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How many points to make the playoffs: 2015-16 edition

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After the games of 2/20/16:

Multiply current points by 82 games and you get....

The Kings need 86 points to make the playoffs (a record of 6-16-2, a percentage of .292).
They need 99 points to win the division (a record of 12-9-3, a percentage of .563).
They need 110 points to win the conference (a record of 18-4-2, a percentage of .792).
They would need 130 points to win the President's Trophy (10 points more than their maximum possible).

If the playoff seedings were established now, the matchups in the West would be:

Colorado (WC2, 89 pts) at Chicago (C1, 109 pts and current ROW tiebreaker over Dallas 37-35)
Nashville (WC1, 90 pts) at Los Angeles (P1, 102 pts)
St. Louis (C3, 106 pts) at Dallas (C2, 109 pts)
San Jose (P3, 96 pts) at Anaheim (P2, 98 pts)
 
After the games of 2/23/16:

Presto-chango-matho and....

The Kings need 83 points to make the playoffs (a record of 4-18-1, a percentage of .196).
They need 100 points to win the division (a record of 12-9-2, a percentage of .565).
They need 111 points to win the conference (a record of 18-4-1, a percentage of .804).
The President's Trophy is still out of reach (141 points needed, Kings max is 120).

The Kings' magic number is now down to 31 points - a record of 15-7-1 will get the Kings into the playoffs no matter what any other team does.

If the playoff seedings were established now, behold the glory of the Western Conference first-round matchups:

Colorado (WC2, 87 pts and a ROW lead of 29-27 over Minnesota) at Dallas (C1, 110 pts)
Nashville (WC1, 93 pts) at Los Angeles (P1, 103 pts)
St. Louis (C3, 104 pts) at Chicago (C2, 107 pts)
San Jose (P3, 98 pts) at Anaheim (P2, 99 pts)
 
After the games of 2/28/16:

The crudest of mathematical projections results in the following.

The Kings need 82 points to make the playoffs (a record of 2-18, a percentage of .100).
They need 103 points to take the division (a record of 12-7-1, a percentage of .625).
They need 108 points to take the conference (a record of 14-4-2, a percentage of .750).
The President's Trophy remains out of reach (127 points needed, Kings' max is 118).

The Kings' magic number has fallen to 25 points -- that is, regardless of any other teams' performances, a record of 12-7-1 will clinch the post-season.

If the playoff seedings were determined right now, the first round in the West would be as follows:

Colorado (87 pts, WC2) at Dallas (107 pts, C1)
Nashville (95 pts, WC1) at Los Angeles (103 pts, P1)
St. Louis (102 pts, C3) at Chicago (106 pts, C2)
San Jose (97 pts, P3) at Anaheim (102 pts, P2)
 
HansH said:
After the games of 2/28/16:

The crudest of mathematical projections results in the following.

The Kings need 82 points to make the playoffs (a record of 2-18, a percentage of .100).
They need 103 points to take the division (a record of 12-7-1, a percentage of .625).
They need 108 points to take the conference (a record of 14-4-2, a percentage of .750).
The President's Trophy remains out of reach (127 points needed, Kings' max is 118).

The Kings' magic number has fallen to 25 points -- that is, regardless of any other teams' performances, a record of 12-7-1 will clinch the post-season.

If the playoff seedings were determined right now, the first round in the West would be as follows:

Colorado (87 pts, WC2) at Dallas (107 pts, C1)
Nashville (95 pts, WC1) at Los Angeles (103 pts, P1)
St. Louis (102 pts, C3) at Chicago (106 pts, C2)
San Jose (97 pts, P3) at Anaheim (102 pts, P2)
Click to expand...

Matchups are ideal.
 
That awkward moment when you realize the 80 points they have right now might be enough for 3rd, VAN and AZ have 60 in 63 and 64 respectively.

Magic number: 19
 
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After the games of 3/7/16:

Current percentage over 82 games gives the following.

79 points would be enough to retain third place, and the Kings already have 82.
The Kings would need 106 points to take the division away from Anaheim (a record of 11-4-2, a percentage of .706).
They would need 107 points to land the conference (a record of 12-4-1, a percentage of .735).
The President's Trophy remains out of reach (Kings max is 116, but they'd need 128).

The Kings' magic number is down to 15 points - a record of 7-9-1 will get them into the playoffs regardless of any other teams' performance.

If the playoff seedings were set now, the Western first-round matchups would be:

Minnesota (88 pts, WC2) at Chicago (106 pts, C1 because of ROW tiebreaker over Dallas).
Nashville (97 pts, WC1) at Anaheim (105 pts, P1)
St. Louis (104 pts, C3) at Dallas (106 pts, C2)
San Jose (98 pts, P3) at Los Angeles (103 pts, P2)
 
gnarls barkley said:
why? Sharks always put up a decent fight at least, Nashville just rolls over and dies in the playoffs. Rather take the relatively easier series and let SJS/ANA have the brutal 7 game set to themselves for once.
Click to expand...

Sharks are proven playoff chokers. Martin Jones has zero playoff pressure experience. I would be happy with them or the Blues I guess.
 
rajuabju said:
Sharks are proven playoff chokers. Martin Jones has zero playoff pressure experience. I would be happy with them or the Blues I guess.
Click to expand...

honestly it's all the same to me outside CHI.

no one from the West in the last 5-7 years has proven that they can really win anything in pressure situations except us and CHI. I rather play a central team that doesn't know how different it is to play the Kings in an actual playoff series, instead of ANA/SJ who are both not only well aware, but have basically tooled themselves to beat us.

I guess you can say the Blues have seen us enough too, but with current standings I don't think we'd see them until WCF (correct me if I'm wrong), and I don't believe they'll come out of their side of the bracket.
 
gnarls barkley said:
honestly it's all the same to me outside CHI.

no one from the West in the last 5-7 years has proven that they can really win anything in pressure situations except us and CHI. I rather play a central team that doesn't know how different it is to play the Kings in an actual playoff series, instead of ANA/SJ who are both not only well aware, but have basically tooled themselves to beat us.

I guess you can say the Blues have seen us enough too, but with current standings I don't think we'd see them until WCF (correct me if I'm wrong), and I don't believe they'll come out of their side of the bracket.
Click to expand...

With the tear NSH has been on, they may catch STL for 3rd.
 
After the games of 3/9/16:

Take points percentage, multiply by 164, and the following mysteries are revealed...

The Kings already have more points (84, points percentage of .636) than they would need to secure third place and the playoffs (81).
They would need 104 points to win the Pacific, which would require a record of 10-6 (a percentage of .625).
They would need 107 points to win the West, which would require a record of 11-4-1 (a percentage of .719).
The President's Trophy would need 127 points, still out of reach (Kings max is 116).

KopitarFAN mentioned already that the Kings' magic number is 13 -- but actually, when you look at the tiebreakers, it's effectively down to 12 points. How, you ask? The answer is to look at the Kings and Vancouver. The Kings lead the ROW tiebreaker 38-22, and each team has 16 games remaining, meaning the best the Canucks can do is tie on that tiebreaker. The next tiebreaker is head-to-head, which the Kings lead 6 points to 3, with only one game remaining. Therefore, if the Kings get 12 points in ANY fashion, they have the tiebreaker over Vancouver, and will make the playoffs. So, a record of 6-10 is good enough to guarantee the playoffs.

Matchups:

Minnesota (88 pts, WC2 currently with a .537-.536 lead over Colorado) at Chicago (106 pts, C1 currently due to 40-38 ROW tiebreaker over Dallas)
Nashville (98 pts, WC1) at Los Angeles (104 pts, P1)
St. Louis (105 pts, C3) at Dallas (106 pts, C2)
San Jose (99 pts, P3) at Anaheim (103 pts, P2)
 
HansH said:
After the games of 3/9/16:

Take points percentage, multiply by 164, and the following mysteries are revealed...

The Kings already have more points (84, points percentage of .636) than they would need to secure third place and the playoffs (81).
They would need 104 points to win the Pacific, which would require a record of 10-6 (a percentage of .625).
They would need 107 points to win the West, which would require a record of 11-4-1 (a percentage of .719).
The President's Trophy would need 127 points, still out of reach (Kings max is 116).

KopitarFAN mentioned already that the Kings' magic number is 13 -- but actually, when you look at the tiebreakers, it's effectively down to 12 points. How, you ask? The answer is to look at the Kings and Vancouver. The Kings lead the ROW tiebreaker 38-22, and each team has 16 games remaining, meaning the best the Canucks can do is tie on that tiebreaker. The next tiebreaker is head-to-head, which the Kings lead 6 points to 3, with only one game remaining. Therefore, if the Kings get 12 points in ANY fashion, they have the tiebreaker over Vancouver, and will make the playoffs. So, a record of 6-10 is good enough to guarantee the playoffs.

Matchups:

Minnesota (88 pts, WC2 currently with a .537-.536 lead over Colorado) at Chicago (106 pts, C1 currently due to 40-38 ROW tiebreaker over Dallas)
Nashville (98 pts, WC1) at Los Angeles (104 pts, P1)
St. Louis (105 pts, C3) at Dallas (106 pts, C2)
San Jose (99 pts, P3) at Anaheim (103 pts, P2)
Click to expand...

Don't feel like looking but just something to consider on the second tie breaker. If there are an uneven number of games they throw out the earliest game that gives one team an advantage on where played. Not sure how that changes the numbers or not. But I think we only play them 5X this year.
And unless this team just folds it won't matter.
 
All I know is I'm going to throw my remote when some sub-90-point team makes the playoffs after the fates conspired to shut us out last year.
 
tsanuri said:
Don't feel like looking but just something to consider on the second tie breaker. If there are an uneven number of games they throw out the earliest game that gives one team an advantage on where played. Not sure how that changes the numbers or not. But I think we only play them 5X this year.
And unless this team just folds it won't matter.
Click to expand...

You're right, I forgot that.

As it happens, the "extra" game is in LA this year, and the one that gets left out is... the 0-3 loss to the Canucks on October 13th, making the 2nd tiebreaker even MORE clinched by the Kings (6 points to 1, one game remaining).
 
After the games of 3/13/16:

The Kings' magic number stands at 11 points - a record of 5-9-1 will punch their post-season ticket no matter what any other team does.

Points percentage (points gained / points possible) multiplied by 164 points available over a season gives the following:

82 points would project the Kings into the playoffs, which is less than the 85 points they already have.
103 points would land the Kings the Pacific title. That would require a record of 9-6 (a percentage of .600).
108 points would land the Kings the Western Conference title. That would require a record of 11-3-1 (a percentage of .767).
The President's Trophy would require 125 points, ten more than the Kings could get by running the table.

If determined this moment, first-round Western Conference matchups would be:

Minnesota (88 pts, WC2) at Dallas (107 pts, C1 due to ROW tiebreaker over St. Louis 39-36).
Nashville (96 pts, WC1) at Los Angeles (104 pts, P1)
Chicago (105 pts, C3) at St. Louis (107 pts, C2)
San Jose (99 pts, P3) at Anaheim (102 pts, P2)
 
soon it will be interesting to check the probabilities of a playoff draw. there are 3 main cup contenders in the west, los angeles + chicago + anaheim, but one team can get an easier schedule and play only against one of those two opponents. i guess the ideal scenario for lak is: 1. hawks beat the ducks 2. kings beat the hawks. hans, can you make playoff schedule probabilities table with two questions:
- p1 for lak must win both against ducks and hawks
- p2 for ducks and hawks meet first.
thx, great job you're doing!
 
After the games of 3/14/16:

The Kings' magic number stands at 7 points - a record of 3-10-1 will punch their post-season ticket no matter what any other team does.

Points percentage (points gained / points possible) multiplied by 164 points available over a season gives the following:

81 points would project the Kings into the playoffs, which is fewer than the 87 points they already have.
104 points would land the Kings the Pacific title. That would require a record of 8-5-1 (a percentage of .607).
108 points would land the Kings the Western Conference title. That would require a record of 10-3-1 (a percentage of .750).
The President's Trophy would require 125 points, ten more than the Kings could get by running the table.

If determined this moment, first-round Western Conference matchups would be:

Minnesota (88 pts, WC2) at Dallas (107 pts, C1).
Nashville (97 pts, WC1) at Los Angeles (105 pts, P1)
Chicago (103 pts, C3) at St. Louis (105 pts, C2)
San Jose (99 pts, P3) at Anaheim (103 pts, P2)
 
mrkolice said:
soon it will be interesting to check the probabilities of a playoff draw. there are 3 main cup contenders in the west, los angeles + chicago + anaheim, but one team can get an easier schedule and play only against one of those two opponents. i guess the ideal scenario for lak is: 1. hawks beat the ducks 2. kings beat the hawks. hans, can you make playoff schedule probabilities table with two questions:
- p1 for lak must win both against ducks and hawks
- p2 for ducks and hawks meet first.
thx, great job you're doing!
Click to expand...

I think for that scenario to play out, the Ducks would have to win the Pacific division and the Hawks would have to slip into a wildcard spot. That's the only way Chicago could cross divisional lines and play the Ducks before we would even have the chance to play either of them, assuming we get to round 2. It's unlikely Chicago slips down that far. Otherwise it is highly likely that our path would have to go through both were we to win the necessary series.
 
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