Has Dubas failed at his job?

[ACC1224]

Didn't Lou bring in Andersen? Been a long summer but has Dubas brought in even one starter let alone two? I know he's brought in many backups.

 

[zeke]

Tavares was the domino that started this unbalanced team.
I like Muzzin and Brodie but do you really think either of those goalies are starting goalies up a cup contender?

Name me the starting goalies on cup contenders.

 

[zeke]

Didn't Lou bring in Andersen?

Sure did. There's 1 ok core piece Lou added in all his time here.

 

[zeke]

You can’t answer a question with a question

Let me help you out.

Vasilevskiy
Kuemper
Ullmark
Lehner
Andersen
Jarry

 

[egd27]

You believe that Rielly taking a discount is down to some Dubas' negotiating wizardry or is it something else?

Well I think most of us know that certain posters will be telling us exactly that.

 

[Racer88]

Let me help you out.

Vasilevskiy
Kuemper
Ullmark
Lehner
Andersen
Jarry

Thanks you saved me a bunch of work. Lol
Now help me out understanding if you think either of our 2 goalies are cup contender caliber

 

[Racer88]

Let me help you out.

Vasilevskiy
Kuemper
Ullmark
Lehner
Andersen
Jarry

I might add Price to that list

 

[zeke]

I might add Price to that list

If you think the Habs are a contender then yes you could add the injured 35yr old price to the list.

 

[Trapper]

I guess technically no GM has failed until he is removed from his position.

That being said, the guys he bet his career on sure aren’t doing him any favours.
And the cap allocation of the players might be the iceberg that answers the question sooner than later.

 

[Bomber0104]

Imagine thinking - after not winning one single playoff round with a roster of Matthews/Marner/Tavares/et al. for three consecutive years - that anyone here has "under-estimated" the Leafs

 

[capfit9]

He'll be done before end of Jan.2022 and Gilman will take over for the rest of the season

 

[Zybalto]

Most NHL regular season points since the start of the 2017 season:

Points:

1. Tampa - 408
2. Boston - 392
3. Caps - 376
4. Vegas - 370
5. Toronto - 363
5. Pens - 363
7. Nashville -359
7. Avs - 359
9. Jets- 356
10. Blues - 350

While its bizarre they havnt won a playoff round in max series losses every year (which we can talk about), it shouldnt be disputed that the Leafs have been one of the elite teams in the league with the youngest core of almost any team on the list.

Dubas has maintained the quality of the team so maybe this year is gonna be the year to go on a run?

 

[Racer88]

Most NHL regular season points since the start of the 2017 season:

Points:

1. Tampa - 408
2. Boston - 392
3. Caps - 376
4. Vegas - 370
5. Toronto - 363
5. Pens - 363
7. Nashville -359
7. Avs - 359
9. Jets- 356
10. Blues - 350

While its bizarre they havnt won a playoff round in max series losses every year (which we can talk about), it shouldnt be disputed that the Leafs have been one of the elite teams in the league with the youngest core of almost any team on the list.

Dubas has maintained the quality of the team so maybe this year is gonna be the year to go on a run?

I think this just proves that these guys are talented and play well when there is less pressure but fold when the pressure is turned up

 

[meefer]

Dubas stuck to the game plan of Matthews, Marner and Nylander. He added Tavares, Muzzin and Brodie as principle upgrades. Rielly was here. The other additions Dubas is responsible for have had middling to not impressive results, but cannot be blamed for the lack of success we’ve seen. And, Campbell is a Dubas acquisition as well. 4 forwards which any team in the league would like to have. 3 defensemen who would receive the same interest, and a goalie who performed better than our incumbent. The core of this team is as solid as you’ll find in the league. Until the playoffs. Injuries have hurt, but it’s the performances of our best players which has hurt more. Dubas helped build a team that should have gone deep. That they didn’t is on the players and the coaches. Not Dubas.

 

[DarkKnight]

And to simply say our big players choked is fine, but it just feeds the narrative perhaps you shouldn’t pay people like 2 time champs before they’ve won anything. I mean their failure, at those dollars, is his failure, obviously.

 

[Trapper]

And to simply say our big players choked is fine, but it just feeds the error perhaps you shouldn’t pay people like 2 time champs before they’ve won anything. I mean their failure, at those dollars, is his failure, obviously.

Also not every group is cut out to lead.
Add Marner to a player like Bergeron and you have a different leading dynamic.

Add a different core forward to Matthews and same thing.
Individual talent is not the issue. It’s the sum of the parts, the percentage of cap taken vs. quality support.

 

[DarkKnight]

Also not every group is cut out to lead.
Add Marner to a player like Bergeron and you have a different leading dynamic.

Add a different core forward to Matthews and same thing.
Individual talent is not the issue. It’s the sum of the parts, the percentage of cap taken vs. quality support.

Agreed.

 

[Dangles McGavin]

I like Dubas for the most part. I think he's made good trades, and signed some good contracts. His free agent signings have been quite strong.

But we haven't won a single playoff round. Of course he's failed. It's not exclusively on him, of course, but his job is to win.

 

[Zybalto]

I think this just proves that these guys are talented and play well when there is less pressure but fold when the pressure is turned up

On the surface that would be a logical thing to assume I guess but even within those contained playoff series, the Leafs have made several comebacks (including the greatest Leaf comeback in decades against Columbus) and have greatly carried the play in almost every playoff series. Greatly outshooting and outplaying the competition doesnt scream "folding under the pressure" either to me.

The first big problem is that no other team has lost key players in the way Toronto has in the first round. Last year Tavares was one of the hottest players in hockey coming into the playoffs and got knocked out early in the first game of the series to keep up the tradition of losing key players. Again, no other team in the NHL has had this handicap.

The second, and the more glaring, is that the Leafs have faced the best goaltending of any team in the first round the last three years in what can only be described as a bizarre coincidence. The best goalie of the playoffs last year was Carey Price, basically returning to half-decade ago form out of nowhere and not just against the Leafs. The year before it was Columbus vaunted D getting run over but their goaltending carrying the load making game saving saves while our far less busy goaltenders were letting in savable game winners. Korpisalo proved it was no fluke by carrying the entire team the next round till his back finally broke but not without setting the playoff save record. The year before that it was Rask turning his career around after an inconsistent couple of seasons and being the keeper of the playoffs en route to a cup finals. Three years in a row and up against arguably the three best goalies of their particular playoffs in the first round.

To simplify things, the Leafs goalies have been second best in every series, even if they played well....and when confined to a small sample size of a playoff series, that spells disaster for advancing.....and yet they almost did every time. There are still obviously some individual errors out there but not too many really from the core but this is where I will agree with some criticism of the core. They have proved to be elite so they should be able to overcome these challenges right?

Looking at the Habs series and here is how the Matthews/Marner combo performed 5v5:

xGF%: 68.10
GF%: 73.41

...which leads to still the biggest issue not being talked about....the fact it has been the support players who have failed us the most. Why did Perry/Armia/Stall combine for 12 points in the series last year while the Habs top Gallagher/Danault/Tatar line got dominated so bad (combined for 3 points the entire series) they had to be split up and why are folks picking on the core?

If the support/bottom pairing lines had played as well as the top lines/top pairings, the Leafs win the series and pretty easily, no matter how good the opposing goalies are playing.

When Vegas had to go up against the Habs in the semi's, their top line got legitimately stonewalled with one of my favorite players Mark Stone (11th in points this year and one of the best two way players in the league) getting absolutely dominated and ended up finishing the series with 0 points. That was a case of a core choking and being at fault for a series loss combined with going up against elite goaltending. The Habs/Leafs series, not so much.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I think everyone expects that if the team does not at least win a round this year, there will probably be major changes in the front office.

Ya absolutely. Like I have said many times before. This is the first season where there was legitimately a logical opportunity to shift gears away from this core. There is a very valid argument to be had for that. KD is doubling down on a squad that has failed to break through consistently. If there is once again a failure, there is no doubt in my mind there will be a complete overhaul to the front office and coaching staff. I think that is completely fair, and I think KD and Shanny know that as well. So it should speak volumes that they didn't handcuff our team with a Hyman/Coleman type deal to improve their likelihood of keeping their job past this year. They are still very much thinking with a future focused timeline, even though they are well aware that they may not even make it to the end of this season.

Look at Holland and Benning this year. Hanging on for dear life. Taking on stupid contracts just to say they improved their squads. Meanwhile the likelihood of those panning out long term are very low.

Not sure where this is coming from, Doobler burns through 1st round picks faster than Evander Kane burns through his moneyphones. Remember the Foligno debacle?

Kyle has been our GM since May of 2018. He has had his hands in on 4 drafts as the GM. in that time he has made 30 selections. Which is 2 more than the allotted 7 per draft which would total 28. To give you some context, Boston has only made 21, Washington has made 22, and NYI has made 24 selections in that same time period. He has also made Euro signings like Micheyev, Barabanov, Lehtonen, Kallgren, Semyenov in addition to NCAA signings Steeves and Petruzelli and then CHL prospect Gogelev. I am sure I am missing others as well. The cupboard is comfortably stocked. Especially given the fact that we have been a competitive team throughout his tenure.

so lets review the 1st round selections he has traded:

2019: Got Muzzin in return. Seems to be working out
2020: Traded to offload Marleau's 3rd year without retention. We were in a bind, partly on his doing, but also because of Lou's lack of foresight. That unfortunately was the price
2021: for Foligno. It was a swing and a miss, but it was a chance worth taking. We unfortunately lost on that deal. Them's the breaks.

He has spent draft capital because we have acquired the pool to make some of these picks expendable. Also, the picks we have made late in the draft are largely tracking above where they were selected. Which further made some of the draft capital expendable.

I am sure the next point someone will raise is "well where are all these guys in our lineup"...seems to be a popular thought.

Lets look at TB in that same time period for some context. From 2018 draft to 2022 draft they have made an Identical amount of selections (30). Their entire selection pool has combined for 6 NHL games played. And those 6 GP were played by Nolan Foote, who played those games for NJ......Nobody they have selected in that 4 year span is tracking to make their lineup, whereas we have 2 players that will likely crack ours next season either in a full time capacity or part time (Sandin, Robertson). Hell, Kral might get in a game or 2.

I think we can all agree there have been some moves we'd like to have back. That is going to happen unfortunately. But the simple fact of the matter is, this entire board was on favor to go for it this year. You cannot add, without subtracting. When you come up short like we did, all the additions unfortunately become worthless. Cost of doing business in the NHL.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Dubas stuck to the game plan of Matthews, Marner and Nylander. He added Tavares, Muzzin and Brodie as principle upgrades. Rielly was here. The other additions Dubas is responsible for have had middling to not impressive results, but cannot be blamed for the lack of success we’ve seen. And, Campbell is a Dubas acquisition as well. 4 forwards which any team in the league would like to have. 3 defensemen who would receive the same interest, and a goalie who performed better than our incumbent. The core of this team is as solid as you’ll find in the league. Until the playoffs. Injuries have hurt, but it’s the performances of our best players which has hurt more. Dubas helped build a team that should have gone deep. That they didn’t is on the players and the coaches. Not Dubas.

Amen brother

Everyone is looking for a scape goat, the nerd with the glasses just seems like the obvious choice.

 

[Twine Tickler]

And to simply say our big players choked is fine, but it just feeds the narrative perhaps you shouldn’t pay people like 2 time champs before they’ve won anything. I mean their failure, at those dollars, is his failure, obviously.

They fail in the same capacity if they make 2 million less each BTW...

And we were not a 4 million dollar player away from making them play better either.

We go as far as Mitch and Auston take us. Until they learn to take over in the playoffs to the same capacity that they do in the regular season, we will go nowhere.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Like I said, Dubas said he doesn't believe in rentals, then he went out and got a bunch of rentals. Seems like a really dumb move to me but hey, that's just my opinion. I've said it many times, rentals are bad in general and the only time it makes sense is when your cup window is closing is if you think there's a really good chance that the rentals will put you over the top. That's why I was happy to hear that Dubas doesn't believe in rentals, and I'm unhappy that his actions have shown his words to be worthless.



Sound like you're speaking on behalf of all Leaf fans, you should know better than that. I dunno what a "pyush" is but I think we need to at the very least, show that we can win one round before we talk about being a serious threat to go all the way.



Having trouble quoting you so that the words actually show up but whatever. Yes, I said make sure the goaltending situation is good, if we don't have that then everything else is pointless.

Not sure if picking up Rittich qualifies, well OK, I don't think it does.

There is a lot to unpack here Gary, I'll try and tackle it in chronological order.

-Rentals this year were preferable this year only because of expansion/protection. His previous 2 deadlines suggest his beliefs on rentals are the same as yours. This year was the anomaly, understandably so.

-I am not trying to speak on behalf of all Leaf fans. I should have said "the vast majority on here thought". We are kind of arguing semantics on that one, but nevertheless I should have worded it differently. I am sure I can provide some context to that if you need it. Whether it is referencing a poll that was taken, or just general posts of positive outlook's. I've seen you on here before, I know you read this forum frequently, I don't think I need to do that. I think vast majority is appropriate.

-Pyush is push, simple typo

-Lastly, Yes you did say "make sure the goaltending situation is good, if we don't have that then everything else is pointless." which is why I included it in there for context. But you also accompanied it with "I like our team as it is" and "we should do everything we possibly can to fix it even to the point of overpaying to a certain extent". Now I've made the mistake of speaking on behalf of all Leaf fans before, so I will try to steer clear of putting words in your mouth. But, to me, those words suggest you liked the team heading into the deadline, and were prepared to over pay to fix a deficiency. Not all that far off of KD's philosophy really. Except your deficiency that you noted was Goaltending, which actually ended up not needing any fixing at all. KD's identified deficiency in which he overpaid for was a top 6 LW. Which we really could have used, had Foligno not been injured the majority of the time as a Leaf.

 

[DarkKnight]

They fail in the same capacity if they make 2 million less each BTW...

And we were not a 4 million dollar player away from making them play better either.

We go as far as Mitch and Auston take us. Until they learn to take over in the playoffs to the same capacity that they do in the regular season, we will go nowhere.

You guys can rationalize everything away.

 

[zeke]

Dubas has maintained the quality of the team so maybe this year is gonna be the year to go on a run?

Dubas has actually improved the quality of the team - unfortunately his starting goalie steadily faceplanted year by year.