Is it time for a rebuild ?

[Linkens Mastery]

I don't think the vets are that bad yet. We have played without Vladdy and RoR for large stretches and were still competitive. You cannot tank playing .500 hockey, or even .425. You need to play .325-.350 hockey. I don't think a team with Thomas, Kyrou. Buchnevich, Schenn, Saad, Faulk and Payako can be that bad.

Kyrou and Buchnevich are on an 82 point season pace, Thomas is on a 73 pace, Schenn 60 pt pace. Look at the teams truly vying for Bedard and tell me who has that much talent. Chicago has Kane who is playing poorly but is truly awful after him and maybe Domi and Jones. Anaheim has Zegras, Terry and Fowler on D. None of which are scoring at Thomas' pace, much less Kyrou's. Arizona has Keller, Schmaltz and Chychrun as their best 3. San Jose has Karlsson, Meier and Hertl, Couture and then nobody. Our core minus all the UFAs is better than any of them.

Our main problem right now is not those veterans but the x's and o's schemes we are utilizing. Even if we tank, we need to fix that asap. Do we want to instill that kind of awful hockey in our young guys we draft for the rebuild? Once we fix the defensive x's and o's, will our vets be as bad as they have been? Once we fix our D, will Binnington?

So its not only an issue of not having the finances to suffer exteneded poor play. That's part of it. But can we be that bad with the quality of all our solid players that are signed to long term contracts?

This is a big reason I'm coming around quickly to a possibility of a Krug Buy-out. I think having a defense consisting of a top pair LHD, Parayko, Faulk, Leddy, and Scandella with a coach that has a decent defensive scheme could work.

A Krug buyout this offseason would look like this according to Capfriendly

Year​	Cap Hit​
23-24​	500k​
24-25​	500k​
25-26​	2.5mil​
26-27​	3mil​
27-28​	2.5mil​
28-29​	2.5mil​
29-30​	2.5mil​
30-31​	2.5mil​

With the cap reportedly going back up soon that would definitely be do-able.

 

[Xerloris]

This is a big reason I'm coming around quickly to a possibility of a Krug Buy-out. I think having a defense consisting of a top pair LHD, Parayko, Faulk, Leddy, and Scandella with a coach that has a decent defensive scheme could work.

A Krug buyout this offseason would look like this according to Capfriendly

Year​	Cap Hit​
23-24​	500k​
24-25​	500k​
25-26​	2.5mil​
26-27​	3mil​
27-28​	2.5mil​
28-29​	2.5mil​
29-30​	2.5mil​
30-31​	2.5mil​

With the cap reportedly going back up soon that would definitely be do-able.

I don't know why you guys bother with this buyout shit. The Blues have never and probably will never buy anyone out. Especially Krug, we're not going to pay someone that can run a PP the way he does not to play for us.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I don't know why you guys bother with this buyout shit. The Blues have never and probably will never buy anyone out. Especially Krug, we're not going to pay someone that can run a PP the way he does not to play for us.

I know Army won't. I'm just mainly talking about it to talk about it.

 

[tfriede2]

I don't know why you guys bother with this buyout shit. The Blues have never and probably will never buy anyone out. Especially Krug, we're not going to pay someone that can run a PP the way he does not to play for us.

Other than McKee, ages ago. Agreed that it’s not worth discussing, though

 

[Celtic Note]

It might not be worth talking about right now, but in a few years time, I could see buyouts happening. Especially if we have a new GM by then. But also even if Army is still here, if we are bad, does Stillman want to pay the full weight of a bad contract or is it better to buy it out and find some actual savings?

 

[Celtic Note]

I don't think the vets are that bad yet. We have played without Vladdy and RoR for large stretches and were still competitive. You cannot tank playing .500 hockey, or even .425. You need to play .325-.350 hockey. I don't think a team with Thomas, Kyrou. Buchnevich, Schenn, Saad, Faulk and Payako can be that bad.

Kyrou and Buchnevich are on an 82 point season pace, Thomas is on a 73 pace, Schenn 60 pt pace. Look at the teams truly vying for Bedard and tell me who has that much talent. Chicago has Kane who is playing poorly but is truly awful after him and maybe Domi and Jones. Anaheim has Zegras, Terry and Fowler on D. None of which are scoring at Thomas' pace, much less Kyrou's. Arizona has Keller, Schmaltz and Chychrun as their best 3. San Jose has Karlsson, Meier and Hertl, Couture and then nobody. Our core minus all the UFAs is better than any of them.

Our main problem right now is not those veterans but the x's and o's schemes we are utilizing. Even if we tank, we need to fix that asap. Do we want to instill that kind of awful hockey in our young guys we draft for the rebuild? Once we fix the defensive x's and o's, will our vets be as bad as they have been? Once we fix our D, will Binnington?

So its not only an issue of not having the finances to suffer exteneded poor play. That's part of it. But can we be that bad with the quality of all our solid players that are signed to long term contracts?

I hear what you are saying and I agree it’s not ideal, but I still think you can rebuild without being the worst team.

The Blues and Bruins didn’t need generational talent to win. Although it certainly would be an easier path. You can win with players that are the next level below and you can find those guys outside of the top couple of picks.

The lottery helps in that area if you get lucky. And it’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility, but I am not one who wants to bank on luck.

If the Blues really want to tank, they will trade at least one of their D. They could also move Saad and Buch if they want to go for the full nose dive.

There are ways to get there. They won’t be ideal, but there are ways.

Those team you mention are bad, but they won’t always be bad. Some seasons some of the will over perform. Some of those teams will move forward as a result of growth. And undoubtedly, the Blues will at some point underperform as a result of a losing culture of they truly rebuild.

 

[Majorityof1]

I hear what you are saying and I agree it’s not ideal, but I still think you can rebuild without being the worst team.

The Blues and Bruins didn’t need generational talent to win. Although it certainly would be an easier path. You can win with players that are the next level below and you can find those guys outside of the top couple of picks.

The lottery helps in that area if you get lucky. And it’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility, but I am not one who wants to bank on luck.

If the Blues really want to tank, they will trade at least one of their D. They could also move Saad and Buch if they want to go for the full nose dive.

There are ways to get there. They won’t be ideal, but there are ways.

Those team you mention are bad, but they won’t always be bad. Some seasons some of the will over perform. Some of those teams will move forward as a result of growth. And undoubtedly, the Blues will at some point underperform as a result of a losing culture of they truly rebuild.

I don't want to rely on luck. If we can trade off some of our longer contracts, than we can tank. I'm just not sure how realistic that is.

As for these teams improving, absolutely, but other teams will be just as bad. Here is the point capture range of the worst through 5th worst team the last several years.

2023 (right now)- ,337 - .390
2022 - .335 - .384
2021- .330 - .429
2020 - .275 - .472
2019 - .390 - .463
2018 - .378 - ,435

So even if the current bad teams get better, there will always be a couple of teams in the .350-450 range. You can rebuild finishing bottom 6-10, but it is far from ideal. I wouldn't want to plan on it. Its pretty much what Vancouver has done by always going for the playoffs and mostly falling short. They got a couple #5 OA but its not enough to make them a contender. They are looking to have a guranteed top 10 pick again this year.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I don't want to rely on luck. If we can trade off some of our longer contracts, than we can tank. I'm just not sure how realistic that is.

As for these teams improving, absolutely, but other teams will be just as bad. Here is the point capture range of the worst through 5th worst team the last several years.

2023 (right now)- ,337 - .390
2022 - .335 - .384
2021- .330 - .429
2020 - .275 - .472
2019 - .390 - .463
2018 - .378 - ,435

So even if the current bad teams get better, there will always be a couple of teams in the .350-450 range. You can rebuild finishing bottom 6-10, but it is far from ideal. I wouldn't want to plan on it. Its pretty much what Vancouver has done by always going for the playoffs and mostly falling short. They got a couple #5 OA but its not enough to make them a contender. They are looking to have a guranteed top 10 pick again this year.

Canucks are just stupid. They drafted some top players but keep shooting them selves in foot with stupid trades and awful contracts. Boston built top team without high picks. Carolina hasn’t had many. Nor has Dallas. But they have drafted and developed well and made smart moves.

 

[Majorityof1]

Canucks are just stupid. They drafted some top players but keep shooting them selves in foot with stupid trades and awful contracts. Boston built top 10 without high picks. Carolina hasn’t had many. Nor has Dallas. But they have drafted and developed well and made smart moves.

When did Boston rebuild? They haven't missed the playoffs since 06-07. Carolina has had a 5th OA and 2nd OA in the past 7 years and they missed the playoffs for 11 of 12 year stretch. Dallas missed the playoffs for 8 out of 10 years. They also drafted Heiskenen at #3OA. I don't want a decade long rebuild before things start popping with 10-15 OA picks and we finally get our one high pick.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

When did Boston rebuild? They haven't missed the playoffs since 06-07. Carolina has had a 5th OA and 2nd OA in the past 7 years and they missed the playoffs for 11 of 12 year stretch. Dallas missed the playoffs for 8 out of 10 years. They also drafted Heiskenen at #3OA. I don't want a decade long rebuild before things start popping with 10-15 OA picks and we finally get our one high pick.

I just meant they are all top teams and don’t have bunch of high picks. We don’t need to pick in top 5 for 5 years to contend again.

 

[Majorityof1]

I just meant they are all top teams and don’t have bunch of high picks. We don’t need to pick in top 5 for 5 years to contend again.

Agreed. But if we want to rebuild, trade everyone, sign nobody, and tear it down to the studs, then we will either be bad for years like Dallas and Carolina, or we need high picks. You don't turn it around quickly with 10-15 picks. They take longer to develop and are more hit or miss.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Agreed. But if we want to rebuild, trade everyone, sign nobody, and tear it down to the studs, then we will either be bad for years like Dallas and Carolina, or we need high picks. You don't turn it around quickly with 10-15 picks. They take longer to develop and are more hit or miss.

DA doesn’t want to do that. We will trade UFA and maybe 1 guy on longterm contract, but that is it I think. He wants to be back in playoffs sooner than later and you and I both know that won’t happen if he takes It down to studs.

 

[Majorityof1]

DA doesn’t want to do that. We will trade UFA and maybe 1 guy on longterm contract, but that is it I think. He wants to be back in playoffs sooner than later and you and I both know that won’t happen if he takes It down to studs.

Agreed. I was arguing why a rebuild is not an option. Kyrou, Schenn Thomas etc make it hard to be bad enough to rebuild quick. Army and ownership being unlikely to want the lowered revenues from tanking make a long rebuild unlikely. So tough as it is, we need to try to retool on the fly with a one or two year down time max.

 

[Mike Liut]

Once the UFA’s are moved, I don’t see how we won’t be drafting in the top 10 these next 3 years. Which is fine by me. Then the turnaround starts.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Once the UFA’s are moved, I don’t see how we won’t be drafting in the top 10 these next 3 years. Which is fine by me. Then the turnaround starts.

That's because you are only looking at what we are losing, not what we could be gaining afterwards via trade and/or free agency.

Say Snuggy turns pro at the end of the year/beginning of next and explodes into the NHL. Or if Neighbors continues into a solid middle 6 complimentary piece. Or we are able to trade some dead weight and replace them with a free agent or trade piece.

 

[Mike Liut]

That's because you are only looking at what we are losing, not what we could be gaining afterwards via trade and/or free agency.

Say Snuggy turns pro at the end of the year/beginning of next and explodes into the NHL. Or if Neighbors continues into a solid middle 6 complimentary piece. Or we are able to trade some dead weight and replace them with a free agent or trade piece.

I just don’t see us being better than this team which will be drafting in the top 10. We are talking about subtracting ROR, Tarasenko, Barbs and possibly Acciari

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I just don’t see us being better than this team which will be drafting in the top 10. We are talking about subtracting ROR, Tarasenko, Barbs and possibly Acciari

Again, you are only thinking of subtractions while ignoring the possibilities of additions. Army makes the Majority of his moves via trades. RoR was a trade, Buchnevich was a trade, Schenn was a trade, Faulk was a trade, Jbo was a trade. Could the Blues be a bottom 10 team for the next 5 years? Sure, any team could. But they just as well could retool, just like the did with RoR, Perron, Bozak, and Maroon and get right back to being a playoff team.

 

[Mike Liut]

Again, you are only thinking of subtractions while ignoring the possibilities of additions. Army makes the Majority of his moves via trades. RoR was a trade, Buchnevich was a trade, Schenn was a trade, Faulk was a trade, Jbo was a trade. Could the Blues be a bottom 10 team for the next 5 years? Sure, any team could. But they just as well could retool, just like the did with RoR, Perron, Bozak, and Maroon and get right back to being a playoff team.

I just see too much going out, and a flawed D. That’s why I’m giving it 3 years. If we can hit on these picks and possibly bring in a few players, we could be back in contention

 

[TheDizee]

rebuild vs retool depends on whether or not you can get alot of these people (parayko, krug, fault, binner, schenn) to play up to their contracts. if not, we will suck for a long time as they are basically unmovable.

nobody on this team making a big price is living up to their potential this season. the worst thing is i see nobody on this core that is suitable captain material. thats a big issue as well.

 

[Xerloris]

I have been a fan for 40+ years and I have seen some f***ing bad hockey from this team and still stuck around. Now that we have an owner that cares I see no reason anyone would abandon them now for going through a rough couple of years. Especially after we finally got that f***ing cup.

rebuild vs retool depends on whether or not you can get alot of these people (parayko, krug, fault, binner, schenn) to play up to their contracts. if not, we will suck for a long time as they are basically unmovable.

nobody on this team making a big price is living up to their potential this season. the worst thing is i see nobody on this core that is suitable captain material. thats a big issue as well.

Schenn or Faulk and I lean towards Schenn.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

rebuild vs retool depends on whether or not you can get alot of these people (parayko, krug, fault, binner, schenn) to play up to their contracts. if not, we will suck for a long time as they are basically unmovable.

nobody on this team making a big price is living up to their potential this season. the worst thing is i see nobody on this core that is suitable captain material. thats a big issue as well.

Im eager to see how we look with new coaching.

 

[TheDizee]

I have been a fan for 40+ years and I have seen some f***ing bad hockey from this team and still stuck around. Now that we have an owner that cares I see no reason anyone would abandon them now for going through a rough couple of years. Especially after we finally got that f***ing cup.



Schenn or Faulk and I lean towards Schenn.

schenn i guess but his recent play certainly isnt very inspiring IMO

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Im eager to see how we look with new coaching.

I think there will need to be a coaching change, but when I looked at the line-up for tonight's game I realized they're not going to be winning against good teams.

But they play even worse than that.

Its OK to stink down the stretch and get a better draft pick from the standpoint of the draft. But as we've seen with teams like Ottawa and Edmonton, it can be really hard to establish a winning culture after you psychologically accept losing at any point.

 

[Xerloris]

I think there will need to be a coaching change, but when I looked at the line-up for tonight's game I realized they're not going to be winning against good teams.

But they play even worse than that.

Its OK to stink down the stretch and get a better draft pick from the standpoint of the draft. But as we've seen with teams like Ottawa and Edmonton, it can be really hard to establish a winning culture after you psychologically accept losing at any point.

I think actually having a defensive coach that's not f***ing stupid would do wonders for fixing our team. I don't think one or two years of top 10 picks will create a losing culture but doing it the way we're doing it right now sure as f*** will. It's like there is no game plan at all, just go out there and do your thing guys, have fun!

 

[Vitto79]

Not a blues fan but outside perspective is no
It’s likely a good thing they don’t make the playoffs And sell high on all UFAs
Don’t make the red wings mistake of resigning guys of past glory
Get picks now and use cap space on a guy like Horvat