How many points to make the playoffs: 2015-16 edition

[Captain Mittens*]

I don't come in here often because I only need a bi-weekly update or so, but I just want to say I tip my hat to you HansH. You put in a lot of work and you are good people.

I second that emotion

 

[HansH]

Thanks, guys!

 

[HansH]

After the games of 2/2/16:

Linear extrapolation, yadda yadda...

The target is 88 points (Coyotes on the outside looking in with 87). The Kings need a record of 10-19-3, a percentage of .359, to get there. The division target is 95 points. The Kings need a record of 14-16-2 to get that.

 

[kingsfan]

After the games of 2/2/16:

Linear extrapolation, yadda yadda...

The target is 88 points (Coyotes on the outside looking in with 87). The Kings need a record of 10-19-3, a percentage of .359, to get there. The division target is 95 points. The Kings need a record of 14-16-2 to get that.

Considering that current projections indicate we can get the divisional title by going into cruise mode, what would it take to claim the conference and even the President's trophy? Would it be possible to include that?

 

[TheSentinel]

Considering that current projections indicate we can get the divisional title by going into cruise mode, what would it take to claim the conference and even the President's trophy? Would it be possible to include that?

do we really want to test what seems to be a curse of one of those 2

 

[kingsfan]

I do. The winner attitude around this board lately is a fresh change from the pity me Oliver Twist attitude that existed pre-Stanley. El presidente!

 

[Mitchnesses]

We need 99 points so we can have a Prince party and party like it's 1999!

 

[Ollie Weeks]

Sometimes I think the Kings think like this.

 

[HansH]

Considering that current projections indicate we can get the divisional title by going into cruise mode, what would it take to claim the conference and even the President's trophy? Would it be possible to include that?

I may throw that in in later posts - but I admit feeling a little presumptuous even putting up the projections for the Division title...

 

[HansH]

After the games of 2/9/16:

Simple linear extrapolation comes up with the Kings landing no worse than P3 with 86 points (88 points would be needed for WC2). That would require 19 points in the remaining 30 games, a percentage of .317 or a record of 8-19-3.

Similarly, extrapolation would give the Kings the Pacific title with 96 points - a mark requiring a 13-14-3 record.

As requested...

Extrapolation says that landing the Western Conference title will take 112 points, requiring a record of 21-6-3 (a percentage of .750). Landing the President's Trophy would need 130 points, more than the Kings could get even going 30-0-0 (that would give them 127 points total).

If the playoff seedings were determined as of now, here's how they would look:

Minnesota (WC2, 87 pts) at Dallas (C1, 111 pts)
Nashville (WC1, 88 pts) at Los Angeles (P1, 106 pts)
St. Louis (C3, 101 pts) at Chicago (C2, 109 pts)
Anaheim (P3, 93 pts) at San Jose (P2, 95 pts)

 

[KopitarFAN]

Delete.

Reason: Post had jinx written all over it, will save for later date.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 2/14/16:

Take the current points percentage, multiply it by 82 games, and you get the following.

84 points would be enough for P3 for the Kings. That would require a record of 6-18-3 (a percentage of .278) in the remaining 27 games.

97 points would land the Kings the division title. That mark would require a record of 13-12-2 (a percentage of .519).

As requested, with no implication of eventual result:
114 points would be needed to land the conference title. That implies a record of 21-3-3 (a percentage of .833). The President's Trophy would need 129 points, which is six more than the Kings could manage going 27-0.

 

[HansH]

And for the sake of math, here's the current Western Conference playoff matchups:

Colorado (WC2, 86 pts) at Dallas (C1, 113 pts)
Nashville (WC1, 89 pts) at Los Angeles (P1, 103 pts)
St. Louis (C3, 103 pts) at Chicago (C2, 107 pts)
Anaheim (P3, 94 pts) at San Jose (P2, 96 pts)

 

[kingsfan]

It's crazy that a .500 record the rest of the way could get the Kings a division title.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 2/16/16:

Multiply current state by 82 games, and get the following:
86 points needed for the playoffs (record of 7-16-3, percentage of .327).
98 points needed for the division (record of 13-10-3, percentage of .558).
114 points needed for the conference (record of 21-2-3, percentage of .865).
129 points needed for the President's Trophy (unattainable - Kings max is 121).

Playoff matchups at this moment would be:
Colorado (WC2, 86 pts) at Dallas (C1, 113 pts)
Nashville (WC1, 89 pts) at Los Angeles (P1, 101 pts)
St. Louis (C3, 104 pts) at Chicago (C2, 108 pts)
Anaheim (P3, 97 pts) at San Jose (P2, 97 points, currently holds ROW tiebreaker over the Ducks 28-27)

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Thanks Hans!

It's crazy that a .500 record the rest of the way could get the Kings a division title.

They need to stop interpreting the projection literally.

 

[Herby]

After the games of 2/16/16:

Multiply current state by 82 games, and get the following:
86 points needed for the playoffs (record of 7-16-3, percentage of .327).
98 points needed for the division (record of 13-10-3, percentage of .558).
114 points needed for the conference (record of 21-2-3, percentage of .865).
129 points needed for the President's Trophy (unattainable - Kings max is 121).

Playoff matchups at this moment would be:
Colorado (WC2, 86 pts) at Dallas (C1, 113 pts)
Nashville (WC1, 89 pts) at Los Angeles (P1, 101 pts)
St. Louis (C3, 104 pts) at Chicago (C2, 108 pts)
Anaheim (C3, 97 pts) at San Jose (C2, 97 points, currently holds ROW tiebreaker over the Ducks 28-27)

Winning the divisions this year is going to be huge.

Those C2 vs. C3 and P2 vs. P3 first round matchups are going to be insane.

St. Louis could end up with 107 points and open on the road at Chicago, damn.

 

[AlphaBravo]

It actually wouldn't be that bad if we finished 3rd or 2nd and let Anaheim take the Pacific crown. Ideally, I would rather play Colorado in the first round, but I don't think that will happen, as either Dallas or the Blackhawks will finish first overall in the West. My second preference would be San Jose over Nashville (the 1st wildcard holder).

The worst first round matchup will be a red hot Ducks team or the Blackhawks. So if the Kings drop from the first stop, I hope the Ducks win the Pacific instead of San Jose.

 

[kingsfan]

Thanks Hans!



They need to stop interpreting the projection literally.

And how else should I be interpreting it? In Swahili?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

And how else should I be interpreting it? In Swahili?

I meant the team. They shouldn't be trying to go .500!

 

[HansH]

I meant the team. They shouldn't be trying to go .500!

Where's the "like" button for this?

 

[kingsfan28]

And how else should I be interpreting it? In Swahili?

Jive.

 

[kingsfan]

I meant the team. They shouldn't be trying to go .500!

Cool, my bad.

 

[kingsfan]

Jive.

Word my fly brother.

 

[HansH]

Jive.