Has Dubas failed at his job?

[Trapper]

Who said that…….Mr Spock?

Sherlock Holmes. But yes, Spock used it as well.

 

[Leafshater67]

I’ve never said it’s entirely his fault, actually what I’ve said is you can’t compartmentalize and throw scorn around, while simulateously absolving the GM. The soldiers blew it, the sergeant made mistakes, there was some bad weather, but the general did his job. Doesn’t work that way, which is why it should be 100 percent he failed, if you want to say “to date” that’s another discussion but to actually vote NO is absurd, they’ve all failed.

The soldiers are understaffed because a few of them eat up the whole payroll. There’s a buy-in to win the Stanley cup and nobody has come close with 33+ into 3 players. They’re spread way too thin because of Dubas.

He should have played hardball with Marner, kept Kadri and not signed Tavares at all. They could have spread that cap space on actually having depth and secondary scoring options because clearly as evidenced in the last 5 playoffs, that’s what they need most.

Dubas also has no concept of what it takes to make a team win in the playoffs. He doesn’t value grit, work ethic, depth or anything else - he just wants to keep drafting and signing 5’10 players with above average IQ but nothing else.

We’ve seen Dubas’ vision and it sucks. Hes made too many mistakes and cursed this team and until he makes the moves to fix that, we’re forever going to be watching this team get smoked in the playoffs. It’s disgraceful

 

[Twine Tickler]

I’ve never said it’s entirely his fault, actually what I’ve said is you can’t compartmentalize and throw scorn around, while simulateously absolving the GM. The soldiers blew it, the sergeant made mistakes, there was some bad weather, but the general did his job. Doesn’t work that way, which is why it should be 100 percent he failed, if you want to say “to date” that’s another discussion but to actually vote NO is absurd, they’ve all failed.

Ya I mean, with all due respect I think the intention of the thread was to single out Dubas as being the failure despite having a title that could also be interpreted as part of the failure. Maybe I am reading into it too much. Just seems silly to throw a single person's name on a thread title in that regard if we can all agree the entire organization has failed.

no different in threads about players, some people are pro, some people are con. That's kind of how I see this thread.

there are very clear Dubas supporters, like myself, and very clear Dubas haters. Both unlikely to convince one another of their stances. The direction of the thread has been a laundry list of negatives from the detractors followed by an equally long list in contrast by the supporters. I am sure there are Dubas hater's out there that are willing to accept that he has done a lot of good for the club, but for them the bad out weighs the good. It's just usually not how the dialog tends to go on here lol. From either standpoint really.

 

[zeke]

According to Simmonds, no team with 5 consecutive 1st round loses has gone on to win the SC. When informed Shanny stumbled over his words and pretty much said there will always be a first.

I get it. But it's an arbitrary stat.

 

[zeke]

Not many GMs inherit Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Rielly, Andersen and a strong supporting cast. That should be more than enough to offset the lack of inherited ELC contracts. No ??

Inheriting Andersen wasn't a good thing.

He inherited an excellent trio of core players.... that had to be paid as soon as he took over, with zero impact elc talent beyond. And a number of horrendous contracts to deal with.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If he would have traded futures for a #1 goalie that was under contract beyond this year, we would have more than likely lost Jack in expansion. Which would have been an "additional cost" to what it took to acquire this #1. We'd lose a valuable asset in Jack because we could only protect 1 goalie. That plays a big factor.

pretty well every deadline acquisition this year was a rental for that reason alone. Because there was the additional cost to retain them. In fact, the only thing that was smart was acquiring pending UFA's because you wouldn't have to protect them, and still sign them later if you wanted to. These players are traditional rentals. It was a backwards logic, for this year only, and KD acted accordingly.

I get it. He didn't get us a #1 goalie and that's fine. But IMO that's no excuse for spending futures on rentals. I disagree that acquiring rentals was the smart thing, the smart thing was to stand pat and not spend the futures.

I am talking about their abilities to overcome the mental hurdle of winning a round. The data suggests they are 0/5, the heart suggests they can mature past this.

Man that heart's been killing me these last few years ...

I guess you could blame Dubas for the guy you called an elite vezina contender starting goalie imploding.

For all of 32 playoffs games now.

What you don't get is that you win and lose as a team. You keep making excuses, if only this or that part of the team wasn't pulling us down then ...

Excuses are for losers. Perhaps you should think about that next time you go on a posting spree telling us how good this team is.

The last 4 years we were outscored 18-6 in deciding games, 11-2 the last 3 years. If you're desperate to pump this team's tires then you're going to have to come up with something better than blame the goalie.

Would you be willing to bet serious money that M&M are career long playoff duds?

Depending on how you define dud, I might put a few bob on Marner. But forget M&M for a moment and let me ask you this - if in the next 5 years, we got past the first round 2/3 times, got past the 2nd round once but never went further than that would be that be a decent outcome? Or would you think the team underachieved? Would the team still be a playoff dud? Or would you consider a few playoff series victories to be a breakthrough.

Ya I mean, with all due respect I think the intention of the thread was to single out Dubas as being the failure despite having a title that could also be interpreted as part of the failure. Maybe I am reading into it too much. Just seems silly to throw a single person's name on a thread title in that regard if we can all agree the entire organization has failed.

no different in threads about players, some people are pro, some people are con. That's kind of how I see this thread.

there are very clear Dubas supporters, like myself, and very clear Dubas haters. Both unlikely to convince one another of their stances. The direction of the thread has been a laundry list of negatives from the detractors followed by an equally long list in contrast by the supporters. I am sure there are Dubas hater's out there that are willing to accept that he has done a lot of good for the club, but for them the bad out weighs the good. It's just usually not how the dialog tends to go on here lol. From either standpoint really.

I think so far Dubas has done some good things and some bad things. IMO his worst move so far is this offseason assuming he stays the course as seems to be the case. He needs to understand that the flat cap has screwed up his plans and staying the course likely dooms us to not winning the cup for several more years.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I would say the organization as a whole has failed. Kyle being part of this organization. And when we dive deeper as to why this team has failed, I think his contribution to that failure is not as great as the players themselves. Who consistently perform to a high level, just not when it matters the most.

That seems reasonable. On the other hand, he's the architect of the team so if it keeps failing it becomes his fault at some point. He's staying the course despite this group failing multiple times in pathetic fashion which seems like a very strange decision so if it happens again, I'd say he's the number #1 place to put the blame and if we do fail again, I just hope he hasn't traded away many more futures before his ass is canned.

 

[Blowfish]

I get it. He didn't get us a #1 goalie and that's fine. But IMO that's no excuse for spending futures on rentals. I disagree that acquiring rentals was the smart thing, the smart thing was to stand pat and not spend the futures.



Man that heart's been killing me these last few years ...



What you don't get is that you win and lose as a team. You keep making excuses, if only this or that part of the team wasn't pulling us down then ...

Excuses are for losers. Perhaps you should think about that next time you go on a posting spree telling us how good this team is.

The last 4 years we were outscored 18-6 in deciding games, 11-2 the last 3 years. If you're desperate to pump this team's tires then you're going to have to come up with something better than blame the goalie.



Depending on how you define dud, I might put a few bob on Marner. But forget M&M for a moment and let me ask you this - if in the next 5 years, we got past the first round 2/3 times, got past the 2nd round once but never went further than that would be that be a decent outcome? Or would you think the team underachieved? Would the team still be a playoff dud? Or would you consider a few playoff series victories to be a breakthrough.



I think so far Dubas has done some good things and some bad things. IMO his worst move so far is this offseason assuming he stays the course as seems to be the case. He needs to understand that the flat cap has screwed up his plans and staying the course likely dooms us to not winning the cup for several more years.

Well done.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

You get statistic anomalies when looking at small sample sizes, that is what is suggested unless you think Matthews is going to shoot at 2.9% each playoff.

I don't know when the sample size becomes large enough to start getting worried, but I'd say for most logical people it isn't 12 games.

I realize a 2.9 shooting % isn't realistic for a guy like Matthews but he wasn't showing that extra gear to get by Danault and get more chances. Matthews with his size, hands and shot should be able to dominate and overpower opponents.

I'll use Mackinnon as an example. He would've had ROR draped all over him in the first round this year and ended up with 9 pts in 4 games. Same goes for the 2nd round where he would've been dealing with Mark Stone who is an elite defensive player and still managed 6 pts in 6 games.

 

[Zybalto]

I realize a 2.9 shooting % isn't realistic for a guy like Matthews but he wasn't showing that extra gear to get by Danault and get more chances. Matthews with his size, hands and shot should be able to dominate and overpower opponents.

I'll use Mackinnon as an example. He would've had ROR draped all over him in the first round this year and ended up with 9 pts in 4 games. Same goes for the 2nd round where he would've been dealing with Mark Stone who is an elite defensive player and still managed 6 pts in 6 games.

Matthews ranking out of the 176 forwards with at least 50 minutes played in the first round this year:

Total Shots: 2nd highest out of 176
Shots/60: 8th highest out of 176

Individual Scoring Chances: 3rd highest out of 176
Individual Scoring Chances/60: 5th highest out of 176

Individual Expected Goals: 3rd highest out of 176
IndividualExpected Goals/60: 7th highest out of 176

Price going beast mode + hitting a stupid amount of posts kept the injured Matthews from improving on his 5 points in 7 games.

Combine those numbers with his solid 5v5 underlying defensive metrics and:

Goals against/60: 9th fewest out of 166

Overall Takeaways: 1st out of 176 by a mile
Overall Takeaways/60: 1st out of 176 by a mile

Best giveaway to takeaway ratio in the first round.


Danault (with his 1 point in the series and his line being completely dismantled) got absolutely owned by Matthews in the series, maybe worse than any matchup hes had in his playoff career, no joke.

Once you take a step back and look at the overall stats, it's pretty crazy just how dominant Matthews was and how awful the 3rd and 4th lines (and the bottom pairings) of the Leafs were in the series.



....and I know you have to ultimately put the biscuit in the basket but lets not pretend like he wasn't absolutely rolling anyone the Habs put in front of him. 2nd best player on either team (to the series MVP Price of course)

 

[Racer88]

Sherlock Holmes. But yes, Spock used it as well.

Both wonderful gentlemen

 

[Racer88]

Matthews ranking out of the 176 forwards with at least 50 minutes played in the first round this year:

Total Shots: 2nd highest out of 176
Shots/60: 8th highest out of 176

Individual Scoring Chances: 3rd highest out of 176
Individual Scoring Chances/60: 5th highest out of 176

Individual Expected Goals: 3rd highest out of 176
IndividualExpected Goals/60: 7th highest out of 176

Price going beast mode + hitting a stupid amount of posts kept the injured Matthews from improving on his 5 points in 7 games.

Combine those numbers with his solid 5v5 underlying defensive metrics and:

Goals against/60: 9th fewest out of 166

Overall Takeaways: 1st out of 176 by a mile
Overall Takeaways/60: 1st out of 176 by a mile

Best giveaway to takeaway ratio in the first round.


Danault (with his 1 point in the series and his line being completely dismantled) got absolutely owned by Matthews in the series, maybe worse than any matchup hes had in his playoff career, no joke.

Once you take a step back and look at the overall stats, it's pretty crazy just how dominant Matthews was and how awful the 3rd and 4th lines (and the bottom pairings) of the Leafs were in the series.



....and I know you have to ultimately put the biscuit in the basket but lets not pretend like he wasn't absolutely rolling anyone the Habs put in front of him. 2nd best player on either team (to the series MVP Price of course)

The stats mean nothing when you can’t finish and your team loses in epic fashion once again

 

[Zybalto]

The stats mean nothing when you can’t finish and your team loses in epic fashion once again

Just pointing out where criticism needs to be pointed is all.

The top seven regular Leafs forwards (including Matthews) having 32 points while the bottom 7 combining for 5 points at the same time they got owned by the likes of Armia and old men Perry and Staal pretty much confirms who were the weak links on the team.

You dont just attack the top of a team because it doesnt advance without looking at the reason why.

Barzal was absolute dogcrap in the first round but it didnt really matter in the end as his team had the better goaltending and depth players came though.

Matthews was one of the best players in the first round but it just happened that the opposing goalie was the MVP of the series.......it doesnt really take away from the fact he was an absolute beast on the ice though and even playing injured.

Theres a reason why almost no one thinks the cup final Habs are even going to make the playoffs as their team implodes in front of our eyes. It's because they got lucky and even most Habs fans acknowledge this point. Just gotta retool and make another run at it. This is a really good team and it wouldnt be a shock to see them win a cup, just need to actually catch a good break or two for once. Can you actually think of a lucky break this team has gotten? It's been nothing but injuries, suspensions, poor depth player performance, brutal puck luck and hot goalies the last few years.

 

[zeke]

I

What you don't get is that you win and lose as a team. You keep making excuses, if only this or that part of the team wasn't pulling us down then ...

Excuses are for losers. Perhaps you should think about that next time you go on a posting spree telling us how good this team is.

Strange response. I know you have an unhealthy attachment to Freddy but it is possible and correct to diagnose specific issues with a team, including goaltending.

The fact is that the Leafs maintaining a similar record under dubas, despite Freddy imploding, means something about the rest of the team he built.

The last 4 years we were outscored 18-6 in deciding games, 11-2 the last 3 years. If you're desperate to pump this team's tires then you're going to have to come up with something better than blame the goalie.

As we've gone over endlessly, I have clearly laid the blame for Playoffs failures on more than goaltending. Amusingly, you get just as righteously angry when I blame our star forwards for choking as you are now. Doesn't seem to matter where I place the blame, you're always upset about it.

And it's weird that you keep on forgetting the clear answers I give to your endless questions. Still waiting for you to answer any of mine, btw.

 

[notbias]

I realize a 2.9 shooting % isn't realistic for a guy like Matthews but he wasn't showing that extra gear to get by Danault and get more chances. Matthews with his size, hands and shot should be able to dominate and overpower opponents.

I'll use Mackinnon as an example. He would've had ROR draped all over him in the first round this year and ended up with 9 pts in 4 games. Same goes for the 2nd round where he would've been dealing with Mark Stone who is an elite defensive player and still managed 6 pts in 6 games.

I think you need to look at his chances if you don't think he got enough of them, the line dominated Danault, just couldn't finish

 

[zeke]

Just pointing out where criticism needs to be pointed is all.

The top seven regular Leafs forwards (including Matthews) having 32 points while the bottom 7 combining for 5 points at the same time they got owned by the likes of Armia and old men Perry and Staal pretty much confirms who were the weak links on the team.

Thus just isn't right tho.

TOP-3 (Matthews, Marner, Tavares): 1gls, 9pts
2nd-3 (Nylander, Hyman, Foligno): 6gls, 10pts
3rd-3 (Kerfoot, Galchenyuk, Mikheyev): 2gls, 10pts
4th-3 (Spezza, Thornton, Simmonds): 4gls, 7pts
Extra (Engvall, Nash, Brooks): 0gls, 1pta

Top-3D (Rielly, Muzzin, Brodie): 4gls, 10pts
Bot-4D (Holl, Sandin, Bogo, Dermott): 1gls, 3pts


Cant ask for anything more from the scoring depth.

Its the big boys that didn't produce.

 

[egd27]

Inheriting zero impact ELC talent whatsoever is anything but enviable.

Are you actually claiming Dubas stepped into an unenviable situation when he became GM?

 

[zeke]

Are you actually claiming Dubas stepped into an unenviable situation when he became GM?

Correct. A capped out team needing to give huge raises to its elite talent, with no impact ELC talent at all in the system, and a few doozy untradeable contracts to deal with too. And oh yeah, the starting goalie he inherited completely fell apart, too.

 

[TheProspector]

Fixed this team's goaltending, fixed this team's defense (!!!!!), kept the core together. Because sample size makes no other approach remotely tenable, I judge Dubas on the things he's done - and not on whether a Matthews shot bounced out rather than in. And it's been above expectation, and I had high expectations.

I am pretty certain that maybe three people around here understand the relationship of variability to sample size.

 

[DarkKnight]

I realize a 2.9 shooting % isn't realistic for a guy like Matthews but he wasn't showing that extra gear to get by Danault and get more chances. Matthews with his size, hands and shot should be able to dominate and overpower opponents.

I'll use Mackinnon as an example. He would've had ROR draped all over him in the first round this year and ended up with 9 pts in 4 games. Same goes for the 2nd round where he would've been dealing with Mark Stone who is an elite defensive player and still managed 6 pts in 6 games.

Here’s why I hate hiding behind Matthews shooting percentage. Go back and rewatch the last three games of that series. Do you see a guy who wants the puck, or a guy who inexplicably passes it off time after time, uncharacteristically ? Do you see a hulk of man, with the best shot in this league, say eff it boys follow me and we’re going to get it done, or a guy who’s maddeningly content to wait for the game to come to HIM? Did you see any leadership or a shrinking violet? Urgency or complacency? The shooting percentage is a security blanket, that’s one ugly, embarrassing performance under the sheets. I mean, even Marner, as bad as he was, you can argue he was physically outmatched, what’s Big Sexy’s excuse, guy is blessed with a world class hockey physique and he played like he was 5 foot 2 when we needed him.

 

[Zybalto]

Thus just isn't right tho.

TOP-3 (Matthews, Marner, Tavares): 1gls, 9pts
2nd-3 (Nylander, Hyman, Foligno): 6gls, 10pts
3rd-3 (Kerfoot, Galchenyuk, Mikheyev): 2gls, 10pts
4th-3 (Spezza, Thornton, Simmonds): 4gls, 7pts
Extra (Engvall, Nash, Brooks): 0gls, 1pta

Top-3D (Rielly, Muzzin, Brodie): 4gls, 10pts
Bot-4D (Holl, Sandin, Bogo, Dermott): 1gls, 3pts


Cant ask for anything more from the scoring depth.

Its the big boys that didn't produce.

Those dont really match up as actual lines though right?

In terms of individual production, there seems to be a clear cutoff of those who scored 4+ points and those that scored 1 or less:

Points:
Nylander: 8
Kerfoot: 6
Matthews: 5
Spezza: 5
Marner: 4
Galchenyuk: 4

-----------------

Hyman: 1
Foligno: 1
Thornton: 1
Engvall: 1
Simmonds: 1
Mikheyev: 0
Nash: 0
Brooks: 0
Tavares: 0 (injured)


(I did make an error in my OP too of course in that it was 6 forwards that combined for 32 points and 8 that combined for 5, 9 if you want to count Tavares like you did)

Its not quite fair to just base performance off of points production though, especially seeing how the series was a rather low scoring one. How did these same players fare win overall 5v5 goal differential and xGF% (you do still like xGF% right?) Leaving out Tavares here for obvious reasons.

Goal differential:

1. Hyman
2. Marner
3. Matthews
4. Spezza
5. Foligno
6. Galchenyuk
7. Kerfoot
8. Nylander
9. Mikheyev
10. Nash

-----------------------50%

11. Simmonds
12. Engvall
13. Thornton
14. Brooks

xGF%:

1. Engvall
2. Marner
3. Hyman
4. Simmonds
5. Matthews
6. Spezza
7. Mikheyev
8. Nylander
9. Foligno
10. Kerfoot

-------------------------50%

11. Thornton
12. Brooks
13. Galchenyuk
14. Nash


Some players fare better than others here in showing their value to the team like Hyman but you do have to notice that only 3 players are top 6 in all three of points scored, goal differential and xGF% right?

I wouldnt be casting many stones in their direction.

If we are going to ignore the injury issues and once again finding a stupid good goaltending performance in front of us, I would instead be glaring at the totally useless (Brooks/Thornton/Nash/Mikheyev) and the players who gave games away (Galchenyuk, Dermott).

 

[Gary Nylund]

Theres a reason why almost no one thinks the cup final Habs are even going to make the playoffs as their team implodes in front of our eyes. It's because they got lucky and even most Habs fans acknowledge this point. Just gotta retool and make another run at it. This is a really good team and it wouldnt be a shock to see them win a cup, just need to actually catch a good break or two for once. Can you actually think of a lucky break this team has gotten? It's been nothing but injuries, suspensions, poor depth player performance, brutal puck luck and hot goalies the last few years.

We've been outscored 18-6 in the last 4 series deciding games, 11-2 in the last 3. That's not luck.

Strange response. I know you have an unhealthy attachment to Freddy but it is possible and correct to diagnose specific issues with a team, including goaltending.

The fact is that the Leafs maintaining a similar record under dubas, despite Freddy imploding, means something about the rest of the team he built.

You seem to be obsessed with Freddie. Newsflash - he wasn't our goalie in these playoffs.

We've been outscored 18-6 in the last 4 series deciding games, 11-2 in the last 3, in the last two playoffs, our goaltending was more than good enough to win and saying that's the reason we lost suggests you either have an agenda or you don't understand hockey.

As we've gone over endlessly, I have clearly laid the blame for Playoffs failures on more than goaltending. Amusingly, you get just as righteously angry when I blame our star forwards for choking as you are now. Doesn't seem to matter where I place the blame, you're always upset about it.

You called our players choking dogs. I think that shows a lack of class on your part and it also doesn't jive with you saying what a great team is. It also suggests that if anyone's angry around here, it's you.

And it's weird that you keep on forgetting the clear answers I give to your endless questions. Still waiting for you to answer any of mine, btw.

So now you say I haven't answered "any" of your questions? That's rich, even for you buddy. If I show you some posts where you've asked and I've answered, will you admit you're wrong?

Correct. A capped out team needing to give huge raises to its elite talent, with no impact ELC talent at all in the system, and a few doozy untradeable contracts to deal with too. And oh yeah, the starting goalie he inherited completely fell apart, too.

A team stacked with young talent that smashed franchise rookie scoring records. If you didn't think this team's future looked bright when Dubas took over than I think you're the only one.

 

[mydnyte]

we were barely in a playoff spot in our regular division 2 seasons ago and have been knocked out by weak teams the last 2 years so while we want to believe we're cup contenders are we really or is our Leaf bias clouding our judgement

also Dubas didn't build our core pieces so why should he get credit for them ?

and i don't give a damn about Holland or Chia since it has nothing to do with our situation but i will say trying to attract/keep players in Edm is a lot harder than it is in Toronto

Simmonds has been cooked for years so comparing him to a solid bottom 6 player like Czikas is absurd .

Lou isn't perfect but he's done a hell of job on the Island and the deals he handed out today were all solid regardless on how some people are trying to spin them .

as far as this year goes , with have a shit load of ? on this team

-Bunting is in his mid 20's and barely has played in the NHL
-Ritchie is a cast off from the Bruins that we hope will play better for us
-Kase we're hoping can recover from multiple concussions and even if he does we have no idea how he'll play
-Mzerak/Campbell , who the f*** knows how they'll play for us and the former has been brutal in the playoffs
-can Sandin or Lilly be full time NHLers
-how will JT and Muzzin play one year older
-does Spezza have another good year in him

this team can go a lot of ways and many of the paths aren't pretty

every word you said is legit, but, i still expect us to finish 2nd to TB ...even with all the question marks.

as far as Lou goes, you dont give any 4th liner a 6 year deal unless he's in his early 20's and has upside. ...i really like Cizikas a lot, but 6 years is just stupid, Palmieri got going rate for a guy who is maxed as a mid 50's point guy and he fit in well
Soroken on the other hand is a whole 3 years younger than Campbell and played a whopping 22 games in the NHL, i believe he may have great potential still, but, he's not a $4million goalie yet

 

[4thline]

Depending on how you define dud, I might put a few bob on Marner. But forget M&M for a moment and let me ask you this - if in the next 5 years, we got past the first round 2/3 times, got past the 2nd round once but never went further than that would be that be a decent outcome? Or would you think the team underachieved? Would the team still be a playoff dud? Or would you consider a few playoff series victories to be a breakthrough.

Well, let's start with what they've delivered during Dubas' tenure. Matthews at 64% of his regular season goal output, 78% of his point. Marner @ 31% of his goal output, 55% of his point. I understand the decision to bet on that not continuing.

As per the outcome question, that leaves us with 10 straight post season appearances, a 100% playoff rate under the current gm, with the last 5 years seeing one cup/ conference final, two second rounds. Assuming some sort of "random" distribution" over the next five years (ex NOT all the wins in the next 3 then two straight bad 1st round exits) I would have split reactions. Emotionally I would be disapointed at no cup. That's the end game. But providing that the system is in good shape, still no bad contracts, intellectually I'd say that's a well run organization going through the ups and downs and vagaries of being a perennial playoff team. We'd be facing a very hard decision. Do you make a change at the top to get over the hump (Washington), or do we stay the course and give our guy more time (St. Louis). The former could react in a short term moves that sends us on a down cycle, the latter could result in a Sharks/Wilson purgatory.

 

[ottomaddox]

Are people hoping that hitting the post becomes an official stat?

I would argue that close to scoring, almost scored, might have scored is not scoring a goal.