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How many 60 goal seasons will Auston Matthews put up in his career?

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Vegito said:
13-14 crosby would very likely be leading the league In scoring right now.
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I don’t disagree about that. It’s just pretty improbable that he’d lap current McDavid like the other poster’s adjusted metrics are suggesting.
 
Strangle said:
There’s an impact, but the individual has more impact on how much he scores than the league does.

This is why these discussions are always so misguided. This crop of superstars are hitting their stride, surpassing the old guard and the league’s scoring is going up as a result.

The league molds itself to the talent on the ice, it’s not the other way around.

If teams run and gun, it’s because it’s working due to the players ability to execute it. If they clamp down and all play trap hockey, it’s because that’s what’s working due to the talent of the players on the ice.

If this group of stars are scoring more 100+ point seasons and more 50+ or even 60+ goal seasons, it doesn’t need to be normalized against any other baseline. It just means this group of super stars are scoring more than the previous group.

Adjusted stats other major flaw is the idea that the talent base is the same from one era to another. Maybe 2015 just wasn’t a very good year? Maybe the stars just weren’t as good or there wasn’t as many of them.

Maybe Mcdavid is better than Crosby, drai is better than Malkin and that’s why they are scoring so much? And maybe Matthews scores at the same rate as Ovechkin because he’s just as good as Ovechkin.

Crazy idea, I know
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And this has nothing to do with what we've seen the past few years?

www.nhl.com

NHL, NHLPA add new chest, arm pad rules for goalies | NHL.com

Guidelines aim to eliminate equipment advantages, increase scoring
www.nhl.com www.nhl.com
 
Strangle said:
There’s an impact, but the individual has more impact on how much he scores than the league does.

This is why these discussions are always so misguided. This crop of superstars are hitting their stride, surpassing the old guard and the league’s scoring is going up as a result.

The league molds itself to the talent on the ice, it’s not the other way around.

If teams run and gun, it’s because it’s working due to the players ability to execute it. If they clamp down and all play trap hockey, it’s because that’s what’s working due to the talent of the players on the ice.

If this group of stars are scoring more 100+ point seasons and more 50+ or even 60+ goal seasons, it doesn’t need to be normalized against any other baseline. It just means this group of super stars are scoring more than the previous group.

Adjusted stats other major flaw is the idea that the talent base is the same from one era to another. Maybe 2015 just wasn’t a very good year? Maybe the stars just weren’t as good or there wasn’t as many of them.

Maybe Mcdavid is better than Crosby, drai is better than Malkin and that’s why they are scoring so much? And maybe Matthews scores at the same rate as Ovechkin because he’s just as good as Ovechkin.

Crazy idea, I know
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It’s a crazy idea because you’re just making shit up.

Are 36 year old Ovechkin and 34 year old Crosby actually just better hockey players now than they were in their 20’s? And that’s the reason that they’re producing same/better numbers than multiple of their younger seasons? This is all before even considering the anticipated DROP in production that should happen.

I just see no logical argument how the best hockey player from 7 years ago would only be the 28th most productive player this year.

It’s illogical and ignores the fact that defensive systems are more loose now, that goalie equipment is smaller, and tons of other smaller impacts that lead to other increases for elite players.
 
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Nadal On Clay said:
I don’t disagree about that. It’s just pretty improbable that he’d lap current McDavid like the other poster’s adjusted metrics are suggesting.
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A) I’m not acting like it’s perfect, just trying to illustrate some sound, data-driven logic. It’s significantly more reasonable than comparing straight raw production, or even adjustments based only on league wide scoring (as I showed you)

B) My example suggested Crosby’s year would be 3rd this year. Any other years where Crosby produced higher numbers, would also need to have the numbers ran for, since there are still fluctuations every couple years (as the data shows).

C) I’ll also be a huge proponent that Crosby’s per game stats from his 3 year peak are inflated because he never played more than 50% of a season. So it’s hard to conclude how he’d do in an 82gp setting. Either way, Crosby is one of the GOATS, so it wouldn’t at all be hard to imagine him lapping Matthews in point production.
 
I'd say 2. High end goal scorers peak between the age of 22-25. To score 60 these days, you need to be at your absolute peak and not get injured at all.

Matthews is getting one this year, maybe the stars align one more time.
 
If not for COVID he had a legit shot at 3-4 maybe 5 depending how scoring levels are going forward and if he really is entering a sustained 2-3 season peak or starts to decline next season like Ovechkin. The fact that we can't rule out 70 now is pretty amazing.
 
I think he maybe hits 60 points twice. Hovers in the 55 range throughout other seasons.
 
Strangle said:
Matthews is scoring at exactly the same rate (maybe even slightly higher now, actually?) this year in the most competitive division in the NHL as he did in the North Division last year.

The “Canadian Division” narrative is debunked. McDavid isn’t having a 2.0 ppg season, but Matthews is scoring goals like he did.

This is Matthews 3rd 50 goal equivalent season (accounting for season length), and 2nd 60 goal equivalent season.
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This season is legit, the claim would be his 2021 season was possibly inflated.
 
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MVP of West Hollywd said:
This season is legit, the claim would be his 2021 season was possibly inflated.
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Agreed. I think the Covid shortened seasons in general are tough to use. It assumes that the shortened season pace stays the same and that there are no injuries. Last year with the Canadian division and no inter divisional play is even harder to extrapolate.
This season without question is legit.
 
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Forget about 60 goal seasons. I want to know how many 70 goal seasons Matthews will have? I bet he has at least a couple.
 
I will say one 60 goal season and four seasons with 50+ goals. I think he has the potential to reach 70 goals but there are many factors.
 
Scoring has become easier particularly at even strength so it could be possibly to get a few especially if his teams powerplay stays great for a stretch of seasons. Peak and longevity are different tho and it isn’t a sure thing he’ll have the longevity of Ovi; goal scorers tend to peak younger but then if anyone could score like Ovi of the young crop it’s Matthews
 
MVP of West Hollywd said:
I'll say this is is only one and he settles into 50 goal range. His pace last year was great but playing in the Canadian division where McDavid went nuts. Also he has been healthy the last few years but before that he didn't have a history of 80 game seasons.
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lol

He was pacing for 55 two years back and 60 last year in the "weak Canadian division" and is pacing for 68 goals over 82 this year so how is he going to settle in the 50 goal range if he's outdoing his 60 goal pace from last year's "weak division"? Nothing about what he's doing is unsustainable at all.
 
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