Has Dubas failed at his job?

[hotpaws]

Or they'll follow him to his next team? Hopefully.

one for sure will if Dubie has the budget , lol

 

[ACC1224]

Or they'll follow him to his next team? Hopefully.

As a leaf fan I can promise you we aren't that lucky.

 

[Dekes For Days]

that's what will exactly happen just like it did when Burke was fired

I imagine that in the unlikely scenario that Dubas is fired, Leaf fans will continue cheering for the Leafs. That's not "turning on" the previous GM.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Agreed 100%, his record speaks for itself.

- Unlike the previous GM who inherited the best group of ELC talent in hockey and wasted it by signing horrible contracts, Dubas inherited a team with ZERO ELC talent left, going on 3 years now.
- Despite this lack of ELC talent, he managed to add an elite #1C and TWO Top-end Dmen, better adds than anything the previous GM was able to do even with tons of capspace.
- He continues to have zero bad contracts on his roster, with every single player extremely tradeable.
- Since he had the freedom to hire his own coach, his team has played at a 108pt pace and run away with the division in the only full season with his own coach in charge.
- Has managed to draft one of the better prospect pools in hockey, despite having no top picks.

Well gee whiz, you make it sound like he's some sort of genius. Leaving aside for the moment whether all that is true or not, let me tell you what you've neglected to mention.

He took over a team that was 6th overall and M&M were just 21 in his first season in charge. As expected, M&M improved a ton during his tenure (if we ignore the playoffs) but despite this improvement, and despite trading away a bushelful of futures, the team has basically stayed at the same level during the regular season (I'll ignore the one poor season since there were many injuries) and has been an abysmal failure in the playoff.

You're right about one thing - his record does indeed, speak for itself.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Well gee whiz, you make it sound like he's some sort of genius. Leaving aside for the moment whether all that is true or not, let me tell you what you've neglected to mention.

He took over a team that was 6th overall and M&M were just 21 in his first season in charge. As expected, M&M improved a ton during his tenure (if we ignore the playoffs) but despite this improvement, and despite trading away a bushelful of futures, the team has basically stayed at the same level during the regular season (I'll ignore the one poor season since there were many injuries) and has been an abysmal failure in the playoff.

You're right about one thing - his record does indeed, speak for itself.

Keeping the team at the same level when Matthews/Marner/Nylander went from their ELCs to a combined ~30 million in salary is actually a good thing. The team should have gotten significantly worse. Especially since people are under the impression that Dubas walked into the most amazing situation a GM has ever walked into

 

[Gary Nylund]

Keeping the team at the same level when Matthews/Marner/Nylander went from their ELCs to a combined ~30 million in salary is actually a good thing. The team should have gotten significantly worse. Especially since people are under the impression that Dubas walked into the most amazing situation a GM has ever walked into

They make more money true, but they're also much better players (OK not in the playoffs, but still). "Most amazing" is hyberpole but a team stacked with the young talent we had is a very desirable situation, wouldn't you say? The team he took over was fresh off shattering team rookie scoring records, this was clearly a team expected to be on the rise.

Anyhow, my main point is that if we judge Dubas on his record, we should be looking at team achievements, now vague statements like "no bad contracts" or "signed great players" or whatever else. His record shows a team that has flatlined in the regular season and keeps going out in the 1st round of the playoffs despite getting easier opponents every year.

I agree with brother Zeke - his record speaks for itself.

 

[egd27]

The beginning of this run of crappy playoff results always circles back to Dubas signing Tavares. Dubas had what he thought was 3 stars in the making……he did not need to tie up 11 million on a player that really hasn’t won anything and was essentially the same position of his current budding stars.
He risked an unconventional build by spending 50% on essentially the same position and it’s a mess especially since one of them can’t get the job done in the playoffs.
I wouldn’t have as much problem with the 50% model if it was balance between forward, defence and goal………but it is not

obvious to the objective observer.

 

[Racer88]

obvious to the objective observer.

I kinda thought so……..

 

[zeke]

Well gee whiz, you make it sound like he's some sort of genius.

Hmm you're right.

Leaving aside for the moment whether all that is true or not, let me tell you what you've neglected to mention.

He took over a team that was 6th overall and M&M were just 21 in his first season in charge. As expected, M&M improved a ton during his tenure (if we ignore the playoffs) but despite this improvement, and despite trading away a bushelful of futures, the team has basically stayed at the same level during the regular season (I'll ignore the one poor season since there were many injuries) and has been an abysmal failure in the playoff.

You're right about one thing - his record does indeed, speak for itself.

Agreed, he did inherit a team that: 1) had a solid #1G; 2) had a backup that had a career year; 3) went 7-1 in the shootout. All of which added up to a sexy but superficial 105pt season.

Unsurprisingly the shootout luck and career year backup goalieing didn't continue.

Somewhat surprisingly the #1G faceplanted spectacularly.

All of which makes it even more impressive that since he's had his own coach, the team has been a 108pt pace team - despite below average goaltending and no super shootout luck.

 

[Racer88]

Hmm you're right.




Agreed, he did inherit a team that: 1) had a solid #1G; 2) had a backup that had a career year; 3) went 7-1 in the shootout. All of which added up to a sexy but superficial 105pt season.

Unsurprisingly the shootout luck and career year backup goalieing didn't continue.

Somewhat surprisingly the #1G faceplanted spectacularly.

All of which makes it even more impressive that since he's had his own coach, the team has been a 108pt pace team - despite below average goaltending and no super shootout luck.

I think it was a superficial 108pt pace team propped up by Matthews unsustainable shooting percentage.

 

[fillkessel]

I’m not a big fan of some of the contracts. But I’m sure it’s not easy negotiating with players of that caliber. I blame the players more than dubas. A lot of people were stoked with the team we had going into playoffs. He did his job there. The boys just couldn’t pull through. I’m sure if we won the cup this thread would be “is dubas the greatest GM of all time?”

 

[notbias]

I think it was a superficial 108pt pace team propped up by Matthews unsustainable shooting percentage.

Lets see how you feel about this.

He shot 2.3% higher than his career average last year in the regular season, which is unsustainable?

He shot 13.3% lower than his career average last year in the playoffs, is that sustainable?

I am assuming your new stance on the playoffs is they got lucky and that level of play is not sustainable.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Hmm you're right.

Agreed, he did inherit a team that: 1) had a solid #1G; 2) had a backup that had a career year; 3) went 7-1 in the shootout. All of which added up to a sexy but superficial 105pt season.

Unsurprisingly the shootout luck and career year backup goalieing didn't continue.

Somewhat surprisingly the #1G faceplanted spectacularly.

All of which makes it even more impressive that since he's had his own coach, the team has been a 108pt pace team - despite below average goaltending and no super shootout luck.

I'm glad you are able to spin things in such a way as to be impressed. These are the same guys who you called "choking dogs", correct?

 

[Leaf Fans]

Who has said that?

It was implied by the poster who said the regular season doesn't matter.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I imagine that in the unlikely scenario that Dubas is fired, Leaf fans will continue cheering for the Leafs. That's not "turning on" the previous GM.

If they don't make significant progress this year I'm confident Dubas is gone, Shanny MIGHT stay but Dubas has to be running out of rope.

 

[Racer88]

Lets see how you feel about this.

He shot 2.3% higher than his career average last year in the regular season, which is unsustainable?

He shot 13.3% lower than his career average last year in the playoffs, is that sustainable?

I am assuming your new stance on the playoffs is they got lucky and that level of play is not sustainable.

No new stance……….a choke is a choke no matter what
If he was shooting 2.3% less in the playoffs I might consider luck to a very small degree but shooting 13.3% less is a total choke job

 

[Racer88]

If they don't make significant progress this year I'm confident Dubas is gone, Shanny MIGHT stay but Dubas has to be running out of rope.

I think the chain of heads rolling will be Keefe first followed by Dubas if no improvement by the coaching change and then finally Shanny if he is resistant to firing Dubas

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think the chain of heads rolling will be Keefe first followed by Dubas if no improvement by the coaching change and then finally Shanny if he is resistant to firing Dubas

That's possible too but you have to think jobs are on the line.

 

[Racer88]

That's possible too but you have to think jobs are on the line.

For sure. I absolutely think jobs are on the line.
One more choke job and there will be serious changes. MLSE will not put up with this crap forever

 

[Dekes For Days]

let me tell you what you've neglected to mention.
He took over a team that was 6th overall and M&M were just 21 in his first season in charge. As expected, M&M improved a ton during his tenure (if we ignore the playoffs) but despite this improvement, and despite trading away a bushelful of futures, the team has basically stayed at the same level during the regular season

Seems like you've "neglected to mention" some stuff too. He took over a team that was 7th in the league, not 6th (it's weird you didn't look at the tiebreaker since you've been sure to be very specific about us not being top-5 this year because of a tiebreaker) - a 105 point team propped up by the simultaneous combination of good health, unsustainable shootout luck, strong starting goaltending, and a 35+ waiver claim backup fluking into a career Vezina-level season. That team was set to lose significant depth to UFA in the offseason, and the pipeline had been sucked dry and gone unreplenished.

Now, with Matthews/Marner/Nylander off their ELCs and costing tens of millions of dollars more, and that starting goalie imploding, and without the health, shootout luck, or unsustainable backup goaltending, we've actually improved to 6th in the league, and won our division with a 113 point pace, on the back of strong, sustainable underlying metrics. Despite being in this competitive phase, we have had more draft picks under Dubas than the default, and our prospect pool is in good shape.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Maybe if Kadri wasn’t the only physical forward on the team things play out differently

I’ve been in his exact position before with the same results

I doubt it. He had other physical players on the team in Polak, Martin and Komorov. He cross checked a guy in the face. His previous suspension was boarding a player that was on his knees already. What about all his other suspensions for head shots, blindsides and running goalies? He's just an idiot. Just like Cooke. He could have challenged those players to fight like most physical players would do for their team mates. He can't seem to play on the right side of the line. He has Six total suspensions. 3 in playoffs.

 

[Racer88]

I doubt it. He had other physical players on the team in Polak, Martin and Komorov. He cross checked a guy in the face. His previous suspension was boarding a player that was on his knees already. What about all his other suspensions for head shots, blindsides and running goalies? He's just an idiot. Just like Cooke. He could have challenged those players to fight like most physical players would do for their team mates. He can't seem to play on the right side of the line. He has Six total suspensions. 3 in playoffs.

Ya, I miss him him too.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

No, not at all, the loss is mainly on the coach for playing Hyman on the top line (and other lineup screw-ups)
Hyman killed the offense, and sucked more than anyone on the team and blew tons of chances.
Matthews was always double teamed/shadowed because Mtl knew Hyman was completely worthless and not a threat to score on Price. he (Hyman) even blocked an open net sure goal shot (from Marner) in game 7 ...or was it gm 6, or both, because he blocked a few of our own shots because he SUCKS in front of the net.
I am thankful that the Oilers overpaid him, and he is gone.

Thats fair that Hyman wasn't a threat or that a lot of plays could have been finished by someone with more skill but whatever line he played on seemed to get elevated. Also, how many goals were scored because of his puck retrieval skills or being able to keep the play in the offensive zone because of his relentlessness? Almost offsets it.

Having said that. Im glad we didnt over pay him and someone else did. His play style won't age well and I wouldn't have given him more than 3 years at around 4M. I look forward to having some of our young talent like Amriov who might be able to be Matthews left flank for years to come. With our cap, having young players like he and Robertson in the top 6 on ELCs is gonna be huge

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It seems the same fans telling me "Ovy didn't win a cup till his like 15th season, have patience" are now the same people complaining that (lol) our core didn't win a cup when they were teenagers due to our "bad gm" at the time.

Can't make this stuff up.

 

[notbias]

No new stance……….a choke is a choke no matter what
If he was shooting 2.3% less in the playoffs I might consider luck to a very small degree but shooting 13.3% less is a total choke job

This is insanity.
Small sample size + large outlier = choke
Large sample size + small deviation = unsustainable