How many 60 goal seasons will Auston Matthews put up in his career?

[super6646]

Not everyone is superstitious.

Gaudreau is going to hit 100. Matthews is going to hit 60.

I don't believe in that sort of stuff either Just saying though that it seems rather unnecessarily hubristic.

 

[filinski77]

2014-2015 is one of Crosby’s worst full regular season of his career. His PPG from the year prior dropped from 1,3 to 1,09. He did not separate himself from the pack at all (0,01 over 2nd, 0,04 over 5th and 0,12 over 10th). Adjusting his season to McDavid and Matthews’ paces just isn’t right. There are no perfect adjusting metrics to compare players from different eras, which is why the only way to compare them is by looking at their dominance vs their peers.

Ovechkin 2015
G/GP Lead over

#2: 0,122
#3: 0,130
#5: 0,161
#10: 0,205
#20: 0,262

Matthews 2022
G/GP Lead over

#2: 0,172
#3: 0,195
#5: 0,223
#10: 0,283
#20: 0,338

Thats the most unbiased way of viewing things. I agree with you that the top scorers benefit a little bit more than the other players when playing in a high scoring era, but adjusting their scoring that way while ignoring everything else is just a huge reach. OV would’ve been more likely flirting with 60 instead of being a sure bet for 65. Still a level below the season Matthews is having right now.

Crosby was still #1 in points/gp. It’s irrelevant that he dropped from the season before. He was still #1, and an adjustment to put him at #3 this year is extremely logical.

And please don’t create a straw man. At no point did I say Ovi’s 2015 was better than Matthews now. I was simply stating that any reasonable adjustment would make that season a 60 goal season in todays environment.

I agree dominance vs peers is important and extremely valuable. You’re also using it incorrectly. Use % leads instead of raw leads. Since % leads reflect the varying scoring differences. It’s essentially recognizing that a 0.1 goal/gp lead is more dominant in a lower scoring era than it is in a higher scoring era.

 

[TropicOfNoReturn]

Zero

 

[bobbyking]

Exactly. Wait till he gets to 60 before making this thread.

Its like me asking "how many 100 pt seasons will Gaudreau have" when Gaudreau is at 99 rn. Yes, he'll most likely make it (even more likely than Matthews hitting 60), but still...

theres really no difference between a 95 point player and a 100 point player

 

[Strangle]

Crosby was still #1 in points/gp. It’s irrelevant that he dropped from the season before. He was still #1, and an adjustment to put him at #3 this year is extremely logical.

And please don’t create a straw man. At no point did I say Ovi’s 2015 was better than Matthews now. I was simply stating that any reasonable adjustment would make that season a 60 goal season in todays environment.

I agree dominance vs peers is important and extremely valuable. You’re also using it incorrectly. Use % leads instead of raw leads. Since % leads reflect the varying scoring differences. It’s essentially recognizing that a 0.1 goal/gp lead is more dominant in a lower scoring era than it is in a higher scoring era.

It’s not logical at all, though.

If Crosby scored more points he would rank higher. Crosby is still playing in this league, are you saying that his ppg this year would be equivalent to like a 60 point season in 2015?

Adjusted stats are really just “point share” stats, it’s not based in any reality

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Should get 1 this season.

However, who knows how the league will go. Maybe they open up the game a bit more and he can get another 3-5, or maybe the league will adapt more defensive strategies and he won't get another one.

 

[Canes]

Hard to say, the type of hockey being played in 5-10 years could be drastically different than the hockey being played today.

 

[filinski77]

Taking league average scoring and making goals/points count for more or less than another player just isn’t required. We have actual numbers in order to count, and in the NHL an assist is worth 1 point and a goal is worth 1 point. They aren’t worth 1.14, or 0.63 of a point. They are worth 1 whole point.

If league scoring goes up, it’s because the players are scoring more. Good for them, this is what everyone is trying to do.

If league scoring goes down, it’s also reflective of the players on the ice simply not scoring as much. There are a lot of reasons for this, but none of it is external. It’s all done by the players on the ice.

This argument is based on 0 statistics, and a lack of common sense with regards to scoring rates and how things change with rules, equipment, systems etc.

Please go make a main thread board and ask if a peak level, lead the league in points/gp Crosby would be at Kadri/Josi/Kaprizov level in todays era.

 

[Strangle]

Should get 1 this season.

However, who knows how the league will go. Maybe they open up the game a bit more and he can get another 3-5, or maybe the league will adapt more defensive strategies and he won't get another one.

Who is ‘they’? The league? How have they opened up the game recently? They took out the two-line pass years ago

I’m starting to see a parallel between society and this era adjusted mentality. In a world where people are more and more believing in society determining individual outcomes, instead of individuals determining their own outcomes, the obsession with adjusted stats starts to make more sense.

When you believe everything happens to you, and goal scoring in the NHL is just something that happens to players, I guess I can at least see where it’s coming from.

It’s still super dumb though.

 

[filinski77]

It’s not logical at all, though.

If Crosby scored more points he would rank higher. Crosby is still playing in this league, are you saying that his ppg this year would be equivalent to like a 60 point season in 2015?

Adjusted stats are really just “point share” stats, it’s not based in any reality

Math clearly isn’t your strong suit. As literally none of the numbers I suggested would indicate that I am equating Crosby’s season this year to 60 points in 2015.

A 35% increase in 60 points is 81 points per 82. Crosby is at a 101 point pace per 82. Not at all the same. And this is even before considering the difference in scoring between a 27 year old (Crosby in 2015), and a 34 year old (Crosby now).

Please just stop responding to me.

 

[Strangle]

Math clearly isn’t your strong suit. As literally none of the numbers I suggested would indicate that I am equating Crosby’s season this year to 60 points in 2015.

A 35% increase in 60 points is 81 points per 82. Crosby is at a 101 point pace per 82. Not at all the same. And this is even before considering the difference in scoring between a 27 year old (Crosby in 2015), and a 34 year old (Crosby now).

Please just stop responding to me.

I didn’t bother doing any math.

So what does Crosby’s current season adjust down to when you compare it to the 2015 season?

 

[Sens With Benefits]

2 with the Leafs and 7-8 with the Coyotes.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Once and he will score 50 the following year and be declared on the decline.

 

[JianYang]

1-2

 

[yukoner88]

 

[vippe]

It's a rare feat. 1 is great, 2 would be phenomenal.

With goalscoring up and currently highest since a long time, it might just happen more than this year (barring a season ending injury) but I'm not gonna throw it out there like it's a sure thing because it isnt.

Matthews has been flaming hot this year, high volume shooting combined with high percentage - is that sustainable? Can he repeat that again? If so he's got a good chance.

 

[Gnome17]

There are 2 major reasons for why scoring is up as I see it;

1. Bad goaltending. Except for maybe 5-6 teams, which teams are comfortable about their goaltending? We are definietly in an era of weaker goaltending, but this could change fairly quickly.

2. The condensed schedule which doesnt allow teams to practice much, which in turn makes it so that teams have worse defensive structure. This should get better next season.

I think Matthews can hit 60 multiple times, but it will get harder and I hold it as unlikely.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

It's important to understand he's actually on pace for 70 goals in 82 games. If this is his peak, he could still "drop" down to 60 goals a season for 2-3 more years assuming he plays all 82 games in those seasons.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Who is ‘they’? The league? How have they opened up the game recently? They took out the two-line pass years ago

I’m starting to see a parallel between society and this era adjusted mentality. In a world where people are more and more believing in society determining individual outcomes, instead of individuals determining their own outcomes, the obsession with adjusted stats starts to make more sense.

When you believe everything happens to you, and goal scoring in the NHL is just something that happens to players, I guess I can at least see where it’s coming from.

It’s still super dumb though.

Well, if teams all decide to run and gun and forget defensive responsibilities then you're going to score more because society (the NHL) decided to go that route and Matthews(among others) is now scoring at a higher rate because of said society.

If teams decide to just try and play as passive as possible and just wait for a mistake and pounce, then Matthews will score less because of a societal decision.

If Matthews does leave Toronto when he's UFA and goes for all the money he can get and disregards his teammates l, then that's on him and he'll more than likely score less because there's no other threats on his team.

Matthews gets hurt and it's similar to Semin, where Semin lost his shot and basically became useless. Matthews offers way more than Semin ever did, but that shot he has isn't as effective, so he's definitely not scoring 60 then.

While, it isn't completely left up to society to determine how well your season will go, it definitely has an impact.

 

[McVespa99]

At least 12.

 

[Strangle]

Well, if teams all decide to run and gun and forget defensive responsibilities then you're going to score more because society (the NHL) decided to go that route and Matthews(among others) is now scoring at a higher rate because of said society.

If teams decide to just try and play as passive as possible and just wait for a mistake and pounce, then Matthews will score less because of a societal decision.

If Matthews does leave Toronto when he's UFA and goes for all the money he can get and disregards his teammates l, then that's on him and he'll more than likely score less because there's no other threats on his team.

Matthews gets hurt and it's similar to Semin, where Semin lost his shot and basically became useless. Matthews offers way more than Semin ever did, but that shot he has isn't as effective, so he's definitely not scoring 60 then.

While, it isn't completely left up to society to determine how well your season will go, it definitely has an impact.

There’s an impact, but the individual has more impact on how much he scores than the league does.

This is why these discussions are always so misguided. This crop of superstars are hitting their stride, surpassing the old guard and the league’s scoring is going up as a result.

The league molds itself to the talent on the ice, it’s not the other way around.

If teams run and gun, it’s because it’s working due to the players ability to execute it. If they clamp down and all play trap hockey, it’s because that’s what’s working due to the talent of the players on the ice.

If this group of stars are scoring more 100+ point seasons and more 50+ or even 60+ goal seasons, it doesn’t need to be normalized against any other baseline. It just means this group of super stars are scoring more than the previous group.

Adjusted stats other major flaw is the idea that the talent base is the same from one era to another. Maybe 2015 just wasn’t a very good year? Maybe the stars just weren’t as good or there wasn’t as many of them.

Maybe Mcdavid is better than Crosby, drai is better than Malkin and that’s why they are scoring so much? And maybe Matthews scores at the same rate as Ovechkin because he’s just as good as Ovechkin.

Crazy idea, I know

 

[Nadal On Clay]

You realize the Art Ross that year was 85 points lol.

Benn had 87 pts.

Crosby was still #1 in points/gp. It’s irrelevant that he dropped from the season before. He was still #1, and an adjustment to put him at #3 this year is extremely logical.

And please don’t create a straw man. At no point did I say Ovi’s 2015 was better than Matthews now. I was simply stating that any reasonable adjustment would make that season a 60 goal season in todays environment.

I agree dominance vs peers is important and extremely valuable. You’re also using it incorrectly. Use % leads instead of raw leads. Since % leads reflect the varying scoring differences. It’s essentially recognizing that a 0.1 goal/gp lead is more dominant in a lower scoring era than it is in a higher scoring era.

You’re just assuming it seems “fair” that post peak Crosby would be 3rd in PPG this season, even though McDavid and Matthews are basically having career years (points wise for McDavid). Does this mean you think 2014 Crosby would win the scoring race and blow by McDavid by like ~20 points this year? Or that 2014 Getzlaf would be threatening McDavid for the art Ross right now? It’s just illogical. It’s another example why your way of adjusting totals is flawed, as it usually is for anyone else trying to do the same from one era to another.

Also, I was quoting your post because you came in a Matthews thread seemingly just to shout: “my guy would’ve scored 65 also this season!”, which at first, just reeks insecurity and which is definitely not a sure thing. I just assumed you compared their 2 seasons and tried to prove they were on the same level, when one is clearly better than the other. I’m sorry if I misinterpreted your comment at first glance, but that’s how I saw it.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

The crazy thing is we should be talking 70 goals

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

The crazy thing is we should be talking 7

Benn had 87 pts.

You’re just assuming it seems “fair” that post peak Crosby would be 3rd in PPG this season, even though McDavid and Matthews are basically having career years (points wise for McDavid). Does this mean you think 2014 Crosby would win the scoring race and blow by McDavid by like ~20 points this year? Or that 2014 Getzlaf would be threatening McDavid for the art Ross right now? It’s just illogical. This is why your way of adjusting totals is flawed, as it usually is for anyone else trying to do the same from one era to another.

Also, I was quoting your post because you came in a Matthews thread seemingly just to shout: “my guy would’ve scored 65 also this season!”, which is definitely not a sure thing. I just assumed you compared their 2 seasons and tried to prove they were on the same level, when one is clearly better than the other. I’m sorry if I misinterpreted your comment at first glance, but that’s how I saw it.

13-14 crosby would very likely be leading the league In scoring right now.

 

[MXD]

Scoring is trending up, so...
Hard to tell.