Player Discussion Josh Norris (C) 6’-1” - Part 3

[Sensinitis]

Not being able to handle passes is more of a timing / being rusty thing. It's a common theme when you come back from a long time off.

I highly doubt it's a shoulder thing since he's been hitting, taking hits, falling on the ice, taking one timers and doing faceoffs with relative ease so far.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I highly doubt there is a trade situation that doesn't include the Senators taking back another player who has issues or taking back a lesser bad contract. An idea I proposed in the trade thread that got roasted was Dubois for Norris, and I highly doubt LA would do that, even with Dubois playing poorly.

It's not like we are going to get a 1st++ for a player with a ton of money owed and a history of shoulder issues. I think his current level of play ties back to the shoulder issues and the fact that he missed a huge chunk of hockey over the last two seasons. I don't think it is fair to say that he isn't the player we thought he was, like he had one good season he could never replicate. It's an external factor holding him back.

With that said, he did have a history of shoulder injuries at the time the contract was signed. So that has to factor into any evaluation about whether it was or was not a good move.

 

[Big Muddy]

With Norris, Grieg and Pinto, we have a lot depth at center and a good forward group. As JM said in his interview, it allows him to play our so called 3rd line against the opponents top 2 lines which leaves a more favorable match up for one of our top 2 lines.

I'll enjoy what we have in all three for the moment. Maybe they can get Pinto & Grieg signed to reasonable bridge contracts, and with a rising cap, perhaps keep the band together - who knows? I'm thinking of extending our competitive window with what we've drafted. Maybe they can, or maybe they can't, but in the meantime I'll just enjoy what we have.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

So, the scenario you're suggesting is one that I don't believe has ever played out, I can't think of a player ever getting pre-emptively bought out due to health risk that had yet to materialize in an actual issue. Also, I think the pre-exisiting condition insurance scenario would only apply if the condition existed prior to signing the contract and the insurance company excluded it at that time. I don't believe that's the case here.

wrt how much insurance covers, 80% at least in most cases, unless something has changed since the last publicly available information. Buyout has the advantage of spreading it out and the wonky rules where we have some expensive years and some cheap rules. So while the cost is similar, LTIR essentially allows for the full cap hit to be used, albeit with some jumping through hoops, that's clearly preferable to having buyouts on the books.

As for the worst case scenario of a subsequent injury not being enough to LTIRetire him but enough to make him never live up to his cap hit, I feel like this is just as much a concern with almost any big contract, are we worried Pinto's surgically corrected shoulder won't hold up too? The game happens fast, anybody can have an injury derail their career, I feel like speculating that Norris specifically is at higher risk when he seems to be coming around as expected is a bit much, is it a concern, sure, but is it buyout worthy? That seems like quite the stretch.

The comparable situations you would have to look for would be buyouts that were expedited by the player turning 26 or took place due to the u26 buyout formula being very advantageous.

Colin White is an example. Cody Hodgson is another one.

You're not going to find many comparable scenarios, because this would be a very unique scenario where a young player this early into a massive contract has what might be chronic injury issues that could interfere with their ability to live up to the cap hit, and the new ownership/management are not the ones who acquired the player or signed the contract. Again, we're assuming in this hypothetical that they have reason to believe the shoulder will be a long-term issue, but Norris is technically healthy during the off season and can be bought out.

 

[Micklebot]

The comparable situations you would have to look for would be buyouts that were expedited by the player turning 26 or took place due to the u26 buyout formula being very advantageous.

Colin White is an example. Cody Hodgson is another one.

You're not going to find many comparable scenarios, because this would be a very unique scenario where a young player this early into a massive contract has what might be chronic injury issues that could interfere with their ability to live up to the cap hit, and the new ownership/management are not the ones who acquired the player or signed the contract. Again, we're assuming in this hypothetical that they have reason to believe the shoulder will be a long-term issue, but Norris is technically healthy during the off season and can be bought out.

Those aren't at all comparable though, those are just guys that got signed to big contracts, then regressed to the point that they clearly weren't living up to it and got bought out. Hodgson scored 13 pts the year before getting bought out, and was diagnosed with a heart arrhythmia causing shortness of breath. White was a frequent healthy scratch after getting a few years to try and prove he could bounce back.

Nobody is going to buy out a player because they might turn into a pumpkin...

 

[Micklebot]

Not being able to handle passes is more of a timing / being rusty thing. It's a common theme when you come back from a long time off.

I highly doubt it's a shoulder thing since he's been hitting, taking hits, falling on the ice, taking one timers and doing faceoffs with relative ease so far.

He isn't avoiding contact anyways, that's for sure.

For all the criticism of him not looking good (and it's not untrue), his underlying numbers have been solid at 5v5


52.17 GF%, 56.82 xGF%, 54.59 SCF%, 55.64 HDCF%,

his shots /60 are up too, individual scoring chance and xG are close,

I'm not concerned, I think we'll see him back to form before the end of the year, and unfortunately (depending on how you look at it) he and the team will push us out of a prime draft spot...

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Those aren't at all comparable though, those are just guys that got signed to big contracts, then regressed to the point that they clearly weren't living up to it and got bought out. Hodgson scored 13 pts the year before getting bought out, and was diagnosed with a heart arrhythmia causing shortness of breath. White was a frequent healthy scratch after getting a few years to try and prove he could bounce back.

Nobody is going to buy out a player because they might turn into a pumpkin...

No, the argument is that if they know his shoulder is likely to be an issue long-term, they could be tempted to cut bait this offseason because it is the last offseason where they can get out of 73 percent of his cap hit owed, and more importantly have virtually nothing on the books from his buyout for the next four seasons (six figure cap credit in years 1-3, six figure hit in year 4).

They have a valid issue to mull over. I'm not saying they are going to pick a player and for no reason project that he will decline in production or effectiveness and randomly buy him out.

It is a unique situation. To reiterate, I don't expect him to get bought out, but if he does get bought out it's not exactly going to shock me. Unless his shoulder is not a problem, there is enough incentive for them to consider it in a scenario where there is no trade market for him (without taking back useless cap). This being the last offseason where they get the U26 buyout formula would be what causes the buyout to be expedited, when in a perfect world you would like to see how he plays next year after a full season of recovery.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Those aren't at all comparable though, those are just guys that got signed to big contracts, then regressed to the point that they clearly weren't living up to it and got bought out. Hodgson scored 13 pts the year before getting bought out, and was diagnosed with a heart arrhythmia causing shortness of breath. White was a frequent healthy scratch after getting a few years to try and prove he could bounce back.

Nobody is going to buy out a player because they might turn into a pumpkin...

That's not the full story with Hodgson. He retired due to what was later determined to be a degenerative condition which caused various issues, including muscle tears. It would be akin to us learning in a few years that Norris has a degenerative condition that causes recurring shoulder issues (which I'm not speculating is the case).

Hodgson’s one-year deal with the Predators ended up being his last NHL contract, as he discovered he had malignant hyperthermia (MH), a degenerative condition which produces rigidity in muscles, along with coronary stress. “I tore five muscles my final year (in Nashville). I’d bend over and the muscles would tear. It got pretty scary at the end, to tell you the truth”

If you look at his history, it's pretty clear that this was an issue for him dating back to juniors - they just didn't know it yet. He missed a full CHL season with what was thought to be a back injury, but was later determined to be a muscle tear.

Initially, Hodgson’s back injury was diagnosed by the Canucks’ medical staff as a herniated disk and he was expected to make a quick recovery, but after months of pain and treatment, it was finally revealed to be a torn muscle.

It's an interesting story - Cody Hodgson: A Promising Career Cut Short.

 

[Xspyrit]

He isn't avoiding contact anyways, that's for sure.

For all the criticism of him not looking good (and it's not untrue), his underlying numbers have been solid at 5v5


52.17 GF%, 56.82 xGF%, 54.59 SCF%, 55.64 HDCF%,

his shots /60 are up too, individual scoring chance and xG are close,

I'm not concerned, I think we'll see him back to form before the end of the year, and unfortunately (depending on how you look at it) he and the team will push us out of a prime draft spot...

Very short sample size but since the team has started to "play the right way" on January 11th, Norris only played 2 games but among the Sens 14 forwards at ES :

73.47 CF/60 (6th), 33.76 CA/60 (5th), 68.52 CF% (5th)
35.74 SF/60 (8th), 9.93 SA/60 (3th), 78.26 SF% (2nd)
3.45 xGF/60 (8th), 0.97 xGA/60 (8th), 78.09 xGF% (7th)

And we didn't play the Sharks but the Jets (1st OA in P%) and Flyers (13th OA in P%). If this trend continues then there's absolutely no problem with Norris. We just need him to start converting more and get points on the board

 

[Icelevel]

We have the right number of forwards not too many. Move Norris to the right wing finally if you have to. That’s where he can make use of one of the teams most lethal weapons, his one timer.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

His shoulder issue is clearly effecting his ability to handle passes, which is very troubling given he makes his money based primarily off of his talent for unleashing hard accurate shots.

Handling passes is an issue for every player right now.

 

[DylanSensFan]

Really? I think Greig has very underrated hands and is a good playmaker. Great puck battles too.

Norris is a shot. That's it.

Norris is a lot more than that. His play yesterday was part of the reason we won the game. I was hard on him a few games ago, but I was wrong.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

The idea would be to trade him now, before the league decides he's not as good as Dorion thought he'd be and is actually on a really bad contract.

I am willing to be patient, but I understand the logic of moving him now.

You don't think teams are aware of his regression since that big year? Regardless of whether it's skill, effort, or injury, he isn't worth anything close to what he was worth when he signed that deal, we're not the only team that sees that.

To get the most out of him on a trade, you'd actually want him to rebuild some of that value under new coaching to demonstrate that he's actually a good two way forward. The trade value of most of our players have decreased over the past couple years because of they're poor play.

Norris is a good 2C, who is probably worth about 7M on a deal. As a huge Norris fan, I've said from the beginning we've overpaid for him. This might be the absolute worst time to trade him though. You either keep him because he's going to get better or wait till the cap goes up so his contract is more palatable.

 

[PlayOn]

You don't think teams are aware of his regression since that big year? Regardless of whether it's skill, effort, or injury, he isn't worth anything close to what he was worth when he signed that deal, we're not the only team that sees that.

To get the most out of him on a trade, you'd actually want him to rebuild some of that value under new coaching to demonstrate that he's actually a good two way forward. The trade value of most of our players have decreased over the past couple years because of they're poor play.

Norris is a good 2C, who is probably worth about 7M on a deal. As a huge Norris fan, I've said from the beginning we've overpaid for him. This might be the absolute worst time to trade him though. You either keep him because he's going to get better or wait till the cap goes up so his contract is more palatable.

What regression? He signed in the summer of 2022 and played 8 games last year, and now around 30 this year. There hasn’t even been time for him to regress, he’s been hurt.

If he’s worth 7M why trade him at all? That means he’s overpaid by 1M by those standards, all the more reason to keep him as it’s hardly crippling.

 

[OD99]

No, the argument is that if they know his shoulder is likely to be an issue long-term, they could be tempted to cut bait this offseason because it is the last offseason where they can get out of 73 percent of his cap hit owed, and more importantly have virtually nothing on the books from his buyout for the next four seasons (six figure cap credit in years 1-3, six figure hit in year 4).

They have a valid issue to mull over. I'm not saying they are going to pick a player and for no reason project that he will decline in production or effectiveness and randomly buy him out.

It is a unique situation. To reiterate, I don't expect him to get bought out, but if he does get bought out it's not exactly going to shock me. Unless his shoulder is not a problem, there is enough incentive for them to consider it in a scenario where there is no trade market for him (without taking back useless cap). This being the last offseason where they get the U26 buyout formula would be what causes the buyout to be expedited, when in a perfect world you would like to see how he plays next year after a full season of recovery.

If we fired GMPD just to have SS buy-out Norris we might as well completely give up, because this management group is worse than the previous one.

Norris didn't get to train properly all off-season and missed all of training camp while coming back from an injury that, at the beginning of the season at least, suggested he may have had some mental hurdles to overcome as well.

He isn't hurting the team at all, just not scoring at his regular pace, but still an effective player. He needs to be given the benefit of the doubt for a full off season and start next season fresh. I expect he finds his groove in the 2nd half of the season anyway - he is getting chances but they aren't going in like they usually do.

 

[bicboi64]

The logic to move him isn't because he's crap. It'd be because we have depth at that position and can risk running with Pinto or Greig at C and the capspace Norris would free up can be used to make our defense less crap.

Having said that, if we move Norris, it has to be a solid hockey trade and not a give away.

 

[PlayOn]

The logic to move him isn't because he's crap. It'd be because we have depth at that position and can risk running with Pinto or Greig at C and the capspace Norris would free up can be used to make our defense less crap.

Having said that, if we move Norris, it has to be a solid hockey trade and not a give away.

But we have cap space to make our defense less crap without trading Norris. The bigger challenge will be getting a solid RD to sign here or waive a NTC considering everyone seems to have one these days, not so much cap space.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

If we fired GMPD just to have SS buy-out Norris we might as well completely give up, because this management group is worse than the previous one.

Norris didn't get to train properly all off-season and missed all of training camp while coming back from an injury that, at the beginning of the season at least, suggested he may have had some mental hurdles to overcome as well.

He isn't hurting the team at all, just not scoring at his regular pace, but still an effective player. He needs to be given the benefit of the doubt for a full off season and start next season fresh. I expect he finds his groove in the 2nd half of the season anyway - he is getting chances but they aren't going in like they usually do.

Norris is not getting bought out, come on

 

[aragorn]

Norrris is a top six C, he plays a 200' game, is excellent in the faceoff circle & can play the PK/PP. He should NOT be traded.

Pinto has all the same attributes that Norris has especially defensively & both have great shots from the circle. I expect that Norris is the better pt producer.

Greig is another 200' player who can play wing or centre, also seems to have good playmaking instincts & drives the net. Ostapchuk is another 200' player who can play centre or wing & is very good defensively & very hard to play against.

 

[OD99]

Norris is not getting bought out, come on

I agree. I was replying to the poster who kept mentioning it. That time was running out on a great buy out deal.

Insanity to even dream that scenario up.

 

[BondraTime]

Norris is somewhere between worthy of a buy-out (with what his contract is, and the replacement value the Sens have/could get) and just let him trug along until it sorts itself out or becomes a complete roadblock

I wasn't a fan of the contract when it was given out, and definitely am not now, but we don't need to rush to exile him. He's not pulling guys down or anything.

He's a great player to have on your team, he's not a guy that is being bought out to be buried. He's just not a great player at 8 million a year and 52 million owed over the next 6 years.

A buyout would cost the Sens 17 million, 35 million in savings, over a 12 year period.

Sens would get an extra 100k on the cap for the next 3 years, and then be saddled with a 1.5 million cap until 2035.

Aside from the real money savings, which is a gigantic amount, there isn't to much appealing there.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Knave]

Norris is somewhere between worthy of a buy-out (with what his contract is, and the replacement value the Sens have/could get) and just let him trug along until it sorts itself out or becomes a complete roadblock

I wasn't a fan of the contract when it was given out, and definitely am not now, but we don't need to rush to exile him. He's not pulling guys down or anything.

He's a great player to have on your team, he's not a guy that is being bought out to be buried. He's just not a great player at 8 million a year and 52 million owed over the next 6 years.

A buyout would cost the Sens 17 million, 35 million in savings, over a 12 year period.

Sens would get an extra 100k on the cap for the next 3 years, and then be saddled with a 1.5 million cap until 2035.

Aside from the real money savings, which is a gigantic amount, there isn't to much appealing there.

I agree with this. I said similar things at the time of signing him that this was the contract I was most concerned about. I understand 35 goals in 66 games but we paid a hefty amount with term for one season. And I get it. Maybe the injuries and time off are playing a factor but it's a risky contract and it's not paying off in his first year back.

He's our Brian Campbell if you're the Chicago Blackhawks. He's not a bad player by any means and I don't want him off the team. But his cap hit is high. If you can't win with his contract on the books as a GM then you're not a very good GM. Nobody is perfect. Every team including Stanley Cup winners has a contract they don't like even if the player is a contributor. You find ways to work around it.

If there's an opportunity to deal him over the next couple of years (did he get a NTC?) then you have to look at it seriously.

 

[bicboi64]

Nice to see that Norris is slowly, but gradually getting back to form. Hope the goals start coming in

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Nice to see that Norris is slowly, but gradually getting back to form. Hope the goals start coming in

His underlying numbers are better than his play. The eye test in the past several games definitely does not agree with the underlying numbers. I am talking about his compete level and his willingness to support his team mates in puck battles .. I really don't look at his goals