How many points to make the playoffs: 2015-16 edition

[cyclones22]

Most people simply don't get this. The SAME exact record. The division got better, a few teams got hot while the underlying data showed massive regression, and the Kings were atrocious in OT/SO. A goal here and a save there gets the Kings into the playoffs. I still believe the Kings crack 100 points if Pearson doesn't go down or even if Toffoli doesn't contract mono.

Another reason to laugh at Flames fans acting like they single-handedly ruined the Kings seasons.

If the Kings don't get smoked 1-0 in Buffalo, they'd make the playoffs.

Or if they don't commit any felonies. I said this last season, perfect storm the Kings got caught in and they still just missed the playoffs with a pretty good record. All those idiots who were writing off this current Kings season acting like the Kings were an 85 point team and not 95 in 2014/2015, sure are quiet now.

 

[Reclamation Project]

Kings are on pace for 111 points. Lots of incredibly motivated guys on this team including the one Dean acquired in the offseason. This is a scary good roster. Right when you think they'll regress, they do the opposite. Dominated a December road trip in Canada.

 

[Fishhead]

The Kings should easily clinch a spot in March this year. It will be nice to actually know exactly where this team stands at the trade deadline, for once.

I don't think I've ever seen 3 teams run away with divisions so clearly in one year. Dallas, LA, and Washington have 13, 14, and 14 point leads over 4th in their divisions.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 1/10/16:

On current pace, 4th place in the Pacific will be shared by three teams, all with .500 records, thus on pace for 82 points. That would make 83 points the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs.

In order to get 83 points, the Kings need 28 points in their remaining 41 games, which translates to a percentage of .341 (or a record of 13-26-2).

(On current pace, 93 points would be enough to win the division -- that would be a record of 18-21-2).

 

[Ron*]

After the games of 1/10/16:

On current pace, 4th place in the Pacific will be shared by three teams, all with .500 records, thus on pace for 82 points. That would make 83 points the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs.

In order to get 83 points, the Kings need 28 points in their remaining 41 games, which translates to a percentage of .341 (or a record of 13-26-2).

(On current pace, 93 points would be enough to win the division -- that would be a record of 18-21-2).

If they get only 28 points in the remaining 41 games, I will be thoroughly disgusted with this team.

 

[HansH]

If they get only 28 points in the remaining 41 games, I will be thoroughly disgusted with this team.

You'd have every right to be. By comparison, the worst team (record-wise) in the first half of this season is Columbus (15-24-4), and that's STILL a .395 percentage. That pace would give 32 points.

 

[mrkolice]

hansh, can you make a table with probabilities for every pacific team to make it to the playoffs? that could be useful relatively soon, to check which teams are under the water and in must-win mode? the trends in such probabilities could also hold some useful info. thx, just an idea.

 

[guderian]

hansh, can you make a table with probabilities for every pacific team to make it to the playoffs? that could be useful relatively soon, to check which teams are under the water and in must-win mode? the trends in such probabilities could also hold some useful info. thx, just an idea.

Something like this?
www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

 

[TheSentinel]

Something like this?
www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

lol i use that too every time Hansh updates his points thread, it's a good visual.

 

[mrkolice]

Something like this?
www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

ha, thx, illiterate question. the trends in p seem really useful, but i don't get the extrapolation.

copy paste:
Los Angeles - Chance will make playoffs: 99.9%

i'll give it a better look.

 

[guderian]

ha, thx, illiterate question. the trends in p seem really useful, but i don't get the extrapolation.

copy paste:
Los Angeles - Chance will make playoffs: 99.9%

i'll give it a better look.

There is a explenation for every category

Chance will make playoffs: This is what we care about. Out of the millions of simulated seasons they made the playoffs this percentage of the time. Sums the odds for the 8 seeds left of the red "playoff cut" line.

You get better, more graphic, view if you click just on LA Kings

 

[mrkolice]

Something like this?
www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

it's a bit silly, caveman stats. basically it's a random extrapolation with two weighted variables: opponents record + home field advantage, and that's it.

chess elo formula is much better in such circumstances.

 

[mrkolice]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/nhl/sagarin/

this is better, some variables in the formula are arbitrary but still much more sophisticated. another question is how to transform it into playoffs probabilities. with a database set correctly it should be a piece of cake

 

[mrkolice]

just a final note: calculating "How many points to make the playoffs" is not a trivial question, from strictly statistical point of view. it's like asking a gipsy woman what tomorrow brings. the data from the past must be, somehow, extended into the future, and that's always arbitrary, some variables must be weighted (arbitrary), some ignored (arbitrary), and so on. it's a very complicated task if you want to do it right. and hattip to hansh for having a courage to swim in deep water, gl!

 

[HansH]

just a final note: calculating "How many points to make the playoffs" is not a trivial question, from strictly statistical point of view. it's like asking a gipsy woman what tomorrow brings. the data from the past must be, somehow, extended into the future, and that's always arbitrary, some variables must be weighted (arbitrary), some ignored (arbitrary), and so on. it's a very complicated task if you want to do it right. and hattip to hansh for having a courage to swim in deep water, gl!

Oh, I'm not doing any such complicated analysis -- you're correct that from an ACTUAL statistical point of view, it's very deep waters once you start in. But all I'm basing MY analysis on is points percentage of the various teams, and projecting that points percentage (and that only) to an 82-game season for all teams. That's VERY oversimplistic, for any true statistical analysis -- that's why I say "if current trends continue", and why this keeps adjusting the way it does. It's no good as an actual predictor, just a kind of snapshot at any given moment. But thank you for the hat tip in any case!

 

[HansH]

After the games of 1/17/16:

Linearly extrapolating current standings, Vancouver would finish 4th in the Pacific with 86 points, making the non-tiebreaker target for the playoffs 87 points for the Kings. (Nashville would finish in the 2WC spot with 87 points, making the wildcard spot no longer so much higher a bar than the 3P spot).

To get 87 points, the Kings would need a percentage of .368, or a record of 13-23-2 in their remaining 38 games.

With the same linear extrapolation, 93 points would land the Pacific Division title. That would require a record of 16-20-2 (a percentage of .447).

 

[tsanuri]

Here's the newest update on where they project points at. They use a little more through simulation that that other site.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Someone is gonna make the playoffs in the Pacific with like 10 points than we had last year further proving what a ******** perfect storm anomaly last year was

 

[Ron*]

Someone is gonna make the playoffs in the Pacific with like 10 points than we had last year further proving what a ******** perfect storm anomaly last year was

Maybe. But look at the trends in the Pacific (no longer the Pathetic). The whole division is trending up and Central is trending down. It may indeed happen 4 from each division. Wouldn't that be something, after all the crap thrown our way throughout the season.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Maybe. But look at the trends in the Pacific (no longer the Pathetic). The whole division is trending up and Central is trending down. It may indeed happen 4 from each division. Wouldn't that be something, after all the crap thrown our way throughout the season.

Wouldn't be shocking. Knew most of them would get their **** together, especially with so much youth.

Pacific is gonna be a terror just in time to coincide with our slide...2020 #1 overall pick, come on down!

 

[Ron*]

Wouldn't be shocking. Knew most of them would get their **** together, especially with so much youth.

Pacific is gonna be a terror just in time to coincide with our slide...2020 #1 overall pick, come on down!

Yeah, that's ok with me, as long as we can contend for 4 or 5 more seasons. I truly believe the team lifting the Stanley Cup this season will be (cough) Washington, Chicago, or Los Angeles. I still think Washington has something to prove in the playoffs.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 1/19/16:

Linearly extrapolating current standings, Vancouver projects to P4 AND Colorado projects to WC2, both with 85 points. That makes the tiebreaker-free target for the playoffs 86 points for the Kings, via BOTH pathways.

That would require 25 points in the remaining 37 games, which translates to a percentage of .338 and a record of 11-23-3.

Also with linear extrapolation, the target for the Kings to land the division is now 92 points, the equivalent of a record of 14-20-3 or a percentage of .419.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 1/24/16:

Our friend "linear extrapolation" shows the Ducks projecting to P4 at 87 points, making the tiebreaker-free target for the Kings a mark of 88 points. (Colorado projects to WC2 with 90 points)

That would require 25 points in the remaining 34 games - a percentage of .368 and a record of 11-20-3.

The linear extrapolation target for the division title is now 95 points, the equivalent of a percentage of .470 or a record of 15-17-2.

 

[HansH]

All-Star Break update

As of the All-Star break:

Linear projection puts the Ducks on the outside of the Pacific's bubble, on pace to get 89 points. This makes the Kings' non-tiebreaker target for the playoffs 90 points. That would require 27 points in the remaining 33 games -- a percentage of .409, or a record of 12-18-3.

(For comparison, the target for the 2nd wildcard spot in the West is 93 points, the target for the #3 spot in the Central is 101 points, the target for the 2nd wildcard in the East is 95 points, the target for the #3 Metropolitan spot is 99 points, and the target for the #3 Atlantic spot is 98 points.)

The linear extrapolation target for the Pacific division title is 97 points -- that would require of the Kings a record of 16-15-2 (a percentage of .515).

For grins and giggles, the linear extrapolation target for the Western conference title is 111 points to surpass Dallas. That would require of the Kings a record of 23-8-2 (a percentage of .727 -- their current percentage for the season lies at .642).

Were the post-season matchups to be determined by today's standings, they would be as follows:

Nashville (WC2 - 92 pts) at Dallas (C1 - 110 pts)
St. Louis (C3 - 101 pts) at Chicago (C2 - 108 pts)
Minnesota (WC1 - 92 pts) at Los Angeles (P1 - 105 pts)
Arizona (P3 - 89 pts) at San Jose (P2 - 96 pts)

(Arizona and Anaheim both project to 89 points, the Coyotes currently have the ROW tiebreaker. Nashville and Minnesota both project to 92 points, the Wild currently with the ROW tiebreaker.)

 

[kingsfan]

I don't come in here often because I only need a bi-weekly update or so, but I just want to say I tip my hat to you HansH. You put in a lot of work and you are good people.