I'd give Keefe till the 20 game mark

[Nineteen67]

Might need to revisit that.

No. NJ is exactly the type of team they‘d like to play. I’m not saying they’d win, but they wouldn’t be intimidated.

 

[snipes29]

I have no f***ing clue what is going on with AM and MM but they are doing absolutely nothing 5v5. Rielly playing like shit is helping things either. Whatever is going on with them it should cost Keefe his job

This joke at the top, Dumbass , Keefe , and Shanahan no accountability none! Fire them all oh wait “He's built a good team “ lmao

We've won 9 games and we've lost 9 games. And I don't think that many Leaf fans are feeling comfortable with this club so far this year. They look shaky and soft and unreliable.

So the question is........do they ride it out and hope for the best? Will Dubas do something stupid to try and save his own neck? Will our young core guys EVER shake this seemingly apathetic look they have?

Could get interesting this year. Maybe shortly after that 20 game mark the OP talks about.

Soft is the key word

 

[Tak7]

We've won 9 games and we've lost 9 games. And I don't think that many Leaf fans are feeling comfortable with this club so far this year. They look shaky and soft and unreliable.

So the question is........do they ride it out and hope for the best? Will Dubas do something stupid to try and save his own neck? Will our young core guys EVER shake this seemingly apathetic look they have?

Could get interesting this year. Maybe shortly after that 20 game mark the OP talks about.

If you're Shanahan and the board, you clearly aren't all-in on Dubas / Keefe otherwise they'd have extensions by now. Is the move, therefore, not to do anything and just write the season off?

Give the new guy a fresh look, with picks that weren't thrown away in some hail mary by Dubas, and an opportunity to pick his new coach. He'll also have at least $11M in cap space once Kerfoot, Engvall, Bunting, Simmonds, and Holl are off the books.

Unless they still consider Dubas an option next season, doing anything now just feels like they are hamstringing the new guy whenever he comes in.

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

Toronto's coaching and management is a laughing stock. They all have to go.

 

[Racer88]

4 points, and I think their record relative to some cherry picked overachieving team 17 games into the regular season isn't really a great measure of contender status. Are you saying that only 4 teams - 3 of which didn't even make the playoffs last year - are the only contenders in the league?

Leafs have 21 points after 17 games. Let's look at where past cup winners stood at this point...

Colorado in 2021-2022: 21 points
Tampa in 2020-2021: 25 points
Tampa in 2019-2020: 20 points
St Louis in 2018-2019: 17 points
Washington in 2017-2018: 19 points
Pittsburgh in 2016-2017: 24 points
Pittsburgh in 2015-2016: 20 points
Chicago in 2014-2015: 19 points

That means the average point total after 17 games for Cup winners over the past 8 years is 20.625 points, which is less than what we have. The majority had a worse record than we do.

First off, we're 20th in GF/60, and 8th in GA/60.
Second, it's not as straightforward as losing D = only defense is hurt, and losing F = only offense is hurt.
Third, while our offense has been abnormally dry through the beginning of this season, that's mostly a matter of conversion. We've gone from an xGF/60 of 3.34 last year, to an xGF/60 of 3.37 this year. Unfortunately, the best goal scorer in the world has been going through a massive conversion slump. But as a team that has outperformed their xGF metric in every single year of the Matthews era, currently being dragged down by the best goal-scorer in the world, it's most logical to assume that we're not going to continue producing at a level that is 0.45 GF/60 below our expected.
What has dropped is our defensive metrics, as a result of losing Muzzin, and Liljegren, and now Brodie. We've dropped from an xGA/60 of 2.64 last year to an xGA/60 of 2.88.
And while goaltending is certainly holding up much better than the disaster it was last year, we've still been forced to play our #4 goalie (and our worst performing goalie this year), in about half our games. That does not help. There are multiple games we could have won with a Samsonov/Murray instead of Kallgren.

So based on you’re expert analysis is this the year that the Leafs actually win a round or will they stretch the losing streak to 7. What do the numbers tell us

Barring a collapse we're not bad enough for him to get fired until after the season

As we're built right now we're not good enough to win however. Basically in limbo.

I don't know how much of that is Keefe's fault. Something seems off offensively it's hard to figure out what that is

We have been in limbo for the last 6 years

 

[ITM]

If you're Shanahan and the board, you clearly aren't all-in on Dubas / Keefe otherwise they'd have extensions by now. Is the move, therefore, not to do anything and just write the season off?

Give the new guy a fresh look, with picks that weren't thrown away in some hail mary by Dubas, and an opportunity to pick his new coach. He'll also have at least $11M in cap space once Kerfoot, Engvall, Bunting, Simmonds, and Holl are off the books.

Unless they still consider Dubas an option next season, doing anything now just feels like they are hamstringing the new guy whenever he comes in.

This close to Matthews' decision, it can't be. Or I should say, I hope it's not.

The approach should be to see if Trotz or Quenneville is comfortable coming in mid-season. That's enough time to do a couple of things, not the least of which is give this club a jolt of adrenaline that changes of that magnitude often bring. And it will absolutely identify what we have in Marner. Then the larger question that we'd have to have an answer to is: Is Matthews committed to Toronto or Mitch Marner?

I think keeping Matthews and Nylander are our top priorities personnel wise. Swimming to that post-Tavares contract island is our top priority with respect to any future movement and retool on the fly.

But surely, the success of this club doesn't hinge on retaining Keefe any more than it hinges on retaining Kerfoot.

I think January is Shanahan's deadline for Keefe. I think Keefe is in a Carlyle-like trial period and if memory serves, January was the dividing line between trying to salvage the club and writing the season off then.

This time, I suspect it's salvaging the season and the playoffs that the January deadline brings this time.

We're strapped in and we're climbing the first lift hill.

 

[geo25]

If you're Shanahan and the board, you clearly aren't all-in on Dubas / Keefe otherwise they'd have extensions by now. Is the move, therefore, not to do anything and just write the season off?

Give the new guy a fresh look, with picks that weren't thrown away in some hail mary by Dubas, and an opportunity to pick his new coach. He'll also have at least $11M in cap space once Kerfoot, Engvall, Bunting, Simmonds, and Holl are off the books.

Unless they still consider Dubas an option next season, doing anything now just feels like they are hamstringing the new guy whenever he comes in.

Correct....however, brining in a new team gives them fresh eyes to evaluate what they now have and base their decisions from that.

 

[conFABulator]

Clearly this is the thread for people that are unhappy with the Leafs no matter what.

Why has no one mentioned that the Leafs are 5th in NHL and 3rd in the conference?

They have done this after a very slow start, with both goalies suffering injuries, and Muzzin being out for basically the entire year.

Our top guys are playing fine offensively but haven't really hit their stride yet.

We are one of the top defensive teams in the league and our goalies have been good to very good.

It seems as though our adds to this team over the past couple of years have worked out well...

Murray
Samsonov
Giordano
Bunting
Kampf
Malgin
Benn

ZAR and Jarnkrok seem like decent depth still finding their fit.

We also have Robertson and a lot of Marlies that are knocking on the door (Kallgren, Holmberg, Anderson, Kral) and we have Knies and Niemala.

We have cap space (Muzzin) and our draft picks and assets. Why all the doom and gloom, did I mention we are in 5th right now?

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Clearly this is the thread for people that are unhappy with the Leafs no matter what.

Why has no one mentioned that the Leafs are 5th in NHL and 3rd in the conference?

They have done this after a very slow start, with both goalies suffering injuries, and Muzzin being out for basically the entire year.

Our top guys are playing fine offensively but haven't really hit their stride yet.

We are one of the top defensive teams in the league and our goalies have been good to very good.

It seems as though our adds to this team over the past couple of years have worked out well...

Murray
Samsonov
Giordano
Bunting
Kampf
Malgin
Benn

ZAR and Jarnkrok seem like decent depth still finding their fit.

We also have Robertson and a lot of Marlies that are knocking on the door (Kallgren, Holmberg, Anderson, Kral) and we have Knies and Niemala.

We have cap space (Muzzin) and our draft picks and assets. Why all the doom and gloom, did I mention we are in 5th right now?

Not this. This one is certain.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why has no one mentioned that the Leafs are 5th in NHL and 3rd in the conference?

Something something regular season doesn't matter.......... unless there's something to complain about!

 

[conFABulator]

Not this. This one is certain.

I meant our first if we want to move one this year.

Something something regular season doesn't matter.......... unless there's something to complain about!

Exactly, maybe those people should not watch or comment until the playoffs then.

 

[ACC1224]

Looks like the thought police were up early today. Cheer up, life’s good.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Why has no one mentioned that the Leafs are 5th in NHL and 3rd in the conference?

Because we're not.

We have the 5th best PT% in the East and the 10th best PT% in the NHL.

 

[conFABulator]

Because we're not.

We have the 5th best PT% in the East and the 10th best PT% in the NHL.

Sure, we can slice and dice numbers all day long. How about we run the numbers for November? After a slow start? I believe the Leafs are 6-1-2 in November.

We want this team to grow and develop more of a playoff ready game. Obviously, we won't know if they did this until that time comes.

The Leafs have the 5th best GAA in the NHL this season and are top 10 in shots allowed and SV%, this is including the slow start. They are also top 10 in hits. These are good indicators, no?

This team has done this without Muzzin and their two goalies for much of the year, Kallgren has played 8 games and brings down our overall defensive metrics (as to be expected as a third string goalie, he also has five of our losses too btw).

They have lots of cap room and assets and they can add to this team for sure. I see more reasons for optimism, but I don't always see the negatives only.

 

[Gallagbi]

So based on you’re expert analysis is this the year that the Leafs actually win a round or will they stretch the losing streak to 7. What do the numbers tell us


We have been in limbo for the last 6 years

This feels like such a petty post

 

[LeafChief]

I don't really have all that much of an issue with Keefe. I think he's an average to maybe slightly above average coach.

With that said, the possibility of adding Trotz or Quenneville (if cleared by the league) is really, really enticing.

Keefe has put up good numbers in his tenure but when you have the opportunity for such a significant upgrade, you have to consider it.

Clearly this is the thread for people that are unhappy with the Leafs no matter what.

Why has no one mentioned that the Leafs are 5th in NHL and 3rd in the conference?

They have done this after a very slow start, with both goalies suffering injuries, and Muzzin being out for basically the entire year.

Our top guys are playing fine offensively but haven't really hit their stride yet.

We are one of the top defensive teams in the league and our goalies have been good to very good.

It seems as though our adds to this team over the past couple of years have worked out well...

Murray
Samsonov
Giordano
Bunting
Kampf
Malgin
Benn

ZAR and Jarnkrok seem like decent depth still finding their fit.

We also have Robertson and a lot of Marlies that are knocking on the door (Kallgren, Holmberg, Anderson, Kral) and we have Knies and Niemala.

We have cap space (Muzzin) and our draft picks and assets. Why all the doom and gloom, did I mention we are in 5th right now?

There are definitely a lot of negative people around here that will be negative no matter what.

With that said, Trotz or Quenneville would be such a significant upgrade that you have to at least consider it.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs are 10th. in points percentage after going through the back-up, back-up keeper phase.

 

[Auston Marlander]

We've won 9 games and we've lost 9 games. And I don't think that many Leaf fans are feeling comfortable with this club so far this year. They look shaky and soft and unreliable.

So the question is........do they ride it out and hope for the best? Will Dubas do something stupid to try and save his own neck? Will our young core guys EVER shake this seemingly apathetic look they have?

Could get interesting this year. Maybe shortly after that 20 game mark the OP talks about.

They are 5th in the league (10th by pt%) after playing our 5th string goalie for 42% of our games. Keep up the hot takes brother.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Sure, we can slice and dice numbers all day long. How about we run the numbers for November? After a slow start? I believe the Leafs are 6-1-2 in November.

We want this team to grow and develop more of a playoff ready game. Obviously, we won't know if they did this until that time comes.

The Leafs have the 5th best GAA in the NHL this season and are top 10 in shots allowed and SV%, this is including the slow start. They are also top 10 in hits. These are good indicators, no?

This team has done this without Muzzin and their two goalies for much of the year, Kallgren has played 8 games and brings down our overall defensive metrics (as to be expected as a third string goalie, he also has five of our losses too btw).

They have lots of cap room and assets and they can add to this team for sure. I see more reasons for optimism, but I don't always see the negatives only.

One one hand it's good to see Matthews throwing his weight around consistently but on the other hand being top 10 in hits all of a sudden without changing our personnel is a bit of a concern. We're losing pucks on unforced errors way more often and turn it into a board battle that generates a few hits when the puck should have been controlled and gone to the net instead of being fumbled to the boards in the first place.

I don't know if it's Keefe, the players, or some sort of unknown external factor, but something has happened to their hands the last 2 years. Plays that used to be automatic crisp executions are breaking down on simple passes failing under minimal pressure. Holl and Engvall all of a sudden need 3+ attempts to get a puck out of our zone when that would have been an easy breakaway a year or two ago.

It's far and away the most important issue that needs to be fixed but I don't know how you'd go about doing it. Matthews seems to have worked around it by living in the crease and cleaning up broken plays for almost all of his goals this year.

 

[Sypher04]

Leafs are 10th. in points percentage after going through the back-up, back-up keeper phase.

View attachment 610461

Yup. And a whopping .007 behind Tampa at 7th in the league

 

[The Iceman]

I don't really have all that much of an issue with Keefe. I think he's an average to maybe slightly above average coach.

With that said, the possibility of adding Trotz or Quenneville (if cleared by the league) is really, really enticing.

Keefe has put up good numbers in his tenure but when you have the opportunity for such a significant upgrade, you have to consider it.


There are definitely a lot of negative people around here that will be negative no matter what.

With that said, Trotz or Quenneville would be such a significant upgrade that you have to at least consider it.

Agreed, if the team falls off.
It also depends how you have Keefe rated as a coach.

Reality is there isn't that big of a difference on the ice upgrading from a good coach to a very good coach.
From a below avg coach to a very good coach sign me up.

Depends where you stand on Keefe.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I guess it really depends how you feel about skill guys struggling to execute basic skill plays and making stupid mistakes like the Sandin flub that put a nail in our coffin against PIT or the Muzzin flub that cost us the first game against MTL. That has hurt us more than poor efforts.

Keefe is also likely standing there and looking at Matthews having the 2nd highest ixG in the league at 5-on-5, with a ton of high caliber looks, but he only has 2 goals with a 3.7% SH% (T-6th on our team with Engvall, ZAR, and Malgin). If he has 4 or 5 more 5-on-5 goals like he realistically should have at this point, how does this team look?

We may not be at Boston/Jersey level, but we are probably at Vegas level just on that alone. Add in Kerfoot not having any ES goals yet despite having a ton of good looks, and Bunting could easily have had a couple more himself, and that is really the difference for us right now. Even using our 4th stringer for almost half the games this year, the Leafs would have likely been a top 5 team in the NHL.

 

[Racer88]

This feels like such a petty post

Nope. He seems to be an expert on everything Leafs so I would like to hear what he has to say

 

[Gabriel426]

I guess it really depends how you feel about skill guys struggling to execute basic skill plays and making stupid mistakes like the Sandin flub that put a nail in our coffin against PIT or the Muzzin flub that cost us the first game against MTL. That has hurt us more than poor efforts.

Keefe is also likely standing there and looking at Matthews having the 2nd highest ixG in the league at 5-on-5, with a ton of high caliber looks, but he only has 2 goals with a 3.7% SH% (T-6th on our team with Engvall, ZAR, and Malgin). If he has 4 or 5 more 5-on-5 goals like he realistically should have at this point, how does this team look?

We may not be at Boston/Jersey level, but we are probably at Vegas level just on that alone. Add in Kerfoot not having any ES goals yet despite having a ton of good looks, and Bunting could easily have had a couple more himself, and that is really the difference for us right now. Even using our 4th stringer for almost half the games this year, the Leafs would have likely been a top 5 team in the NHL.

To me it comes to playoffs. Leafs could be as good as the Bruins now and the question will still be can they win in the playoffs.

My concern with Keefe’s coaching is that his game plan have a Dman or both joining the attack all the time. I love the way Benn is playing but he really should never be park in front of the opposing net when he scored his goal. This is just one of the examples why Keefe’s team will allow odd man rushes the other way, which is what hurts us in the playoffs.

 

[ULF_55]

I guess it really depends how you feel about skill guys struggling to execute basic skill plays and making stupid mistakes like the Sandin flub that put a nail in our coffin against PIT or the Muzzin flub that cost us the first game against MTL. That has hurt us more than poor efforts.

Keefe is also likely standing there and looking at Matthews having the 2nd highest ixG in the league at 5-on-5, with a ton of high caliber looks, but he only has 2 goals with a 3.7% SH% (T-6th on our team with Engvall, ZAR, and Malgin). If he has 4 or 5 more 5-on-5 goals like he realistically should have at this point, how does this team look?

We may not be at Boston/Jersey level, but we are probably at Vegas level just on that alone. Add in Kerfoot not having any ES goals yet despite having a ton of good looks, and Bunting could easily have had a couple more himself, and that is really the difference for us right now. Even using our 4th stringer for almost half the games this year, the Leafs would have likely been a top 5 team in the NHL.

And it isn't even youngsters flubbing the pucks, as you mention Muzzin. It includes Rielly and others.

Is this something being drilled into them at practice or something?

Perhaps, it is just the flubs that result in goals are being highlighted, and not the flubs that just causes penalties against or unnecessary scrambles.

There are also too many plays where the defender just doesn't get the puck out of the zone. They aren't outright flubs just a lack of bearing down.

All correctable issues.

One would think the lack of scoring corrects itself as players revert to form.