How many 60 goal seasons will Auston Matthews put up in his career?

[summer tooth]

Anything over 1 seems like it could be possible, if not probable.

 

[Dominance]

GPG in 2021-22 ----> 6.24
2020-21 ----> 5.88

How this is 20%+ ?

Edited my post for clarity. Last year was a ridiculous outlier with the weird divisions, too.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

but even adjusting for era, Matthews' season is already more impressive than every single Ovechkin season except the 65g season. And he's not too far behind that. The difference in league scoring isn't that considerable when compared to the 80s and early-to-mid 90s.

NHL & WHA Single Season Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

1. Brett Hull (78), 2. Alex Ovechkin (72), 3. Mario Lemieux (71), 4. Cooney Weiland (70), Phil Esposito (70), 6. Wayne Gretzky (69), 7. Babe Dye (68), Wayne Gretzky (68), Steven Stamkos (68), Auston Matthews (68)

www.hockey-reference.com

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]1.[/TD]
[TD]Brett Hull*[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]1990-91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2.[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]72[/TD]
[TD]2007-08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3.[/TD]
[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[TD]1988-89[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4.[/TD]
[TD]Cooney Weiland*[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]1929-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Phil Esposito*[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]1970-71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6.[/TD]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky*[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]1983-84[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7.[/TD]
[TD]Babe Dye*[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]1924-25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Wayne Gretzky*[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]1981-82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Steven Stamkos[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]2011-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10.[/TD]
[TD]Howie Morenz*[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]1927-28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Dit Clapper*[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]1929-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]1995-96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13.[/TD]
[TD]Howie Morenz*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]1929-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Gordie Howe*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]1952-53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Phil Esposito*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]1971-72[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Pavel Bure*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]2000-01[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]2021-22[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

im just curious but how do you figure out era adjusted stats?

 

[Sasha Orlov]

1

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Anything over 1 seems like it could be possible, if not probable.

We should at this point give Matthews the benefit of doubt that he will have atleast one more 60 goal season
the way he has been going past 2 years
last year if it was a full season can almost say he would have made it but possibly not so lets assume. but based off what hes done at this point I think its more than fair to think he can have atleast two 60 goal seasons
crazy thing is we can be like 10 games into the season and think he wont make it to even 50 then boom were all wrong

 

[chauron]

Exactly. Wait till he gets to 60 before making this thread.

Its like me asking "how many 100 pt seasons will Gaudreau have" when Gaudreau is at 99 rn. Yes, he'll most likely make it (even more likely than Matthews hitting 60), but still...

The world works and is built in a weird way if one post in HFBoards is able to change the whole universe.

 

[Shad]

2-3

 

[super6646]

The world works and is built in a weird way if one post in HFBoards is able to change the whole universe.

Absolutely no one is saying that. But you end up looking pretty silly if something does end up happening to Matthews in the end.

 

[Nicko999]

1. Maybe 2.

Not sure how long he’ll be the best goal-scorer in the league. These guys tend to peak really young.

This... Ovechkin and Stamkos both had their 60 goals seasons at 22.

I think maybe next year he does it (I am gonna assume he hits 60 this year as well lol) and then he will level off closer to 50.

 

[Video Nasty]

but even adjusting for era, Matthews' season is already more impressive than every single Ovechkin season except the 65g season. And he's not too far behind that. The difference in league scoring isn't that considerable when compared to the 80s and early-to-mid 90s.

NHL & WHA Single Season Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

1. Brett Hull (78), 2. Alex Ovechkin (72), 3. Mario Lemieux (71), 4. Cooney Weiland (70), Phil Esposito (70), 6. Wayne Gretzky (69), 7. Babe Dye (68), Wayne Gretzky (68), Steven Stamkos (68), Auston Matthews (68)

www.hockey-reference.com

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]1.[/TD]
[TD]Brett Hull*[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]1990-91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2.[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]72[/TD]
[TD]2007-08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3.[/TD]
[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[TD]1988-89[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4.[/TD]
[TD]Cooney Weiland*[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]1929-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Phil Esposito*[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]1970-71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6.[/TD]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky*[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]1983-84[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7.[/TD]
[TD]Babe Dye*[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]1924-25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Wayne Gretzky*[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]1981-82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Steven Stamkos[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]2011-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10.[/TD]
[TD]Howie Morenz*[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]1927-28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Dit Clapper*[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]1929-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]1995-96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13.[/TD]
[TD]Howie Morenz*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]1929-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Gordie Howe*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]1952-53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Phil Esposito*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]1971-72[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Pavel Bure*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]2000-01[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]2021-22[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Adjusting for era is so problematic and it seems like the formula was mainly invented to try and normalize Gretzky’s dominance.

An example of why adjustments are baloney.

No one ever has an answer for why at age 30 in 1995-1996, Mario scored 69 goals and 161 points in 70 games in a league where scoring was 6.28 GPG…while at age 22 in 1987-1988 in a league where scoring was much higher at 7.42 GPG, he scored 70 goals and 168 points in 77 games.

Adjustments would have you believe that if looked at the seasons separately, he should have had much higher totals in 1987-1988 than he did in reality.

Some do the same thing today. Someone has a great season and they project what they would have gotten in a higher scoring league. It doesn’t make much sense and while interesting and useful to a degree, it’s not the end all be all that fans seem to think it is.

 

[Rebels57]

He won't do it again after this season but i'm sure he'll come close.

 

[vancityluongo]

Will guess 3. Matthews is likely at his offensive peak, but I'll guess that if league scoring stays high as it has over the past couple years, he gets 2 more 60 goal seasons in the next 3 years.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

1) Matthews is on pace for 71 goals/82 this year. So even if you agreed with my projection, 71 goals is still 9% more than 65.

2) Acknowledging league-wide scoring increases is not "mental gymnastics". You can disagree with fundamentals of the calculation, but disagreeing with the overarching concept is just ignorant on your part.

Here's a fun set of 3 scenarios to try and make a fair comparison: Take Crosby's league leading 1.09 points/gp in 2015. We've got 28 players this year (min. 40GP) that are above 1.09 points/gp.

Option 1: No Adjustment needed -> 27 year old Crosby would hardly be a top-30 point producer in this scoring environment

Option 2: Adjust based on league-wide scoring -> This would of course recognize that you are not considering the distribution between elite player scoring vs. depth scoring. Crosby's 1.24 'adjusted' points/gp = 3-way tied for 13th today (essentially a wash with a 34 year-old version of himself, equivalent to Kadri, Kaprizov, Josi, Rantanen.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Avg league scoring[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2022​

[/TD]

[TD]

3.12​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2015​

[/TD]

[TD]

2.73​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Increase[/TD]

[TD]

14%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Crosby's 1.09 points/gp[/TD]

[TD]

1.09​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Add 14%[/TD]
[TD]1.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Option 3: Adjusting based off of relative elite-player scoring -> 1.47 points/gp puts him 3rd place this season, and right around McDavid and Matthews.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]

2015​

[/TD]

[TD]

2022​

[/TD]

[TD]% Inc[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1st​

[/TD]

[TD]1.09[/TD]
[TD]1.50[/TD]

[TD]

38%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2nd​

[/TD]

[TD]1.08[/TD]
[TD]1.48[/TD]

[TD]

37%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5th​

[/TD]

[TD]1.05[/TD]
[TD]1.40[/TD]

[TD]

33%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10th​

[/TD]

[TD]0.97[/TD]
[TD]1.28[/TD]

[TD]

32%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

20th​

[/TD]

[TD]0.87[/TD]
[TD]1.19[/TD]

[TD]

37%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

30th​

[/TD]

[TD]0.83[/TD]
[TD]1.05[/TD]

[TD]

27%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Looks like from a practical level - 2022 scoring is about 35% higher than 2015. So let's apply that logic:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Crosby's 1.09 points/gp[/TD]

[TD]

1.09​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Add 35%[/TD]
[TD]1.47[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Conclusion: Based off of this, how productive or good would a 27 year old Crosby be in today's league? The only mental gymnastics existing here would be saying he's closer to 13th or 30th than he would be to top-3.

2014-2015 is one of Crosby’s worst full regular season of his career. His PPG from the year prior dropped from 1,3 to 1,09. He did not separate himself from the pack at all (0,01 over 2nd, 0,04 over 5th and 0,12 over 10th). Adjusting his season to McDavid and Matthews’ paces just isn’t right. There are no perfect adjusting metrics to compare players from different eras, which is why the only way to compare them is by looking at their dominance vs their peers.

Ovechkin 2015
G/GP Lead over

#2: 0,122
#3: 0,130
#5: 0,161
#10: 0,205
#20: 0,262

Matthews 2022
G/GP Lead over

#2: 0,172
#3: 0,195
#5: 0,223
#10: 0,283
#20: 0,338

Thats the most unbiased way of viewing things. I agree with you that the top scorers benefit a little bit more than the other players when playing in a high scoring era, but adjusting their scoring that way while ignoring everything else is just a huge reach. OV would’ve been more likely flirting with 60 instead of being a sure bet for 65. Still a level below the season Matthews is having right now.

 

[pcruz]

Not that many. This season is not normal.

Everyone said the same thing last year.
He didn't slow down at all playing the rest of the league compared to just the shifty Canadian teams.

 

[34]

Damn, a lot of salt in this thread.

The real question is, how may 70 goal seasons will Matthews have.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

There's a pretty good chance this is Matthews' single-season peak, so he might not reach this pace again.

But he'll be consistently right around 50 goals over 82 games for his prime. He could maybe squeak out another 60 goal season or two depending on what happens to league scoring, can't really say for sure.

 

[daver]

The same amount of times McDavid hits 130 points.

 

[TheStatican]

but even adjusting for era, Matthews' season is already more impressive than every single Ovechkin season except the 65g season. And he's not too far behind that. The difference in league scoring isn't that considerable when compared to the 80s and early-to-mid 90s.

NHL & WHA Single Season Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

1. Brett Hull (78), 2. Alex Ovechkin (72), 3. Mario Lemieux (71), 4. Cooney Weiland (70), Phil Esposito (70), 6. Wayne Gretzky (69), 7. Babe Dye (68), Wayne Gretzky (68), Steven Stamkos (68), Auston Matthews (68)

www.hockey-reference.com

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]1.[/TD]
[TD]Brett Hull*[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]1990-91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2.[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]72[/TD]
[TD]2007-08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3.[/TD]
[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[TD]1988-89[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4.[/TD]
[TD]Cooney Weiland*[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]1929-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Phil Esposito*[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]1970-71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6.[/TD]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky*[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]1983-84[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7.[/TD]
[TD]Babe Dye*[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]1924-25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Wayne Gretzky*[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]1981-82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Steven Stamkos[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]2011-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10.[/TD]
[TD]Howie Morenz*[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]1927-28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Dit Clapper*[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]1929-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]1995-96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13.[/TD]
[TD]Howie Morenz*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]1929-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Gordie Howe*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]1952-53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Phil Esposito*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]1971-72[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Pavel Bure*[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]2000-01[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD]2021-22[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Something else that's interesting is that on a per game basis his era-adjusted goal scoring rate is the second highest in modern NHL history at 0.970 just a little behind Brett Hull's 1.000 in 90-91(minimum 60 games played)

*edit AM's 65 goals already represents his projection for the season and so it would actually rank tied for the 14th highest single season gpg

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Brett Hull*[/TD]
[TD]78 / 78 games[/TD]
[TD]1.000 1990-91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]72 / 82 games[/TD]
[TD]0.878 2007-08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]71 / 76 games[/TD]
[TD]0.934 1988-89[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Phil Esposito*[/TD]
[TD]70 / 78 games[/TD]
[TD]0.897 1970-71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky*[/TD]
[TD]69 / 74 games[/TD]
[TD]0.932 1983-84[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky*[/TD]
[TD]68 / 80 games[/TD]
[TD]0.850 1981-82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]Steven Stamkos[/TD]
[TD]68 / 82 games[/TD]
[TD]0.829 2011-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]67 / 70 games[/TD]
[TD]0.957 1995-96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Gordie Howe*[/TD]
[TD]65 / 70 games[/TD]
[TD]0.929 1952-53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Phil Esposito*[/TD]
[TD]65 / 76 games[/TD]
[TD]0.855 1971-72[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]Pavel Bure*[/TD]
[TD]65 / 82 games[/TD]
[TD]0.793 2000-01[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]

[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]65 / 76 games[/TD]
[TD]0.855 2021-22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Pavel Bure*[/TD]
[TD]64 / 74 games[/TD]
[TD]0.865 1999-00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]Brett Hull*[/TD]
[TD]63 / 73 games[/TD]
[TD]0.863 1991-92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]Alexander Mogilny[/TD]
[TD]62 / 77 games[/TD]
[TD]0.805 1992-93[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]Teemu Selanne[/TD]
[TD]60 / 73 games[/TD]
[TD]0.822 1997-98[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Bobby Hull*[/TD]
[TD]58 / 65 games[/TD]
[TD]0.892 1965-66[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]Bobby Hull*[/TD]
[TD]57 / 66 games[/TD]
[TD]0.864 1966-67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]56 / 60 games[/TD]
[TD]0.933 1992-93[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Strangle]

I'll say this is is only one and he settles into 50 goal range. His pace last year was great but playing in the Canadian division where McDavid went nuts. Also he has been healthy the last few years but before that he didn't have a history of 80 game seasons.

Matthews is scoring at exactly the same rate (maybe even slightly higher now, actually?) this year in the most competitive division in the NHL as he did in the North Division last year.

The “Canadian Division” narrative is debunked. McDavid isn’t having a 2.0 ppg season, but Matthews is scoring goals like he did.

This is Matthews 3rd 50 goal equivalent season (accounting for season length), and 2nd 60 goal equivalent season.

 

[Neil Racki]

If scoring continues to rise … several.

This year almost needs an asterix

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Depends on how long this trend of high goal scoring continues or if the NHL returns back towards defensive systemic hockey.

 

[ToDavid]

Exactly. Wait till he gets to 60 before making this thread.

Its like me asking "how many 100 pt seasons will Gaudreau have" when Gaudreau is at 99 rn. Yes, he'll most likely make it (even more likely than Matthews hitting 60), but still...

Not everyone is superstitious.

Gaudreau is going to hit 100. Matthews is going to hit 60.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

There's a pretty good chance this is Matthews' single-season peak, so he might not reach this pace again.

But he'll be consistently right around 50 goals over 82 games for his prime. He could maybe squeak out another 60 goal season or two depending on what happens to league scoring, can't really say for sure.

While I agree that this is likely his peak, I am not sure he needs to hit this pace again to hit 60 - he really just needs to stay healthy.

Here are his 82 game paces. Unfortunately, COVID & injuries have set back his totals. Also hard to really say he's peaked, but age and trajectory make me believe he has. If he plays 2 more years with Marner and stays healthy, 60 is definitely in the wheelhouse.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Age[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Lge[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]82 Pace[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]016-17[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]NHL[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2017-18[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]NHL[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2018-19[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]NHL[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019-20[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]NHL[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020-21[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]NHL[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021-22[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]NHL[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Strangle]

1) Matthews is on pace for 71 goals/82 this year. So even if you agreed with my projection, 71 goals is still 9% more than 65.

2) Acknowledging league-wide scoring increases is not "mental gymnastics". You can disagree with fundamentals of the calculation, but disagreeing with the overarching concept is just ignorant on your part.

Here's a fun set of 3 scenarios to try and make a fair comparison: Take Crosby's league leading 1.09 points/gp in 2015. We've got 28 players this year (min. 40GP) that are above 1.09 points/gp.

Option 1: No Adjustment needed -> 27 year old Crosby would hardly be a top-30 point producer in this scoring environment

Option 2: Adjust based on league-wide scoring -> This would of course recognize that you are not considering the distribution between elite player scoring vs. depth scoring. Crosby's 1.24 'adjusted' points/gp = 3-way tied for 13th today (essentially a wash with a 34 year-old version of himself, equivalent to Kadri, Kaprizov, Josi, Rantanen.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Avg league scoring[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2022​

[/TD]

[TD]

3.12​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2015​

[/TD]

[TD]

2.73​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Increase[/TD]

[TD]

14%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Crosby's 1.09 points/gp[/TD]

[TD]

1.09​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Add 14%[/TD]
[TD]1.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Option 3: Adjusting based off of relative elite-player scoring -> 1.47 points/gp puts him 3rd place this season, and right around McDavid and Matthews.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]

2015​

[/TD]

[TD]

2022​

[/TD]

[TD]% Inc[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1st​

[/TD]

[TD]1.09[/TD]
[TD]1.50[/TD]

[TD]

38%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2nd​

[/TD]

[TD]1.08[/TD]
[TD]1.48[/TD]

[TD]

37%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5th​

[/TD]

[TD]1.05[/TD]
[TD]1.40[/TD]

[TD]

33%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10th​

[/TD]

[TD]0.97[/TD]
[TD]1.28[/TD]

[TD]

32%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

20th​

[/TD]

[TD]0.87[/TD]
[TD]1.19[/TD]

[TD]

37%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

30th​

[/TD]

[TD]0.83[/TD]
[TD]1.05[/TD]

[TD]

27%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Looks like from a practical level - 2022 scoring is about 35% higher than 2015. So let's apply that logic:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Crosby's 1.09 points/gp[/TD]

[TD]

1.09​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Add 35%[/TD]
[TD]1.47[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Conclusion: Based off of this, how productive or good would a 27 year old Crosby be in today's league? The only mental gymnastics existing here would be saying he's closer to 13th or 30th than he would be to top-3.

When you add all the superstars from different peaks together, someone has to be 13th. Maybe Crosby wasn’t as good, if these players are scoring more points than he managed.

Taking league average scoring and making goals/points count for more or less than another player just isn’t required. We have actual numbers in order to count, and in the NHL an assist is worth 1 point and a goal is worth 1 point. They aren’t worth 1.14, or 0.63 of a point. They are worth 1 whole point.

If league scoring goes up, it’s because the players are scoring more. Good for them, this is what everyone is trying to do.

If league scoring goes down, it’s also reflective of the players on the ice simply not scoring as much. There are a lot of reasons for this, but none of it is external. It’s all done by the players on the ice.

 

[SkinsFan09]

Oh, please.

2015 Ovechkin is not on current Matthews’ level goalscoring wise. No mental gymnastics is going to change that. As of now, 2008 Ovechkin is the only version you could argue as being ahead of current Matthews as a goalscorer.

You realize the Art Ross that year was 85 points lol.