Is it time for a rebuild ?

[PocketNines]

There's an argument, and Armstrong specifically made it and I think he is fully delusional, that there is a floor with players the likes of Kyrou and Thomas. Oh really? if that's the case what are we watching?

We went through a long period where NHL average save percentage had climbed up into even .915 league wide and PPG players had become very rare. It is not those days any more. A team can absolutely have two PPG players and be abysmal. Look at them right now.

 

[Mike Liut]

Not a blues fan but outside perspective is no
It’s likely a good thing they don’t make the playoffs And sell high on all UFAs
Don’t make the red wings mistake of resigning guys of past glory
Get picks now and use cap space on a guy like Horvat

We are calling this a re-tool, not a complete rebuild. We will still have lots of talent on the roster after trading all the UFA’s. I’m calling it a 3 year re-tool. We’ll be locked and loaded after it’s over. After this year, we’ll really only need a couple good top 6 players to add to Thomas, Kyrou, Schenn, Buchnevich and a top pairing LD to be competitive again. We also have a good middle 6 young winger with Neighbors, 1 blue chip winger prospect in Snuggerued and 1 really winger/center prospect in Bolduc. We could walk away from draft with 3 - 1st rounders, a 2nd and a couple 3rds quite easily after selling the UFA’s. Things don’t look all that bad actually.

 

[TruBlu]

We will never go through a complete rebuild under DA, in fact, rebuilds are relatively rare in the last ten years throughout the NHL. The Hawks were damn near sold before Toews and Kane were drafted, despite being a major market team. They are mired in the position they are in right now because of the decisions they made a decade ago. Be glad we have a GM that doesn't do that. That being said, you can only re-tool so many times before you have to suffer some downturn years. We're at that point.

 

[Celtic Note]

I guess is am wondering with all the players we have on bad contracts/aging, removing two top line forwards and some others, how we will be able to retool. We need our prospects and near term picks to fill holes on the roster due to our sunk cap costs, particularly on the backend, plus Schenn. It’s going to be hard to acquire the players we need given those constraints.

If we go FA shopping, we will pay full freight for players. If we trade, what are we trading and what are we trading for? We really don’t have a surplus on the roster or on the farm.

 

[TK 421]

I guess is am wondering with all the players we have on bad contracts/aging, removing two top line forwards and some others, how we will be able to retool. We need our prospects and near term picks to fill holes on the roster due to our sunk cap costs, particularly on the backend, plus Schenn. It’s going to be hard to acquire the players we need given those constraints.

If we go FA shopping, we will pay full freight for players. If we trade, what are we trading and what are we trading for? We really don’t have a surplus on the roster or on the farm.

Next year figures to be another rough one if we lose even two of ROR/ Tarasenko/ Barbashev. We can only back fill that via UFA with Neighbours and Alexandrov being bottom 6 players. Bolduc could be here next year but it's likely he plays more in the AHL than the NHL. Snuggerud will likely be staying at Minnesota for his D+2 so I'm not seeing a ton of help from our forward prospects outside of Neighbours and Alexandrov.

I'm guessing we go cheap in UFA and get one legit top 6 guy from the 2nd or 3rd tier of guys available and that DA offers PTO's to more fringe guys again in an attempt to fill the other vacancy. It's all just lipstick on a pig flim flammery atm unless there's a big coaching shakeup or significant changes happen to the defense personnel.

Bottom line for me is that we just won't have the pieces needed to compete until two plus years from now where Snuggles and Bolduc are in the top 6 as regulars and our yet to be drafted top 10 pick is breaking in on his ELC. That also gives us time to restructure the defense and burn some more time off restrictive contracts while also getting into years where the cap will finally go up and some of those restrictive contracts can more easily be moved.

 

[Celtic Note]

Next year figures to be another rough one if we lose even two of ROR/ Tarasenko/ Barbashev. We can only back fill that via UFA with Neighbours and Alexandrov being bottom 6 players. Bolduc could be here next year but it's likely he plays more in the AHL than the NHL. Snuggerud will likely be staying at Minnesota for his D+2 so I'm not seeing a ton of help from our forward prospects outside of Neighbours and Alexandrov.

I'm guessing we go cheap in UFA and get one legit top 6 guy from the 2nd or 3rd tier of guys available and that DA offers PTO's to more fringe guys again in an attempt to fill the other vacancy. It's all just lipstick on a pig flim flammery atm unless there's a big coaching shakeup or significant changes happen to the defense personnel.

Bottom line for me is that we just won't have the pieces needed to compete until two plus years from now where Snuggles and Bolduc are in the top 6 as regulars and our yet to be drafted top 10 pick is breaking in on his ELC. That also gives us time to restructure the defense and burn some more time off restrictive contracts while also getting into years where the cap will finally go up and some of those restrictive contracts can more easily be moved.

I am seeing similar things. Baring some miraculous acquisition or two that lands us a defensive star and another two top 6 forwards, without hitting the current roster or our prospects/picks, I am not seeing a clear path to a successful retool. I think we have and will bleed the wrong player while keeping others that are lesser.

 

[TruBlu]

We don't need a rebuild. We need a little more than your typical re-tool but getting rid of Tank and ROR for some picks/prospects puts us right back in it in two or three years. You need a rebuild when you're dumb enough to overpay for guys that'll never live up to the contract on the back end and give them NMC's (Hint: look at Chicago). We have some guys signed long term to some moderate-high contracts but they don't have NMC's. With the way inflation is going there won't be any problem getting rid of a, let's say, 6 million contract when it is time to re-tool again. DA really is pretty masterful at the art of contract laddering. In a few years what was a 6 mil contract when you signed it will be a 4.5 mil contract when you trade them.

 

[Mike Liut]

If we are getting this years version of ROR and Tarasenko, I’m easily passing on signing them. I’ve barely noticed them on the ice when they are playing. ROR looks 40 out there.

 

[DatDude44]

We need to be patient with fixing our D-core.... I do think that group is better than they've showed this season. Tho that doesn't mean I'm particularly confident in them lol... But it's evident krug has been hurt all year, Faulk must be playing hurt because he's been abysmal since that hot start and leddy imo has been fine, but because of krugs injury etc... we've had to play leddy wayyyy above his head and in turn, we get the results we get.... I think we need use draft capital to find our next elite #1 or to use in deals to acquire an elite #1..... (Looking at reinbacher with our highest 1st, unless of course it's top 5) There's just simply no easy fix given the contracts and age etc.... we can't just buy out krug, no point in trading leddy unless he fetches a real return and faulk and parayko aren't gonna be going anywhere. Let it work itself out, while we focus on developing the next wave of our fwd core.

I think this deadline and offseason unless somehow, a reasonable chycrun type trade just happens to cross doug's table....I think we make a commitment to retooling the fwd core around thomas, kyrou, schenn, buch, Saad and maybe a signing? but really an influx over the next season or two of Neighbours, snuggy, Bolduc, (hopefully one of our 1sts fetched some trades) & Alexandrov should provide alot of quality support to our already established core, tho it might take time for them to settle in etc...

I think we're in a delicate spot, that if handled correctly (trading ROR, Tank, Barbs for real assets) could turn this alleged (rebuild) into more of a retool that only required one true tank or bad year followed by an influx of youth that even if next year we aren't great, we're finally back to a team that's climbing up the mountain, rather than a team descending down from our 2019 peak.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

The thought has crossed my mind, more than once, that our defensive corps may just be a group of players who just can't gel together. That happens sometimes. The irony is that sometimes the group who can't get on the same page is solved by one solid addition that brings everything together.

Unfortunately, I have no idea who that would be or how we get them.

 

[MissouriMook]

The thought has crossed my mind, more than once, that our defensive corps may just be a group of players who just can't gel together. That happens sometimes. The irony is that sometimes the group who can't get on the same page is solved by one solid addition that brings everything together.

Unfortunately, I have no idea who that would be or how we get them.

It’s possible, too, that just a system and/or coaching change could make them decidedly better. Think about how many times we’ve talked about back door tap ins lately and oftentimes it is because both defensemen chased the puck on the same side of the net. Maybe a different voice or a different structure could have them playing with better positioning and more cohesion.

 

[Celtic Note]

It’s possible, too, that just a system and/or coaching change could make them decidedly better. Think about how many times we’ve talked about back door tap ins lately and oftentimes it is because both defensemen chased the puck on the same side of the net. Maybe a different voice or a different structure could have them playing with better positioning and more cohesion.

I think we had the same problem with that last year too though. I recall a lot of cross ice, in front of the net passes that found their way into the net last year.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

I think we need a rebuild, I just think it’s impossible with the d core contracts.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I still think it's way too early to jump to a rebuild based on one horribly shit year. Blues should definitely wait until around the Draft Lotto to decide. We 100% need to find a way to get rid of Krug tho. It also depends on what we get via Tarasenko/RoR/Barbie trades and how the lottery plays out.

If we can get solid NHL ready players with good Upside we can definitely get back in contention fast. Especially we we get f***ing lucky with the draft lotto. If we hit gold and by some miracle get Bedard we could end up speeding it up as well.

 

[TruBlu]

I think we need a rebuild, I just think it’s impossible with the d core contracts.

We have too many young, good players locked in at this point. We are nowhere near rebuild territory, and never will be with the way DA ladders contracts and refuses to overpay or give NMC's. We are at a pivotal point where a decison has to be made on whether we work with what we have or trade at the TDL. We're not making the playoffs so we are absolutely trading at the TDL. The situation is not as dire as it looks right now. We will be in a lot better shape after the draft. The d core problem is more about the makeup than it is about the length and term. We just need some defensively minded dedicated dmen to add and ship out one of the puck moving dmen (I'd prefer Krug).

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

We have too many young, good players locked in at this point. We are nowhere near rebuild territory, and never will be with the way DA ladders contracts and refuses to overpay or give NMC's. We are at a pivotal point where a decison has to be made on whether we work with what we have or trade at the TDL. We're not making the playoffs so we are absolutely trading at the TDL. The situation is not as dire as it looks right now. We will be in a lot better shape after the draft. The d core problem is more about the makeup than it is about the length and term. We just need some defensively minded dedicated dmen to add and ship out one of the puck moving dmen (I'd prefer Krug).

I think coaching change (or at least assistant change) will have massive impact on our team defense. Things aren’t as bleak as they appear.

 

[Jumptheshark]

oiler fan coming in peace(as much as I come in peace on my board)

I was coming to ask you guys what is going on with your team( and saw this thread and I live in Europe--so I pretty much live under a rock when it comes to getting actually NHL news). But like most this time of year, I pay more attention to trade rumours and speculation. You guys got 31 games left, are sitting 9 pts out of a wild card spot and are 9th in team spending against the cap.

Obvious this thread is about the idea of rebuilding or or changing up on the fly(changing up on the fly can be dangerous--as an oiler fan we tried that for 10 years and it did not go well). For me there is thre great catalysts for what road you guys want to go down. Vlad and ROR. Both soon to be UFAs and the question is do you trade them for as much as you can or resign them? And then you have the Billington question(he is killing me in 3 fant leagues this season).

Your core guys up front and on the D are pretty much set and that sort of ties your hands but also puts you in a good position to sort of rebuild.

With new contracts starting for Thomas and Kryou, I can see you guys trading Vlad and ROR to the highest bidder to get the assets for either players already drafted and almost nhl ready or trading them for assets to trade for those player in the off season.

But the biggest question is will Binnington bounce back? As an oiler fan--75% of our trouble for the last 10 years or so is that we did not have a goalie who could go in and do a good job and that hurt us greatly. There are teams out there looking for a goalie and may be willing to take Binnington off your hands if you want to move on from him.

It is just a matter of making the decision of what the team wants to do

We have too many young, good players locked in at this point. We are nowhere near rebuild territory, and never will be with the way DA ladders contracts and refuses to overpay or give NMC's. We are at a pivotal point where a decison has to be made on whether we work with what we have or trade at the TDL. We're not making the playoffs so we are absolutely trading at the TDL. The situation is not as dire as it looks right now. We will be in a lot better shape after the draft. The d core problem is more about the makeup than it is about the length and term. We just need some defensively minded dedicated dmen to add and ship out one of the puck moving dmen (I'd prefer Krug).

That is what I think. WIth ROR and Vlad up as UFAs--trade them for assets that can help. But the Wild card is goaltending and how to deal with the situation. Sometime he looks great and other times he looks like he should be in the ECHL. Oilers had that problem for 10 years in net

 

[Frenzy31]

oiler fan coming in peace(as much as I come in peace on my board)

I was coming to ask you guys what is going on with your team( and saw this thread and I live in Europe--so I pretty much live under a rock when it comes to getting actually NHL news). But like most this time of year, I pay more attention to trade rumours and speculation. You guys got 31 games left, are sitting 9 pts out of a wild card spot and are 9th in team spending against the cap.

Obvious this thread is about the idea of rebuilding or or changing up on the fly(changing up on the fly can be dangerous--as an oiler fan we tried that for 10 years and it did not go well). For me there is thre great catalysts for what road you guys want to go down. Vlad and ROR. Both soon to be UFAs and the question is do you trade them for as much as you can or resign them? And then you have the Billington question(he is killing me in 3 fant leagues this season).

Your core guys up front and on the D are pretty much set and that sort of ties your hands but also puts you in a good position to sort of rebuild.

With new contracts starting for Thomas and Kryou, I can see you guys trading Vlad and ROR to the highest bidder to get the assets for either players already drafted and almost nhl ready or trading them for assets to trade for those player in the off season.

But the biggest question is will Binnington bounce back? As an oiler fan--75% of our trouble for the last 10 years or so is that we did not have a goalie who could go in and do a good job and that hurt us greatly. There are teams out there looking for a goalie and may be willing to take Binnington off your hands if you want to move on from him.

It is just a matter of making the decision of what the team wants to do


That is what I think. WIth ROR and Vlad up as UFAs--trade them for assets that can help. But the Wild card is goaltending and how to deal with the situation. Sometime he looks great and other times he looks like he should be in the ECHL. Oilers had that problem for 10 years in net

He hasn't really looked like an ECHL goalie this year. The D system is a massive problem for the team. We are seeing a large number of back door goals. Early on, we had a ton of bad bounce goals, like 8-9 in the first 15 games (where it goes of a d man and deflects in from the side of the net or off a rebound....). Dman in the wrong position at the wrong time. It has been a very odd year.

I am not for trading Binnington at this time. He had a terrible year last year which is just a fact, until the playoffs. But he has been pretty solid/average this year. And he has the ability to up his game. Most of us fans do not feel he is the problem this year - While last year he was part of the problem and lost his starting role.

 

[LGB]

So apparently the cap is supposed to jump quite a bit in 24/25 (87.5m projected) and then even more in 25/26 (92m projected). So with all these forward prospects coming in we might actually have a lot of flexibility. If you just include the players already under contract minus Krug (don't ask what I did with him) this is what our roster outline looks like in 24/25:

We have plenty of cheap options for the 4th line and 3rd pairing (Alexandrov, Blais, Tucker, Perunovich, etc.) and a whopping 27m in cap space to fill out the lineup. I was feeling pretty pessimistic about our chances at a quick turnaround recently but honestly this could be a good team in 24/25. A 2C and top pair defenseman are not easy to acquire, but we have the assets to potentially make it happen. As much as I like ROR and Barbie I don't think it makes sense to commit a lot of money to them with so many prospects coming in. Maybe ROR if he really wants to be here and takes a discount. We could kick both Schenn and Dean to the wing.

 

[Bluesguru]

Time to answer this question……………YES!

 

[Ranksu]

So Blues are like back in 2005?

 

[BrokenFace]

So Blues are like back in 2005?

Not at all. Ownership, front office, organizational level contracts, coaching, fan sentiment/engagement, prospects, and even the current roster are all way better than they were at the start of our last rebuild/retool. We're a cup winning team that got too old to contend, but still have a lot of good pieces. This year has sucked and next year likely will too, but there's a much better pathway to contention now than there was last time.

 

[Ranksu]

Not at all. Ownership, front office, organizational level contracts, coaching, fan sentiment/engagement, prospects, and even the current roster are all way better than they were at the start of our last rebuild/retool. We're a cup winning team that got too old to contend, but still have a lot of good pieces. This year has sucked and next year likely will too, but there's a much better pathway to contention now than there was last time.

I think we go 3+ years being bad again.

I compare team as how we have performed, badly.

We could see longer period of bleeding blues. Not bad enough for bottom team to get right pieces for re-tool or too bad for contend. We are just middle of everything so it could take long period of time to get right track.

Hate to see talent like Thomas and Kyrou get washed away their primes years in this mediocre team.

This team need full change of vision. Fix coaching staff at start.

 

[BlueDream]

The Blues won’t be bad for 3+ years.

Even in 2006 when we had our fire sale, we made the playoffs in 2009. And that is when we started from scratch with NOTHING.

This team already has a solid core of players and prospects, so we’re way ahead of the curve. Unless things go terribly wrong I just can’t see us still sucking in 2 years. We should absolutely be competitive.

Heck even for how shitty this year has been, we would be in playoff contention right now if we had just won 3 more games. I can think of 3 disastrous losses off the top of my head easily: getting blown out 5-0 to the Yotes, dropping both games to the lowly Habs, and that clunker at home against Chicago. There’s really no excuse for losing all of those games and if next year’s team decides to give a shit, winning games like that puts them in direct competition for the 8th playoff spot. It’s not really that tall of a task.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

BlueDream tellin' it like it is.

We ain't that far off.