How many 60 goal seasons will Auston Matthews put up in his career?

[pi314]

Holy jinx thread batman!

Matthews has 'minor injury,' day to day for Maple Leafs

 

[ScaredStreit]

1. If Ovechkin played in the same era as Gretzky and Lemieux up through 1995-96 he'd have multiple 60-goal seasons and that goes for Stamkos too. If Gretzky played from 2005 onward he would not have nearly as many goals but he'd still have huge point totals and a collection of Art Ross trophies.

2. Matthews should score 60 again, scoring is as high as it's been since the mid-90s and he plays with another 100-point player on his line which opens up lots of space (and to be clear, Marner also benefits greatly playing with Auston) and obviously is a major help in production. [And he is really really good at scoring goals to begin with]

1. Ovechkin wouldn't exist in a vacuum. He wouldn't benefit from today's equipment, training, fitness, and most importantly would take a much bigger physical beating compared to what he endures today. He's managed to stay pretty healthy throughout his career and his longevity is great. Both of those would be much more difficult to accomplish. He'd obviously still be amongst the best (Gretzky/Bossy then later Lemieux) in terms of goals but it's hard to pencil anyone in for multiple 60+ seasons during an era they didn't play-we really don't know.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Dennis Maruk?
Now there’s a name I didn’t expect to see on the list.

He had an interesting life story. Many of his most interesting things happened after he retired.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

Go slow, I’m stupid. And math isn’t my strong suit.

Crosby has 77 points this year, that is 35% higher than it should be if this was the 2015 season. 35% less would be …. 49 points in 2015 so far.

Extrapolating that over 82 games out 2022 Crosby at 66 points in 2015.

That makes him the 22nd most productive scorer in 2015.

Your math is a bit off.

Saying X is 35% higher than Y, doesn't mean that you can subtract 35% from X to find Y.

Saying X is 35% higher than Y is about the same as saying Y is 26% lower than X.

If 77p is 35% higher than it should be, the resulting number is 57p. You can check this math is correct because 57p * 135% = 77p.

57p in 64 games would be pace for 73p in 82 games, which would be 14th in 2015.

 

[The Panther]

Holy jinx thread batman!

Matthews has 'minor injury,' day to day for Maple Leafs

I know this isn't what NHL.com's article here intended, but I thought this was funny:

It's the sixth game Matthews has missed this season; Toronto is 5-1-0 without him.

"It's hard to replace an Auston, I don't know if you can," Maple Leafs goalie Jack Campbell said.

 

[SeanConn]

Entirely depends on the league scoring average... it seems goal scoring is up among the top skilled players, and if it continues to go up a bit more, I don't see why he might not achieve 2 or 3 more.

Had league scoring averages stayed the same or went up a little more after the post 2004 lockout bump, Ovechkin likely would have had at least three 60 goal seasons... league scoring trended down after his 65 goal season tho, and it made his 50 goal seasons that much more meaningful.


If Matthew's wants any chance at being considered a better goal scorer than Ovi, he had better plan on having multiple more 60 goal seasons, or plan to beat Ovi and Gretzky's totals himself.

For the sake of the league, I hope scoring continues to go up, and Matthew's gets multiple more 60+ goal seasons. Hope someone can break 70 again, and Matthew's seems to be the best bet to do that at the moment.

 

[Jumptheshark]

6 years in he has none. This is the first time he topped 50 goals and 100 pts

 

[bobholly39]

Alex Ovechkin sweeps the Lindsay 3 years in a row, 2 harts, 65 goal season, pace of ~56+ twice after that....I bet if people made a thread back then asking "how many more 55 goal seasons will Ovechkin have" people would have guessed a lot. Instead he scored 32, 38 and 32 (lockout year) for the next 3 years.

Completely unexpected huge dip in goal-scoring. And although he obviously bounced back big time with 7 more rockets - he never again touched 55 goals in a season.

What Matthews is doing is great - but no guarantee he scores again at this level even next year, let alone multiple times. And obviously - as of this posting he hasn't even reached 60 goals this year yet

 

[slikki]

Answer is 1.
He also will have one 70 goal season and shit load of 50 goals seasons.

 

[Montreal Shadow]

Answer is 1.
He also will have one 70 goal season and shit load of 50 goals seasons.

Then the answer would be two.

 

[Advanced stats]

6 years in he has none. This is the first time he topped 50 goals and 100 pts

1 rookie year, 2 injured years and 2 covid years. Yep that'll do it

 

[villacco]

Still 0

 

[Oilslick941611]

Not that many. This season is not normal.

There are many players with 100 points or on pace for 100 points that I expect to never hit 100 points again, This year is an anomaly goal scoring wise.Im not saying I expect Matthews to not hit 100 again, but I doubt he hits 60 again. SO im going to say 1, but he hasn't hit it yet.

Scoring is crazy high this year.

 

[J bo Jeans]

Scoring is up like 20+% this year from 2015. If this is the new reality, then I am certain he can hit it again playing with Marner and getting close to a full season. If not…

It’s fun being excited about everyone having career seasons and breaking notable plateaus, and certainly better than the opposite, but we need a grain of salt with everything when we’re looking at at least 10 100+ point scorers, ~7 50+ goal scorers, and like 50+ P/GP players.

Its up about 14% but yeah

 

[crosby87]

possibly 0

 

[authentic]

There are many players with 100 points or on pace for 100 points that I expect to never hit 100 points again, This year is an anomaly goal scoring wise.Im not saying I expect Matthews to not hit 100 again, but I doubt he hits 60 again. SO im going to say 1, but he hasn't hit it yet.

Scoring is crazy high this year.

I'd be willing to bet he hits 60 in every season he plays north of 75+ games for the next 3 seasons, and his pace for the past 3 seasons combined is already above 60 goals he just hasn't hit it due to COVID shortened seasons. He is quite literally a 60+ goal scoring player who is just entering his peak right now.

 

[Dominance]

Its up about 14% but yeah

For some reason I thought average scoring per team in 2015 was approaching 2.5 G/GP. It’s up 15.5% to be exact. If we factor this in, suddenly a lot of great seasons seem just good and a lot of good season seem just okay.

Matthews would be at 50 goals - still great given the games he missed, of course.

Huberdeau would be at 94 points and Gaudreau at 91 points - not quite the easy 100-point scorers they were.

Ovi would be at 74 points - not really the career revitalization that was hypothesized.

Josi would be at 76 points and Makar at 71 - not quite the same dominance from the blue line.

Top offensive rookie Zegras would not have hit 50 points yet - relatively disappointing for a 21 year old 1C.

Kreider, Tkachuk, Thomas, Robertson, Kyrou - all of the breakout players would not seem quite as bright.

 

[Dache]

I'd be willing to bet he hits 60 in every season he plays north of 75+ games for the next 3 seasons, and his pace for the past 3 seasons combined is already above 60 goals he just hasn't hit it due to COVID shortened seasons. He is quite literally a 60+ goal scoring player who is just entering his peak right now.

That’s the issue with scoring 60 though. I don’t think many people are questioning if he has the ability. They’re saying that everything needs to right which is very difficult

 

[Prairie Habs]

1 rookie year, 2 injured years and 2 covid years. Yep that'll do it

He played all 82 games and scored 40 in his rookie year, for the others his 82 game paces were:

17/18: 34G in 62GP = 45G
18/19: 37G in 68GP = 45G
19/20: 47G in 70GP = 55G
20/21: 41G in 52GP = 65G

So, both injury years he really didn't have a chance at 60 and he wasn't on pace for it the first covid year either. He was on pace for it last year but, fun fact, if you include his playoff games he had 42G in 59GP and his pace drops below 60 again (58 goal pace), so it wasn't guaranteed either. I know, Leafs fans don't place value on playoff games. But still, let's not act like Matthews has been robbed by the universe or anything.

 

[Machinehead]

Probably one.

I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if he does it more times but this isn't normal. I don't care how good you are.

 

[AD1066]

Probably one.

I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if he does it more times but this isn't normal. I don't care how good you are.

I mistook your signature as evidence added to support your post lol. It's an unusual season to say the least. Matt Duchene is about to become a 40 goal scorer, which would've been a big reach even when he was a better player than he is today.

 

[daver]

Just to be a pest, I am going with zero.

So far, so good.

 

[Machinehead]

I mistook your signature as evidence added to support your post lol. It's an unusual season to say the least. Matt Duchene is about to become a 40 goal scorer, which would've been a big reach even when he was a better player than he is today.

You wouldn't be wrong!

I'm happy for Chris and you can't take it away from him, but I don't think he's gonna score 40 again.

 

[Demandedace]

Alex Ovechkin sweeps the Lindsay 3 years in a row, 2 harts, 65 goal season, pace of ~56+ twice after that....I bet if people made a thread back then asking "how many more 55 goal seasons will Ovechkin have" people would have guessed a lot. Instead he scored 32, 38 and 32 (lockout year) for the next 3 years.

Completely unexpected huge dip in goal-scoring. And although he obviously bounced back big time with 7 more rockets - he never again touched 55 goals in a season.

What Matthews is doing is great - but no guarantee he scores again at this level even next year, let alone multiple times. And obviously - as of this posting he hasn't even reached 60 goals this year yet

To be fair, Ovi's huge dip in scoring was due in large part to the massive shift in focus by the Caps after the playoffs disaster. I do agree though that current production is no indicator of future success though, will be very interesting to see how Matthews performs the next couple of seasons considering he has been pretty damn consistent to this point.

 

[Two4Fighting]

How many threads can you post about Mathews in 60 days?