I'd give Keefe till the 20 game mark

[81Leafs50]

Keefe is gone with the GM. the new one will want his own coach. dont count the games.

 

[The Podium]

I think most are judging the team on how they are playing more so than the results.

It’s funny, they’re judging them on not producing offensively or based on the eye test.

Standings and every defensive metric (advanced and dumb) suggest they’re a top 6 team in the league right now despite injuries in key positions.

 

[Nineteen67]

He’s got t2 wins out of 8. Shinny season came right on schedule.

 

[Hellcat]

It’s funny, they’re judging them on not producing offensively or based on the eye test.

Standings and every defensive metric (advanced and dumb) suggest they’re a top 6 team in the league right now despite injuries in key positions.

Is being good defensively really all that great of an accomplishment when you've played over half of your games vs teams who are or were terrible at the time we played them? Ottawa (.367), Montreal (.531), Washington (.444), Arizona (.433), San Jose (.417), Anaheim (.344), LA (.583), Philly (.531), Pitts (.469) twice , Van (.382).

Injuries to Key positions? Lilly who on an average team should be a bottom paring dman? Murray who hasn't played like Murray for 3 years? Muz who's been on a steep skills decline for 3 years? Samsonov who is considered our back up, who played great while we had him? No injuries to our top two dmen, (Brodie injured just recently) or our top 4 skaters, the core is what is considered key positions not bottom pairing dmen and not declining players like Murray and Muzzin.

Our defensive metrics are more an indication of the teams that we have played vs our team actually doing something consistently tangible to get those results.

The fact that we've played that many bottom feeders and our 5 on 5 scoring is among the league worse should be alarming. The fact that Marner and Matthews are intentionally sandbagging their defensive games, should be super alarming. Watch both of them play without the puck and watch how often they get beat on 50/50 plays and how often pucks get past them and then compare it to their games over the last 3 years to this years performance, there is a subtle but purposeful lack of effort in their games without the puck. they both know if they produce the media wont and the pitch fork and torch crowd wont focus on them, because most of the people in those groups lack the ability to break down the game at a micro level. When was the last time Marner was an even +/- (2017-18)? Matthews a +1 +/-? (2018-19). I'm not going to get into a debate about the merits of +/-, its a directional stat that tells you to watch the play to get the full picture. Ask anyone who has been around the game long enough to understand the X's and O's, if being polite they will say something is not right about M &M's game, if they are being blunt they will say M & M are are sneakily sandbagging to get the coach fired.

Second place in our division? This team is not what it appears to be. It is a paper tiger.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Is being good defensively really all that great of an accomplishment when you've played over half of your games vs teams who are or were terrible at the time we played them? Ottawa (.367), Montreal (.531), Washington (.444), Arizona (.433), San Jose (.417), Anaheim (.344), LA (.583), Philly (.531), Pitts (.469) twice , Van (.382).

Injuries to Key positions? Lilly who on an average team should be a bottom paring dman? Murray who hasn't played like Murray for 3 years? Muz who's been on a steep skills decline for 3 years? Samsonov who is considered our back up, who played great while we had him? No injuries to our top two dmen, (Brodie injured just recently) or our top 4 skaters, the core is what is considered key positions not bottom pairing dmen and not declining players like Murray and Muzzin.

Our defensive metrics are more an indication of the teams that we have played vs our team actually doing something consistently tangible to get those results.

The fact that we've played that many bottom feeders and our 5 on 5 scoring is among the league worse should be alarming. The fact that Marner and Matthews are intentionally sandbagging their defensive games, should be super alarming. Watch both of them play without the puck and watch how often they get beat on 50/50 plays and how often pucks get past them and then compare it to their games over the last 3 years to this years performance, there is a subtle but purposeful lack of effort in their games without the puck. they both know if they produce the media wont and the pitch fork and torch crowd wont focus on them, because most of the people in those groups lack the ability to break down the game at a micro level. When was the last time Marner was an even +/- (2017-18)? Matthews a +1 +/-? (2018-19). I'm not going to get into a debate about the merits of +/-, its a directional stat that tells you to watch the play to get the full picture. Ask anyone who has been around the game long enough to understand the X's and O's, if being polite they will say something is not right about M &M's game, if they are being blunt they will say M & M are are sneakily sandbagging to get the coach fired.

Second place in our division? This team is not what it appears to be. It is a paper tiger.

I can't imagine being this miserable.

How angry are you when the Leafs win?

THEY DIDN'T WIN GOOD ENOUGH!!!

 

[Dekes For Days]

You think a Stanley Cup contender with this star power should be 2 points ahead of Montreal?

4 points, and I think their record relative to some cherry picked overachieving team 17 games into the regular season isn't really a great measure of contender status. Are you saying that only 4 teams - 3 of which didn't even make the playoffs last year - are the only contenders in the league?

Leafs have 21 points after 17 games. Let's look at where past cup winners stood at this point...

Colorado in 2021-2022: 21 points
Tampa in 2020-2021: 25 points
Tampa in 2019-2020: 20 points
St Louis in 2018-2019: 17 points
Washington in 2017-2018: 19 points
Pittsburgh in 2016-2017: 24 points
Pittsburgh in 2015-2016: 20 points
Chicago in 2014-2015: 19 points

That means the average point total after 17 games for Cup winners over the past 8 years is 20.625 points, which is less than what we have. The majority had a worse record than we do.

Leafs are the 23rd ranked team in GF/GP, how do any of the players that were injured impact that stat? BTW the stat that the players you mentioned would impact more would be GA/GP, Leafs are 9th best.

First off, we're 20th in GF/60, and 8th in GA/60.
Second, it's not as straightforward as losing D = only defense is hurt, and losing F = only offense is hurt.
Third, while our offense has been abnormally dry through the beginning of this season, that's mostly a matter of conversion. We've gone from an xGF/60 of 3.34 last year, to an xGF/60 of 3.37 this year. Unfortunately, the best goal scorer in the world has been going through a massive conversion slump. But as a team that has outperformed their xGF metric in every single year of the Matthews era, currently being dragged down by the best goal-scorer in the world, it's most logical to assume that we're not going to continue producing at a level that is 0.45 GF/60 below our expected.
What has dropped is our defensive metrics, as a result of losing Muzzin, and Liljegren, and now Brodie. We've dropped from an xGA/60 of 2.64 last year to an xGA/60 of 2.88.
And while goaltending is certainly holding up much better than the disaster it was last year, we've still been forced to play our #4 goalie (and our worst performing goalie this year), in about half our games. That does not help. There are multiple games we could have won with a Samsonov/Murray instead of Kallgren.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

First off, we're 20th in GF/60, and 8th in GA/60.

I believe it's actually 6th overall after last night!

And our shooting% is 26th...no way that keeps up with our talent.

Especially this man:

 

[ACC1224]

It’s funny, they’re judging them on not producing offensively or based on the eye test.

Standings and every defensive metric (advanced and dumb) suggest they’re a top 6 team in the league right now despite injuries in key positions.

Eye test exclusively for me. I realize they aren't producing but that will come around and more importantly they need to learn how to win the low scoring tight checking games.

Perhaps this is that evolution, let's hope so.

 

[Nineteen67]

Eye test exclusively for me. I realize they aren't producing but that will come around and more importantly they need to learn how to win the low scoring tight checking games.

Perhaps this is that evolution, let's hope so.

Right now they’re paying attention to their own net and anecdotally it seems they’re not allowing as many wide open chances and are clearing loose pucks around the goal.

Based on how the goalies play, that focus will have to continue all year.

 

[ACC1224]

Right now they’re paying attention to their own net and anecdotally it seems they’re not allowing as many wide open chances and are clearing loose pucks around the goal.

Based on how the goalies play, that focus will have to continue all year.

That would be a good thing.

 

[Nineteen67]

That would be a good thing.

If they do, they very well could win the Atlantic and get a favourable match in the 1st round - NJ or Det might be a good fit

 

[Hellcat]

4 points, and I think their record relative to some cherry picked overachieving team 17 games into the regular season isn't really a great measure of contender status. Are you saying that only 4 teams - 3 of which didn't even make the playoffs last year - are the only contenders in the league?

Leafs have 21 points after 17 games. Let's look at where past cup winners stood at this point...

Colorado in 2021-2022: 21 points
Tampa in 2020-2021: 25 points
Tampa in 2019-2020: 20 points
St Louis in 2018-2019: 17 points
Washington in 2017-2018: 19 points
Pittsburgh in 2016-2017: 24 points
Pittsburgh in 2015-2016: 20 points
Chicago in 2014-2015: 19 points

That means the average point total after 17 games for Cup winners over the past 8 years is 20.625 points, which is less than what we have. The majority had a worse record than we do.

First off, we're 20th in GF/60, and 8th in GA/60.
Second, it's not as straightforward as losing D = only defense is hurt, and losing F = only offense is hurt.
Third, while our offense has been abnormally dry through the beginning of this season, that's mostly a matter of conversion. We've gone from an xGF/60 of 3.34 last year, to an xGF/60 of 3.37 this year. Unfortunately, the best goal scorer in the world has been going through a massive conversion slump. But as a team that has outperformed their xGF metric in every single year of the Matthews era, currently being dragged down by the best goal-scorer in the world, it's most logical to assume that we're not going to continue producing at a level that is 0.45 GF/60 below our expected.
What has dropped is our defensive metrics, as a result of losing Muzzin, and Liljegren, and now Brodie. We've dropped from an xGA/60 of 2.64 last year to an xGA/60 of 2.88.
And while goaltending is certainly holding up much better than the disaster it was last year, we've still been forced to play our #4 goalie (and our worst performing goalie this year), in about half our games. That does not help. There are multiple games we could have won with a Samsonov/Murray instead of Kallgren.

So WTF does a team that won the cup 3 years ago, 4 years ago, 2 years ago have to do with this year? I think you're trying to make a point and bravo to you for using stats but I'm not sure you are making the point you're intending to make or making any point TBH.

Secondly if you pick the stats after last nights game of course there will be movement from the stats I picked BEFORE last nights game completed.

Yes it is as straight forward as UNDERSTANDING that the impact to a players loss on the team is correlative to the role they play on the team, the four players we lost, their purpose for being on this team is to suppress GA. We lost two goalies who don't score and 2 dmen who don't score, are you suggesting if we had any of the 4 our GA would be markedly higher? How many goals has Murray and Samsonov scored in their careers? The four players that we lost are all at best complimentary players, their loss was replaced by a 25 year old rookie and a multiple journeyman d-man

xGA of 2.64 to 2.88, OK so if we score 3 goals a game we win either way? How is 1/4 of a goal a game statistically significant? It's not. How is anything you wrote significant? It's not.

You suggest that there are multiple games we would have won with Murray or Samsonov in goal, sure which ones? Keep in mind you said MULTIPLE. He officially lost two games, a loss in the NHL is when you don't get a point, because if you lose how can you be awarded a point right? He lost two games, Arizona and Pitts. The Arizona game you could have had Hasek, Roy and Brodeur all playing nets and as dog shit as this team was in that game, no goalie would have stole a point. That leaves the Pitts game, before he let in the weak goal in the third, he was the only reason why the team was in the game, made a number of ten bell saves, who can say if Murry and Samsonov would have made those same 10 bell saves?.

Now we can stop this back and forth, our you can take your time and write a big long reply to which I'm going to dismiss again or we can just agree to disagree and stop replying to each other. Better yet I'm just going to stop replying to you because I dont think you have it in you to stop. As much as you try, clearly your hockey knowledge is at a rough and evolving stage, not an insult just an observation. I was where you were 30 years ago, I get it, you don't know what you don't know. Through the years, I was fortunate to make friends with multiple former NHL players and current scouts. I had an open mind to learn and they were kind enough to teach me the game from a professional perspective, they taught me, directly and indirectly, how to watch the game the right way, TBH I'm still learning. You on the other hand, sorry buddy, your not bringing anything to this conversation and TBH, you're slightly annoying me with nonsensical reply's. I'm being a gentleman when I ask you to kindly stop.

 

[Ciao]

So WTF does a team that won the cup 3 years ago, 4 years ago, 2 years ago have to do with this year? I think you're trying to make a point and bravo to you for using stats but I'm not sure you are making the point you're intending to make or making any point TBH.

Secondly if you pick the stats after last nights game of course there will be movement from the stats I picked BEFORE last nights game completed.

Yes it is as straight forward as UNDERSTANDING that the impact to a players loss on the team is correlative to the role they play on the team, the four players we lost, their purpose for being on this team is to suppress GA. We lost two goalies who don't score and 2 dmen who don't score, are you suggesting if we had any of the 4 our GA would be markedly higher? How many goals has Murray and Samsonov scored in their careers? The four players that we lost are all at best complimentary players, their loss was replaced by a 25 year old rookie and a multiple journeyman d-man

xGA of 2.64 to 2.88, OK so if we score 3 goals a game we win either way? How is 1/4 of a goal a game statistically significant? It's not. How is anything you wrote significant? It's not.

You suggest that there are multiple games we would have won with Murray or Samsonov in goal, sure which ones? Keep in mind you said MULTIPLE. He officially lost two games, a loss in the NHL is when you don't get a point, because if you lose how can you be awarded a point right? He lost two games, Arizona and Pitts. The Arizona game you could have had Hasek, Roy and Brodeur all playing nets and as dog shit as this team was in that game, no goalie would have stole a point. That leaves the Pitts game, before he let in the weak goal in the third, he was the only reason why the team was in the game, made a number of ten bell saves, who can say if Murry and Samsonov would have made those same 10 bell saves?.

Now we can stop this back and forth, our you can take your time and write a big long reply to which I'm going to dismiss again or we can just agree to disagree and stop replying to each other. Better yet I'm just going to stop replying to you because I dont think you have it in you to stop. As much as you try, clearly your hockey knowledge is at a rough and evolving stage, not an insult just an observation. I was where you were 30 years ago, I get it, you don't know what you don't know. Through the years, I was fortunate to make friends with multiple former NHL players and current scouts. I had an open mind to learn and they were kind enough to teach me the game from a professional perspective, they taught me, directly and indirectly, how to watch the game the right way, TBH I'm still learning. You on the other hand, sorry buddy, your not bringing anything to this conversation and TBH, you're slightly annoying me with nonsensical reply's. I'm being a gentleman when I ask you to kindly stop.

TL; DNR.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So WTF does a team that won the cup 3 years ago, 4 years ago, 2 years ago have to do with this year?

Those were their point totals after 17 games in the year that they won. You were attempting to argue that we are not a contender because of our record at this point, but we actually have a better record than most of the past 8 cup winners did at this point of their cup-winning season. Your argument was wrong.

Secondly if you pick the stats after last nights game of course there will be movement from the stats I picked BEFORE last nights game completed.

If things are changing that significantly from one game, that should just tell you that it's way too early to be drawing any of the conclusions that you are anyway.

Yes it is as straight forward as UNDERSTANDING that the impact to a players loss on the team is correlative to the role they play on the team, the four players we lost, their purpose for being on this team is to suppress GA.

While less-so than their primary roles, forwards still play a role in defense and defensemen still play a role in offense. And beyond that, if you're spending more time defending because your defense is decimated, then it's going to impact the amount of time you have to generate offense, even if your in-zone offensive generation is the same.

Kind of irrelevant anyway because, as I showed, our defense is what has been most injured, and our defense is what has taken the biggest hit. The difference may seem insignificant to you, but it's not. It's dropped us from the 3rd best to the 11th best defensive team in the league so far.

And very obviously, playing Samsonov (+0.643 GSAx/60) or Murray (+0.000 GSAx/60) would be better than playing our #4 Kallgren (-0.177 GSAx/60).

You suggest that there are multiple games we would have won with Murray or Samsonov in goal, sure which ones?

Arizona, San Jose, Anaheim, Vegas, and Pittsburgh games were all winnable games with a better goalie performance. All of them were one-goal games in which Kallgren had a sub-0.900 SV%.

 

[1specter]

There are various concerns with this team, but I think it's good to take a step back and see that they're 2nd in the division, 6th in the league in points and 8th in pts % despite playing pretty mediocre hockey for most of the first 10 games and also being in a shooting rut as a team. They also have a combined record of 3-1-1 against Boston, Carolina, Winnipeg and Vegas who are currently in the top 5. Could potentially go to 4-1-1 against top 5 teams depending on how Thursday's game against Jersey plays out.

They are ahead of teams like Florida, Tampa, Edmonton (a 'Cup favourite' as picked by many analysts ), Colorado, Calgary, Pittsburgh and others. There are also teams in the top half like Winnipeg, Dallas, Seattle, Detroit etc that are overperforming right now and IMO will fall flat later on.

We often forget how long an 82 game season really is.

 

[fahad203]

I just know he better pick up the pace here
Otherwise fastest coach to 200 is looking really out of reach right now

#fastestcoachto100

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Woof.

 

[rocketman588]

Barring a collapse we're not bad enough for him to get fired until after the season

As we're built right now we're not good enough to win however. Basically in limbo.

I don't know how much of that is Keefe's fault. Something seems off offensively it's hard to figure out what that is

 

[Stephen]

Woof.

Would assume the Leafs have a lot of turnovers because they hold the puck more than usual and try to make plays where there are none.

They make a lot of soft laterals, bump backs, curl backs, east west plays, kick outs to open ice and a lot of regroups which are not straight line north south plays. This means the puck carrier is often processing options and playing that mid tempo game with very little momentum and trying to execute in traffic. The opposition forecheck and defense is also waiting to be sprung on the counter attack. This happens so much in games vs Montreal and park the bus defenses.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Woof.

Meh, seems skewed by the home score keeper. 15 giveaways per game at home, 7.5 on the road

 

[justashadowof]

To rescue value out of this current group there needs to be new leadership on high starting with the president on down. Some players don't deserve to wear the blue and white with the way they play the game. The stars need to focus on team goals over personal goals. All stuff Shanahan claimed to believe when he came here. Again the only player ever held accountable here was held accountable for the wrong reasons: his passionate reaction(s) as a member of the team.

 

[thewave]

Meh, seems skewed by the home score keeper. 15 giveaways per game at home, 7.5 on the road

I doubt it. The local guys are always looking to show off at home. I mean look at Mitch he probably owns 5 a night and Holl the rest,

 

[Mickey Marner]

Meh, seems skewed by the home score keeper. 15 giveaways per game at home, 7.5 on the road

Yeah, I only ever use away stats for things like takeaways, giveaways, hits etc.

 

[justashadowof]

The Leafs at this point in time should be a well-oiled machine. They got the prime of Marner's/Matthews/Nylander's/Rielly's careers. Instead they're an uneven play-if-they-feel-like-it collection of stars surrounded by some of the softest support talent I've ever seen assembled. It's a testament to the talent of the stars that this entire thing has never unraveled.

What are the relative giveaways for the Leafs at home? Do they have a higher or lower ratio of giveaways to their opponents at home?

 

[ACC1224]

If they do, they very well could win the Atlantic and get a favourable match in the 1st round - NJ or Det might be a good fit

Might need to revisit that.