Has Dubas failed at his job?

[Zybalto]

Dont post anything related to Simmons guys. Bottom feeder that makes JFJ look like Bowman.

 

[Blowfish]

At the cost of dismantling a young, promising team over 3 short seasons with nothing to show for it.

Oh well, only a few weeks until we see what his latest group can do.

Not that young anymore...

 

[Mess]

At the cost of dismantling a young, promising team over 3 short seasons with nothing to show for it.

Oh well, only a few weeks until we see what his latest group can do.

A fresh new season with a different set of reshuffled deck chairs surrounding a top heavy cap $$$ core 4 with expectations of a different outcome this time round, by doing the same thing over and over again, is at our doorstep.

Any dismantling won't happen until next off-season, but it always begins with unbridled optimism during the regular season, until realism sets in during the playoffs, and then pessimism and changes rule the off-season, when expectations for success are not achieved and disappointment rules supreme.

I think the majority of Leaf fans would suggest this is the last chance for this GM and this core 4 to prove themselves this year come playoff time or changes will be inevitable, in both management and player personnel beyond just tinkering around the edges. IMO

 

[AllDay28]

Leafs are currently the 4th lowest odds to win the Stanley Cup. If that’s considered a failure to people around here well… nothing said in a forum discussion will change your mind

 

[justashadowof]

Many have said it and it's still green today: the Leafs' star players got paid premium money before they accomplished anything in the playoffs.

 

[Racer88]

Not that young anymore...

I think I read somewhere that the Leafs are something like the 3rd oldest average team in the league

 

[hotpaws]

Leafs are currently the 4th lowest odds to win the Stanley Cup. If that’s considered a failure to people around here well… nothing said in a forum discussion will change your mind

Vegas sets the odds on the money they take in and as the largest fan base in the league we move the odds lower than they would be if it were just based them on who they believed had the best chances of winning the cup .

 

[zeke]

Because one of those ill timed additions has ultimately resulted in the subtraction Kap, Johnsson, Brown, Hyman, Kadri, an 11th(?) overall draft pick, and probably others I'm forgetting

You want those guys instead of Tavares, Muzzin, Brodie?

No thanks.

 

[zeke]

Your answers as a rule are anything but clear, you mostly just spin and spin to avoid giving a straight answer. As far as us losing goes, you keep giving the same reasons - goaltending and choking dogs which is fine if that's your opinion. Our goalies played quite well in the last two playoffs though so you're just wrong.

This "threat" of not answering my question is an empty one since you're doing this already. Remember when you said that every post I've ever made was wrong and my response was to ask you - "what about all the times that I agreed with you - was I wrong then as well"? The list of questions you haven't answered is a long one but one one sticks in my brain as it was so funny. I mean it's hard to see how you could answer without admitting that at one point or another you were wrong so of course, you disappeared.

Feel free to answer that one now. Can you give a simple answer this one time without spinning like a top? A simple yes or no is all that's required - all those time that I agreed with you, was I wrong then too?

1. I have answered every one your questions, clearly. Yet you feign ignorance and pretend not to remember.

2. You have run away and hid from every single question I have ever asked you.

I've also asked you how you can keep going on about what a great team we have when it's leaders are choking dogs. Seems like a pretty big conflict there so not surprised you don't have an answer.

As always, I will answer your questions clearly.

The answer is I don't believe "choking" is a skill or a permanent phenomenon, even if it is an accurate description of what has happened recently.

Asked, and answered. As always. You should try it sometime.

 

[zeke]

When is Danault not trying to score? In addition to his defensive rep, hes one of the best playmaking centers in the league, especially when playing with Gallagher (for reasons I'll explain later). Better 5v5 assist/60 numbers than most of his peers including Draisatl and Barkov for an extended time now.

When is Gallagher not trying to score? Masked by his injury issues, Gallagher is one of the top 5 most effective 5v5 goal scorers in the NHL.

Most 5v5 goals/60 in the NHL this past year?

1. Matthews
4. Gallagher

Hell, going back to the start of 2018:

Most 5v5 goals/60 in the NHL since the start of the 2018 season?

1. Matthews
2. Gallagher

Their underlying numbers certainly paint a picture of how effective they were during the regular season too.

Just focusing on Danault (as they have similar numbers here anyways)

CF%: 58.54
SF%: 59.22
xGF%: 57.82
GF%: 59.76

Daunault wasnt just a beast defensively, he also provided a ton of offense while playing against the best in the North (including the Leafs 1/6 of the time). He got the McDavids and Scheifeles and Matthews of the league every night.

How did he do in the playoffs?

CF%: 48.26
SF%: 40.10
xGF%: 34.89
GF%: 0.00 (-3)

You know damn well those are Brett Lebda type numbers and a shockingly bad performance considering the expectations.

His numbers shot way up once he got past the Leafs (55%+ xGF and GF% the rest of the way) but he certainly got stomped by Matthews in the series. The only things that stopped Matthews were a) Price and b) Matthews himself hitting all those posts (fair criticism here). To say Danault shut down Matthews and was trying not to score is pure fantasy.

You are right though in saying Montreal is a great xGF% team...and the Leafs absolutely dominated them in xGF%.

Fair enough. You make a good case.

I agree that the depth players promoted to fill in gaps produced well.....the problem is that it was atrocious after that. 6 out of 15 forwards accounted for 86.5% (32-5) of the point totals for forwards. Matthews and Marner may have underperformed points-wise but they completely negated whoever they were put up against and Nylanders line outscored their opponents as well. Outside of Spezza, the third and 4th lines (and bottom pairing) were overall pretty putrid.

I don't see it - the depth produced, period. Even with 2/3 of the 3rd line bumped up to the 2nd line we still had Spezza driving an additional line producing beyond that.

Again, if we do it by actual initial lines in game 1:

Line 1: 2gls, 10pts
Line 2: 5gls, 9pts
Line 3: 2gls, 10pts
Line 4: 4gls, 7pts

And it's line 1 that got all the PP time, too.

 

[Twine Tickler]

That "homegrown" version is interesting to think about and the way things have gone, it's natural to think about how things would have worked out had we gone down a different path. I do the same, sometimes I wonder whether or not signing Tavares was a bad move in hindsight? I still can't get there though, he's a great player and has played well for us but it's hard to be 100% sure about that either. And it's an interesting point you make about Match and Auston being forced to be the leaders, maybe there's something to that as well.

Onward for sure. Upward? Well, I guess we'll see about that. We're all hoping ...

Ya it is really a tough call. I've long thought the JT signing was the one mistake KD would like to have back. I think the money JT got was fair given he was a UFA, and that was the price to acquire a player of his caliber. Many teams offered the same, and I even believe some teams offered more. He was arguably one of the biggest UFA's to ever hit the market and leave his team. We all knew the price was more than what he deserved, but like I said, that was the offer it needed to be to acquire John. Unfortunately it set a price point for Mitch and Auston that was too tough to navigate away from. It was pretty well impossible without having a Nylander level showdown with all 3 young guns thereafter. WHo knows what those boys would have signed for had JT not been signed. I'd have to think it would be at least 15-20% less on each of their deals. Which would have saved us anywhere from 4. to 6 Million AAV in addition to the 11million AAV that was spent on JT. If we take the high side of that figure (20% savings) we would have roughly 17 million to have retained the likes of Hyman, Brown, Kappy, Johnnson, and Kadri likely.

That said, there is no way this roster would be comprised like that for 5 straight years without a cup IMO. There is always tinkering. And even if that squad was able to press on through to the next round, our failures would just shifted to never being able to get past the 2nd round. Which would result in some form of roster "improvement". That team also would be without 1 hell of a player in JT. I think a lot of people on here forget just how good JT is. He does absolutely everything right, and to be honest he's been more productive than we should have ever expected from him coming over at 27 years old. He had his career high in points the first year here, and has hovered around a pt/game in his time over the 3 years. Not to mention he plays both sides of the ice very well, and does a lot of the little things that are required to win it all.

I do wonder what could have been, but I just don't think that I would classify the signing of JT a complete f***up on KD's end. It was a calculated risk that has not paid off yet, and maybe not ever. Way too hard to tell what our home grown boys would have done if they all managed to stay together. All I know is that with JT we've had an 82 game season of 100Pts, an 2 shortened seasons that paced out to 95 and 112pt seasons. So it's really hard to tell. And also really hard to tell what his impact on those seasons was to those pt totals.

All I know is he is a very good player. One that you win with. Does everything right, and has an amazing work ethic on and off the ice. Pretty hard to pass up on a guy like that when he comes available

 

[geo25]

A fresh new season with a different set of reshuffled deck chairs surrounding a top heavy cap $$$ core 4 with expectations of a different outcome this time round, by doing the same thing over and over again, is at our doorstep.

Any dismantling won't happen until next off-season, but it always begins with unbridled optimism during the regular season, until realism sets in during the playoffs, and then pessimism and changes rule the off-season, when expectations for success are not achieved.

I think the majority of Leaf fans would suggest this is the last chance for this GM and this core 4 to prove themselves this year come playoff time or changes will be inevitable, in both management and player personnel beyond just tinkering around the edges. IMO

 

[geo25]

I hope you're right. This last debacle still hurts. In all honesty, I agree with you. This is just a reshuffling of the deck chairs on the Titanic....

 

[geo25]

Many have said it and it's still green today: the Leafs' star players got paid premium money before they accomplished anything in the playoffs.

Paid for potential instead of results. What an idiot....

 

[Apex Predator]

We’ll know the answer to this question in 10 months.

still lots of time for it to go either way.

 

[myleafs]

These guys playing are fair weather friends. They want it but don’t have the character,will or desire to fight the dirty fight of playoffs. Seen it five times in a row with mostly the same players failing to show enough character to battle.

Shinnyhan can stop the B.S optimism. This franchise has no fight in it from the top down. No fire,no anger and it seems a unacceptable degree acceptance of failure.

Thats just the not something they want to hear. Some fans on here don’t want to hear that their adv stat princesses are gutless losers but its true. We watched it far to long.

Soft disengaged teams are losers. They can kid themselves, I’m not buying it. That’s why Kraft Dinner went out and got some heavies finally. Bout f***** time. Intangibles,scrapping and intensity was missing. Was there ever any doubt that was the issue. The top players should get in line for their helping of it because it must have ran out the last time they lined up

Haha Simmons asks the questions that challenges them and they hate it lol

Not a fan of the name calling stuff but everything else I agree with. This team has been butter soft and way too nicey nice for a few years now.

 

[ottomaddox]

Dont post anything related to Simmons guys. Bottom feeder that makes JFJ look like Bowman.

Stan Bowman?

 

[Twine Tickler]

A fresh new season with a different set of reshuffled deck chairs surrounding a top heavy cap $$$ core 4 with expectations of a different outcome this time round, by doing the same thing over and over again, is at our doorstep.

Any dismantling won't happen until next off-season, but it always begins with unbridled optimism during the regular season, until realism sets in during the playoffs, and then pessimism and changes rule the off-season, when expectations for success are not achieved.

I think the majority of Leaf fans would suggest this is the last chance for this GM and this core 4 to prove themselves this year come playoff time or changes will be inevitable, in both management and player personnel beyond just tinkering around the edges. IMO

Ya I'd think that is a fair assessment. I really think this is a make it or break it season for these boys. There is no denying the talent. The tough part is that that talent still oddly has a lot of miles left. It just seems like they've been in the league forever.

I am hoping they give this 2 more attempts. It sounds like an absolutely crazy logic because we've seen the same script 5 times over already. Hear me out first:

In 2 years time, our core group would still be tremendously valuable league wide. Matthews and Willy will be entering their final years before their deals and will become UFA the following year. I'm really not sure how interested Matthews will be in resigning in Toronto if we cannot break through by then. The media and fan scrutiny would be way too much for anyone. Just listen to Jose Theodore's most recent interview on chicklets. It would be that on steroids. No way he'd resign. Without Matthews, there is no point in "retooling", it is a complete gut job at that point IMO. We kind of have to go in the direction that Auston decides. If Auston won't sign a reasonable extension in the summer of 2023 we have to trade him. No if's, and's, or but's. We absolutely cannot lose that level of talent for nothing in UFA. That is not a player you can "own rental". If Matthews does in fact want to resign, we could consider a retool around him. Move out Marner and/or Willy for whatever is needed to get us to the next level. BUT, if he doesn't want to resign we could get a massive haul for him @ 50% retention, Mitch 50% retention and Willy straight up. We could have 1st round picks and blue chip prospects up that ass with those players returns. It would be a Ottawa level rebuild with the deep pockets to eventually be able to afford those players. And with a better scouting staff. We could afford to retain on Matthews for his final year, and Marner's final 2 years, because at that time we'd want to be shit to get a high pick. We could also explore something similar with JT, as I am sure he would not want any part of a rebuild and would gladly oblige to waive his NTC.

Sure we could do all of that next year, or a modified version of that next year. But if we only have 2 more seasons with Auston as a Leaf, which unfortunately is a sad reality that is entirely possible, we need to give him the best players to try and win it all with. Hard to think we will get better players in return than Mitch and Willy in a trade that involves them. We really have to view these next 2 seasons as an all or nothing IMO. Like it or not, I think that has to be the plan. And just pray for the same level of maturation that we saw in WASH and TB

 

[egd27]

You want those guys instead of Tavares, Muzzin, Brodie?

No thanks.

Did I not mention Muzzin and Brodie as examples of astute additions? Why did you not include that in your quoting of the post?

Don't bother answering, I have a feeling most other posters know why.

 

[zeke]

Did I not mention Muzzin and Brodie as examples of astute additions? Why did you not include that in your quoting of the post?

Don't bother answering, I have a feeling most other posters know why.

Seems like you're trying to have it both ways - claiming that the team was torn apart while admitting they added much better players than they lost.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Leafs are currently the 4th lowest odds to win the Stanley Cup. If that’s considered a failure to people around here well… nothing said in a forum discussion will change your mind

It's not that that's a failure, it's that it's irrelevant. The goal isn't to be a team with a ton of talent that should have a ton of playoff success, the goal is to actually have that success.

1. I have answered every one your questions, clearly. Yet you feign ignorance and pretend not to remember.

2. You have run away and hid from every single question I have ever asked you.

As always, I will answer your questions clearly.

1. You claim you've always answered all my questions and will continue to do yet you didn't answer simple question in the very post that you're quoting:

Remember when you said that every post I've ever made was wrong and my response was to ask you - "what about all the times that I agreed with you - was I wrong then as well"?

You claim to always answer my questions and do so clearly, why didn't you answer? Here's another chance, it's a simple yes/no answer so do try to be clear. Go.

I've always answered questions from you or anyone else, if you want to know something then feel free to ask. My only caveat is that I won't answer questions that seem irrelevant. Like you asked me about moves by Leaf GM's over a decade ago - sorry but I don't care. You were pestering me for a long time to answer some question about the Avalanche - again, I don't care. Ask me anything you want about the current Leafs (or at least don't go too far back in time) and I will answer you, just like I have always done.

The answer is I don't believe "choking" is a skill or a permanent phenomenon, even if it is an accurate description of what has happened recently.

Asked, and answered. As always. You should try it sometime.

You didn't say that our stars "choked", what you said was that our stars are choking dogs which clearly implies that there's no reason to expect them not to choke in the future. It was a ridiculous thing to say so now you're changing your statement, at least you realized what you said was ridiculous, that's something I guess.

Ya it is really a tough call. I've long thought the JT signing was the one mistake KD would like to have back. I think the money JT got was fair given he was a UFA, and that was the price to acquire a player of his caliber. Many teams offered the same, and I even believe some teams offered more. He was arguably one of the biggest UFA's to ever hit the market and leave his team. We all knew the price was more than what he deserved, but like I said, that was the offer it needed to be to acquire John. Unfortunately it set a price point for Mitch and Auston that was too tough to navigate away from. It was pretty well impossible without having a Nylander level showdown with all 3 young guns thereafter. WHo knows what those boys would have signed for had JT not been signed. I'd have to think it would be at least 15-20% less on each of their deals. Which would have saved us anywhere from 4. to 6 Million AAV in addition to the 11million AAV that was spent on JT. If we take the high side of that figure (20% savings) we would have roughly 17 million to have retained the likes of Hyman, Brown, Kappy, Johnnson, and Kadri likely.

That said, there is no way this roster would be comprised like that for 5 straight years without a cup IMO. There is always tinkering. And even if that squad was able to press on through to the next round, our failures would just shifted to never being able to get past the 2nd round. Which would result in some form of roster "improvement". That team also would be without 1 hell of a player in JT. I think a lot of people on here forget just how good JT is. He does absolutely everything right, and to be honest he's been more productive than we should have ever expected from him coming over at 27 years old. He had his career high in points the first year here, and has hovered around a pt/game in his time over the 3 years. Not to mention he plays both sides of the ice very well, and does a lot of the little things that are required to win it all.

I do wonder what could have been, but I just don't think that I would classify the signing of JT a complete f***up on KD's end. It was a calculated risk that has not paid off yet, and maybe not ever. Way too hard to tell what our home grown boys would have done if they all managed to stay together. All I know is that with JT we've had an 82 game season of 100Pts, an 2 shortened seasons that paced out to 95 and 112pt seasons. So it's really hard to tell. And also really hard to tell what his impact on those seasons was to those pt totals.

All I know is he is a very good player. One that you win with. Does everything right, and has an amazing work ethic on and off the ice. Pretty hard to pass up on a guy like that when he comes available

Agreed.

Ya I'd think that is a fair assessment. I really think this is a make it or break it season for these boys. There is no denying the talent. The tough part is that that talent still oddly has a lot of miles left. It just seems like they've been in the league forever.

I am hoping they give this 2 more attempts. It sounds like an absolutely crazy logic because we've seen the same script 5 times over already. Hear me out first:

In 2 years time, our core group would still be tremendously valuable league wide. Matthews and Willy will be entering their final years before their deals and will become UFA the following year. I'm really not sure how interested Matthews will be in resigning in Toronto if we cannot break through by then. The media and fan scrutiny would be way too much for anyone. Just listen to Jose Theodore's most recent interview on chicklets. It would be that on steroids. No way he'd resign. Without Matthews, there is no point in "retooling", it is a complete gut job at that point IMO. We kind of have to go in the direction that Auston decides. If Auston won't sign a reasonable extension in the summer of 2023 we have to trade him. No if's, and's, or but's. We absolutely cannot lose that level of talent for nothing in UFA. That is not a player you can "own rental". If Matthews does in fact want to resign, we could consider a retool around him. Move out Marner and/or Willy for whatever is needed to get us to the next level. BUT, if he doesn't want to resign we could get a massive haul for him @ 50% retention, Mitch 50% retention and Willy straight up. We could have 1st round picks and blue chip prospects up that ass with those players returns. It would be a Ottawa level rebuild with the deep pockets to eventually be able to afford those players. And with a better scouting staff. We could afford to retain on Matthews for his final year, and Marner's final 2 years, because at that time we'd want to be shit to get a high pick. We could also explore something similar with JT, as I am sure he would not want any part of a rebuild and would gladly oblige to waive his NTC.

Sure we could do all of that next year, or a modified version of that next year. But if we only have 2 more seasons with Auston as a Leaf, which unfortunately is a sad reality that is entirely possible, we need to give him the best players to try and win it all with. Hard to think we will get better players in return than Mitch and Willy in a trade that involves them. We really have to view these next 2 seasons as an all or nothing IMO. Like it or not, I think that has to be the plan. And just pray for the same level of maturation that we saw in WASH and TB

Fair enough. If it was up to me then I'd see what we could get for Marner today but I get what you're saying and I can respect that opinion.

 

[egd27]

Seems like you're trying to have it both ways - claiming that the team was torn apart while admitting they added much better players than they lost.

I am sure that’s exactly how it seems to you.

 

[zeke]

I

1. You claim you've always answered all my questions and will continue to do yet you didn't answer simple question in the very post that you're quoting:

Remember when you said that every post I've ever made was wrong and my response was to ask you - "what about all the times that I agreed with you - was I wrong then as well"?

You claim to always answer my questions and do so clearly, why didn't you answer? Here's another chance, it's a simple yes/no answer so do try to be clear. Go.

I can't answer a hypothetical question. I have no idea what arguments you agreed with me on. Ask me about actual arguments you made, and I can answer.

I've always answered questions from you or anyone else, if you want to know something then feel free to ask. My only caveat is that I won't answer questions that seem irrelevant. Like you asked me about moves by Leaf GM's over a decade ago - sorry but I don't care. You were pestering me for a long time to answer some question about the Avalanche - again, I don't care. Ask me anything you want about the current Leafs (or at least don't go too far back in time) and I will answer you, just like I have always done.

You have run away and hid from every question I could think of to have you finally put your criticisms of the leafs in objective context via other teams and gms.

And we all know why.

You didn't say that our stars "choked", what you said was that our stars are choking dogs which clearly implies that there's no reason to expect them not to choke in the future. It was a ridiculous thing to say so now you're changing your statement, at least you realized what you said was ridiculous, that's something I guess.

They choked like dogs. It happened. Nothing ridiculous about it. I'm sure I never posted even one word that implied that this was a permanent characteristic of them as players, and I know you keep "forgetting" my answers to your questions, so i'm not going to trust your half remembered paraphrase of my arguments back then, sorry.

 

[zeke]

I am sure that’s exactly how it seems to you.

I am also sure.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

the only think Dubas has failed at is getting a legit LW for the top line. thats it. thats all.

Stamkos and Hedman didn't jack squat for 10 years, 5 of those years Kucherov was there too.
Ovie, Backstrom, and the boys needed 14 years to win. ONLY ONCE EVER have they passed the 2nd round.

Matthews, Marner, and Tavares have been together for 3 years.

winning is not easy. it doesn't happen often. Leafs fans think winning is easy and its just a matter of snapping your fingers.

Dubas, the last 3 years since adding Tavares, has put together the most talent Leafs Nation has seen since 1993.

Its up to the players to execute and do their jobs.

Completely on your side here. This was the first year in a long time that the leafs actually played a solid 200 ft game and had pretty consistent efforts. Despite Dubas allocating so much money to 4 forwards he has done a pretty good job of balancing out the roster. Goaltending is still a question mark but our Defense is solid and we still have one of the best top 6 groups in the league. The only thing is we've been slowly losing scoring depth from our bottom 6 with the losses of Kadri, Kap and Johnsson. The only thing I didn't really like about our roster was adding Thornton who was too slow for the style we needed to play.

For this coming season we still have some question marks for our depth scoring. Kase is a good player but can he stay healthy? Can Ritchie add some balance of scoring and grittiness to our roster? Hoping he can be a 40 pt player. What will Bunting be? Can Mikheyev return to his 49 pt pace that he had in his first year?

I wouldn't have been upset about this team not winning the cup the last 3 years but the fact that we haven't got out of the first round is very upsetting. We should've beat Boston that 2nd go around in game 6 but they blew a lead because of a lack of effort and choked in game 7. Then we lose to 2 teams who we were supposed to easily beat. One of which we had a 3-1 series lead. The players need to find a way to get it done.