Has Dubas failed at his job?

[mydnyte]

I get it. He didn't get us a #1 goalie and that's fine. But IMO that's no excuse for spending futures on rentals. I disagree that acquiring rentals was the smart thing, the smart thing was to stand pat and not spend the futures.



Man that heart's been killing me these last few years ...



What you don't get is that you win and lose as a team. You keep making excuses, if only this or that part of the team wasn't pulling us down then ...

Excuses are for losers. Perhaps you should think about that next time you go on a posting spree telling us how good this team is.

The last 4 years we were outscored 18-6 in deciding games, 11-2 the last 3 years. If you're desperate to pump this team's tires then you're going to have to come up with something better than blame the goalie.



Depending on how you define dud, I might put a few bob on Marner. But forget M&M for a moment and let me ask you this - if in the next 5 years, we got past the first round 2/3 times, got past the 2nd round once but never went further than that would be that be a decent outcome? Or would you think the team underachieved? Would the team still be a playoff dud? Or would you consider a few playoff series victories to be a breakthrough.



I think so far Dubas has done some good things and some bad things. IMO his worst move so far is this offseason assuming he stays the course as seems to be the case. He needs to understand that the flat cap has screwed up his plans and staying the course likely dooms us to not winning the cup for several more years.

we could have lost in OT in game 7 of the Cup finals, and people would still call us chokers!
to quote the immortal Ricky Bobby:

 

[zeke]

Those dont really match up as actual lines though right?

In terms of individual production, there seems to be a clear cutoff of those who scored 4+ points and those that scored 1 or less:

Points:
Nylander: 8
Kerfoot: 6
Matthews: 5
Spezza: 5
Marner: 4
Galchenyuk: 4

-----------------

Hyman: 1
Foligno: 1
Thornton: 1
Engvall: 1
Simmonds: 1
Mikheyev: 0
Nash: 0
Brooks: 0
Tavares: 0 (injured)


(I did make an error in my OP too of course in that it was 6 forwards that combined for 32 points and 8 that combined for 5, 9 if you want to count Tavares like you did)

Its not quite fair to just base performance off of points production though, especially seeing how the series was a rather low scoring one. How did these same players fare win overall 5v5 goal differential and xGF% (you do still like xGF% right?) Leaving out Tavares here for obvious reasons.

Goal differential:

1. Hyman
2. Marner
3. Matthews
4. Spezza
5. Foligno
6. Galchenyuk
7. Kerfoot
8. Nylander
9. Mikheyev
10. Nash

-----------------------50%

11. Simmonds
12. Engvall
13. Thornton
14. Brooks

xGF%:

1. Engvall
2. Marner
3. Hyman
4. Simmonds
5. Matthews
6. Spezza
7. Mikheyev
8. Nylander
9. Foligno
10. Kerfoot

-------------------------50%

11. Thornton
12. Brooks
13. Galchenyuk
14. Nash


Some players fare better than others here in showing their value to the team like Hyman but you do have to notice that only 3 players are top 6 in all three of points scored, goal differential and xGF% right?

I wouldnt be casting many stones in their direction.

If we are going to ignore the injury issues and once again finding a stupid good goaltending performance in front of us, I would instead be glaring at the totally useless (Brooks/Thornton/Nash/Mikheyev) and the players who gave games away (Galchenyuk, Dermott).

Actual lines? No.

But you can't say the depth was bad when they were forced up higher in the lineup to sub in for injured players and produced very well.

That's good depth, not bad depth.

 

[4thline]

A team stacked with young talent that smashed franchise rookie scoring records. If you didn't think this team's future looked bright when Dubas took over than I think you're the only one.

It definitely looked bright, but there were those of us that acknowledged that there was an ELC boost and that avoiding a major step back when they ended was going to take some fancy footwork.

I also think there's a very visceral and irrational reaction by people that *expected* a cup by now rather than hoped for one that feel like Dubas robbed them of a sure thing, and that's, as I said, irrational. At no point were we on the last leg of a 4x100 with a 10m lead as one poster put it.

 

[mydnyte]

Are people hoping that hitting the post becomes an official stat?

I would argue that close to scoring, almost scored, might have scored is not scoring a goal.

hockey nets need a curved triangular redesign (similar to a Reuleaux triangle), so almost anything that hits the side of the post goes in.

 

[zeke]

You seem to be obsessed with Freddie. Newsflash - he wasn't our goalie in these playoffs.

We've been outscored 18-6 in the last 4 series deciding games, 11-2 in the last 3, in the last two playoffs, our goaltending was more than good enough to win and saying that's the reason we lost suggests you either have an agenda or you don't understand hockey.

Why are you pretending that I haven't given you other reasons - in clear and direct answers to your very questions, no less?

I might have to stop answering your questions if you're going to ignore my answers.

Still waiting for you to answer any one of my questions, of course.

You called our players choking dogs. I think that shows a lack of class on your part and it also doesn't jive with you saying what a great team is. It also suggests that if anyone's angry around here, it's you.

Wat?

So now you say I haven't answered "any" of your questions? That's rich, even for you buddy. If I show you some posts where you've asked and I've answered, will you admit you're wrong?

Yep.

A team stacked with young talent that smashed franchise rookie scoring records. If you didn't think this team's future looked bright when Dubas took over than I think you're the only one.

A team with franchise talent....all immediately due huge raises, while the team was capped out, with no impact ELC talent coming up, and a few doozy untraceable contracts to boot.

And oh yeah - the goalie he inherited completely fell apart, too.

And oh yeah - according to you all that franchise talent he inherited was also fatally flawed - a bunch of losers that need to be traded. Almost forgot about that.

 

[Zybalto]

We've been outscored 18-6 in the last 4 series deciding games, 11-2 in the last 3. That's not luck.

Just looking at the last two years final games:

Shots: 64-45 Leafs combined
Scoring Chances: 50-38 Leafs combined
Opposing team save%: 1.000, .977
Leafs team save%: .864, .870

Injury issues: Hyman on one leg and Muzzin out against the Jackets, Tavares out against the Habs along with Matthews and Folgino playing through injury and Muzzin out again. Both opposing teams healthy.

Leafs goalies gave up soft goals in both games. Opposing goalies were beyond solid amidst the best play of their life (Korpisalo) and a career renaissance (Price).

So the Leafs badly outshoot and outchance their opponents while playing through crazy injuries and run into the best goalie performances of that particular playoffs? I'd say thats pretty damn unlucky.

 

[justashadowof]

I guess you can create that arbitrary data point and ignore quality of play and opponent, but that's not data based either.

The team lost in consecutive years 1st round series to opponents with below .500 records. Is that empirical enough data for you? Maybe that will make more sense if you you divide it by 5 then multiply by 82.

 

[justashadowof]

According to Simmonds, no team with 5 consecutive 1st round loses has gone on to win the SC. When informed Shanny stumbled over his words and pretty much said there will always be a first.

I presume this is Steve Simmons not Wayne Simmonds. Gotta say I'm torn that Steve Simmons is using one of my talking points. Did he actually bring this up to Shanahan? That's pure gold if he did.

 

[zeke]

Those dont really match up as actual lines though right?

In terms of individual production, there seems to be a clear cutoff of those who scored 4+ points and those that scored 1 or less:

Points:
Nylander: 8
Kerfoot: 6
Matthews: 5
Spezza: 5
Marner: 4
Galchenyuk: 4

-----------------

Hyman: 1
Foligno: 1
Thornton: 1
Engvall: 1
Simmonds: 1
Mikheyev: 0
Nash: 0
Brooks: 0
Tavares: 0 (injured)


(I did make an error in my OP too of course in that it was 6 forwards that combined for 32 points and 8 that combined for 5, 9 if you want to count Tavares like you did)

Its not quite fair to just base performance off of points production though, especially seeing how the series was a rather low scoring one. How did these same players fare win overall 5v5 goal differential and xGF% (you do still like xGF% right?) Leaving out Tavares here for obvious reasons.

Goal differential:

1. Hyman
2. Marner
3. Matthews
4. Spezza
5. Foligno
6. Galchenyuk
7. Kerfoot
8. Nylander
9. Mikheyev
10. Nash

-----------------------50%

11. Simmonds
12. Engvall
13. Thornton
14. Brooks

xGF%:

1. Engvall
2. Marner
3. Hyman
4. Simmonds
5. Matthews
6. Spezza
7. Mikheyev
8. Nylander
9. Foligno
10. Kerfoot

-------------------------50%

11. Thornton
12. Brooks
13. Galchenyuk
14. Nash


Some players fare better than others here in showing their value to the team like Hyman but you do have to notice that only 3 players are top 6 in all three of points scored, goal differential and xGF% right?

I wouldnt be casting many stones in their direction.

If we are going to ignore the injury issues and once again finding a stupid good goaltending performance in front of us, I would instead be glaring at the totally useless (Brooks/Thornton/Nash/Mikheyev) and the players who gave games away (Galchenyuk, Dermott).

I get it - our best players did outplayed their checkers.....but unfortunately they just didn't score anywhere near enough. Holding Danault off the scoresheet when he's not even trying to score isn't much of an accomplishment.

As for xgf%, the depth was fine there as well - only a few guys were underwater there, even though MTL Is a good xgf% team.

The only guys significantly underwater in xgf were:

Thornton 46.2% - #12F
Galchenyuk 36.8% - #13F - wasn't even dressed for gm1
Nash 15.4% - #14/15F only dressed twice
Brooks 41.8% - #14/15F only dressed twice

Basically all 4 of those guys were battling for one spot- the very last forward spot, and were the only depth forwards notably underwater against a good xgf team.

 

[zeke]

I presume this is Steve Simmons not Wayne Simmonds. Gotta say I'm torn that Steve Simmons is using one of my talking points. Did he actually bring this up to Shanahan? That's pure gold if he did.

Trust your gut my friend.

 

[ottomaddox]

It definitely looked bright, but there were those of us that acknowledged that there was an ELC boost and that avoiding a major step back when they ended was going to take some fancy footwork.

I also think there's a very visceral and irrational reaction by people that *expected* a cup by now rather than hoped for one that feel like Dubas robbed them of a sure thing, and that's, as I said, irrational. At no point were we on the last leg of a 4x100 with a 10m lead as one poster put it.

I see your point and agree, but sadly the bar is set so low now. TOR didn't even make the playoffs in the 2019-2020 season. Last year they rolled over when they had an opportunity to eliminate MTL. I couldn't watch game 7 and torture myself again.

The fact that fans are begging for a post-season series win is pretty sad, and is an indictment on Shanny + Dubas.

 

[justashadowof]

Trust your gut my friend.

You're right. As hated as Steve Simmons is he's still way more dialed to reality than MLSE influencers on social media.

 

[egd27]

Correct. A capped out team needing to give huge raises to its elite talent, with no impact ELC talent at all in the system, and a few doozy untradeable contracts to deal with too. And oh yeah, the starting goalie he inherited completely fell apart, too.

Wow.......the belief that Dubas took over an unenviable situation seems to me to indicate some alternate reality is coming into play.

(BTW....A capped out team generally cannot hand out 7 X $11M contracts)

 

[zeke]

Just looking at the last two years final games:

Shots: 64-45 Leafs combined
Scoring Chances: 50-38 Leafs combined
Opposing team save%: 1.000, .977
Leafs team save%: .864, .870

Injury issues: Hyman on one leg and Muzzin out against the Jackets, Tavares out against the Habs along with Matthews and Folgino playing through injury and Muzzin out again. Both opposing teams healthy.

Leafs goalies gave up soft goals in both games. Opposing goalies were beyond solid amidst the best play of their life (Korpisalo) and a career renaissance (Price).

So the Leafs badly outshoot and outchance their opponents while playing through crazy injuries and run into the best goalie performances of that particular playoffs? I'd say thats pretty damn unlucky.

Certainly luck is involved, but it may also be a clear example of choking.

Nothing to do with not being good enough or not playing well enough - just simply messing up the critical chances in the most critical moments.

 

[zeke]

You're right. As hated as Steve Simmons is he's still way more dialed to reality than MLSE influencers on social media.

Don't kill yourself on this hill.

 

[justashadowof]

I see your point and agree, but sadly the bar is set so low now. TOR didn't even make the playoffs in the 2019-2020 season. Last year they rolled over when they had an opportunity to eliminate MTL. I couldn't watch game 7 and torture myself again.

The fact that fans are begging for a post-season series win is pretty sad, and is an indictment on Shanny + Dubas.

We can't eliminate the possibility that Austin Matthews carries the team on his back through a future 1st round series. Expectations have been lowered to the point that a single 1st round win followed by a quick 2nd round exit would be lauded as an advancement.

 

[justashadowof]

Don't kill yourself on this hill.

Reality. That's rich for you. And the other socks you keep in your drawer.

 

[zeke]

(BTW....A capped out team generally cannot hand out 7 X $11M contracts)

They can, if they are smart.

 

[zeke]

Reality. That's rich for you. And the other socks you keep in your drawer.

 

[justashadowof]

They can, if they are smart.

So not in Toronto then.

 

[4thline]

Wow.......the belief that Dubas took over an unenviable situation seems to me to indicate some alternate reality is coming into play.

It was certainly an enviable situation long term.
But it was also no where near the short term gravy train with an inevitable easy path upward that many ignorantly portray it as.

 

[ToneDog]

I presume this is Steve Simmons not Wayne Simmonds. Gotta say I'm torn that Steve Simmons is using one of my talking points. Did he actually bring this up to Shanahan? That's pure gold if he did.

Sorry it was Steve Simmons. Simmons starts asking questions starting at 9:35 and raises the issue around 11:00.

(189) Brendan Shanahan Will Address Maple Leafs Lack Of A Killer Instinct - YouTube.

 

[zeke]

So not in Toronto then.

They can and they did.

 

[ottomaddox]

You're just being dismissive now. Simmons did make a good point. I also think that it was refreshing that Simmons didn't let Shanny off the hook. Shanny presented (once again) more sports cliches as to why they came up short and Simmons had the stones to say "it's not working with this group" (paraphrasing).

 

[justashadowof]

Sorry it was Steve Simmons and Shanny's. Simmons starts asking questions starting at 9:35 and raises the issue around 11:00.

(189) Brendan Shanahan Will Address Maple Leafs Lack Of A Killer Instinct - YouTube.

Cheers. The moment Shanahan's brain breaks when called on his BS: