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Has Dubas failed at his job?

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Has Dubas failed at his job

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It's the 4X400m relay and you've been handed the baton with a 10m lead. If you don't win, you've failed. If you don't finish 2nd you've failed even worse. If it was a qualifying heat and you didn't qualify for the final 8, you've really failed.
 
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Trapper said:
A purely data approach is as bad as a purely emotional approach.

Eventually, what you see repeatedly, is what you get.
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I agree with the first part whole heartedly. Data and feel have to work harmoniously IMO.

But I do think bad patterns can be changed. Especially when you are talking about patterns based on human interaction. It's not like we are mixing Blue and Red together over and over again until we get green. We are talking about elite level talents, playing to their current abilities when it matters the most. That has to be possible
 
Twine Tickler said:
We can can only rationalize what has a logical rationale

If we remove Dubas from the equation these last 3 years, does Mitch and Auston play better in the playoffs? I'm not sure that those 2 things are directly tied to one another, but in a round about way they could I guess.

we already removed the big bad coach they didn't like. The results remain the same. We need to shift the focus on the core. Specifically Mitch and Auston. Can they get it done? I think it's very clear and obvious that they have more than enough talent to do so. But can they get over this mental hurdle they have created for themselves? There is logic and reason for both sides of that argument. Although logically it does seem less likely each passing year.

Dubas has sided with the "yes" crowd. This is the boldest stance he has taken as a GM, as that goes against all of the historical data that suggests the contrary. If they do not succeed to a tangible degree, he will lose his job. Period. That is a risk he is willing to take. It is one of if not the first decision that he has made that exercises emotion or gut feeling rather than analysis and data. There is absolutely no data to support the logic of them breaking through this coming year that wasn't already there in years past. Regular season statistics hold very little weight in that argument. He is banking on the maturation of young men. I don't think that is a terrible thing to do at this point. These guys are stupid talented, and we haven't even likely seen their best yet. Emotion's aside, who gives up on a Mitch Marner level talent at 24 years old? the guy has had 3 years that produced at paces in the mid to high 90's for pts over an 82 game season. I think we can give it a year or 2 more before we write a player like him off no?

I get frustrated with this core group as well. They are extremely unlikeable a lot of the time. But they are arguably the most talented core group that's ever dressed for the blue and white. We owe it to ourselves as a starved fanbase to see this completely through
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The question here on this board is has Dubas failed? If I posed the question when he was hired “if in three years he hasn’t taken the team out of the first round, is that a failure?” you’re lying if you would have said NO. Everything else is noise.
 
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zeke said:
This is entirely backwards. All the data suggests they will eventually produce in the playoffs, as they always produce. Only emotion suggests otherwise.
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All history suggests when a team qualifies but can't win a single playoff series for 5 consecutive seasons it's destined for decline not improvement. I know that's a bitter jagged pill to swallow. And of course it should go without saying that I hope to be very wrong about this.
 
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justashadowof said:
All history suggests when a team qualifies but can't win a single playoff series for 5 consecutive seasons it's destined for decline not improvement.
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That's not true tho. Many teams have had years of playoffs failures before winning.

In fact, most recent cup winners are a testament to sticking with a core that's failed many times before.
 
zeke said:
That's not true tho. Many teams have had years of playoffs failures before winning.

In fact, most recent cup winners are a testament to sticking with a core that's failed many times before.
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Not one of them couldn't close the deal on a single series for 5 consecutive seasons. This isn't the precipice of a dynasty, this is the precipice of a major re-tooling.
 
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DarkKnight said:
The question here on this board is has Dubas failed? If I posed the question when he was hired “if in three years he hasn’t taken the team out of the first round, is that a failure?” you’re lying if you would have said NO. Everything else is noise.
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Yes absolutely. If only armed with that info 3 years ago, I would agree with you.

Fortunately for us we have other information that sort of suggests it might not actually be entirely his fault for the lack of success. And in fact he has given this team every chance to succeed, and the results were not there.

I would say the organization as a whole has failed. Kyle being part of this organization. And when we dive deeper as to why this team has failed, I think his contribution to that failure is not as great as the players themselves. Who consistently perform to a high level, just not when it matters the most.

I guess to me assigning failure to a work in progress is just not something I am willing to do. Just like I wouldn't call Mitch and Auston a failure because they haven't succeeded in the post season yet. If/when Kyles day comes, and there is still no result I think you can fairly look at it then. But I am still not sure I'd say he failed then. Unless something drastically changes.

Same with Babs, I am not sure he failed us either. He provided a much needed shot of respectability to our joke of a franchise. Results were there, then they weren't and he is considered a failure. Not sure I agree. He failed to bring the cup to TOR, but he didn't fail in changing the culture, developing Naz, Mitch and a whole host of other players.

I'll reserve the out right failures for the JFJ's of the world
 
justashadowof said:
It's the 4X400m relay and you've been handed the baton with a 10m lead. If you don't win, you've failed. If you don't finish 2nd you've failed even worse. If it was a qualifying heat and you didn't qualify for the final 8, you've really failed.
Click to expand...
That’s the thing as well, when he came in he inherited one of the enviable situations imaginable for a rookie GM.
 
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Twine Tickler said:
Yes absolutely. If only armed with that info 3 years ago, I would agree with you.

Fortunately for us we have other information that sort of suggests it might not actually be entirely his fault for the lack of success. And in fact he has given this team every chance to succeed, and the results were not there.

I would say the organization as a whole has failed. Kyle being part of this organization. And when we dive deeper as to why this team has failed, I think his contribution to that failure is not as great as the players themselves. Who consistently perform to a high level, just not when it matters the most.

I guess to me assigning failure to a work in progress is just not something I am willing to do. Just like I wouldn't call Mitch and Auston a failure because they haven't succeeded in the post season yet. If/when Kyles day comes, and there is still no result I think you can fairly look at it then. But I am still not sure I'd say he failed then. Unless something drastically changes.

Same with Babs, I am not sure he failed us either. He provided a much needed shot of respectability to our joke of a franchise. Results were there, then they weren't and he is considered a failure. Not sure I agree. He failed to bring the cup to TOR, but he didn't fail in changing the culture, developing Naz, Mitch and a whole host of other players.

I'll reserve the out right failures for the JFJ's of the world
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I’ve never said it’s entirely his fault, actually what I’ve said is you can’t compartmentalize and throw scorn around, while simulateously absolving the GM. The soldiers blew it, the sergeant made mistakes, there was some bad weather, but the general did his job. Doesn’t work that way, which is why it should be 100 percent he failed, if you want to say “to date” that’s another discussion but to actually vote NO is absurd, they’ve all failed.
 
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4thline said:
Would you be willing to bet serious money that M&M are career long playoff duds?
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Never though Thornton and Marleau wouldn’t win. I wouldn’t have bet against it but there it is.
Same with the Legion of Doom. Kindred/Leclair, who would have thought the Big E wouldn’t win?

Again, the point is they might not win just because you wish it. Ray Bourque had to leave, so did other players. No guarantee because your numbers say so.
 
Trapper said:
Never though Thornton and Marleau wouldn’t win. I wouldn’t have bet against it but there it is.
Same with the Legion of Doom. Kindred/Leclair, who would have thought the Big E wouldn’t win?

Again, the point is they might not win just because you wish it.
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It's not whether they win or not, nothing is every guaranteed.
Would be be willing to bet that they never rise up to deliver personal performances worthy of leading a team to a win/ their reg season expectations?
 
4thline said:
It's not whether they win or not, nothing is every guaranteed.
Would be be willing to bet that they never rise up to deliver personal performances worthy of leading a team to a win/ their reg season expectations?
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At some point yes. If they keep failing, something needs to change. Not all, but something more than a 4th line Simmonds or cheap Spezza.
 
justashadowof said:
Not one of them couldn't close the deal on a single series for 5 consecutive seasons. This isn't the precipice of a dynasty, this is the precipice of a major re-tooling.
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I guess you can create that arbitrary data point and ignore quality of play and opponent, but that's not data based either.

The majority of recent cup teams have failed often, and badly - and pretty sure all of them have had worse failures than any one of the leafs' so far.
 
zeke said:
That's not true tho. Many teams have had years of playoffs failures before winning.

In fact, most recent cup winners are a testament to sticking with a core that's failed many times before.
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According to Simmonds, no team with 5 consecutive 1st round loses has gone on to win the SC. When informed Shanny stumbled over his words and pretty much said there will always be a first.
 
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zeke said:
Inheriting zero impact ELC talent whatsoever is anything but enviable.
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Not many GMs inherit Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Rielly, Andersen and a strong supporting cast. That should be more than enough to offset the lack of inherited ELC contracts. No ??
 
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ToneDog said:
According to Simmonds, no team with 5 consecutive 1st round loses has gone on to win the SC. When informed Shanny stumbled over his words and pretty much said there will always be a first.
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Though that's a fairly meaningless statistic.

The teams roster 5 seasons ago was incredibly different from the one being iced on opening night this season
 
It's not so much the fact that TOR lost to MTL, it was the way they lost. MTL asked them to roll over and they did in the last 2 games.
 
Trapper said:
A purely data approach is as bad as a purely emotional approach.

Eventually, what you see repeatedly, is what you get.
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
Click to expand...
Who said that…….Mr Spock?
 
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