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How many points to make the playoffs: 2015-16 edition

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thx, it was an idiotic question from my part, as i simply forgot that in r2 pacific meets pacific. still paying a toll for not qualifying last season i guess. but so be it, it's a romantic justice in a schedule so tough, and as a poet said: beat the best to prove that you deserve it.

so very probably the playoff route for lak will be:
r1: ?
r2: ducks
r3: hawks
r4: capitals
 
mrkolice said:
thx, it was an idiotic question from my part, as i simply forgot that in r2 pacific meets pacific. still paying a toll for not qualifying last season i guess. but so be it, it's a romantic justice in a schedule so tough, and as a poet said: beat the best to prove that you deserve it.

so very probably the playoff route for lak will be:
r1: ?
r2: ducks
r3: hawks
r4: capitals
Click to expand...

It's not idiotic at all :) The Hawks haven't looked good in the last two games, and if that is a trend there is a very outside chance they slip down. I wouldn't bet against the Hawks though. They always find a way.

IF we can win the division, our most likely first round opponent is Nashville due to the current point spread. It would take a lot for Nashville to fall behind Minnesota or Colorado (both 9 points behind Nashville), and it would take a lot to move ahead of Chicago if Chicago takes care of business (they're 5 points ahead of Nashville). Hawks would have to lose 3 in regulation while Nashville would have to win 3. Possible, but not likely.
 
i've checked the numbers a bit, and it's really on chicago, their destiny is in their own hands and i also believe that they will not blow it. still, i'm not sure about the toughness of the central pod.

If the playoffs started today... (via http://thestudyofsports.com/nhlplayoffs.html)

M1. Washington Capitals vs
M4. Detroit Red Wings
M2. New York Rangers vs
M3. New York Islanders
A1. Boston Bruins vs
A4. Pittsburgh Penguins
A2. Tampa Bay Lightning vs
A3. Florida Panthers
C1. Dallas Stars vs
C4. Colorado Avalanche
C2. St Louis Blues vs
C3. Chicago Blackhawks
P1. Los Angeles Kings vs
P4. Nashville Predators
P2. Anaheim Ducks vs
P3. San Jose Sharks
 
KingsKnight said:
It's not idiotic at all :) The Hawks haven't looked good in the last two games, and if that is a trend there is a very outside chance they slip down. I wouldn't bet against the Hawks though. They always find a way.

IF we can win the division, our most likely first round opponent is Nashville due to the current point spread. It would take a lot for Nashville to fall behind Minnesota or Colorado (both 9 points behind Nashville), and it would take a lot to move ahead of Chicago if Chicago takes care of business (they're 5 points ahead of Nashville). Hawks would have to lose 3 in regulation while Nashville would have to win 3. Possible, but not likely.
Click to expand...

Depending on how we do tonight it's just as possible that the Kings win the Conference. That would put the Kings 2 points back with 2 in hand. And of course just a small falter and we could be second in the division. It's really just that tight overall.
But short of a total meltdown we're in the playoffs anyway. Just a matter of where.
 
tsanuri said:
Depending on how we do tonight it's just as possible that the Kings win the Conference. That would put the Kings 2 points back with 2 in hand. And of course just a small falter and we could be second in the division. It's really just that tight overall.
But short of a total meltdown we're in the playoffs anyway. Just a matter of where.
Click to expand...

Oh wow, didn't realize we were that close. We could end up with Minnesota or Colorado just as easily as Nashville. Of course, that's if we take care of business.
 
After games of 3/15/16:

The Kings would need 104 points for the Pacific, a record of 7-5-1 (a percentage of .577).
The Kings would need 106 points for the Western Conference, a record of 8-4-1 (a percentage of .654).

First-round playoff matchups would be:

Minnesota (88 pts, WC2) at Los Angeles (106 pts, P1)
San Jose (100 pts, P3) at Anaheim (103 pts, P2)
Nashville (97 pts, WC1) at Dallas (105 pts, C1 due to 39-36 ROW tiebreaker)
Chicago (103 pts, C3) at St. Louis (105 pts, C2)

That's right -- with tonight's results, the Kings moved into on pace to win the conference #1 seed. Barely. .645 to .641. Enjoy the moment that this remains true :)

(Conference magic number - 25 pts)
 
Even though VAN lost, the magic number is still 5, because AZ is now the control team in 4th in terms of max points.

Feel free to correct me, HansH.
 
tsanuri said:
Depending on how we do tonight it's just as possible that the Kings win the Conference. That would put the Kings 2 points back with 2 in hand. And of course just a small falter and we could be second in the division. It's really just that tight overall.
But short of a total meltdown we're in the playoffs anyway. Just a matter of where.
Click to expand...

It's just nice that we're fighting over seeding this time instead of seed or no seed period :laugh:
 
KopitarFAN said:
Nope, 3. AZ max points is 93 and they have 30 ROW putting them only 11 back with 12 to go, so have to get to 94.
Click to expand...

That's how I read the math as well (and I believe the Yotes have the head to head tiebreaker clinched). That said, any kind of win by the Kings tonight combined with any loss by the Yotes would mathematically punch the postseason tickets.
 
Ticket punched.

Magic number to clinch 2nd in the pacific is 16, to win the pacific is 19. (Keep in mind, most points the Kings can earn on their own is 22)

Correct me if I am wrong, HansH.
 
After the games of 3/19/16:
The Kings have clinched no worse than P3.

Home Ice:
100 points is the pace to get home ice in the first round (a record of 3-7-1).
As KF pointed out correctly, 16 points are needed to _clinch_ first-round home ice.

Pacific Division Title:
103 points is the pace to land the division title (a record of 5-6).
As KF pointed out, 19 points are needed to _clinch_ the Pacific title.

Western Conference Title:
108 points is the pace to land the conference title (a record of 7-3-1).
The Kings' magic number to clinch the conference title is 21 points -- meaning if the Kings go 10-0-1, they will get it no matter what any other team does.

Current First-Round Western Conference Playoff Matchups:
Colorado (WC2, 89 pts) at Los Angeles (P1, 107 pts and current ROW tiebreaker over Dallas 42-41 along with percentage lead of .655-.651)
San Jose (P3, 99 pts) at Anaheim (P2, 102 pts)
Nashville (WC1, 97 pts) at Dallas (C1, 107 pts)
Chicago (C3, 103 pts) at St. Louis (C2, 104 pts)
 
So, it's actually very possible for us to draw Minnesota/Colorado/Nashville in the 1st round, and also possible for the Hawks to play the Ducks in that same 1st round. That'd be AMAZING!!!!
 
Basilisk said:
So, it's actually very possible for us to draw Minnesota/Colorado/Nashville in the 1st round, and also possible for the Hawks to play the Ducks in that same 1st round. That'd be AMAZING!!!!
Click to expand...

Half right. Yes it is very possible for us to win the conference and draw one of those, likely Minnesota/Colorado. Since Nashville seems kind of locked in to the number 1 wild card.
But no the Hawks and Ducks could only play in the first round if the Ducks win the division but not the conference and Chicago fell to the wild card 1 spot.
 
tsanuri said:
But no the Hawks and Ducks could only play in the first round if the Ducks win the division but not the conference and Chicago fell to the wild card 1 spot.
Click to expand...
Well, no -- there's technically another way, but it's a REAL longshot. If Chicago won the Central and LA the Pacific, and somehow Anaheim fell to fourth in the Pacific but still into a wildcard spot, then LA could play one wildcard from the Central, and Chicago one from the Pacific, but SO MUCH would have to happen that just isn't going to happen.
 
HansH said:
Well, no -- there's technically another way, but it's a REAL longshot. If Chicago won the Central and LA the Pacific, and somehow Anaheim fell to fourth in the Pacific but still into a wildcard spot, then LA could play one wildcard from the Central, and Chicago one from the Pacific, but SO MUCH would have to happen that just isn't going to happen.
Click to expand...

Yes that's the real long shot. The ducks would have to basically lose every game left as the first piece.
 
I would love to see Minny or Colorado in the first round. That'd be fantastic for LA. Sutter would eat Roy alive in a seven (cough, four) game series.
 
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