How many jobs are on the line?

[Stinger8]

Wrong question there OP .
How many are ? equals none unfortunately .
How many should be ? is the correct question , the answer is at least 3 .
When this team went in the tank on purpose to retool the management group stood up and made a promise to the fans that this wouyld be a 5 year rebuild there would be no shortcuts but the pain would be worth it .
That promise was broken after year one when having had a good year they reigns were turned over to a hipster duffus who ran out and spent 11 million on an aging center as a win now deal which has failed us miserably .
There needs to be accountability from the top down so start with Shanny , Dumbass and Keefe then let the new group evaluate our roster and propose a new path forward .

^^^^
This. Shanahan signs off on everything. His GM, his responsibility. I would not be surprised if Dubas went on to be an excellent GM somewhere else. This experience significantly over valuing metrics and pure skill, which costs him his job will force to understand the value of courage. desire, passion in a player and losing a big time job will drill that into his thick skull. Shanny gone, Dubas gone, Keefe gone lets get a fresh start with a seasoned GM

 

[seventieslord]

Garbage time? No offence but that's soft. Those 2 goals gave us a legit shot at making a come back pulling the goalie. One extra goal there and things suddenly get interesting.

Nylander had 0 garbage points this playoffs. You're wrong. Trying for a comeback is not garbage time especially in the playoffs. Not taking the offside ruined everything.

No. This is apologetic nonsense.

With 17.5 minutes left to go in a 5-0 game, your win probability is well under 1%.
With 17.5 minutes left to go in a 5-1 game, your win probability, though higher, is still well under 1%.

Counting Nylander's 1-0 goal as though it had anything to do with changing the outcome of a game or series is complete hogwash.

Honestly, even making it 5-2 with 8 minutes left would have put us at well under 1% likelihood of winning. Those are the exact definition of garbage time goals.

 

[seventieslord]

The league took Clifford.and Simmonds out of the lineup and with them a hard forecheck and energy for the team.

Honestly, can either of those guys catch anyone on the Lightning to hit them cleanly? I never saw it happen.

Simmonds can sure walk into a scrum and stick guys in the face and cross check them in the back, though. Super tough and courageous, eh? It really takes a tough guy like Simmonds to do that.

I can appreciate tough guys playing tough hockey, but "tough hockey" includes the word "hockey" and neither of them can do that effectively anymore.

there will be plenty of options available to add actual toughness to the lineup. Neither of these guys were the answer this year and they sure as shit aren't the answer going forward.

I mean even burke has contributed more useful parts to this team then dubas.

Rielly, and..... ???

This NMC that he gave is unforgivable IMO. You can't give him a short 5yr term AND the NMC in the final year. It had to be one or the other. Giving him both means he can just walk for nothing and I can't believe he thought that was a smart move. Of all the stupid things he did with contracts...that was the worst.

Does it even matter though? The 23-24 Leafs are going to be a contending playoff team. They will do everything they can to sign Matthews and if they can't.... well, too bad. They're going to load up and go into the playoffs all hands on deck, expecting to lose him for nothing. There was no realistic scenario in which they'd want to move him in year 5.

Alright, after the series done and the results still is the Groundhog Day.... I just want to say one thing about the job lost.

Personally for me, you gotta make one big change to advance. You gotta sacrifice one or two of your main pieces to win the chips.

Let's see how previous champs did it:

2021 Lightning - They did it without Shattenkirk.
2020 Lightning - They did it without JT Miller and Dan Girardi
2019 Blues - They did it without David Backes (and he is on the opposing sides in the final)
2018 Caps - They did it without Mojo
2017 Pens - They did it without Fehr and Miss Letang in the playoffs entirely
2016 Pens - They did it without Dupuis and David Perron
2015 Hawks - The only team without major sacrifice.
2014 Kings - They have to sacrifice Scrivens for depth since Quick came back and Jones shows similar potential
2013 Hawks - They did it without Byfuglien and Ladd
2012 Kings - They did it without Jack Johnson
2011 Bruins - They did it without Blake Wheeler
2010 Hawks - They did it without Martin Havlat

Basically, each previous 11 champs have something they sacrifice from their core (and that player performs amazingly well in the season prior to their transfer)

If you ask me - so, who? I give you the answer - I don't know. No one knows. Your management has to figure it out. But, most of the championship team lost someone that really good for the sake of the balance and for the "playoffs calibre plays".

I don't mean to blow it out. But, make one significant sacrifice. That's what I say.

A lot of these are real reaches. All you are demonstrating is that no team ever goes into one season without the exact same lineup as the season before.

Havlat was just a stopgap player taken in a salary dump and was never seen as a part of the solution going forward.
Wheeler was just some replaceable cog on the 2nd line and they got a similar player back.
Jack Johnson?? You might want to review the details of the trade that saw him leave LA.
Byfuglien and Ladd were cap casualties from three years before.
Scrivens??? LOLOLOLOL
Dupuis was a replaceable, aging limited player who was just taking up space in the middle six. Perron was never a part of the Pens' "core", he was a ringer brought in the previous year and was traded for a guy who fit the team like a glove on their cup runs.
Fehr was nothing but a fringe player by then. Letang is the only example of a core player you've provided here, and they didn't exactly choose to lose him.
Johansson was a cap casualty, they'd have preferred to keep him.
Backes had already been gone for 3 years. He was hardly "sacrificed". He was once part of the core but he was well past that when they let him go as a UFA.
Miller was a cap casualty. Like 31 other NHL teams, Lightning would love to have him.
Girardi was so cooked by 2017, never mind 2019. No one sacrificed him, they just didn't re-sign him and he retired.
Shattenkirk? Oh no, what will the Lightning do without their 3rd pairing PP specialist defenseman? What a sacrifice they made there.

To recap. Most of these guys were simply allowed to walk as a UFA or retired, or were let go for cap reasons. The ones who weren't, who were traded with the on-ice product in mind, were Wheeler, Johnson, and Perron. None of those were "core" players. None of them were among the six best players in the organization when moved. Heck, I don't think any of the other players you mentioned were, either. Letang, obviously, but he shouldn't have even been mentioned.

And that's what you really mean to say the Leafs should do, right? Sacrifice a core player? A "main piece" as you said? Well, you might be right. there are many of scenarios in which moving Marner, Nylander, Rielly, or Tavares could turn out positively.

But, nothing else you said in this post provided any real supporting evidence of that. If we were in an alternate reality where the 2019 Lightning traded Stamkos after the sweep, or the 2015 Penguins moved Malkin after 6 years of early exits, or the 2014 Hawks moved on from Keith, then sure you'd be onto something. But in almost every single case, the six most important players on all those teams the years before they won, were the same in the years that they did win.

 

[TorMapleJays]

Getting rid of Kadri was addition by subtraction, the dude is a moron. But otherwise I agree with you.

There's two seemingly minor moves that really stick out to me that prove Dubas can't build a winning team:

The first was Marchment for Malgin. At the time of the trade it was a swap of two mediocre prospects. But he traded away the player who can fill a 4th line roll playing a physical brand of hockey for Malgin, who was another small skill player that didn't pan out. Marchment turning into what he has is just the icing on the cake.

The second was draft Amirov over Schneider. This team needed a physical right handed d-man, and instead Dubas yet again opts for the small skilled forward, as if this team somehow doesn't have enough of them. And now Schneider is playing on a playoff team while Amirov is in Russia (and still would've been even if he were healthy)

Kadri is everything we are missing in this team, and everything Dubas does not value because he is hip to progression.

Smartest man in the room, just ask him.

 

[TorMapleJays]

Perfect example of why arguing with people on the internet is pointless. I'm now being labeled a fanboy by not knee-jerking.

By the way, how did Lou's team do this year?

Compared to the last two seasons of conference championships?

if you are going to chirp, do your homework first.

 

[seventieslord]

Dubas:

Trades Marleau + a 1st for temporary (less than a year) of cap relief
Trades Durzi and a 1st for Muzzin
Trades Kadri for Kerfoot and a year of Barrie
Trades Marchment for Malgin LOL
Trades Brown and Zaitsev for Ceci LOL
Trades Kapanen for 3 guys who never pan out and a 1st
Trades Martin for nothing and creates a huge hole on the 4th line
Trades a 1st rounder for 11 games of Foligno, a fourth line plug LOL
Trades Trevor Moore for Campbell (Best trade was a wash at best LOLOLOL)

Lets Andersen walk to a .930 season in Carolina, Signs useless Simmonds instead of Perry, Signed Mrazek to a literally insane contract, signed Matthews to the most player friendly deal in the NHL, Trades for McCann only to expose and lose him for nothing LOL

I mean that's just off the top of my head. Honestly, I think it's hilarious that any of you still have faith in Kyle Dubas. I thought Bergevin was bad but he never had the chance to squander as many assets as Kyle has. One of the most overrated GMs I've ever seen in hockey.

Keefe is a horrible coach btw. His comment about getting more handshake respect is the most pathetic line of copium I've seen in a long time. Junior run pro team. Hilarious

Not to mention draining all the energy off your top line before the final minute

Trading Marleau was probably the only way were were going to fit Marner in the lineup at that price. It was the best deal he could make, and it was to clean up someone else's awful move.

Durzi being 23 and Muzzin being 32 is probably going to make that deal look worse as time goes on. But as it stands, Durzi is just a green #4 d-man for an average team. He could be better than Muzzin one day, perhaps even next year. but he's not now. He was a Kings lottery ticket that panned out. Good for him.

Kadri had to go. Who can say whether that's the best deal he could get? No, it didn't work out. But the pressure was on to make a change after losing two series the way they did. Kadri was an obvious scapegoat.

Marchment for Malgin was a nothing trade at the time, as neither player was bound to feature in the Leafs' plans anytime soon. Shitty how it worked out. Probably should have just hung onto him because all we knew for sure was that he had bottom-six toughness potential, which we can always use.

Getting rid of Zaitsev on that contract was absolutely essential. Had to take Ceci back for a year. thank goodness he's not here taking up a top-4 roster spot of 4.5M of cap space. Reminder that this was cleaning up a mess Lou made.

Kapanen for a 1st was a HUGE net positive. We couldn't afford him and we have a steady, reliable stream of bottom six caliber players to take his place. A perfect example of taking advantage of strong drafting and development.

Martin for nothing? That's what he's worth.

Foligno trade was proably the worst move Dubas ever made. It was awful then and it's worse now.

A vanilla bottom six forward for Jack Campbell is a huge win. Campbell was only ever meant to be a backup. Unfortunately, he played at a very high level almost immediately after arriving, and Andersen went in the tank. Without a doubt, Campbell was better from Feb. 2020 to May 2021. You absolutely have to let Andersen walk and see if there's fire under that smoke with Campbell. Lo and behold, Andersen turns out to be the better goalie after all. But how the f*** were we supposed to know that? We had over a year of data that showed pretty conclusively that Andersen was washed, and Campbell deserved to be the guy. Putting all our eggs in that basket was the bigger mistake. He needed support, it obviously couldn't be Andersen, but it shouldn't have been Mrazek, either.

Signing useless Simmonds instead of Perry was a massive blunder, if true.

Signing Mrazek to that deal was unfathomably bad.

The McCann thing was just... odd. Just let Seattle have a player. They're not getting anyone indispensable anyway.

what I've noticed about Dubas is, the smaller the move, the better it usually is. The bigger the move, the worse it usually is. Think about it, what are the biggest moves Dubas has made?

- The JT signing (horrible)
- The Marner extension (horrible number and badly handled)
- The Foligno deal (inexcusable with Hall available for less)
- The Matthews extension (good money, bad term)
- The Rielly extension (will be bad)

The medium sized moves, are hit and miss. Or they're "good but might end up bad". The Muzzin deal. The Nylander deal and promising not to trade him. Nick Ritchie. The Muzzin extension. The Brodie Signing. The Kadri deal. Marleau dump. Zaitsev deal.

these little moves always seem to be great. Bunting, Kase, Kampf, Knies, Giordano, Kapanen, Campbell, etc.

He has this knack for making really dollar-savvy moves to round out the roster and ice a lineup that is cap-compliant. But - and this is a really important "but" - the only reason he even has to do this is because of how much money he committed to just four forwards, prime among them John Tavares!

 

[Gabriel426]

No. This is apologetic nonsense.

With 17.5 minutes left to go in a 5-0 game, your win probability is well under 1%.
With 17.5 minutes left to go in a 5-1 game, your win probability, though higher, is still well under 1%.

Counting Nylander's 1-0 goal as though it had anything to do with changing the outcome of a game or series is complete hogwash.

Honestly, even making it 5-2 with 8 minutes left would have put us at well under 1% likelihood of winning. Those are the exact definition of garbage time goals.

Not disagreeing with you but didn't we lost a playoff game/series down 4-1 with 10mins left. Also didn't we won a playoff game down three goals with 6mins left.
Yes, they are really nothing but participation goals but it applies to every Leafs on the ice and somehow, Willie got two while the rest didn't

 

[seventieslord]

Columbus was the better team in the play-in year

Yikes. This is how low our expectations are. The fact that we even have to make an excuse that "Columbus was the better team", I think, makes me sicker than anything I've read in this entire thread.

Plus, there are way more regular season games than play off games...so I'd rather be good in the regular season.

Well, now we know what Kyle Dubas' HFboards username is. ^^^

Not disagreeing with you but didn't we lost a playoff game/series down 4-1 with 10mins left. Also didn't we won a playoff game down three goals with 6mins left.
Yes, they are really nothing but participation goals but it applies to every Leafs on the ice and somehow, Willie got two while the rest didn't

Those were three goal deficits, not five. The likelihood of winning a game gets exponentially lower with every goal behind you are. Studies have been done on this. Garbage time is a real thing.

 

[Gabriel426]

Yikes. This is how low our expectations are. The fact that we even have to make an excuse that "Columbus was the better team", I think, makes me sicker than anything I've read in this entire thread.



Well, now we know what Kyle Dubas' HFboards username is. ^^^



Those were three goal deficits, not five. The likelihood of winning a game gets exponentially lower with every goal behind you are. Studies have been done on this. Garbage time is a real thing.

after Willie getting those two goals, it became a three goals deficits.
Anyhow, like I said, I am not disagreeing with you in general bc scoring a goal in the last minute while down 3 goals is a lot different than scoring one in the last minute when the game is tie.

 

[seventieslord]

Total garbage time points in the series...

Matthews 4
Rielly 3
Marner 2
Nylander 2
Muzzin 2
Brodie 2
Tavares 1
Kerfoot 1
Kase 1
Mikheyev 1
Engvall 1
Blackwell 1

Total points in this series, garbage time excluded...

Marner 6
Tavares 5
Matthews 5
Nylander 5
Rielly 3
Mikheyev 3
Bunting 3
Engvall 2
Kase 2
Kampf 2
Giordano 2

that's everyone with more than 1.

 

[The Masters]

I agree, winning the cup is the goal.

But so far dubas has not shown the capability to even win a single round.

You need to win four series to get your name on the cup. Dubas has zero wins in four years.

In 2020, the Leafs had the exact same points% as Columbus but had a positive goal for / against ratio and had the better stretch leading to the PO qualifier.

As well the jackets had just lost their #1 goalie, their #1 player and their #1C. We should've stomped them.

The Habs series was disgusting.

The results show that dubas is not making this team better. He needs to be fired.

Lou has accomplished 10x more than dubas has.

Even in the last 3 years, Lou has had his team reach the semi finals twice. Has won gm of the year twice as well.

Yet you and the dubas fan boys think dubas is far better than Lou.

It's amazing how you can ignore all the results and facts and instead go with your emotions. It's sad.



Right, shanny told someone to be the head coach, paid him as such and fired him. But he didn't hire him to be coach.

I'm not sure what you're on, but it sounds like some grade A copium.

clueless. Lol @ thinking a Interim Horacheck counts towards Shanny's "hired" coaches. Even by definition that's false since he was interim. You gotta better understand how sports management works

 

[Amadeus]

I don't think there will be any changes to management this offseason. I think Keefe will have another year. If not he's gone and Spencer Carberry is going to take over.

 

[Mr_Fun]

Not making big changes is very risky.

How do we know that things will be any different with the same core coached by the same guy? We could win the division next year, we probably will, actually, and get to face a wildcard team. Watch it be the Bruins, and we somehow lose a 1-0 game to them in game 7 at home. Marchand with the goal.

Making big changes is also very risky!

How do we know we didn't already have the right mix and just lost to an excellent team in a coin flip series? How do we know that a Leafs team that emerges from this series didn't have a run in them? Florida is fragile; that could have been a quick series, for all we know. In an attempt to shake up everything and take a new approach, we could screw everything up.

And either way, our young core is another year older and AM34 is a year away from commanding 14M or leaving for nothing (probably the latter).

There are definitely some tough decisions to be made here. I think how Tampa plays the rest of the playoffs may have some influence on some of those decisions. If Tampa goes on to win the cup, a strong argument can be made that we should stick to our guns - although there are some that want big changes made regardless and that's totally understandable.

 

[CaptainCrunch17]

In isolation, the Tampa loss is a normally played, hard fought loss, but the original sin of Columbus and Montreal still looms large. There's no atoning for those no show performances without a deep playoff run, and there was never an proportionate punishment to the core to change it up, so we're stuck in the same holding pattern.

The current Leafs squad unfortunately seems to often play down to the level of their opponents.

I think that’s why we saw the best Leaf playoff effort to date as they were playing arguably the best team in the league.

Would they have had that same effort against an underwhelming 8th seed?

Based on past performances, probably not.

 

[saffronleaf]

The current Leafs squad unfortunately seems to often play down to the level of their opponents.

I think that’s why we saw the best Leaf playoff effort to date as they were playing arguably the best team in the league.

Would they have had that same effort against an underwhelming 8th seed?

Based on past performances, probably not.

yup this is why the team loses no matter what. no matter who they play. they will lose 100%. it could be an ECHL team and they'll play down to them and lose. It could be a very good team like Tampa or Boston and they'd play up to them and lose. The one consistent thing is losing, always, without question.

 

[CaptainCrunch17]

I don't think there will be any changes to management this offseason. I think Keefe will have another year. If not he's gone and Spencer Carberry is going to take over.

And that will leave us with one year left to go on Matthews current contract.

If the Leafs fail once again, that unfortunately might be the end of the Matthews era.

 

[67leafs]

What if Tampa loses to the Panthers?

They won’t
panthers barely got past washington

 

[Stephen]

The current Leafs squad unfortunately seems to often play down to the level of their opponents.

I think that’s why we saw the best Leaf playoff effort to date as they were playing arguably the best team in the league.

Would they have had that same effort against an underwhelming 8th seed?

Based on past performances, probably not.

I think we have a lot of behavioral evidence that this team's psychology is kind of wired the wrong way. It's the reward center isn't focused on winning, the thrill of winning and always winning and winning at all costs but being great, feeling good and only applying themselves when up for a challenge.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

No. This is apologetic nonsense.

With 17.5 minutes left to go in a 5-0 game, your win probability is well under 1%.
With 17.5 minutes left to go in a 5-1 game, your win probability, though higher, is still well under 1%.

Counting Nylander's 1-0 goal as though it had anything to do with changing the outcome of a game or series is complete hogwash.

Honestly, even making it 5-2 with 8 minutes left would have put us at well under 1% likelihood of winning. Those are the exact definition of garbage time goals.

Wow I really hope we never adopt this kind of mentality.

Guess all those goals we scored in the Jackets come back are all garbage goals then, because of probability and all that.

The team made an effort to come back when Nylander scored those 2 goals. I don't think you know what garbage time means in sports.

 

[CaptainCrunch17]

Not making big changes is very risky.

How do we know that things will be any different with the same core coached by the same guy? We could win the division next year, we probably will, actually, and get to face a wildcard team. Watch it be the Bruins, and we somehow lose a 1-0 game to them in game 7 at home. Marchand with the goal.

Making big changes is also very risky!

How do we know we didn't already have the right mix and just lost to an excellent team in a coin flip series? How do we know that a Leafs team that emerges from this series didn't have a run in them? Florida is fragile; that could have been a quick series, for all we know. In an attempt to shake up everything and take a new approach, we could screw everything up.

And either way, our young core is another year older and AM34 is a year away from commanding 14M or leaving for nothing (probably the latter).

I think perspectives and assessments may change if Tampa Bay fails to advance to the Stanley Cup finals once again.

Hypothetically speaking, what is Tampa gets bounced by Florida fairly decisively?

Do the Leafs still look like they were one game away from a run towards the cup and were only stopped by the B2B champs?

Probably not. At that point, assessments of the current team and coaching might completely change and perhaps major changes might be seen as being required.

 

[CaptainCrunch17]

^^^^
This. Shanahan signs off on everything. His GM, his responsibility. I would not be surprised if Dubas went on to be an excellent GM somewhere else. This experience significantly over valuing metrics and pure skill, which costs him his job will force to understand the value of courage. desire, passion in a player and losing a big time job will drill that into his thick skull. Shanny gone, Dubas gone, Keefe gone lets get a fresh start with a seasoned GM

Spreadsheets and advanced analytics aren’t very good at measuring human intangibles, although some will try to convince us otherwise.

 

[Stephen]

And that will leave us with one year left to go on Matthews current contract.

If the Leafs fail once again, that unfortunately might be the end of the Matthews era.

Matthews is one of my top 3 favorite Leafs of all time, but I don't think the first 6 years of his era have gone according to plan.

 

[Lightsol]

Total points in this series, garbage time excluded...

Marner 6
Tavares 5
Matthews 5
Nylander 5
Rielly 3
Mikheyev 3
Bunting 3
Engvall 2
Kase 2
Kampf 2
Giordano 2

that's everyone with more than 1.

Kind of shoots to shit the claim that the core didn't show up this playoffs, doesn't it? The issue is they got nothing out of anyone else...

 

[ShaneFalco]

Kind of shoots to shit the claim that the core didn't show up this playoffs, doesn't it? The issue is they got nothing out of anyone else...

Or the issue is they cant properly provide a supporting cast because of the core

 

[justashadowof]

I read above about putting the team philosophy directly on the shoulders of the GM but I disagree. This goes down to the president who hired the GM and approved the GM's hockey philosophy. IMO it's the president who goes first in this scenario. It's picking at old scabs here but did Shanny forget how he played? Did he forget the importance of his championship teams' support talent and the grit/bravery/intensity of those teams' star players?

Anyways, the president goes and is replaced by a hockey man who has been NHL GM before. The hiring/firing decisions are made after that change.