Has Dubas failed at his job?

[egd27]

They can and they did.

At the cost of dismantling a young, promising team over 3 short seasons with nothing to show for it.

Oh well, only a few weeks until we see what his latest group can do.

 

[justashadowof]

At the cost of dismantling a young, promising team over 3 short seasons with nothing to show for it.

Oh well, only a few weeks until we see what his latest group can do.

I suppose I need to get over this one thing but I thought this was going to be a team of many young guys arriving on the scene at the same time and building towards a championship. Call me an old fashioned fan, I'm invested in the Kapanen's, Johnsson's, Brown's, Moore's, Kadri's, etc. as much as the star players, if not more. I envisioned a bearded scarred Connor Brown scoring a crucial OT goal capping off a true team win. I projected that one playoff series when Kasperi Kapanen went that next level looking like the reincarnation of Bob Gainey. I dreamt of an aged Kadri with very little left in the tank hoisting the Cup over his head after everything he had been through with the organization: wanting to be a Canadien, sluggish pro start, missed alarms, overzealous aggression, emotional apologies, etc.

Instead we've got the addition of a half dozen players other orgs deemed as expendable including some extremely suspect as potential contributors. The 4 phases of grief...

 

[zeke]

You're just being dismissive now. Simmons did make a good point. I also think that it was refreshing that Simmons didn't let Shanny off the hook. Shanny presented (once again) more sports cliches as to why they came up short and Simmons had the stones to say "it's not working with this group" (paraphrasing).

Simmons has never made an honest point in his life.

 

[zeke]

At the cost of dismantling a young, promising team over 3 short seasons with nothing to show for it.

Oh well, only a few weeks until we see what his latest group can do.

dismantling? how is adding Tavares, Muzzin, Brodie, Campbell/Mrazek "dismantling"?

even if you think we could have saved as much as $5m in our contracts to the big 3 - how would that have prevented any "dismantling"?

or are you suggesting that the "enviable" scenario that our GM was in was one in which he shouldn't have considered signing any top-end UFA at any point, and/or that he had to trade one of his elite young talents?

 

[ottomaddox]

Simmons has never made an honest point in his life.

More dismissal. I see.

 

[zeke]

More dismissal. I see.

absolutely.

if you are using Simmons as support, you are wrong. full stop.

 

[ottomaddox]

dismantling? how is adding Tavares, Muzzin, Brodie, Campbell/Mrazek "dismantling"?

even if you think we could have saved as much as $5m in our contracts to the big 3 - how would that have prevented any "dismantling"?

or are you suggesting that the "enviable" scenario that our GM was in was one in which he shouldn't have considered signing any top-end UFA at any point, and/or that he had to trade one of his elite young talents?

Why did you include Mrazek on your list?

 

[zeke]

Why did you include Mrazek on your list?

why wouldn't I?

 

[ottomaddox]

absolutely.

if you are using Simmons as support, you are wrong. full stop.

i·de·al·is·tic
/ˌīdē(ə)ˈlistik/
Learn to pronounce
adjective

1. characterized by idealism; unrealistically aiming for perfection.
   "idealistic young doctors who went to work for the rebels"

 

[ottomaddox]

why wouldn't I?

I think that was a defensive response.

 

[zeke]

i·de·al·is·tic
/ˌīdē(ə)ˈlistik/
Learn to pronounce
adjective

1. characterized by idealism; unrealistically aiming for perfection.
   "idealistic young doctors who went to work for the rebels"

 

[zeke]

I think that was a defensive response.

I am glad we have two good goalies.

 

[egd27]

dismantling? how is adding Tavares, Muzzin, Brodie, Campbell/Mrazek "dismantling"?

Because one of those ill timed additions has ultimately resulted in the subtraction Kap, Johnsson, Brown, Hyman, Kadri, an 11th(?) overall draft pick, and probably others I'm forgetting

as @justashadowof posted, there were a number of fans that were looking forward to see that group grow together and see what they could become with astute additions (like Muzzin or Brodie)

Others wanted the "big name" individuals so they could brag about the star power the Leafs had and excuse their failures with what was "expected" to happen but didn't

 

[ottomaddox]

What does this mean? What are you saying when you post his picture? You don't care for the way he looks?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well, let's start with what they've delivered during Dubas' tenure. Matthews at 64% of his regular season goal output, 78% of his point. Marner @ 31% of his goal output, 55% of his point. I understand the decision to bet on that not continuing.

As per the outcome question, that leaves us with 10 straight post season appearances, a 100% playoff rate under the current gm, with the last 5 years seeing one cup/ conference final, two second rounds. Assuming some sort of "random" distribution" over the next five years (ex NOT all the wins in the next 3 then two straight bad 1st round exits) I would have split reactions. Emotionally I would be disapointed at no cup. That's the end game. But providing that the system is in good shape, still no bad contracts, intellectually I'd say that's a well run organization going through the ups and downs and vagaries of being a perennial playoff team. We'd be facing a very hard decision. Do you make a change at the top to get over the hump (Washington), or do we stay the course and give our guy more time (St. Louis). The former could react in a short term moves that sends us on a down cycle, the latter could result in a Sharks/Wilson purgatory.

Fair enough. For myself, getting past the 2nd round just once in the next 5 years would be a pretty big disappointment. And the 10 years as a whole would be a huge disappointment and making the playoffs 10 years in a row does nothing to make up for that for the simple reason that with all this talent, making the playoffs should be a foregone conclusion.

It definitely looked bright, but there were those of us that acknowledged that there was an ELC boost and that avoiding a major step back when they ended was going to take some fancy footwork.

I also think there's a very visceral and irrational reaction by people that *expected* a cup by now rather than hoped for one that feel like Dubas robbed them of a sure thing, and that's, as I said, irrational. At no point were we on the last leg of a 4x100 with a 10m lead as one poster put it.

I'd go a bit further than that and say that at the time Dubas took over, the list of teams who's future looked brighter than ours did was very short indeed.

Expecting a cup by now is of course irrational but I think we all expected a lot more by now than what the reality has been.

Why are you pretending that I haven't given you other reasons - in clear and direct answers to your very questions, no less?

I might have to stop answering your questions if you're going to ignore my answers.

Still waiting for you to answer any one of my questions, of course.

Wat?

Yep.

A team with franchise talent....all immediately due huge raises, while the team was capped out, with no impact ELC talent coming up, and a few doozy untraceable contracts to boot.

And oh yeah - the goalie he inherited completely fell apart, too.

And oh yeah - according to you all that franchise talent he inherited was also fatally flawed - a bunch of losers that need to be traded. Almost forgot about that.

Your answers as a rule are anything but clear, you mostly just spin and spin to avoid giving a straight answer. As far as us losing goes, you keep giving the same reasons - goaltending and choking dogs which is fine if that's your opinion. Our goalies played quite well in the last two playoffs though so you're just wrong.

This "threat" of not answering my question is an empty one since you're doing this already. Remember when you said that every post I've ever made was wrong and my response was to ask you - "what about all the times that I agreed with you - was I wrong then as well"? The list of questions you haven't answered is a long one but one one sticks in my brain as it was so funny. I mean it's hard to see how you could answer without admitting that at one point or another you were wrong so of course, you disappeared.

Feel free to answer that one now. Can you give a simple answer this one time without spinning like a top? A simple yes or no is all that's required - all those time that I agreed with you, was I wrong then too?

I've also asked you how you can keep going on about what a great team we have when it's leaders are choking dogs. Seems like a pretty big conflict there so not surprised you don't have an answer.

You're just being dismissive now. Simmons did make a good point. I also think that it was refreshing that Simmons didn't let Shanny off the hook. Shanny presented (once again) more sports cliches as to why they came up short and Simmons had the stones to say "it's not working with this group" (paraphrasing).

Simmons seems to be a bit of jerk but I remember that, and that was indeed refreshing!

 

[hotpaws]

every word you said is legit, but, i still expect us to finish 2nd to TB ...even with all the question marks.

as far as Lou goes, you dont give any 4th liner a 6 year deal unless he's in his early 20's and has upside. ...i really like Cizikas a lot, but 6 years is just stupid, Palmieri got going rate for a guy who is maxed as a mid 50's point guy and he fit in well
Soroken on the other hand is a whole 3 years younger than Campbell and played a whopping 22 games in the NHL, i believe he may have great potential still, but, he's not a $4million goalie yet

I agree we could finish 2nd , it wouldn't surprise me but i wouldn't go as far as to say i expect it .

my thoughts on some of Lou's deals

Cizikas got 6 yrs to lower the cap hit so i agree ideally you don't want to go that long but at that price he wasn't going to go 3/4 yrs and he's not your typical 4th line C . Also he's a very popular career Islander and going by there board they love the contract .

Palmieri's deal compared to Hyman/Coleman is a steal especially at that term . He produced for them in the playoffs and has been a consistent 20ish goals 50ish point player before last season and your right he fits there team well ,

It took forever to convince Sorokin to come to the NHL that's why he's only played 22 games and goalies were getting paid this summer , Ulmark/Shesterkin to mention a couple , hell we paid almost 4m for an injury prone guy who shits the bed in the playoffs , so imo his deal while a gamble is more than fair considering what other tenders were getting .and his potential . But who the hell knows with goalies and his deal could like complete shit at the end of this season .

the contract i'm expecting Lou to overpay on is Parise which will be the only bad one he handed out this off season imo

and for our sake i'm hoping most of the shit Dubie threw at the wall this off season sticks

 

[Twine Tickler]

I suppose I need to get over this one thing but I thought this was going to be a team of many young guys arriving on the scene at the same time and building towards a championship. Call me an old fashioned fan, I'm invested in the Kapanen's, Johnsson's, Brown's, Moore's, Kadri's, etc. as much as the star players, if not more. I envisioned a bearded scarred Connor Brown scoring a crucial OT goal capping off a true team win. I projected that one playoff series when Kasperi Kapanen went that next level looking like the reincarnation of Bob Gainey. I dreamt of an aged Kadri with very little left in the tank hoisting the Cup over his head after everything he had been through with the organization: wanting to be a Canadien, sluggish pro start, missed alarms, overzealous aggression, emotional apologies, etc.

Instead we've got the addition of a half dozen players other orgs deemed as expendable including some extremely suspect as potential contributors. The 4 phases of grief...

Ya I think if we had it over again this would have been the approach that would have given us the best shot. It would have forced Mitch and Auston to be the leaders of the team. Unfortunately all we have now is a hindsight logic on that.

All that aside, this current group is every bit as talented if not more than the homegrown version you dreamt of, and to some degree I still wonder/dream about.

There is no definitive way to know how that version of this club would have done, but I do often think about it. It does me no good unfortunately.

I just have to remind myself that our team is extremely talented as is, and even that was not enough to break through. So it really would not been guaranteed success having that version of the TML either.

onward and upward

 

[justashadowof]

What does this mean? What are you saying when you post his picture? You don't care for the way he looks?

It's a self-own to stoop to that sort of level. I'm going to assume he's missing, out of naivety, what it says to a certain part of the population to just post a photo in this context.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ya I think if we had it over again this would have been the approach that would have given us the best shot. It would have forced Mitch and Auston to be the leaders of the team. Unfortunately all we have now is a hindsight logic on that.

All that aside, this current group is every bit as talented if not more than the homegrown version you dreamt of, and to some degree I still wonder/dream about.

There is no definitive way to know how that version of this club would have done, but I do often think about it. It does me no good unfortunately.

I just have to remind myself that our team is extremely talented as is, and even that was not enough to break through. So it really would not been guaranteed success having that version of the TML either.

onward and upward

That "homegrown" version is interesting to think about and the way things have gone, it's natural to think about how things would have worked out had we gone down a different path. I do the same, sometimes I wonder whether or not signing Tavares was a bad move in hindsight? I still can't get there though, he's a great player and has played well for us but it's hard to be 100% sure about that either. And it's an interesting point you make about Match and Auston being forced to be the leaders, maybe there's something to that as well.

Onward for sure. Upward? Well, I guess we'll see about that. We're all hoping ...

 

[Wafflewhipper]

These guys playing are fair weather friends. They want it but don’t have the character,will or desire to fight the dirty fight of playoffs. Seen it five times in a row with mostly the same players failing to show enough character to battle.

Shinnyhan can stop the B.S optimism. This franchise has no fight in it from the top down. No fire,no anger and it seems a unacceptable degree acceptance of failure.

Thats just the not something they want to hear. Some fans on here don’t want to hear that their adv stat princesses are gutless losers but its true. We watched it far to long.

Soft disengaged teams are losers. They can kid themselves, I’m not buying it. That’s why Kraft Dinner went out and got some heavies finally. Bout f***** time. Intangibles,scrapping and intensity was missing. Was there ever any doubt that was the issue. The top players should get in line for their helping of it because it must have ran out the last time they lined up

Haha Simmons asks the questions that challenges them and they hate it lol

 

[81Leafs50]

the only think Dubas has failed at is getting a legit LW for the top line. thats it. thats all.

Stamkos and Hedman didn't jack squat for 10 years, 5 of those years Kucherov was there too.
Ovie, Backstrom, and the boys needed 14 years to win. ONLY ONCE EVER have they passed the 2nd round.

Matthews, Marner, and Tavares have been together for 3 years.

winning is not easy. it doesn't happen often. Leafs fans think winning is easy and its just a matter of snapping your fingers.

Dubas, the last 3 years since adding Tavares, has put together the most talent Leafs Nation has seen since 1993.

Its up to the players to execute and do their jobs.

 

[geo25]

These guys playing are fair weather friends. They want it but don’t have the character,will or desire to fight the dirty fight of playoffs. Seen it five times in a row with mostly the same players failing to show enough character to battle.

Shinnyhan can stop the B.S optimism. This franchise has no fight in it from the top down. No fire,no anger and it seems a unacceptable degree acceptance of failure.

Thats just the not something they want to hear. Some fans on here don’t want to hear that their adv stat princesses are gutless losers but its true. We watched it far to long.

Soft disengaged teams are losers. They can kid themselves, I’m not buying it. That’s why Kraft Dinner went out and got some heavies finally. Bout f***** time. Intangibles,scrapping and intensity was missing. Was there ever any doubt that was the issue. The top players should get in line for their helping of it because it must have ran out the last time they lined up

Haha Simmons asks the questions that challenges them and they hate it lol

EXCELLENTLY STATED....GREAT POINTS....THE ABSOLUTE TRUTH...

 

[Gary Nylund]

the only think Dubas has failed at is getting a legit LW for the top line. thats it. thats all.

Stamkos and Hedman didn't jack squat for 10 years, 5 of those years Kucherov was there too.
Ovie, Backstrom, and the boys needed 14 years to win. ONLY ONCE EVER have they passed the 2nd round.

Matthews, Marner, and Tavares have been together for 3 years.

winning is not easy. it doesn't happen often. Leafs fans think winning is easy and its just a matter of snapping your fingers.

Dubas, the last 3 years since adding Tavares, has put together the most talent Leafs Nation has seen since 1993.

Its up to the players to execute and do their jobs.

Funny how Washington is now the measuring stick, whatever happened to comparing us against Chicago?

Nobody's arguing that we don't have talent. The goal is to win in the playoffs though and that we haven't done.

The most talent since 1993 - who cares? Are you sure you can't set the bar any lower than that?

 

[Zybalto]

I get it - our best players did outplayed their checkers.....but unfortunately they just didn't score anywhere near enough. Holding Danault off the scoresheet when he's not even trying to score isn't much of an accomplishment.

As for xgf%, the depth was fine there as well - only a few guys were underwater there, even though MTL Is a good xgf% team.

The only guys significantly underwater in xgf were:

Thornton 46.2% - #12F
Galchenyuk 36.8% - #13F - wasn't even dressed for gm1
Nash 15.4% - #14/15F only dressed twice
Brooks 41.8% - #14/15F only dressed twice

Basically all 4 of those guys were battling for one spot- the very last forward spot, and were the only depth forwards notably underwater against a good xgf team.

When is Danault not trying to score? In addition to his defensive rep, hes one of the best playmaking centers in the league, especially when playing with Gallagher (for reasons I'll explain later). Better 5v5 assist/60 numbers than most of his peers including Draisatl and Barkov for an extended time now.

When is Gallagher not trying to score? Masked by his injury issues, Gallagher is one of the top 5 most effective 5v5 goal scorers in the NHL.

Most 5v5 goals/60 in the NHL this past year?

1. Matthews
4. Gallagher

Hell, going back to the start of 2018:

Most 5v5 goals/60 in the NHL since the start of the 2018 season?

1. Matthews
2. Gallagher

Their underlying numbers certainly paint a picture of how effective they were during the regular season too.

Just focusing on Danault (as they have similar numbers here anyways)

CF%: 58.54
SF%: 59.22
xGF%: 57.82
GF%: 59.76

Daunault wasnt just a beast defensively, he also provided a ton of offense while playing against the best in the North (including the Leafs 1/6 of the time). He got the McDavids and Scheifeles and Matthews of the league every night.

How did he do in the playoffs?

CF%: 48.26
SF%: 40.10
xGF%: 34.89
GF%: 0.00 (-3)

You know damn well those are Brett Lebda type numbers and a shockingly bad performance considering the expectations.

His numbers shot way up once he got past the Leafs (55%+ xGF and GF% the rest of the way) but he certainly got stomped by Matthews in the series. The only things that stopped Matthews were a) Price and b) Matthews himself hitting all those posts (fair criticism here). To say Danault shut down Matthews and was trying not to score is pure fantasy.

You are right though in saying Montreal is a great xGF% team...and the Leafs absolutely dominated them in xGF%.

Actual lines? No.

But you can't say the depth was bad when they were forced up higher in the lineup to sub in for injured players and produced very well.

That's good depth, not bad depth.

I agree that the depth players promoted to fill in gaps produced well.....the problem is that it was atrocious after that. 6 out of 15 forwards accounted for 86.5% (32-5) of the point totals for forwards. Matthews and Marner may have underperformed points-wise but they completely negated whoever they were put up against and Nylanders line outscored their opponents as well. Outside of Spezza, the third and 4th lines (and bottom pairing) were overall pretty putrid.

 

[hotpaws]

[QUOTE="Gary Nylund, post: 180016363, member: 208611"]Funny how Washington is now the measuring stick, whatever happened to comparing us against Chicago?

Nobody's arguing that we don't have talent. The goal is to win in the playoffs though and that we haven't done.

The most talent since 1993 - who cares? Are you sure you can't set the bar any lower than that?[/QUOTE]
yup we're now getting compared to Washington but i'm also reading how Lou wasted the first 2 yrs of M and M elc's

it's starting to get difficult trying to keep up with the endless excuses that keep getting invented . lol