Has Dubas failed at his job?

[Gary Nylund]

There is a lot to unpack here Gary, I'll try and tackle it in chronological order.

-Rentals this year were preferable this year only because of expansion/protection. His previous 2 deadlines suggest his beliefs on rentals are the same as yours. This year was the anomaly, understandably so.

Disagree. Not trading futures for rentals would have been preferable, and would have been consistent with what Dubas has said previously.

Pointing out your typo was tongue-in-cheek BTW, I meant no offence.

-Lastly, Yes you did say "make sure the goaltending situation is good, if we don't have that then everything else is pointless." which is why I included it in there for context. But you also accompanied it with "I like our team as it is" and "we should do everything we possibly can to fix it even to the point of overpaying to a certain extent". Now I've made the mistake of speaking on behalf of all Leaf fans before, so I will try to steer clear of putting words in your mouth. But, to me, those words suggest you liked the team heading into the deadline, and were prepared to over pay to fix a deficiency. Not all that far off of KD's philosophy really. Except your deficiency that you noted was Goaltending, which actually ended up not needing any fixing at all. KD's identified deficiency in which he overpaid for was a top 6 LW. Which we really could have used, had Foligno not been injured the majority of the time as a Leaf.

I guess you could look at it that way - goaltending didn't need any fixing. Debatable though, I mean Campbell played well but was it really a big enough sample size to be so confident he would carry the load, that it was worth the risk of spending all those futures? The guy had never even been a starter before, he'd never even played in a playoff game before for crissakes, how realistic was it really to gamble on this team, who had yet to show they could even win one playoff series, going all the way? Not realistic at all IMO which is why I would rather have stood pat. Yes I did like our team, they had played very well during the season but still, we didn't play one top 10 team all year and still didn't crack the top 5, even if I thought we should cruise to the final 4, but going any farther than that seemed like it was going to be an uphill battle as it seemed to me that we would be dogs from the 3rd round onward.

If he had traded futures to acquire a #1 goalie, not a rental but someone who would be our guy for the next few years, that's what I was referring to, but that is not what he did.

 

[Twine Tickler]

You guys can rationalize everything away.

We can can only rationalize what has a logical rationale

If we remove Dubas from the equation these last 3 years, does Mitch and Auston play better in the playoffs? I'm not sure that those 2 things are directly tied to one another, but in a round about way they could I guess.

we already removed the big bad coach they didn't like. The results remain the same. We need to shift the focus on the core. Specifically Mitch and Auston. Can they get it done? I think it's very clear and obvious that they have more than enough talent to do so. But can they get over this mental hurdle they have created for themselves? There is logic and reason for both sides of that argument. Although logically it does seem less likely each passing year.

Dubas has sided with the "yes" crowd. This is the boldest stance he has taken as a GM, as that goes against all of the historical data that suggests the contrary. If they do not succeed to a tangible degree, he will lose his job. Period. That is a risk he is willing to take. It is one of if not the first decision that he has made that exercises emotion or gut feeling rather than analysis and data. There is absolutely no data to support the logic of them breaking through this coming year that wasn't already there in years past. Regular season statistics hold very little weight in that argument. He is banking on the maturation of young men. I don't think that is a terrible thing to do at this point. These guys are stupid talented, and we haven't even likely seen their best yet. Emotion's aside, who gives up on a Mitch Marner level talent at 24 years old? the guy has had 3 years that produced at paces in the mid to high 90's for pts over an 82 game season. I think we can give it a year or 2 more before we write a player like him off no?

I get frustrated with this core group as well. They are extremely unlikeable a lot of the time. But they are arguably the most talented core group that's ever dressed for the blue and white. We owe it to ourselves as a starved fanbase to see this completely through

 

[zeke]

Dubas has sided with the "yes" crowd. This is the boldest stance he has taken as a GM, as that goes against all of the historical data that suggests the contrary. If they do not succeed to a tangible degree, he will lose his job. Period. That is a risk he is willing to take. It is one of if not the first decision that he has made that exercises emotion or gut feeling rather than analysis and data. There is absolutely no data to support the logic of them breaking through this coming year that wasn't already there in years past. Regular season statistics hold very little weight in that argument.

This is entirely backwards. All the data suggests they will eventually produce in the playoffs, as they always produce. Only emotion suggests otherwise.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Dubas has actually improved the quality of the team - unfortunately his starting goalie steadily faceplanted year by year.

Newsflash - the goalie is part of the team.

Actually it's not a newsflash, you've been told this many times. Not sure why you're having trouble with this but it's a simple fact.

This is entirely backwards. All the data suggests they will eventually produce in the playoffs, as they always produce. Only emotion suggests otherwise.

You've been saying that before the playoffs start for how many years now?

 

[Twine Tickler]

if he had traded futures to acquire a #1 goalie, not a rental but someone who would be our guy for the next few years, that's what I was referring to, but that is not what he did.

If he would have traded futures for a #1 goalie that was under contract beyond this year, we would have more than likely lost Jack in expansion. Which would have been an "additional cost" to what it took to acquire this #1. We'd lose a valuable asset in Jack because we could only protect 1 goalie. That plays a big factor.

again, any player under contract beyond this year that we acquired at the deadline would have had to have taken a spot on our protection list, or be exposed to Seattle.

A name I suggested we look into was Miles Wood. He was under contract until the end of the 2022-23 season, ie. not a traditional rental. Say we paid the same haul for him as we did Nick Foligno, for arguments sake, which was a 1st and 2x 4th rounders. But since we went 4 forwards + 4 Defense in our protection, we could not logically protect him over the core 4 from expansion and he almost certainly would have been selected by Seattle. which essentially made him a rental. on the other hand, say his arrival meant we opted to go 7F + 3D protection. Then we lose Holl. So in theory, the cost of acquiring a non-rental version of Miles wood would have been 1st + 2x 4ths + Holl. Pretty heavy

With respect to your wish to upgrade in net, it would have cost whatever it took to acquire said #1 + Campbell. There is really no other way to look at it.

pretty well every deadline acquisition this year was a rental for that reason alone. Because there was the additional cost to retain them. In fact, the only thing that was smart was acquiring pending UFA's because you wouldn't have to protect them, and still sign them later if you wanted to. These players are traditional rentals. It was a backwards logic, for this year only, and KD acted accordingly.

 

[Twine Tickler]

This is entirely backwards. All the data suggests they will eventually produce in the playoffs, as they always produce. Only emotion suggests otherwise.

I am talking about their abilities to overcome the mental hurdle of winning a round. The data suggests they are 0/5, the heart suggests they can mature past this.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Dubas has actually improved the quality of the team - unfortunately his starting goalie steadily faceplanted year by year.

The goalie happens to be a pretty important part of the team.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

This is entirely backwards. All the data suggests they will eventually produce in the playoffs, as they always produce. Only emotion suggests otherwise.

What does data have to do with Marner throwing the puck over the glass and to stop throwing the puck in the corner every time there is pressure? Marner has been a complete choke artist the last few playoff rounds. He only has 8 pts in his last 12 playoffs games and 1 Goal in the last 18. That is not good enough for a top 10 talent and a guy getting 11M. Until he starts showing some heart and some balls come playoff time he is going to keep having underwhelming numbers.

Matthews i know was being shadowed by one of the best defensive players in the league but Matthews is also a top 5 player in the league and needs to start showing that he has that extra gear and put up points. Other Superstars are able to.

 

[Racer88]

Dubas has actually improved the quality of the team - unfortunately his starting goalie steadily faceplanted year by year.

However his starting goalie did not play in this years playoffs and by in large Campbell wasn’t to bad in this years playoffs. I think he gave them a chance to win a chance they squandered in epic fashion

 

[Twine Tickler]

What does data have to do with Marner throwing the puck over the glass and to stop throwing the puck in the corner every time there is pressure? Marner has been a complete choke artist the last few playoff rounds. He only has 8 pts in his last 12 playoffs games and 1 Goal in the last 18. That is not good enough for a top 10 talent and a guy getting 11M. Until he starts showing some heart and some balls come playoff time he is going to keep having underwhelming numbers.

Matthews i know was being shadowed by one of the best defensive players in the league but Matthews is also a top 5 player in the league and needs to start showing that he has that extra gear and put up points. Other Superstars are able to.

yup, these 2 need to step up. Until they do, we will go nowhere.

If Phil Kessel can get 4G and 6Pts in 7GP with Prime Chara all over him there is absolutely no excuse for these 2 IMO.

Hard work beats skill when skill doesn't work hard. Plain and simple.

I still have faith in them. They are just way to good to be suppressed for their entire careers. I will never count out the athletes will to win. Far too often we as fans mislabel these guys as not wanting to win. We are almost consistently proven wrong when they eventually do. I have no problem running it back a couple more years, par for the course at this point

 

[ottomaddox]

This is entirely backwards. All the data suggests they will eventually produce in the playoffs, as they always produce. Only emotion suggests otherwise.

The data doesn't mention how many coaches and GMs TOR needs to go through before it eventually happens.

 

[Racer88]

yup, these 2 need to step up. Until they do, we will go nowhere.

If Phil Kessel can get 4G and 6Pts in 7GP with Prime Chara all over him there is absolutely no excuse for these 2 IMO.

Hard work beats skill when skill doesn't work hard. Plain and simple.

I still have faith in them. They are just way to good to be suppressed for their entire careers. I will never count out the athletes will to win. Far too often we as fans mislabel these guys as not wanting to win. We are almost consistently proven wrong when they eventually do. I have no problem running it back a couple more years, par for the course at this point

I’m sure they want to win but I’m not sure they are prepared to sacrifice what it takes to win

 

[notbias]

What does data have to do with Marner throwing the puck over the glass and to stop throwing the puck in the corner every time there is pressure? Marner has been a complete choke artist the last few playoff rounds. He only has 8 pts in his last 12 playoffs games and 1 Goal in the last 18. That is not good enough for a top 10 talent and a guy getting 11M. Until he starts showing some heart and some balls come playoff time he is going to keep having underwhelming numbers.

Matthews i know was being shadowed by one of the best defensive players in the league but Matthews is also a top 5 player in the league and needs to start showing that he has that extra gear and put up points. Other Superstars are able to.

You get statistic anomalies when looking at small sample sizes, that is what is suggested unless you think Matthews is going to shoot at 2.9% each playoff.

I don't know when the sample size becomes large enough to start getting worried, but I'd say for most logical people it isn't 12 games.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

yup, these 2 need to step up. Until they do, we will go nowhere.

If Phil Kessel can get 4G and 6Pts in 7GP with Prime Chara all over him there is absolutely no excuse for these 2 IMO.

Hard work beats skill when skill doesn't work hard. Plain and simple.

I still have faith in them. They are just way to good to be suppressed for their entire careers. I will never count out the athletes will to win. Far to often we as fans mislabel these guys as not wanting to win. We are almost consistently proven wrong when they eventually do. I have no problem running it back a couple more years, par for the course at this point

It's not like Marner wasn't skating or trying. He clearly was, and at times it looked like he was working too hard and it ended up causing him to make a series of stupid, rookie mistakes that he should not be making in his 5th playoff series. It wasn't even like he was pressured most of the time. That puck over glass penalty he took in Game 6 was a deliberate action to try and spring Hyman, and yet he totally botched it like an idiot. He was just trying to be too smart and ended up being the exact opposite pretty much every time.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I’m sure they want to win but I’m not sure they are prepared to sacrifice what it takes to win

The same would have been said for Ovi years 20-30

Think he found what it took eventually.

 

[Twine Tickler]

It's not like Marner wasn't skating or trying. He clearly was, and at times it looked like he was working too hard and it ended up causing him to make a series of stupid, rookie mistakes that he should not be making in his 5th playoff series. It wasn't even like he was pressured most of the time. That puck over glass penalty he took in Game 6 was a deliberate action to try and spring Hyman, and yet he totally botched it like an idiot. He was just trying to be too smart and ended up being the exact opposite pretty much every time.

I agree, it was not about lack of effort. But the playoffs takes a level of simplicity that he needs to figure out how to adapt to. I am fairly confident it will come eventually. Hardly ever does a player of his caliber get skunked consistently throughout their career. It may never result in a cup, but he will produce at some point. Hopefully he is still a Leaf at that point

 

[Racer88]

You get statistic anomalies when looking at small sample sizes, that is what is suggested unless you think Matthews is going to shoot at 2.9% each playoff.

I don't know when the sample size becomes large enough to start getting worried, but I'd say for most logical people it isn't 12 games.

That may be true but when you only play 4 playoff games per year it’s going to be a lot of years before the sample size gets a lot bigger

 

[Racer88]

The same would have been said for Ovi years 20-30

Think he found what it took eventually.

True

 

[zeke]

Newsflash - the goalie is part of the team.

Actually it's not a newsflash, you've been told this many times. Not sure why you're having trouble with this but it's a simple fact.

I guess you could blame Dubas for the guy you called an elite vezina contender starting goalie imploding.

You've been saying that before the playoffs start for how many years now?

For all of 32 playoffs games now.

 

[zeke]

However his starting goalie did not play in this years playoffs and by in large Campbell wasn’t to bad in this years playoffs. I think he gave them a chance to win a chance they squandered in epic fashion

Agreed. Though I believe at that point in this discussion we were talking about regular season performance.

 

[zeke]

I am talking about their abilities to overcome the mental hurdle of winning a round. The data suggests they are 0/5, the heart suggests they can mature past this.

Talking about a "mental hurdle" isn't data. Their playoffs performance is a small 32gm sample with good underlying numbers. Data says they should produce eventually.

 

[zeke]

The goalie happens to be a pretty important part of the team.

Certainly is. That's why it sucks that Freddy crumbled so badly.

 

[Trapper]

Newsflash - the goalie is part of the team.

Actually it's not a newsflash, you've been told this many times. Not sure why you're having trouble with this but it's a simple fact.



You've been saying that before the playoffs start for how many years now?

A purely data approach is as bad as a purely emotional approach.

Eventually, what you see repeatedly, is what you get.
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

 

[4thline]

Eventually, what you see repeatedly, is what you get.
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

Would you be willing to bet serious money that M&M are career long playoff duds?

 

[Twine Tickler]

Talking about a "mental hurdle" isn't data. Their playoffs performance is a small 32gm sample with good underlying numbers. Data says they should produce eventually.

You're not wrong.

With the data that is there for the 32 games that they have played they deserved better results. Unfortunately the playoffs are where analytics and intangibles marry in a more balanced fashion. As much as strong underlying numbers is a good indicator of likelihood of success, no one has the ability to track a guy diving face first into a puck at the goal line to stop one from going in. In fact that play would be marked down as a HDCF, and a SCF going the opposite way. Those little extra sacrifices in the game that players don't make in the regular season, happens with 2 to 3 times the regularity in the post season. Some of which would never impact the underlying metrics.

I have always balanced underlying data with what I see with my eyes. And more often than not just use the data to reinforce what I see, if it tells the same story that is.

I've seen MM and AM struggle to gain space in the playoffs. I've seen both of them struggle to simplify their games. I am sure they still widely controlled the CF% against Phillip Danault regardless. Guy had 24 pts on the year, even Micheyev could out chance that level of production.