalie pads on, he was not dog shit last year between the pipes. They see one and only one possible solution, get rid of Mitch, get more cap room, win the cup. It's juvenile and quite honesty myopic thinking that there is only one possible way to fix this team.

From Mitch's draft year forward, if you look at each draft year, there is only one person who has scored more points than Mitch and he walks on Oil. This guy alone is the problem? Okkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkie ....



As a % of the cap in the year he signed?

On a vaguely related topic I was listening to Rich Winter and Todd Reynolds from Raze sports on a business of hockey radio segment. When they got to percentage of cap I was surprised to hear Reynolds mention "agents would all like that" and "some GMs are receptive but other don't touch the idea." From the internet I assumed that it was the norm. Not sure where Tre fits in to that.

As far Marner hate, on a fan forum where many feel the horrible cap allocation has hamstrung the lineup, him leaving nothing on the table first time around (Kyle's fault not his) and him potentially being the salary that locks them into this cap distribution for years puts a bit of a bullseye on him. Aside from the first deal Willie would be under the microscope too if Mitch was already signed and he wasn't if we heard he wouldn't negotiate because he wanted to see what he could squeeze for this summer. I think Mitch is getting the heat now mostly because there is not much else to bitch about until the playoffs start. Some people on the Laughton thread want him executed after 2 bad games . They just need a bunch of solid wins to bring back some sanity.

 

[arso40]

We shouldn't need a player to "facilitate" Auston Matthews' production. As of right now, he is the highest paid player in the league. I'm talking about being the overall leader of offensive production for the team, which as of now is Mitch Marner. I'm one of Marners' biggest critics, but it's not like I can't admit that. If Marner dropped from the lineup tonight, it would be huge because Matthews looks like a shadow of himself. Matthews returning to form doesn't necessarily mean 60 goals, it just means looking like one of the top 5-10 players in the game, which he does not. He can pot 45 and still look like one.

If Marner is gone this summer we redistribute his money throughout the line up for a more balanced look. But we still do that with the idea that we have a top 5-10 player in the league. Matthews' better get that back sorted out because if not, losing Marner will hurt a lot more than it should.

I wouldn’t go as far as saying matthews produces in spite of marner but matthews produces no matter who he plays with so I wouldn’t attribute it to marner at all we’ve seen marner needs a skill set to produce on the offensive end I don’t think him domi n bert would do too good for a stretch nor do I think him jt and holmberg would produce much either……..lol the last one was hopefully a harmless jab

 

[sxvnert]

Quick sign him to 17m.

 

[thewave]

Quick sign him to 17m.

That'll get you a 1 year deal. Caps going up next year

 

[Hellcat]

I wouldn’t go as far as saying matthews produces in spite of marner but matthews produces no matter who he plays with so I wouldn’t attribute it to marner at all we’ve seen marner needs a skill set to produce on the offensive end I don’t think him domi n bert would do too good for a stretch nor do I think him jt and holmberg would produce much either……..lol the last one was hopefully a harmless jab

Who was Marner with when Matty was injured earlier this year?

 

[arso40]

Who was Marner with when Matty was injured earlier this year?

He got the second best center on the team with the best winger after a couple games of nothing with domi and holmberg I think it was. If you caught my jab it would have made sense marners having a great season for sure but he still needs certain players to play with we can harp on nylanders lazy play or weak defence or whatever it is we complain about but he produces inspite of who he plays with not because of who he plays with marner is a great playmaker but without people to score he’s not as effective nylander and matthews will produce no matter what so of the 3 if you ask me who is the least needed I would say marner

 

[Leaf Fans]

My point is - you believe that if it’s not in the box score, it didn’t happen.

I rest my case…

I do think that for the most part when it comes to statistics though there can be changes to shots, scorers and other statistics. Stats aren't the only part of the game.

Chris Johnston literally compared the two today and again cited rantanen as a better goal scorer and that in equal markets Marner would be below him. He never once mentioned primary points. Neither have any players/gms/insiders. I drove Not a single “hockey person” has mentioned primary points in arbitration and negotiations. Ever. But you just tell us they do, and it’s all a secret. You know what NHl GMs do because 3 computers ago you looked at contracts and decided. Even though the people who actually talk to the people or Are the people who sign the contracts don’t mention it.

All of the countless hours talking about and debating contracts literally zero people ever have suggested what you are suggesting. But you know better. As always. You just decide you know things.

There is no evidence, no proof, no examples. Just trust me bro. I did the work 5 years ago.
You have zero evidence that’s what they do. You just keep saying that you analyzed data and came up with the right answer. I literally taught stats in grad school. I can tell you, most people suck at them. What if you don’t know what you are doing? You expect people to believe you are the authority on all things contracts because you think you know stats? Oooookay


Here.

2012 NHL Salary Rankings

Listing the top salaries, cap hits, cash, earnings, contracts, and bonuses, for all active NHL players.

www.spotrac.com

Look at the sport trac data. Go back to 2011-2012.

You will see a lot of goal scorers. Who is a goal scorer and who is a playmaker in the lists. It’s not perfect and some playmakers will make more than some goal scorers based on ufa/twins etc.

I see a lot of Nash/vanek/staal/vinny making more than spezza/briere/backstrom etc.

Heck Marleau made more % aav than Thornton.

Rick Nash was a top 5 cap hit in the league one year with 57 pts. He was paid as a rocket winner not a 57 pt player

NHl GMs value goals. They always have more than assists. They don’t differentiate between primary and secondary assists in contracts. It’s pretty easy



And signing a completely fair market value contract.

I had no problem with the contracts.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Chris Johnston literally compared the two today

I don't care what Chris Johnston says.

You will see a lot of goal scorers.

Lots of playmakers too. McDavid himself had a heavy playmaking skew when he signed. Didn't stop him from getting offered 17.67%.

Heck Marleau made more % aav than Thornton.

That's not even true. Thornton got 17.1% and then 14.3% through the early cap era.

You have zero evidence that’s what they do. You just keep saying that you analyzed data and came up with the right answer. I literally taught stats in grad school. I can tell you, most people suck at them. What if you don’t know what you are doing?

You are the only one that doesn't have evidence of their claim. If you taught stats, you would know that what I did was not that complicated. You're free to put in the work and verify. Or you can just believe whatever you want. Personally, I'm going to believe what the contract history data says.

NHl GMs value goals. They always have more than assists. They don’t differentiate between primary and secondary assists in contracts.

NHL GMs go far more in depth than you seem to think. They value offensive impact, regardless of the form it comes in, and they value the players who provide it, regardless of their playstyle.

 

[Legion34]

I don't care what Chris Johnston says.

Lots of playmakers too. McDavid himself had a heavy playmaking skew when he signed. Didn't stop him from getting offered 17.67%.

That's not even true. Thornton got 17.1% and then 14.3% through the early cap era.

You are the only one that doesn't have evidence of their claim. If you taught stats, you would know that what I did was not that complicated. You're free to put in the work and verify. Or you can just believe whatever you want. Personally, I'm going to believe what the contract history data says.

NHL GMs value offensive impact of all forms. Primary assists are a real thing, whether you want to accept it or not.

Exactly. You don’t care what people who spend all day talking to nhl players agents and people who actually signed contract and negotiated bonuses into the cba say. Because you pretend to have done a fake study. Which you think shows that NHL gms did what you think they should. Despite never ever mentioning it.

If you look at the actual signings in SJ Marleau signed for higher percent. You can sort by % at time of signing.

You can see 1 playmaker in the lists in the early era. Gomez.

no one knows what you did. You say you looked at primary assists and that was predictive of contracts. What you say you did and what the data say are not the same. You show the data. You haven’t.

 

[notDatsyuk]

should have traded Nylander when he had two years at 6.5 left, his value would have been so high

my guess they'll resign marner for 8 x 13.5 now , losing him for nothing is not a good look unless they turn it into pionk and bennett

True, but considering how badly the team has struggled in finding bargain-priced players to balance the overpaid ones, it's a good thing they didn't.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You don’t care what people who spend all day talking to nhl players agents and people who actually signed contract and negotiated bonuses into the cba say.

I don't care what media personalities looking for clicks say.

If you look at the actual signings in SJ Marleau signed for higher percent.

No he didn't. Coming out of the lockout, Thornton signed for 17.1% vs. 10.68%. Then 14.3% vs. 12.5%. Etc. In fact, every time they signed in San Jose, Thornton got a higher percentage. You're literally countering your own argument.

You say you looked at primary assists and that was predictive of contracts.

It's amazing that we've been having this discussion for days and you still can't get what I said right. At this point, if you want to believe something there is no evidence of, go right ahead.

 

[Smif]

He got the second best center on the team with the best winger after a couple games of nothing with domi and holmberg I think it was. If you caught my jab it would have made sense marners having a great season for sure but he still needs certain players to play with we can harp on nylanders lazy play or weak defence or whatever it is we complain about but he produces inspite of who he plays with not because of who he plays with marner is a great playmaker but without people to score he’s not as effective nylander and matthews will produce no matter what so of the 3 if you ask me who is the least needed I would say marner

Marner has proven it this season that he produces no matter who his center is.