barkovcanfinnish
Stanley Cup Champs 2024
He’ll get 2 maybe, this year and maybe next year. When his next contract comes up I don’t think he’ll hit 60 again
How many 60 goal seasons will Auston Matthews put up in his career?
- Thread starter thestranger102
- Start date
-
Work is still on-going to rebuild the site styling and features. Please report any issues you may experience so we can look into it. Click Here for Updates
FinPanda
Barkov Stanley cup champ!
Except for his rookie season where he played 100% and the last three seasons where's he's played 100%, 91% and 93% currently.
Chaos2k7
2024 Stanley Cup Champions! 🏆
The real question is how many 60+ goal seasons he needs before Wayne gives up his GOAT status to AM.
I'm thinking this season will be considered enough to start the conversation.
If not now when is the appropriate time, lmao?
How desperate for validation must Leafs fans be?
I'm thinking this season will be considered enough to start the conversation.
If not now when is the appropriate time, lmao?
How desperate for validation must Leafs fans be?
Bear of Bad News
"The Worst Guy on the Site" - user feedback
- Sep 27, 2005
- 14,703
- 30,360
(I have not audited your calculations so I will take them as given.)
No one's ever bothered to say to you "well, Mario had a better year at age 30 than at age 22"? (That's a reasonable answer.)
Or do you dismiss that answer, and therefore it "doesn't count"?
Players do not universally follow the overall aging curve, players are used in different proportions of situations depending on a variety of scenarios that change from year to year, players have different quality of teammates from one year to the next, oh, and "shit happens". Mario had an amazing year at age 30.
Last edited:
North Cole
♧ Lem
- Jan 22, 2017
- 11,859
- 13,545
No one ever has an answer, really? If you're saying that looking at the different situations Lemieux was in below, refutes adjusting, why do I get to add 2 minutes of ice time to Matthews and pretend that his situation won't change? It's not going to change as much as this Lemieux example, but he still won't be glued to Marner or playing PP1 with all the boys for 2 minutes straight.
- In 1987 he had a next closest teammate of Dan Quinn with 79 points and 46 games of prime Paul Coffey. Then a bunch of refuse.
- In 1995 he had a next closest teammate of Jaromir Jagr with with 149 points and Ron Francis with 100+. Then also Nedved, Zubov, Naslund, etc. Jagr shows up 60 times in his scoring logs and Francis shows up 55. There's going to be some overlap but it should be fairly obvious that they helped quite a bit.
The Blueprint
Registered User
- Dec 4, 2018
- 595
- 711
What a lame post. How desperate are you for likes from other fan bases ahahah.
Guys having an insane year. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not. And yea he's a Leaf and one of the best in the game. Deal with it brother.
filinski77
Registered User
- Feb 12, 2017
- 2,730
- 4,560
Using the same methodology (recognizing that today's top scorers are scoring ~35% more than 2015), 75 points x 1.35 = 101 points (Crosby's 82GP pace this season).
75 points per 82 = 0.91 points/gp. 0.91 points/gp would be 16th place in points/gp in 2015. Considering Crosby would be 34 years old in this comparison, that also passes the eye test. Crosby is currently 14th place in points/gp this year, so this whole comparison is in the relative ballpark of it making a ton of sense.
This essentially says "34 year old Crosby would be the ~15th most productive player in 2015 if he was 34 years old at the time". Nothing wrong with that assumption, since he's also the ~15th most productive point producer in 2022 at 34 years old.
Some said before this season he never had 50+ season
Would be funny if he actually never gets one.... I mean he would have few 60+ seasons and then some 40+ seasons, but never finish in "fifties"
Would be funny if he actually never gets one.... I mean he would have few 60+ seasons and then some 40+ seasons, but never finish in "fifties"
Strangle
Leafs Smol PP
- May 4, 2009
- 9,804
- 7,073
There are countless ‘reasons’ that players score more or less from year to year. You seldom see a player’s production look incredibly consistent on a graph.
And it’s not ignoring any of these reasons, all of this doesn’t matter if the player can’t put the puck in the net, and systems in hockey are part of the game. Goalie equipment
Go slow, I’m stupid. And math isn’t my strong suit.
Crosby has 77 points this year, that is 35% higher than it should be if this was the 2015 season. 35% less would be …. 49 points in 2015 so far.
Extrapolating that over 82 games out 2022 Crosby at 66 points in 2015.
That makes him the 22nd most productive scorer in 2015.
Fire Sweeney
Registered User
Video Nasty
Registered User
- Mar 12, 2017
- 5,937
- 10,464
Your reply only further illustrates how pointless these adjustments are. There’s infinite factors to consider and unless it plays out in real life, we’ll never know.
filinski77
Registered User
- Feb 12, 2017
- 2,730
- 4,560
I used /gp stats to extrapolate a /gp amount.
And you have to be careful when using % increases and % decreases. For example, you're saying 35% less than 77 points is 49 points. 1.35x 49 points is only 66 points (it does not get you back to the 77 point benchmark you originally used).
I don't have the time to explain basic math, so if you can't understand it, I really don't think I have a need to be debating with you anyways.
Bear of Bad News
"The Worst Guy on the Site" - user feedback
- Sep 27, 2005
- 14,703
- 30,360
So you have received responses, then, just not ones you "accept". That's fine.
If an adjustment solves some problems but isn't perfect, the solution isn't to "do nothing and live with the unadjusted".
This method doesn't work as Hockey Reference has already adjusted for season length for partial seasons (including this one). This is why AMs adjusted goals is 65 even though he's only scored 58. It wouldn't make sense for the highest scoring season since 95-96 to be adjusted so far up.
Strangle
Leafs Smol PP
- May 4, 2009
- 9,804
- 7,073
Didn’t you ‘dismiss’ me days ago and say “stop replying to me”? Or was that someone else? I can’t remember.
I know that 35% of 66 isn’t the same number as 35% of 77 lol
What I’m trying to get across (and maybe I’m not doing a great job of it, or maybe i am and you just don’t agree which is also fine), is that when you start adjusting stats back and forth for different players you start seeing the theory fall apart.
Adjusting for era started in an attempt to try to make gretzky’s stats make some kind of sense, since they are so outrageous. What we’ve gotten into now is adjusting season by season. People are era adjusting random seasons with random seasons, even in the modern era.
I have issues with even adjusting gretzky’s stats, but things get even more ridiculous when you start adjusting years very close together.
There are way too many variables (known and unknown) to simply take a years average goal scoring and make that an arbitrary comparison point. It suggests that there is a baseline NHL league wide scoring stat that all years should be able to be compared to.
Maybe that baseline exists, but I’ve seen no evidence that it does. League scoring is not predictable, it’s chaotic.
If I’m pulling a number out, maybe it’s 6. The league at its equilibrium is (to save an argument, if you’re inclined you can try to find the average between all league scoring and use that) is expecting 6 goals per game.
That would mean that every year, you’d adjust either up or down from 6 to find where that player is performing. League scoring is under 6? Adjust all the players stats up. League scoring is over 6? Adjust all players stats down.
Then you can have the ‘adjusted stats’ leaderboards every year! Where in 2022 Matthews goals are worth 1 on the scoreboard, but only 0.65 goals on the leaderboard. And ovechkin’s 2015 season is worth 1.15 goals on the leaderboard, but still only 1 on the scoreboard.
If the league scoring for that year is bang on 6 goals per game, no adjustments are necessary, we can just use their raw totals.
Now this sounds absolutely ridiculous to me, but if you’re going to go this far with adjusted stats, why not just take it all the way?
TheStatican
Registered User
- Mar 14, 2012
- 1,746
- 1,542
Yes I see what your saying. The list is still accurate for everyone else except AM which is already adjusted to a full season at his current paces for goals(and games) meaning his totals would be 65/76 = 0.855
Two4Fighting
Registered User
- Oct 17, 2007
- 1,302
- 861
andrjusha
Registered User
Since posting of this thread Matthews went 0 goals in three games and injured for the fourth.
Power of jinx is strong with this one!
Power of jinx is strong with this one!
Ad
Upcoming events
-
Australian Open - Women Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaWagers: 1Staked: $500.00Event closes- Updated:
-
Australian Open - Men Novak Djokovic vs Carlos AlcarazWagers: 1Staked: $2,014.00Event closes
- Updated:
-
-
-