How many 60 goal seasons will Auston Matthews put up in his career?
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TheStatican
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- Mar 14, 2012
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Lol at the "zeros".
He has 10 games to score 2 goals, he's litterally not been able to do that only twice in his career. Once in his rookie season when he went 13 games without scoring - this was from game 7 to 19 of his career. And then once more in the 18-19 season, scoring once in a 13 game period.
Yup, the last time he scored less than 2 goals in any 10 game stretch was 4 seasons ago.
He has 10 games to score 2 goals, he's litterally not been able to do that only twice in his career. Once in his rookie season when he went 13 games without scoring - this was from game 7 to 19 of his career. And then once more in the 18-19 season, scoring once in a 13 game period.
Yup, the last time he scored less than 2 goals in any 10 game stretch was 4 seasons ago.
ManofSteel55
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Plante
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ManofSteel55
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Its more likely he gets injured. And I'm not saying that because it is likely, but because it is so unlikely for Matthews to play 10 games without 2 goals. The only chance the "0" crowd has of being right, is injury.
Stars align: 3 after this year
What I expect: 1 more after this year and 1-2 more that exceeded it on pace but fell short on games played
What I expect: 1 more after this year and 1-2 more that exceeded it on pace but fell short on games played
One. Two at most but that's unlikely. He'll be 25 next season. Goal scoring usually decreases after age 26. We've seen it with almost all the greats.
filinski77
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- Feb 12, 2017
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1) Matthews is on pace for 71 goals/82 this year. So even if you agreed with my projection, 71 goals is still 9% more than 65.
2) Acknowledging league-wide scoring increases is not "mental gymnastics". You can disagree with fundamentals of the calculation, but disagreeing with the overarching concept is just ignorant on your part.
Here's a fun set of 3 scenarios to try and make a fair comparison: Take Crosby's league leading 1.09 points/gp in 2015. We've got 28 players this year (min. 40GP) that are above 1.09 points/gp.
Option 1: No Adjustment needed -> 27 year old Crosby would hardly be a top-30 point producer in this scoring environment
Option 2: Adjust based on league-wide scoring -> This would of course recognize that you are not considering the distribution between elite player scoring vs. depth scoring. Crosby's 1.24 'adjusted' points/gp = 3-way tied for 13th today (essentially a wash with a 34 year-old version of himself, equivalent to Kadri, Kaprizov, Josi, Rantanen.
| Avg league scoring | |
2022 | 3.12 |
2015 | 2.73 |
| Increase | 14% |
| Crosby's 1.09 points/gp | 1.09 |
| Add 14% | 1.24 |
Option 3: Adjusting based off of relative elite-player scoring -> 1.47 points/gp puts him 3rd place this season, and right around McDavid and Matthews.
2015 | 2022 | % Inc | |
1st | 1.09 | 1.50 | 38% |
2nd | 1.08 | 1.48 | 37% |
5th | 1.05 | 1.40 | 33% |
10th | 0.97 | 1.28 | 32% |
20th | 0.87 | 1.19 | 37% |
30th | 0.83 | 1.05 | 27% |
Looks like from a practical level - 2022 scoring is about 35% higher than 2015. So let's apply that logic:
| Crosby's 1.09 points/gp | 1.09 |
| Add 35% | 1.47 |
Conclusion: Based off of this, how productive or good would a 27 year old Crosby be in today's league? The only mental gymnastics existing here would be saying he's closer to 13th or 30th than he would be to top-3.
saffronleaf
Registered User
Given his numbers in the previous two seasons (last one on pace for 60+; one prior to that on pace for 50+), I don't think this is a one-off. But most goal scorers do have an early peak.
I think Matthews will have three 60+ seasons.
I think Matthews will have three 60+ seasons.
Video Nasty
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- Mar 12, 2017
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The same talk occurred after Ovechkin potted 65. The reality is that he passed 53 goals in a season once more in all the years since and it was the season directly after. Anyone remotely objective knows the league pretty much steadily ticked downward in scoring from season 1 to season 11 of Ovechkin’s career.
Now the thing with Matthews is, the league is higher scoring now and it seems to be ticking upwards. We don’t know if this will continue, level off, or (hopefully not) decline over the next handful of years. As it stands now, this could be a huge advantage for him.
Assuming he gets the 2 goals needed in these final 10 games, It obviously feels like he could do it again next year. From there on out, as the league stands today, that could be it. If we return to 1990-1991 and 1991-1992 levels of scoring (about 6.90ish GPG), he could very well do it an additional 2 times beyond that through about his age 28 season.
I’m not willing to bet yet that Matthews pulls the very unusual Ovechkin reliability of being a 50 goal threat even into his age 36 season, so I don’t feel comfortable predicting 60 goals when most goal scorers peak out by age 26-28.
More surefire things have not happened. This season could very well be his peak or it could be 60 goal season number one of possibly up to four.
Now the thing with Matthews is, the league is higher scoring now and it seems to be ticking upwards. We don’t know if this will continue, level off, or (hopefully not) decline over the next handful of years. As it stands now, this could be a huge advantage for him.
Assuming he gets the 2 goals needed in these final 10 games, It obviously feels like he could do it again next year. From there on out, as the league stands today, that could be it. If we return to 1990-1991 and 1991-1992 levels of scoring (about 6.90ish GPG), he could very well do it an additional 2 times beyond that through about his age 28 season.
I’m not willing to bet yet that Matthews pulls the very unusual Ovechkin reliability of being a 50 goal threat even into his age 36 season, so I don’t feel comfortable predicting 60 goals when most goal scorers peak out by age 26-28.
More surefire things have not happened. This season could very well be his peak or it could be 60 goal season number one of possibly up to four.
One. I think you can throw out the Covid seasons as anomalies as 'on pace for' arguments are not the same as actually achieving it (for one thing it assumes a full healthy season which is rare these days) and the Canadian Division was clearly a one off.
That said, back to back Rockets is a huge achievement and this year he has been unreal as far as scoring goals.
I think he has quite a few more Rocket awards, assuming health.
That said, back to back Rockets is a huge achievement and this year he has been unreal as far as scoring goals.
I think he has quite a few more Rocket awards, assuming health.
Last edited:
How scoring rates change as players age
In part one of a series on how players age, we look at forward scoring.
www.sbnation.com
I'm gonna say 3 to 5. Anyone who thinks this is an anomaly for him hasn't been watching him play.
Auston Matthews is the most versatile goal scorer the league has seen since the 90's and he is only entering the beginning of his athletic prime. He scores like Ovi without the controller disconnected meme and plays defense like Crosby. He can score from either faceoff dots, has an nigh unstoppable toe drag wrist shot, a one timer and is one of the better net front presences in the league. The only thing he really lacks as a weapon is a good backhand and he does't score a lot on the rush due to the fact that he plays a far better two way game than McDavid or Draisaitl.
Facts:
- Over his last 119 (52 games last year, plus 67 this year) games, he has 99 goals. That is a 68 goal pace in 82 games.
- Add in the 70 games from the 19-20 suspended season, he has 146 goals in 188 games. That's a 63 goal pace in 82 games. There's an almost 200 game sample size to show he's capable of doing it.
- Over the last two seasons, he's scoring in 60% of games played. His biggest "slump" in the last two years has been a 4 game goaless drought, one this season and one last season.
- Unlike McDavid, Draisaitl or Kreider this year, Matthews is not and has never been nearly as reliant on the powerplay for his goals. If you took away all his powerplay goals, he'd still have 43 goals which would still make him a Top 5 scorer in the league. McDavid without powerplay goals has 33 goals, Kreider has 21, Draisaitl and Ovi have 29 each. Most of the top goal scorers this year will finish the year with somewhere in the neighbourhood of 35-ish even strength goals, McDavid might hit 40. Those other guys, if their team has a down year on the powerplay, they fall further back of Matthews. Matthews doesn't matter. Toronto's powerplay last year was garbage in the second half of the year and he still put up 41 in 52 games, with 31 of them being at even strength.
Scoring maybe up but here's how Matthews does vs the Top 5 defensive teams in the league by xGA. One of them happens to be Toronto which he can't face so I'll expand it to include the Caps as they're the 6th best team:
vs Boston - 3 goals in 2 games
vs Calagary - 1 goal in 2 games
vs Dallas - 2 goals in 2 games
vs Tampa Bay - 3 goals in 2 games
vs Washington - 0 goals in 1 game
Total: 8 goals in 9 games vs the best defensive teams in the league this year. Good defenses do not stop Matthews. What about goaltending?
Top 5 teams by Save%:
Rangers/Islanders - 4 games, 0 goals.
Hurricanes - 2 games, 3 goals.
Calgary - 2 games, 1 goal.
Colorado - 2 games, 5 goals.
Total: 10 games, 9 goals.
Auston Matthews is the most versatile goal scorer the league has seen since the 90's and he is only entering the beginning of his athletic prime. He scores like Ovi without the controller disconnected meme and plays defense like Crosby. He can score from either faceoff dots, has an nigh unstoppable toe drag wrist shot, a one timer and is one of the better net front presences in the league. The only thing he really lacks as a weapon is a good backhand and he does't score a lot on the rush due to the fact that he plays a far better two way game than McDavid or Draisaitl.
Facts:
- Over his last 119 (52 games last year, plus 67 this year) games, he has 99 goals. That is a 68 goal pace in 82 games.
- Add in the 70 games from the 19-20 suspended season, he has 146 goals in 188 games. That's a 63 goal pace in 82 games. There's an almost 200 game sample size to show he's capable of doing it.
- Over the last two seasons, he's scoring in 60% of games played. His biggest "slump" in the last two years has been a 4 game goaless drought, one this season and one last season.
- Unlike McDavid, Draisaitl or Kreider this year, Matthews is not and has never been nearly as reliant on the powerplay for his goals. If you took away all his powerplay goals, he'd still have 43 goals which would still make him a Top 5 scorer in the league. McDavid without powerplay goals has 33 goals, Kreider has 21, Draisaitl and Ovi have 29 each. Most of the top goal scorers this year will finish the year with somewhere in the neighbourhood of 35-ish even strength goals, McDavid might hit 40. Those other guys, if their team has a down year on the powerplay, they fall further back of Matthews. Matthews doesn't matter. Toronto's powerplay last year was garbage in the second half of the year and he still put up 41 in 52 games, with 31 of them being at even strength.
Scoring maybe up but here's how Matthews does vs the Top 5 defensive teams in the league by xGA. One of them happens to be Toronto which he can't face so I'll expand it to include the Caps as they're the 6th best team:
vs Boston - 3 goals in 2 games
vs Calagary - 1 goal in 2 games
vs Dallas - 2 goals in 2 games
vs Tampa Bay - 3 goals in 2 games
vs Washington - 0 goals in 1 game
Total: 8 goals in 9 games vs the best defensive teams in the league this year. Good defenses do not stop Matthews. What about goaltending?
Top 5 teams by Save%:
Rangers/Islanders - 4 games, 0 goals.
Hurricanes - 2 games, 3 goals.
Calgary - 2 games, 1 goal.
Colorado - 2 games, 5 goals.
Total: 10 games, 9 goals.
saffronleaf
Registered User
but even adjusting for era, Matthews' season is already more impressive than every single Ovechkin season except the 65g season. And he's not too far behind that. The difference in league scoring isn't that considerable when compared to the 80s and early-to-mid 90s.
NHL & WHA Single Season Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com
1. Brett Hull (78), 2. Alex Ovechkin (72), 3. Mario Lemieux (71), 4. Cooney Weiland (70), Phil Esposito (70), 6. Wayne Gretzky (69), 7. Babe Dye (68), Wayne Gretzky (68), Steven Stamkos (68), Auston Matthews (68)
www.hockey-reference.com
| 1. | Brett Hull* | 78 | 1990-91 |
| 2. | Alex Ovechkin | 72 | 2007-08 |
| 3. | Mario Lemieux* | 71 | 1988-89 |
| 4. | Cooney Weiland* | 70 | 1929-30 |
| Phil Esposito* | 70 | 1970-71 | |
| 6. | Wayne Gretzky* | 69 | 1983-84 |
| 7. | Babe Dye* | 68 | 1924-25 |
| Wayne Gretzky* | 68 | 1981-82 | |
| Steven Stamkos | 68 | 2011-12 | |
| 10. | Howie Morenz* | 67 | 1927-28 |
| Dit Clapper* | 67 | 1929-30 | |
| Mario Lemieux* | 67 | 1995-96 | |
| 13. | Howie Morenz* | 65 | 1929-30 |
| Gordie Howe* | 65 | 1952-53 | |
| Phil Esposito* | 65 | 1971-72 | |
| Pavel Bure* | 65 | 2000-01 | |
| Auston Matthews | 65 | 2021-22 |
zappa4ever
Music is the Best!
Depends on Covid, if next season Covid (and Covid protocols) take players off the ice like it did for a large chunk of this season, then prob he can do it again
If he can play 80 games/season maybe he can keep it up, but I think league-wide scoring reverts back down next year
If he can play 80 games/season maybe he can keep it up, but I think league-wide scoring reverts back down next year
Mickey Marner
Registered User
I'll guess two. He's currently capable and in a situation that helps facilitate it happening, but a lot has to go right that's beyond his control.
filinski77
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- Feb 12, 2017
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At no point was I arguing anything to have to do with that. Simply responding to the comment about Ovechkin's number of 60 goal seasons, and substantiating how much higher scoring is right now.
See the 3rd part of my analysis that I made. While I agree with adjusting for era, environments like this are clearly higher scoring for elite players (over and above the overall league scoring). I laid it out pretty clearly, which does indeed indicate how much higher scoring is now.
The90
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- Feb 27, 2017
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Was it hard to dismiss the Canadian division because McDavid didn’t maintain the same pace, but not recognize that Matthews actually increased his pace?
Kennedys
Registered User
He does it this season, and I think he does it one more time, maybe next year or after.
He is absolutely in his goal scoring prime right now, and if he keeps up his goal scoring rate (currently 0.866 for 2021-2022) he has a chance for a 70 goal season, even. I still say he falls short but Ovechkin's highwater mark of 65 in the 21st century is definitely in jeopardy.
He is absolutely in his goal scoring prime right now, and if he keeps up his goal scoring rate (currently 0.866 for 2021-2022) he has a chance for a 70 goal season, even. I still say he falls short but Ovechkin's highwater mark of 65 in the 21st century is definitely in jeopardy.
filinski77
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- Feb 12, 2017
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I just made a huge post on this. Check it out and let me know what you think.
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